September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

PDX checked in with a high of 69 today.  A nice 10 degrees below normal.

[TT-SEA]

This is still early enough for many plants to put on growth. Grass will green up far more effectively at this time of year than it will if it remains dry through to October and the rain comes with colder temperatures. Rhododendron also will also spring back in this sort of weather and there are plenty of fern species that can grow well into October. Even some deciduous trees can put on late season growth under moist conditions.

Good information... the grass always greens up in the fall before going somewhat dormant. Although the grass is usually sort of green here all winter unlike other regions of the continent.

[snow_wizard]

GFS sticks to its guns with lots of warmth in the LR. Decent operational support too. Wayyy different than the Euro.

 

One of the models will blink the next few runs. Could be the Euro.

 

I will be interested to see which one blinks.  The ECMWF seems to be a more logical progression, but the GFS idea of a quick ridge followed by a quick retrogression could have some merit too.

[ShawniganLake]

OT....but the First hurricane of the season about to make landfall in Florida. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My kids are landing in Orlando tonight...Talked to my ex-wife...She didn't seem to concerned about the hurricane...

[Jesse]

My kids are landing in Orlando tonight...Talked to my ex-wife...She didn't seem to concerned about the hurricane...

Pretty sure that storm formed over foreign waters. This wouldn't be happening on Trump's watch.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS continues to have a suspicious looking progression around day 8 / 9.  The ridge is out around 150 wanting to drive another trough in here, but instead it inexplicably shows the ridge popping up over the NW.  I still say the recent ECMWF runs look more likely to verify.  The difference between the two model solutions could stem from rather different handling of the MJO by the two models.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty sure that storm formed over foreign waters. This wouldn't be happening on Trump's watch.

 

The extreme anti Trump sentiment is a bit puzzling to me.

 

I could ramble on about the horrible shortcomings of Hillary, but why bother.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS continues to have a suspicious looking progression around day 8 / 9.  The ridge is out around 150 wanting to drive another trough in here, but instead it inexplicably shows the ridge popping up over the NW.  I still say the recent ECMWF runs look more likely to verify.  The difference between the two model solutions could stem from rather different handling of the MJO by the two models.

 

 

Has to be tropics related... and the ECMWF usually wins these battles of course.   Although the ECMWF lost two battles with the GFS in the last month when it was showing ridging and the GFS was showing a deep trough... the most recent being with this current trough with the models back on 8/19 and 8/20.

 

And the GFS and Canadian are in basic agreement.    The trough could become established in the middle of the country.    `

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[Phil]

The Canadian ensembles are more in line with the ECMWF/EPS.

 

The GEFS flares up WHEM convection out of nowhere right ahead of the subsidence field in front of the EHEM standing wave..definitely skeptical of that.

[wx_statman]

OT....but the First hurricane of the season about to make landfall in Florida. 

 

Pretty hard to believe its been 11 years since a hurricane hit Florida. Wilma in '05 was the last. 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS once again shows the ridge moving closer to us for a short time only to be follwed by a major crash a few days later.  Just as likley we stay troughy all the way through, but the GFS solution would be fine also.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty hard to believe its been 11 years since a hurricane hit Florida. Wilma in '05 was the last. 

 

I doubt we will ever see them go that long again.  Pretty freakish actually.

[Jesse]

The extreme anti Trump sentiment is a bit puzzling to me.

 

I could ramble on about the horrible shortcomings of Hillary, but why bother.

It was a dumb joke.

 

I'm pretty sure Hillary eats infants slathered in the blood of Syrian refugees for breakfast.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS once again shows the ridge moving closer to us for a short time only to be follwed by a major crash a few days later.  Just as likley we stay troughy all the way through, but the GFS solution would be fine also.

 

As long as you approve and everything is going perfectly according to your plan.    Maybe none of that will happen as is often the case when you try to line it all up.  

[snow_wizard]

As long as you approve and everything is going perfectly according to your plan.    Maybe none of that will happen as is often the case when you try to line it all up.  

 

It must follow my plan!

[snow_wizard]

It was a dumb joke.

 

I'm pretty sure Hillary eats infants slathered in the blood of Syrian refugees for breakfast.

 

I know...

 

It's just amazing to here how venomous most media personalities are toward Trump.  You would think he is Satan incarnate or Adolph Hitler.  Nobody is as bad as some are trying to make him out to be.

[Geos]

Was around by Alki Beach and then went over to the Kitsap side today where the rain really came down in buckets for awhile. Here just light rain so far.

[TT-SEA]

It must follow my plan!

 

 

Yeah.   That thinking is the very source of your occasional expletive-filled tirades.      

[Deweydog]

I know...

 

It's just amazing to here how venomous most media personalities are toward Trump. You would think he is Satan incarnate or Adolph Hitler. Nobody is as bad as some are trying to make him out to be.

Hillary for prison!!!

[TT-SEA]

I know...

 

It's just amazing to here how venomous most media personalities are toward Trump.  You would think he is Satan incarnate or Adolph Hitler.  Nobody is as bad as some are trying to make him out to be.

 

 

Are you mentally prepared for Hillary to be your president and a winter like 2007-08 but just slightly warmer across the board?     Have you prepared yourself for that scenario?   

[wx_statman]

I know...

 

It's just amazing to here how venomous most media personalities are toward Trump.  You would think he is Satan incarnate or Adolph Hitler.  Nobody is as bad as some are trying to make him out to be.

 

The Hitler comparisons crack me up. All that controversial stuff Trump has said was for attention, not because he's evil. The guy is an attention wh*re. 

[TT-SEA]

My kids are landing in Orlando tonight...Talked to my ex-wife...She didn't seem to concerned about the hurricane...

 

Not a problem for Orlando at all... and moving away.

[Phil]

Watching the live streaming cameras down on Saint Simons & Tybee Island GA, where winds are forecast to reach 70mph later tonight with seas around 20ft. That area is like a second home to me, so hopefully they pull through okay.

[TT-SEA]

Watching the live streaming cameras down on Saint Simons & Tybee Island GA, where winds are forecast to reach 70mph later tonight with seas around 20ft. That area is like a second home to me, so hopefully they pull through okay.

 

 

They have been through worse... I am sure it will be OK.  

[Geos]

I know...

 

It's just amazing to here how venomous most media personalities are toward Trump.  You would think he is Satan incarnate or Adolph Hitler.  Nobody is as bad as some are trying to make him out to be.

 

I know - right!

I think most of the media personalities are out of their minds.

 

---

 

Finally made it to 0.10" for the day.

[wx_statman]

Watching the live streaming cameras down on Saint Simons & Tybee Island GA, where winds are forecast to reach 70mph later tonight with seas around 20ft. That area is like a second home to me, so hopefully they pull through okay.

 

I thought western WA was your second home? 

[Phil]

They have been through worse... I am sure it will be OK.

This would be the worst since Fay. The SE GA coast is actually long overdue for a major hurricane, and due to the nature of the coastline & other geography down there, they're extremely vulnerable to hurricanes.

[TT-SEA]

This would be the worst since Fay. The SE GA coast is actually long overdue for a major hurricane, and due to the nature of the coastline & other geography down there, they're extremely vulnerable to hurricanes.

 

 

This is one is coming from inland though... should be better.

 

Also interesting that there is now a hurricane right in the same basic spot the ECMWF showed like 10 days ago.   Timing was slower... but still.  

[Phil]

I thought western WA was your second home?

Funny.

 

Most of my extended does actually live in the Seattle area (Everett/Edmonds), while the rest live in Miami. We're the only ones living in DC. I haven't visited Seattle in years, though, since we usually gather in Miami.

[Jesse]

The Hitler comparisons crack me up. All that controversial stuff Trump has said was for attention, not because he's evil. The guy is an attention wh*re.

I don't know. Anyone who would consistently make divisive, inflammatory statements sheerly for publicity is probably a little evil.

[Phil]

This is one is coming from inland though... should be better.

 

Also interesting that there is now a hurricane right in the same basic spot the ECMWF showed like 10 days ago. Timing was slower... but still.

That's true. I was down there for Fay (which sorta did the same thing), and it wasn't a huge deal once away from the Oceanside.

 

Lost a bunch of beach and some of the ancient trees, though.

[wx_statman]

Funny.

 

Most of my extended does actually live in the Seattle area (Everett/Edmonds), while the rest live in Miami. We're the only ones living in DC. I haven't visited Seattle in years, though, since we usually gather in Miami.

 

Ah, I see.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF had the right idea... we were talking about this 10 days ago.  

 

That also shows a major hurricane off the west coast of FL.

 

#nothappening

 

[Jesse]

Funny.

 

Most of my extended does actually live in the Seattle area (Everett/Edmonds), while the rest live in Miami. We're the only ones living in DC. I haven't visited Seattle in years, though, since we usually gather in Miami.

Be sure to write all of this down somewhere so you can keep it straight for later.

[wx_statman]

I don't know. Anyone who would consistently make divisive, inflammatory statements sheerly for publicity is probably a little evil.

 

Well yeah, he's not a nice guy. The dude became a successful businessman in New York. You have to be an as*hole to accomplish that. 

[stuffradio]

I don't know. Anyone who would consistently make divisive, inflammatory statements sheerly for publicity is probably a little evil.

It's true, and the DNC needs to be abolished for rigging the nomination process. There are no winners this year.

[Phil]

Be sure to write all of this down somewhere so you can keep it straight for later.

Since I'm telling the honest-to-god truth, I won't have to write to down.

[Deweydog]

I don't know. Anyone who would consistently make divisive, inflammatory statements sheerly for publicity is probably a little evil.

True. It's considerably less evil to do this behind closed doors.

[Jesse]

Well yeah, he's not a nice guy. The dude became a successful businessman in New York. You have to be an as*hole to accomplish that.

He's filed for bankruptcy several times and is known for frequently stiffing people to whom he owes money. Actually would be richer today if he had invested his inheritance from dad as opposed to putting it toward his multiple failed ventures.

 

May be a businessman, but successful might be a bit of a stretch.