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September 2016 Observations and Discussions


Tom

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@ Jaster, that storm which you posted on is making an impact in the Rockies region with some vigor!  Check out some wind gusts at the Wasatch Mtns!  They are also expected 6-12" in the higher elevations

 

...Wasatch Mountains I-80 North...
Ogden Peak - 9570 ft 4 PM Thu 101 MPH

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I'm starting to see what could be a pretty big flip in the pattern during the 1st week of October.  After a brief "cooler" period (welcomed) this coming week near the Lakes/Midwest region, it'll warm up quickly for the following weekend.  However, there has been more GEFS ensemble support over the last day or two for the western N.A/AK ridge to blossom right around the 5th/6th of October.  The Aleutian Low becomes established south of the Aleutiansl, in a similar fashion as it did in September, which has cooled off the waters quite a bit over the last month.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

What is interesting prior to this, a big trough digs into west/southwestern region by Day 10.  To my knowledge, this is not part of the repeating current LRC cycle, which means, this could very well be the beginning of the new 2016-17 LRC.  Typically, we see the new LRC cycle begin between Oct 1st-7th.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016092400/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_44.png

 

 

Check out the blocking over the Arctic that develops which may suggest a -AO pattern.  Looking out farther, we see the type of hemispheric flow that was common back in 2013-14 if you recall.  For an ensemble run, it is suggesting to look out for a big punch of cold Autumn air. Still early in the game, but I can sense something is brewing.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016092400/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_61.png

 

 

Taking a gander at the AO ensemble run, it may be showing a dip right around the end of the 1st week of October.  Let's see how this all trends.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

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Another intriguing development of note, as the PV strengthens over the next 10 days, the placement at 10mb places the trajectory right over parts of N.A. and Europe by Day 10.

 

Day 5...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f120.png

 

Day 10...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f240.png

 

Could this give the GEFS 500mb pattern support Week 2???  Cross Polar Flow in early October???  Crazy if that happens.

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Good stuff as usual Tom. That's a lot of support for a central US trough. The Euro has gone a little bit whacky the past few days (ensembles look as whacky and random as the CFS) so something is definitely up right now. Looking forward to seeing if the Weeklies next week have a bit of a better general idea. CFS does continue its general trend of snowy over Canada and in several runs as far south as me by November 10th. I have my doubts about the snow making it that far south but it wouldn't be unheard of. I actually have a November snowfall average here of .5-.9 depending on the location used and 2001 I believe it actually snowed during Thanksgiving week and then roared on all the way through December. I'm ready for the changes now though. 90 degrees in late September is terrible.

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Good stuff as usual Tom. That's a lot of support for a central US trough. The Euro has gone a little bit whacky the past few days (ensembles look as whacky and random as the CFS) so something is definitely up right now. Looking forward to seeing if the Weeklies next week have a bit of a better general idea. CFS does continue its general trend of snowy over Canada and in several runs as far south as me by November 10th. I have my doubts about the snow making it that far south but it wouldn't be unheard of. I actually have a November snowfall average here of .5-.9 depending on the location used and 2001 I believe it actually snowed during Thanksgiving week and then roared on all the way through December. I'm ready for the changes now though. 90 degrees in late September is terrible.

I bet your done with the 90's!  I'm over the humid conditions.  I mean, I can handle upper 70's/low 80's with low dew points, but overall, a drier airmass is enjoyable this time of year.  Once we head into October, I love to experience the cool downs as we head deeper into Autumn.  This coming week will be perfection in my book.  A couple days in the upper 60's and a few days in low 70's...

 

 

Gives it more of a seasonal "feel".... and by Halloween, even a taste of a snowflake or two!

 

 

Regarding the CFS, it's been doing pretty D**n good sniffing out the 500mb pattern in October.  I've been following it since the beginning of July and it hasn't really showed me any big deviations from it's general trend once we got into September.   

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At Okwx, do you have an EPO map???  When I took a look at the Pacific SST anomaly, I couldn't help but notice how much cooler the waters are this year compared to last year as well as the previous 2.  This could lead to the Aleutian Low "hand off" and create a storm track into Cali this year.  Clear -EPO signal...just a thought...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Last year...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.9.21.2015.gif

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I don't have an EPO map. I have thought about that a lot since last year though and just believe that there has to be a clear cut anomaly pattern in the north and east pacific for it to enhance the driver, so to speak. Warm, cool, warm, etc. Last year there was no pattern at all, just a mega torch in the Pacific and all the way across the US.

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Over the last few runs, the GFS is lighting up Canada with snow!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092500/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

 

GEFS are increasingly signaling a -AO...good sign for the new LRC pattern as blocking develops.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

NAO also doesn't pop to much positive...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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I'm heading out to try some pre-frontal Muskey fishin' on the Chain today!  

 

Both GFS/Euro on board with temps at or slightly below normal this entire coming week.  Models have had a real tough time with the -NAO pattern developing.  Earlier in the week, the Euro went from a torch next weekend, to near normal temps now, with the GFS also creeping in that direction.  I don't mind at all.  

 

I've been watching the news and the flooding happening in IA/MN/WI looks so bad!  I feel for those who are dealing with it.

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Good luck with the fishing today!

 

As I sit on my porch this morning and enjoy the sunrise, I saw my first flock of geese fly by. The real feeling of fall is on its way for sure. All signs in the atmosphere point to large changes coming in the pretty near future.

When I read this while I was on the lake, there were geese all over flying around!  We struck out today, tough day on the lake...although, we had 2 follow ups but nothing on the line.  Hopefully this week's cool down can spark some excitement in the fishing dept.

 

BTW, can you paint a better 500mb horseshoe block over the top???  Seriously, that is as good as it gets.  In the Winter, that is money.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092512/gfs_z500a_namer_46.png

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Down to 58F this morning with some low stratus clouds about to exit the region.  This feels pretty nippy after yesterday's high of 85.  From mid July warmth and now back to reality.  It's been interesting watching the models since last weekend how they would handle the cut-off low.  This system literally will meander around for an entire week near the Lakes/OV region.

 

On Wed, there may be a good setup for Lake Enhanced rain showers near Lake Michigan on both sides of the Lake.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016092600/namconus_ref_ncus_43.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016092600/namconus_ref_ncus_49.png

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My grid has 61º for a high on Wed. I could see us stuck @ 59º though with that ULL spinning and delivering the first "true" chilly autumn day. It'll be a rude awakening after this endless warmth for sure.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My grid has 61º for a high on Wed. I could see us stuck @ 59º though with that ULL spinning and delivering the first "true" chilly autumn day. It'll be a rude awakening after this endless warmth for sure.

High rez models starting to pick up on enhanced showers off the lake.  It'll be a raw and wet day locally on Wednesday.

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Its going to be a chilly week indeed. My highs are mainly in the 60s all week and lows in the 40s. There is a chance that my highs on Wednesday could remain in the upper 50s with that ULL. Talk about raw and gloomy.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The ULL to effect our region for the next few days would be a dream in the Winter on this side of the lake.  Strong NNE winds for over 72 hours and lake effect showers enhanced off the lake.  I hope we can see something like this during the Winter months.  Not only here, but parts of WI/MI/IN/OH are going to see the effects as well.

 

GEFS still on board with a -AO...right as we flip the calendar into October...interesting

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

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They maintain the cooldown through the 1st 10 to 14 days of October and then gradually wash out to warm over the entire US. The west gets really snowy by the end but the east doesn't and Canada is still filled with snow. From what I can see they try to put that major trough down in the west but I'm of the camp that I believe the GFS wins the fight there. GFS has been kicking the ECMWF's butt over North America lately so that's my pick.

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attachicon.giftoday.TAIR.min.grad-1.png

 

Coldest morning since April. Loving it!

 

Wow, this cold really did plunge down the plains more so. Only dropped to 50º 49º in Marshall just before 8 am 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just went through today's 15 day ensemble members on the Euro. There's not any consistency at all beyond day 4 or 5. That's usually a good sign that it's struggling to grab the pattern so we're kinda in wait and see mode for a few more days. What we do know is that there is a massive trough coming. My money is definitely on it being in the central US with the hurricane smashing Mexico or getting shunted out into the Atlantic.

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The past couple of days have been very breezy.  Leaves flying around, dried out branches are even getting ripped off the trees and even some leaves are starting to turn color.  Certainly feels like Autumn out there.  This entire week is setting the Autumn mood, esp tomorrow, when it'll be breezy, chilly and wet.

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Local mets are extending the streak of 60's now through the weekend. Blocking is having an impact for sure. Mother Nature has flipped the script (even though nighttime lows are a bit above normal).

Yup! Local mets have 60s all the way til Sunday now and more clouds than sun.

Right now im on my deck grilling bacon wrapped chicken breasts and watching the cloud deck move in from the L over the Great Lakes. Love it.

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