September 2016 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Yup! Local mets have 60s all the way til Sunday now and more clouds than sun.

Right now im on my deck grilling bacon wrapped chicken breasts and watching the cloud deck move in from the L over the Great Lakes. Love it.

Sounds delicious!  Protein stacked with a bit of bacon love.

[Niko]

This ULL will be with us till Sunday. UGH! Talk about a soggy, wet, coolish, Autumn type weather. Models are predicted over 3" of rain IMBY, but I think that are overdoing it. If this was winter, look-out. Some areas would be in a winter wonderland thanks to this ULL.

[Tom]

This ULL will be with us till Sunday. UGH! Talk about a soggy, wet, coolish, Autumn type weather. Models are predicted over 3" of rain IMBY, but I think that are overdoing it. If this was winter, look-out. Some areas would be in a winter wonderland thanks to this ULL.

I know, right!  It's very rare to see a cut-off ULL to spin for days.  I recall a number of years back, maybe it was 2009-10, where we saw a system as such spin and dumb snow near the Lakes/OV region.  Hope to see one of these systems during the cold season.

 

ULL is currently spinning near the southern tip of LM...I'm currently under the "eye" of the system with some sunshine actually...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/illinois/satellite-vis?play=1

[jaster220]

Pretty good amount of precip showing up near the Lakes through the weekend...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092712/gfs_apcpn_ncus_23.png

 

So far, for the extreme SWMI region, it's been a dud -  with precip skipping right over us.

 

This ULL will be with us till Sunday. UGH! Talk about a soggy, wet, coolish, Autumn type weather. Models are predicted over 3" of rain IMBY, but I think that are overdoing it. If this was winter, look-out. Some areas would be in a winter wonderland thanks to this ULL.

 

Yeah, SMI would look like NMI that's for sure. Feb '86 featured a cut-off spinning over Lk. Superior and Battle Creek got over 2 feet of snow with the help of Lake Michigan over maybe a 3 day period.

 

I know, right!  It's very rare to see a cut-off ULL to spin for days.  I recall a number of years back, maybe it was 2009-10, where we saw a system as such spin and dumb snow near the Lakes/OV region.  Hope to see one of these systems during the cold season.

 

ULL is currently spinning near the southern tip of LM...I'm currently under the "eye" of the system with some sunshine actually...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/illinois/satellite-vis?play=1

 

I was around here then and don't recall any dumping via an ULL spinning. Can you dig for a better date? Curious, cuz I don't remember one since I came to Marshall in 2002.

[Tom]

@ Jaster, tbh, I can't recall when it was, but I know it was within the 4 years in a row dating back to 2007-2008 through 2010-2011 where ORD received 50"+ of snow those years.  It was a snowy streak and during those years we had blocking around which helped slow and spin systems in the region..sometimes for a day or two.  The one we have going now is very unusual to spin for 3-4 days straight.

[jaster220]

@ Jaster, tbh, I can't recall when it was, but I know it was within the 4 years in a row dating back to 2007-2008 through 2010-2011 where ORD received 50"+ of snow those years.  It was a snowy streak and during those years we had blocking around which helped slow and spin systems in the region..sometimes for a day or two.  The one we have going now is very unusual to spin for 3-4 days straight.

 

Still drawing a "blank" so if it happened it somehow nailed Chi-town but not over my way. Didn't the Christmas '09 Bliz storm kinda stall out and as the cold air wrapped into the backside y'all got like 8-12" bonus snow? Not sure it was cut-off and not just an ULL, so I don't think you meant that, did you?

[Tom]

Still drawing a "blank" so if it happened it somehow nailed Chi-town but not over my way. Didn't the Christmas '09 Bliz storm kinda stall out and as the cold air wrapped into the backside y'all got like 8-12" bonus snow? Not sure it was cut-off and not just an ULL, so I don't think you meant that, did you?

That was a "surprise" snow for sure.  NW burbs got dumped on with 8-12", ORD ended up with close to 6" if I recall correctly.  That was very high ratio snowfall as well.  I believe it was above 25:1 ratios!  It wasn't the storm that I was referring to.  Maybe it will come to me down the road and I'll bring it up.

 

Meantime, 12z Euro op is way east of GFS, tracks east of Cuba and then north near the Bahamas.  Quite the variance!   Meanwhile, 12z EPS is slowing it down drastically and tracking it into the central Gulf region.  I don't think the models will have a clue for another 3-4 days.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092812/ecmwf_mslpa_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016092812/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_namer_11.png

[Tom]

Numerous waterspouts have been reported today over Lake Michigan.  NOAA reports there have been 8 thus far...I think that total will go up with this line of storms heading towards NE IL.  Gosh, only if this was Winter!  RPM model is painting 2.4" of rain for ORD by Sat pm.  Lake enhancement is definitely lighting up totals into the WI/IL shoreline.

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20160928.2228.gif

[Tom]

Pretty neat experience over here.  I don't think I've ever had experienced such a strong line of storms that formed off the lake and headed inland from Lake Enhancement.  Clouds got really dark, almost shelf cloud-looking, with an impressive gust of wind out ahead of the line of storms that were producing claps of thunder.

[Tom]

Couldn't ask for better wind convergence over NE IL to produce lake effect rain showers!  Only if....Winter was here...if I saw this during the cold season, I'd be drooling over it...

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-90.76,40.66,3000/loc=-87.121,42.228

 

Still getting hit with intense intermittent showers...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20160929.0243.gif

[Tom]

Saw this tweet from the NWS in Chicago...pea size hail fell in Niles, IL (city next door)

 

 

 

Strong lake effect T-storms Wed evening produced nearly 500 lightning strikes in just 1 hour! Also produced hail, 50 mph winds, heavy rain!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is a video of a water spout from yesterday...just a few miles offshore from the city...

 

https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/781170866461827072

[Tom]

Here are the latest JMA weeklies...

 

 

[Niko]

Its is definitely raw out there today. Holding in the upper 50s with wind and on and off rain.

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Yeah, those Leh rain showers would've been epic were this the cold season. Even over my way, Marshall made up for lost time over night as rain began a little after 9 pm and we've picked up around 1" qpf by 7 am this morning. Nice little storm in the dead of winter, and a strange way to get one at that. Your LRC brings this back, right??    

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Yeah, those Leh rain showers would've been epic were this the cold season. Even over my way, Marshall made up for lost time over night as rain began a little after 9 pm and we've picked up around 1" qpf by 7 am this morning. Nice little storm in the dead of winter, and a strange way to get one at that. Your LRC brings this back, right??    

This storm is in the midst of a massive transition form the "old" LRC to the "new" LRC.  It's hard to say if we will see this pattern repeat again.  Will need to wait until sometime in very late November if this particular system show's up somehow, otherwise, we'll have to see if any ULL's brew up in Oct/Nov.

[james1976]

Sunny and upper 70s here today. Way warmer than what was forecasted. Feels like summer.

[james1976]

Got my furnace serviced today. Bring on the cold!

[Tom]

Ending the month with a bang...Atlantic basin behemoth!  Incredibly, this has become a Cat 5 with 160mph winds.  Interestingly, this has become the strongest Hurricane in the Atlantic basin since 2007.

 

 

 

 

 

Here's another tidbit of information...ORD will go down as the 13th warmest month since 1871 and the warmest since Sept 1978!  The Winter of '78-'79 Chicago got hammered with its record 89.7" of snow.  

[Niko]

Whoever is in the path of this monster in the Caribbean will suffer catastrophic damage. The EC needs to closely monitor this hurricane from Florida to NE. I would not be surprise if it gains more strength to near or over 180mph+. The waters down there are very warm and are even averaging above normal. Major fuel right there!

[Niko]

In the meantime, over 6inches of rain fell in the Detroit area over the past 3 days. Lots of flooding going on. A bit less up north where I am in the Macomb County where as much as over 3inches has fallen thus far.

[westMJim]

The cloudy, cool,  wet last few days of September 2016 took down mean temperature but still ended up at 66.4° (+3.6°) and that will be good for 7th warmest September on record here in GR.

[Tom]

Overall, September ended up being much above normal from the Rockies and points east.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

 

 

stripe of above normal precip fell from the southern Plains to the north...

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPDeptUS.png

 

 

Looking back at the models, the trough was forecast to be in the central CONUS but ended up being a little farther west.  However, they handled the precip forecast a little better,

[gabel23]

Finished the month off with 4.10" of precip. Pretty wet month, I still have some of my potatoes to get out of the ground and the soil is loaded with moisture. 

[jaster220]

Overall, September ended up being much above normal from the Rockies and points east.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

 

 

stripe of above normal precip fell from the southern Plains to the north...

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPDeptUS.png

 

 

Looking back at the models, the trough was forecast to be in the central CONUS but ended up being a little farther west.  However, they handled the precip forecast a little better,

 

 

You need to do a snapshot capture or these continue to roll and now show October values to date. 

[Tom]

You need to do a snapshot capture or these continue to roll and now show October values to date. 

I literally just noticed that 3 minutes ago!  Ha 

[OKwx2k4]

Here's something cool. September 2016 vs 3 analogs.

 

September 2016

 

1983, 1978, and 2010 (3 top years picked around September 5th).

 

 

 

 

 

 

The resemblance is quite sufficient for me. Right on track.

[jaster220]

@ Okwx

 

Those are some really strong correlations, eh?  I noticed in that early winter forecast link I posted from S. Indiana that he also included 1981-82 in his analogs. When you think back, it's amazing how that season featured the mega cold Jan '82 (I think it set a new all-time record low for Chicago of -25º), followed by the Mega-Nino of '82-83, followed by the pendulum swing all the way back to the record cold of Dec '83 setting yet a colder all-time low of -27º at Chicago!  

 

This would be like deja-vu all over again if your analogs are proven correct. Amazing parallels in my book.

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx

 

Those are some really strong correlations, eh? I noticed in that early winter forecast link I posted from S. Indiana that he also included 1981-82 in his analogs. When you think back, it's amazing how that season featured the mega cold Jan '82 (I think it set a new all-time record low for Chicago of -25º), followed by the Mega-Nino of '82-83, followed by the pendulum swing all the way back to the record cold of Dec '83 setting yet a colder all-time low of -27º at Chicago!

 

This would be like deja-vu all over again if your analogs are proven correct. Amazing parallels in my book.

Yeah. I just entered them in when I had a few spare minutes and was shocked. I've been stuck on those years pretty hard since mid-August and couldn't really believe they matched so well. If they hold up again this month, which I think they will, then hardcore winter begins for all of us the last week of November. Even running 20 analog years through with what I had put December and January solidly below normal for the central US. I'm 90 percent certain in what I have for the last 2/3 of Autumn and for winter. The east coast may squeeze out one more hurricane after Matthew but after that, they're done. I just need to quit rushing things and let the next 6 weeks go by. :-)