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10/23 - 10/30 Series of Storms/Cutters


Tom
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I'm up to 1.08", so I'm happy.  We should get a few more tenths.

I also received 0.11" later yesterday through this morning, so that counts, too.

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season snowfall: 16.6"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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30 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Had a bad jumpscare this morning with 4 Tornadoes! Including two just to the south of my School! The one in Mustang is the strongest compared to the rest of them. 

i have a close friend who lives in Mustang, the sirens never went off. 

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This looks SO good. Raining hard right now. Thunder and lightning is awesome.  
64 and a low tonight in upper 40’s.  
Talk about welcomed. Rivers and lakes will be grateful.  
 

Edit:  Terrell, east of Dallas, spotted a tornado last night. The storm picked up intensity as it swept across No Tx. We received a 2nd 1” rain.  Came down in buckets   


 

D66E9764-450F-43E2-A4ED-BC893C5F8013.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1.75 inches as of now, looking at the radar it would appear that the main storm may lift up west of where the models have been taking it.  I think there is a good chance of some additional rainfall for KC and mby late tonight and tomorrow morning.   Snow is being reported in Amarillo TX btw.

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It appears I will finish with about 1.38" late today and a 2-day total of about 1.50".  This is easily my biggest rain event since June.

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season snowfall: 16.6"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Here are some estimated rainfall totals for my area from this storm and Lezaks thoughts as it pertains to the LRC.

image.thumb.png.8ac9346df9f051a14d34e39b4c8694e4.png

"this main storm is tracking just southeast of KC. When this part of the pattern returns during the winter, this will likely be a large area of snow"

image.thumb.png.04edbb8c83fa9b7bf357681d42f35cc4.png

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Nature is about to "Light it Up"...both 0z GEFS/EPS agree that it's going to get active for the heartland of the Nation.  Those that have been on the sidelines, may now be Front & Center come 1st week of NOV.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

0z EPS...

image.gif

 

Nice to see the C/S Plains drought stricken region in the AN precip anomalies...

image.png

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Nature is about to "Light it Up"...both 0z GEFS/EPS agree that it's going to get active for the heartland of the Nation.  Those that have been on the sidelines, may now be Front & Center come 1st week of NOV.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

0z EPS...

image.gif

 

Nice to see the C/S Plains drought stricken region in the AN precip anomalies...

image.png

New LRC is going to wipe out the drought in Oklahoma and North Texas. 

image.thumb.png.2cedc5150ff8c7ce89274d8db24b9c98.png

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Cute..

 

2022-10-26 10am Surf.jpg

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here comes the last in a series of storms during this "parade"...I recall having conversations with some locals in Park City, UT while I was visiting back in early Aug and they mentioned the enhanced snowfall totals from The Great Salt Lake.  Well, the first LES of the season is producing some light snow showers off the lake!

image.gif

 

 

 

image.png

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Oh yeah. Bring it! 
Looks like a typical Tx 2 Step Hook ‘em Soaker.  
Lots of wind, water, and warnings.  
Usually makes for lively entertainment.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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11 hours ago, Andie said:

Oh yeah. Bring it! 
Looks like a typical Tx 2 Step Hook ‘em Soaker.  
Lots of wind, water, and warnings.  
Usually makes for lively entertainment.  

This evenings Euro is a real soaker for Dallas.  This storm is fascinating with how is rolls down the Rockies  to the Gulf and then lifts almost due north, it even throughs some light totals in my area.

1667217600-0NreLcVvKUo.png

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Yeah!  We’ve got loads of rolling thunder and heavy rain this morning.  
Slowly replenishing our lakes and fields greening up in time for fall.  

With luck we’ll keep regular rain to help farmers/ranchers with their fields.   This should help food prices and local farmers markets.  I’m hoping for a wet winter, -maybe without the ice! 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Future cycles of most of these storms are pretty much lit for NE Ok back throughout the red river and on through Andie's backyard.

Iceresistance should have a great time later on, too. Gonna be a fun year.

I saw that, 11/3 could be a severe weather event per GFS consistency.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Since midnight I’ve received about 1.4” of rain. Lots of thunder. Really enjoyed the whole atmosphere after this drought. 😄

More likely to come today. The fun’s just starting.  I just hope we all avoid hail and tornadoes.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

This mornings GFS develops enough of a comma head to wrap around nearly a 1/2 inch of rain for me on Sunday evening.  Not a huge rainstorm for the Mid-West but a nice little soaker, it even gets some light rain into SE Michigan near @jaster220 and @Niko.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

That is some welcome needed rain. Looks like a wet Halloween nite for those trick or treaters.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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6 hours ago, Clinton said:

This mornings GFS develops enough of a comma head to wrap around nearly a 1/2 inch of rain for me on Sunday evening.  Not a huge rainstorm for the Mid-West but a nice little soaker, it even gets some light rain into SE Michigan near @jaster220 and @Niko.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

We'll take it! Thx for keeping us in mind up here Clinton

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Clinton @OKwx2k4 @jaster220 @Niko...I can't help but imagine what this "Texarkana Track" will do come Winter when it interacts with the Polar Jet....if there is more high lat blocking around, esp a nice west-based -NAO, lookout!  This is the 2nd storm in 5 days to take an almost identical track.  Pretty fascinating pattern.

 

 

image.gif

 

 

image.gif

 

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Clinton @OKwx2k4 @jaster220 @Niko...I can't help but imagine what this "Texarkana Track" will do come Winter when it interacts with the Polar Jet....if there is more high lat blocking around, esp a nice west-based -NAO, lookout!  This is the 2nd storm in 5 days to take an almost identical track.  Pretty fascinating pattern.

 

 

image.gif

 

 

image.gif

 

 

I have light rain falling this morning, so far .20 has fallen.  Very cool to see the bands rotate in from the east as I'm in the comma head part of the storm.  Good place to be in the Winter!

Local Radar Image

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@Tom

Looking at the current surface map over my morning cup of java and seeing it thinking OMG if this were winter I'd be staring a huge snowstorm in the face! Your post with the vort maps sure would make that BAMwx snow-cast a really good call. 

We've been enjoying "mild" temp's regime, right? While it has been a gorgeous couple days around here, but with the fog delaying the sun's effects we've been mostly in the 30s/40s/50s aside from a few hours in peak heating when we pop into the low 60s. Went to Lansing for dinner last evening and the car thermo was 65F into the blazing late pm sunshine (trees are mostly brown to bare - so no real color show to be had). A few hrs later was shocked to see a 43F on the way home just west of here in Washtenaw Cnty, and indeed I see Ann Arbor hit 29F near midnight. That's quite the plummet for us, especially pre-pumpkin day. KYIP hit 32F this morning and 31F yesterday in the +FOG conditions. The UHI effect has been stunning these past 2 days with places like Detroit City Airport and Grosse Ilse Airport being 12-15 degs warmer than the places I've cited. Having already had 4-5 freezes to this point here in Canton, this autumn is about as flipped from last year as you can get. I remember the never-ending summer lasted til the 3rd week in October before we slowly stepped down. 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I have light rain falling this morning, so far .20 has fallen.  Very cool to see the bands rotate in from the east as I'm in the comma head part of the storm.  Good place to be in the Winter!

Local Radar Image

#THINKSNOW! 

Now residing in an area notoriously plagued by both WTOD and mixing issues, I'm going to be geeked at any prospects of a snow event that can avoid those buzz-killing problems. I'll take a solid 4-6" all-snow event over a larger slushy mixy mess like we had last winter. 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

#THINKSNOW! 

Now residing in an area notoriously plagued by both WTOD and mixing issues, I'm going to be geeked at any prospects of a snow event that can avoid those buzz-killing problems. I'll take a solid 4-6" all-snow event over a larger slushy mixy mess like we had last winter. 

This is the type of system to get excited about.  I always like coming back to these threads over the Winter to see how the models handled these storms.  Something to keep in mind this 2nd storm really wasn't modeled to give either one of us much moisture, now it looks like we both may receive .50 qpf maybe more for you.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

This is the type of system to get excited about.  I always like coming back to these threads over the Winter to see how the models handled these storms.  Something to keep in mind this 2nd storm really wasn't modeled to give either one of us much moisture, now it looks like we both may receive .50 qpf maybe more for you.

Agreed 100% - a few days ago this was under the radar and given 40% chance of rain in my grids. I'd love this kind of surprise/trend come winter. Been too long since we were talking about surprise over-achievers around SMI. Last Feb's fake Big Dog by my office really burned. I still cannot believe how long they rode those 12-18" maps and forecast, just to have the 1st wave miss NW (too warm for the metro), and the 2nd essentially stay far enough SE to stamp a big red FAIL on top of their maps. And for anybody with an eye to wx history for this far SE corner of The Mitt, they would know that the final outcome had like an 80% likelihood of playing out, especially with the marginal temp regime that plagued last winter. 

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Come on cold air! (lol)

DTX:

The aforementioned upper
level low pressure will open and shift into the region this evening
into tonight as another southern stream shortwave kicks east from
the central Rockies. A large dry layer of air in place will limit
rain showers initially this evening, but as time progresses, rain
showers will become likely and persist through the overnight hours.

Additional showers will then overspread the area on Monday as this
second southern stream shortwave tracks quickly in the vicinity from
the central plains. Rain showers from this second system will
persist into Monday evening before ending overnight. Thereafter, dry
weather is expected for much of the week before another strong wave
within the southern stream encroaches by the Friday/Saturday time
frame.

 

For DTW...Showers and low ceilings likely holding off until after
midnight. High confidence in a period of IFR conditions late
tonight into Monday morning, with a low chance of brief period of
LIFR.

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton @OKwx2k4 @jaster220 @Niko...I can't help but imagine what this "Texarkana Track" will do come Winter when it interacts with the Polar Jet....if there is more high lat blocking around, esp a nice west-based -NAO, lookout!  This is the 2nd storm in 5 days to take an almost identical track.  Pretty fascinating pattern.

 

 

image.gif

 

 

image.gif

 

 

I was thinking the same thing. What a beauty of a track for winter.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Still getting light rain here from this system.  Nice suprise!

Isn't that a great gift from nature?  Let that precip soak into the soils bc there will be more where that came from.  Cut-Off Low's always seem to throw surprises.

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

Isn't that a great gift from nature?  Let that precip soak into the soils bc there will be more where that came from.  Cut-Off Low's always seem to throw surprises.

DTW just shy of 1/2" with more hopefully on tap for the overnight. Not on the comma head side like Clinton, but getting any liquid is a huge help for our hurting hydro. 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 10/31/2022 at 5:50 AM, Clinton said:

Still getting light rain here from this system.  Nice suprise!

Congrats! I luv a weather surprise especially when it has to do w/ snow during winter.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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