Clinton Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: @Clinton @OKwx2k4 @jaster220 @Niko...I can't help but imagine what this "Texarkana Track" will do come Winter when it interacts with the Polar Jet....if there is more high lat blocking around, esp a nice west-based -NAO, lookout! This is the 2nd storm in 5 days to take an almost identical track. Pretty fascinating pattern. I have light rain falling this morning, so far .20 has fallen. Very cool to see the bands rotate in from the east as I'm in the comma head part of the storm. Good place to be in the Winter! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 @Tom Looking at the current surface map over my morning cup of java and seeing it thinking OMG if this were winter I'd be staring a huge snowstorm in the face! Your post with the vort maps sure would make that BAMwx snow-cast a really good call. We've been enjoying "mild" temp's regime, right? While it has been a gorgeous couple days around here, but with the fog delaying the sun's effects we've been mostly in the 30s/40s/50s aside from a few hours in peak heating when we pop into the low 60s. Went to Lansing for dinner last evening and the car thermo was 65F into the blazing late pm sunshine (trees are mostly brown to bare - so no real color show to be had). A few hrs later was shocked to see a 43F on the way home just west of here in Washtenaw Cnty, and indeed I see Ann Arbor hit 29F near midnight. That's quite the plummet for us, especially pre-pumpkin day. KYIP hit 32F this morning and 31F yesterday in the +FOG conditions. The UHI effect has been stunning these past 2 days with places like Detroit City Airport and Grosse Ilse Airport being 12-15 degs warmer than the places I've cited. Having already had 4-5 freezes to this point here in Canton, this autumn is about as flipped from last year as you can get. I remember the never-ending summer lasted til the 3rd week in October before we slowly stepped down. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, Clinton said: I have light rain falling this morning, so far .20 has fallen. Very cool to see the bands rotate in from the east as I'm in the comma head part of the storm. Good place to be in the Winter! #THINKSNOW! Now residing in an area notoriously plagued by both WTOD and mixing issues, I'm going to be geeked at any prospects of a snow event that can avoid those buzz-killing problems. I'll take a solid 4-6" all-snow event over a larger slushy mixy mess like we had last winter. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, jaster220 said: #THINKSNOW! Now residing in an area notoriously plagued by both WTOD and mixing issues, I'm going to be geeked at any prospects of a snow event that can avoid those buzz-killing problems. I'll take a solid 4-6" all-snow event over a larger slushy mixy mess like we had last winter. This is the type of system to get excited about. I always like coming back to these threads over the Winter to see how the models handled these storms. Something to keep in mind this 2nd storm really wasn't modeled to give either one of us much moisture, now it looks like we both may receive .50 qpf maybe more for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: This is the type of system to get excited about. I always like coming back to these threads over the Winter to see how the models handled these storms. Something to keep in mind this 2nd storm really wasn't modeled to give either one of us much moisture, now it looks like we both may receive .50 qpf maybe more for you. Agreed 100% - a few days ago this was under the radar and given 40% chance of rain in my grids. I'd love this kind of surprise/trend come winter. Been too long since we were talking about surprise over-achievers around SMI. Last Feb's fake Big Dog by my office really burned. I still cannot believe how long they rode those 12-18" maps and forecast, just to have the 1st wave miss NW (too warm for the metro), and the 2nd essentially stay far enough SE to stamp a big red FAIL on top of their maps. And for anybody with an eye to wx history for this far SE corner of The Mitt, they would know that the final outcome had like an 80% likelihood of playing out, especially with the marginal temp regime that plagued last winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Come on cold air! (lol) DTX: The aforementioned upper level low pressure will open and shift into the region this evening into tonight as another southern stream shortwave kicks east from the central Rockies. A large dry layer of air in place will limit rain showers initially this evening, but as time progresses, rain showers will become likely and persist through the overnight hours. Additional showers will then overspread the area on Monday as this second southern stream shortwave tracks quickly in the vicinity from the central plains. Rain showers from this second system will persist into Monday evening before ending overnight. Thereafter, dry weather is expected for much of the week before another strong wave within the southern stream encroaches by the Friday/Saturday time frame. For DTW...Showers and low ceilings likely holding off until after midnight. High confidence in a period of IFR conditions late tonight into Monday morning, with a low chance of brief period of LIFR. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 10 hours ago, Tom said: @Clinton @OKwx2k4 @jaster220 @Niko...I can't help but imagine what this "Texarkana Track" will do come Winter when it interacts with the Polar Jet....if there is more high lat blocking around, esp a nice west-based -NAO, lookout! This is the 2nd storm in 5 days to take an almost identical track. Pretty fascinating pattern. I was thinking the same thing. What a beauty of a track for winter. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 11 hours ago, Niko said: I was thinking the same thing. What a beauty of a track for winter. Still getting light rain here from this system. Nice suprise! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: Still getting light rain here from this system. Nice suprise! Isn't that a great gift from nature? Let that precip soak into the soils bc there will be more where that came from. Cut-Off Low's always seem to throw surprises. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 10 hours ago, Tom said: Isn't that a great gift from nature? Let that precip soak into the soils bc there will be more where that came from. Cut-Off Low's always seem to throw surprises. DTW just shy of 1/2" with more hopefully on tap for the overnight. Not on the comma head side like Clinton, but getting any liquid is a huge help for our hurting hydro. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 On 10/31/2022 at 5:50 AM, Clinton said: Still getting light rain here from this system. Nice suprise! Congrats! I luv a weather surprise especially when it has to do w/ snow during winter. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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