September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, I'm sure the Euro and its ensembles are full of crap.

 

Explosive diarrhea. 

 

12z about face incoming. 

[wx_statman]

I don't think +1 over a three month period is significantly above normal. Have you seen the summers recently??

 

And we're talking about a location that leads the way for + anomalies. For most locations, it could easily end up very close to normal for Jun 15 - Sep 15.

 

That's true at least for some locations, like OLM. 

 

But you said "even SEA" in your original post, and the numbers say otherwise. 

[Jesse]

Explosive diarrhea.

 

12z about face incoming.

Probably.

 

Tim's weather control machine went on line March of 2014 and we haven't looked back.

[BLI snowman]

Probably.

 

Tim's weather control machine went on line March of 2014 and we haven't looked back.

 

Sounds like the plot of an awful '90s movie with Sean Connery

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgTiFsCMCo4

[stuffradio]

It's pouring right now, and I just heard a loud thunder clap right near my house.

[TT-SEA]

Explosive diarrhea. 

 

12z about face incoming.

Not even close.

[wx_statman]

Sounds like the plot of an awful '90s movie with Sean Connery

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgTiFsCMCo4

 

Looks like this movie has a 5% rating on rotten tomatoes. 

[BLI snowman]

Not even close.

 

Doubled down. Europe is officially going all-in on its overflowing rectum.

[Jesse]

The 12z Euro shows a pretty sexy pattern. Overflowing rectum and all.

[Phil]

It's very easy to determine which model is accurate.

 

Just see which one blowtorches DC the most, and you've got your answer. I promise, this method will never fail.

[Bryant]

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/intense-but-narrow-convergence-zone-drops-summers-worth-of-rain-in-few-hours-near-sedro-

[BLI snowman]

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/intense-but-narrow-convergence-zone-drops-summers-worth-of-rain-in-few-hours-near-sedro-

 

Nice job there.

 

That 3.68" is incredible, on par with the heaviest single day events on record for that area. Sedro Woolley's record back to 1896 is 4.01". 

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/intense-but-narrow-convergence-zone-drops-summers-worth-of-rain-in-few-hours-near-sedro-

Nice!  I have a buddy that lives on the northern edge of the flats there near I-5, and he said he has not seen a storm like that in a while.  My house is just NW of Lake Whatcom, mostly out of the line of fire but we still managed about 2/3" or so...

[Jesse]

PDX gunning for 70 again today.

[Jesse]

Surprisingly good ensemble support for the 12z Euro.

 

Did anyone see the 12z Canadian?

[Phil]

Surprisingly good ensemble support for the 12z Euro.

 

Did anyone see the 12z Canadian?

Looks like more EPS members jumped into the retrogression camp during the d11-15 range. Seems the consensus is for a brief westward crest of the offshore anticyclone before the next retrogression.

[Phil]

The 12z EPS control run looks fairly similar to the 12z ECMWF and 12z EPS mean. Also depicts a coherent retrogression during the middle of September. Pattern wise, definitely vibes of last September, which is somewhat interesting.

[Deweydog]

Surprisingly good ensemble support for the 12z Euro.

 

Did anyone see the 12z Canadian?

 

Pretty disastrous by the morning of September 11th.  

[Phil]

Interesting development today. Looks like the CMC/ensembles abandoned the idea of a propagatory wave into the EPAC/WHEM at/beyond d10, siding more with the ECMWF/EPS depiction of subsidence there w/ forcing centered west of the dateline towards the MT domain.

 

The GFS/GEFS are now solo in their depiction of EPAC/WHEM forcing in the d11-15 range.

[Farmboy]

Interesting development today. Looks like the CMC/ensembles abandoned the idea of a propagatory wave into the EPAC/WHEM at/beyond d10, siding more with the ECMWF/EPS depiction of subsidence there w/ forcing centered west of the dateline towards the MT domain.

 

The GFS/GEFS are now solo in their depiction of EPAC/WHEM forcing in the d11-15 range.

So does this mean wet/cool or warm/dry?

[wx_statman]

PDX gunning for 70 again today.

 

We keep getting those sunbreaks right in the middle of the afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

Dry all day with filtered sun... but in the last 20 minutes its has started absolutely dumping rain.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Overcast, 70 degrees, 30-35mph winds from the west. 

 

I'm liking it!

[wx_statman]

This is weird. Low this morning @ PDX was 58 but the Daily Climate Report shows 49?

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

[NorthBurnabyWeather]

The Weather Channel has this forecast for Seattle tomorrow:

 

 

Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.

which surprised me. I'm used to seeing "rain/thunder" or "t-showers", or "...with a few rumbles of thunder".

 

It made me wonder if TWC has ever forecasted "scattered strong storms", "scattered strong storms/wind", "strong storms", or "strong storms/wind" for the Seattle area. Or anywhere in Washington state for that matter. This also goes for the "a few storms may be severe" or "storms may produce large hail and strong winds" bit.

[Deweydog]

[Deweydog]

This is weird. Low this morning @ PDX was 58 but the Daily Climate Report shows 49?

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

 

Shades of late August 2008.  

[Jesse]

This is weird. Low this morning @ PDX was 58 but the Daily Climate Report shows 49?

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

I was going to mention the same thing. Bad reading?

[Jesse]

GFS sticks to its guns with lots of warmth in the LR. Decent operational support too. Wayyy different than the Euro.

 

One of the models will blink the next few runs. Could be the Euro.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Storm today for Portland is a lot like a So Cal rainstorm. Looks nice and promising for some good rain as it approaches, but then completely falls apart and brings 0.05" or less.

[wx_statman]

Shades of late August 2008.  

 

Great cold trough!

[wx_statman]

I was going to mention the same thing. Bad reading?

 

I dunno. That's a weird one. I remember this happening a couple times before.

 

12/10/2004 low was 57 but recorded as 49. The 49 even made it to the F6 before it was corrected.

 

POST EDITED. I initially had this backwards! Getting old. 

[stuffradio]

It's pouring rain here again. I was outside taking my dog to the bathroom, then the rain increased its intensity on my head like someone turning on a faucet.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Storm today for Portland is a lot like a So Cal rainstorm. Looks nice and promising for some good rain as it approaches, but then completely falls apart and brings 0.05" or less.

 

That's how it's been in Victoria for nearly this entire summer. This system was shown in the models a couple days ago to dump up to an inch of rain but so far it hasn't amount to anything more than a day of drizzle with anything of intensity falling apart before it hits. Totals now stand at about 0.07" on the day. In another month temperatures will drop and the amount of rain that falls won't make any difference, but at this time of year there's still a chance to repair at least some of the damage done by the drought.

[stuffradio]

That's how it's been in Victoria for nearly this entire summer. This system was shown in the models a couple days ago to dump up to an inch of rain but so far it hasn't amount to anything more than a day of drizzle with anything of intensity falling apart before it hits. Totals now stand at about 0.07" on the day. In another month temperatures will drop and the amount of rain that falls won't make any difference, but at this time of year there's still a chance to repair at least some of the damage done by the drought.

Yeah, it's definitely location dependent, much like snow. For example, I have probably surpassed an inch of rain now since yesterday. I was pretty close already, over 3/4 of the way there since before this latest down pour and rain I'm currently getting. So with all things, you can be left high and dry, or be hitting the bulls eye. Being nestled up next to a mountain helps with enhanced rainfall too.

[luminen]

It's pouring rain here again. I was outside taking my dog to the bathroom, then the rain increased its intensity on my head like someone turning on a faucet.

 

Yeah it's been raining pretty good here the last hour. Streets are beginning to flood thanks to lots of leaves. It rained heavily here for an hour or two this morning around 8am or 9am but was mostly dry throughout the day.

[TT-SEA]

That's how it's been in Victoria for nearly this entire summer. This system was shown in the models a couple days ago to dump up to an inch of rain but so far it hasn't amount to anything more than a day of drizzle with anything of intensity falling apart before it hits. Totals now stand at about 0.07" on the day. In another month temperatures will drop and the amount of rain that falls won't make any difference, but at this time of year there's still a chance to repair at least some of the damage done by the drought.

 

 

I think we are past that point now no?    

 

Therein lies an interesting facet of the PNW... does not rain all summer but then when everything is dormant its raining all the time.    I guess it matters year round for the fir trees correct?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

65/52 with 0.08" of rain up here today.

 

Currently down to 54.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I think we are past that point now no?    

 

Therein lies some irony... does not rain all summer but then when everything is dormant its raining all the time.    I guess it matter year round for the fir trees correct?

 

This is still early enough for many plants to put on growth. Grass will green up far more effectively at this time of year than it will if it remains dry through to October and the rain comes with colder temperatures. Rhododendron also will also spring back in this sort of weather and there are plenty of fern species that can grow well into October. Even some deciduous trees can put on late season growth under moist conditions.

[Bryant]

So does this mean wet/cool or warm/dry?

I'm not Phil, but I'll respond since he hasn't had a chance yet. EPAC/WHEM forcing is typical of an El Nino regime, resulting in west coast ridging and east coast troughing. This configuration would also stall any ENSO cooling with low level westerlies dominating the overall pattern. This is what we've seen on average over the past 2 winters.

 

Forcing over the IO/MT (EHEM) region however correlates to a La Nina like configuration, with Pacific height rises and West coast troughing. The location of forcing is important because the of resulting downstream configuration