September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Weather101]

I am thinking slightly cooler than normal. I might take you on the bet. SEA makes me a bit nervous, though.

SEA will mess you over lol

[Front Ranger]

I am thinking slightly cooler than normal. I might take you on the bet. SEA makes me a bit nervous, though.

 

Make Tim go with OLM. Go with SEA and the dice is loaded in his favor.

[Front Ranger]

Feels like summer on Lake Sammamish right now. Lake is packed too.

 

Too bad it will be dark in less than 90 minutes.

[Front Ranger]

The region is massively overdue for a warm September.

 

Only 2 years since a record warm one!

[snow_wizard]

Make Tim go with OLM. Go with SEA and the dice is loaded in his favor.

 

That's for sure.

[TT-SEA]

Too bad it will be dark in less than 90 minutes.

Still an awesome time.

[Deweydog]

Too bad it will be dark in less than 90 minutes.

Sun angles definitely seem to be taking shape.

[Deweydog]

It appears PDX may have west winds at 9 mph with gusts to 17 mph for the rest of time.  

 

Not good for cold outflow fans.  

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS ensemble is the coolest yet for early October with a mean of 2C on a couple of days over SEA.  A few members starting to go below the zero line as well.

[TT-SEA]

Good contrail day...

 

 

 

Sun angle still good enough to get a little burnt out there...  water was great for swimming as well.    Around 70 depending on the location.

[TT-SEA]

Nice +8 at SEA today... largest departure from normal for the month.

[Jesse]

DP up to 64 at PDX. Pretty crazy how steadily it has risen this afternoon. It was in the upper 40s as recently as 3pm.

[Jesse]

The region is massively overdue for a warm September.

 

We are at the end of every August.

[BLI snowman]

DP up to 64 at PDX. Pretty crazy how steadily it has risen this afternoon. It was in the upper 40s as recently as 3pm.

Warm low tonight. Bodes well for tomorrow's 90's party.

[Weather101]

Warm low tonight. Bodes well for tomorrow's 90's party.

102

[Jesse]

Warm low tonight. Bodes well for tomorrow's 90's party.

 

High dps and onshore flow are the perfect recipe for late September 90s.

[BLI snowman]

102

 

This airmass would have been so much fun a couple months ago! Story of our life in the PNW.

[Jesse]

It appears PDX may have west winds at 9 mph with gusts to 17 mph for the rest of time.  

 

Not good for cold outflow fans.  

 

But great for marine push fans!

 

Seriously though, I think their anemometer is broken. Hygrometer seems wonky too.

[BLI snowman]

But great for marine push fans!

 

Seriously though, I think their anemometer is broken. Hygrometer seems wonky too.

Bodes well for a faulty 90 or even 91 on Monday.

[Jesse]

Bodes well for a faulty 90 or even 91 on Monday.

 

Astoria will hit 108, and Matt will defend the reading to the death.

[snow_wizard]

DP up to 64 at PDX. Pretty crazy how steadily it has risen this afternoon. It was in the upper 40s as recently as 3pm.

 

That is really odd.  Even onshore flow shouldn't have done that.

[Jesse]

That is really odd.  Even onshore flow shouldn't have done that.

 

I think the station is having some issues, upon further inspection.

 

The -2.0 for this September so far was the last straw for the NWS. PDX will now run warm "SEA style" indefinitely.

 

OLM is next.

[Weather101]

Bodes well for a faulty 90 or even 91 on Monday.

LOL

[snow_wizard]

The NWS forecast is pretty cool for Seattle this week after tomorrow.  By the end of the week they are going for highs near 60 and lows in the 40s.

[TT-SEA]

The NWS forecast is pretty cool for Seattle this week after tomorrow.  By the end of the week they are going for highs near 60 and lows in the 40s.

 

 

GFS MOS has an incredible crash from 73 to 71 between Monday and Tuesday.  

[GHweatherChris]

GFS MOS has an incredible crash from 73 to 71 between Monday and Tuesday.

SMH

[BLI snowman]

GFS MOS has an incredible crash from 73 to 71 between Monday and Tuesday.

Sounds like some more nice Lake Sammamish boating weather. Marine push death toll could be fairly low.

[snow_wizard]

GFS MOS has an incredible crash from 73 to 71 between Monday and Tuesday.  

 

No way the 73 will verify and the 71 is doubtful, but not impossible.

[Weather101]

No way the 73 will verify and the 71 is doubtful, but not impossible.

Why do you say that?

[TT-SEA]

No way the 73 will verify and the 71 is doubtful, but not impossible.

No 73 tomorrow??

[snow_wizard]

Why do you say that?

 

It would be very difficult to not go higher than 73 tomorrow given the warm air mass and lack of clouds.  I would be astonished if it verified.  On the Tuesday reading mid to upper 60s are more likely than low 70s.  All in all it doesn't really matter to me.  I'm much more interested in the coming trough.

[TT-SEA]

Lake Sammamish area is in a great location. Always warmer there. It was 80 on our very reliable Expedition thermometer when we launched the boat. And it felt all of 80 there.

[TT-SEA]

I think Tuesday and Wednesday and probably Thursday will be warmer than Jim is thinking... full sunshine all 3 afternoons. No big marine push.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 68 with a dp of 63 here at 1600' in the Oregon Cascades...Seems like it will be a very warm night. 

[Weather101]

It would be very difficult to not go higher than 73 tomorrow given the warm air mass and lack of clouds. I would be astonished if it verified. On the Tuesday reading mid to upper 60s are more likely than low 70s. All in all it doesn't really matter to me. I'm much more interested in the coming trough.

Okay thanks for the reply

[Weather101]

Currently 68 with a dp of 63 here at 1600' in the Oregon Cascades...Seems like it will be a very warm night.

56 here

[Front Ranger]

Nice +8 at SEA today... largest departure from normal for the month.

 

Watch out for midnight lows...DP at 48.

[Front Ranger]

Astoria will hit 108, and Matt will defend the reading to the death.

 

That place is just a different animal.

[psnow]

For those who have not read this yet, the attached three month forecast from Pete Parsons is intriguing.

 

http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/programs/NaturalResources/Documents/Weather/dlongrange.pdf

 

My apologies if this does not link automatically.

[Tyler Mode]

Weather geek alert! Brookings on the southern Oregon coast hit 100 degrees today and it is still 91 there at 9 PM.

 

It's the same weather pattern that will have us so warm tomorrow (85-90)

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KBOK&table=1&banner=off