September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Average at Victoria and Abbotsford. close to -0.5F at Shawnigan Lake.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Another bleh rain shadow day for the Victoria area, perhaps thing will get more interesting when the flow becomes more easterly. Pretty easy to pick out the offshore low now.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not a huge fan of the way week two is shaping up.  About three weeks earlier than I wanted to see that pattern.

[Phil]

I'm not a huge fan of the way week two is shaping up. About three weeks earlier than I wanted to see that pattern.

Me neither, but it's probably an intraseasonal excursion, rather than a reflection of the background state. Hopefully we'll keep that vortex out of Alaska, and keep geopotential heights high over the Siberian side of the Arctic.

 

That said, the background state itself is quite strange/unstable, so how things evolve this winter is anyone's guess.

[snow_wizard]

Me neither, but it's probably an intraseasonal excursion, rather than a reflection of the background state. Hopefully we'll keep that vortex out of Alaska, and keep geopotential heights high over the Siberian side of the Arctic.

 

That said, the background state itself is quite strange/unstable, so how things evolve this winter is anyone's guess.

 

No doubt some whacked out things are happening.  There are bound to be surprises this winter.  I guess my biggest fear of seeing the advertised pattern so early is the very real chance this winter will shoot its wad too early again.