January 2014 Observations and Discussion

[DominicR]

Jan came in plowing Chicago with 2 10+ winter storms and a polar vortex that brought record breaking cold to Upper Midwest/Lakes. How the rest of this month shaping up to be?

[Geos]

Next 7 days looks pretty tame. Lowest temp: 7°. Skilling's 7 day didn't look bad either. Average winter temp regime. Probably will only see small snow systems for the next 7-10 days - at least this far south.

[DominicR]

Next 7 days looks pretty tame. Lowest temp: 7°. Skilling's 7 day didn't look bad either. Average winter temp regime. Probably will only see small snow systems for the next 7-10 days - at least this far south.

 

We are on a roller coaster. I like LOT graphic

[james1976]

GFS showing another clipper for saturday

[Tom]

Those that miss out on the Clipper Tuesday, may get their chance on Saturday.  The Clipper train keeps on rolling...

[Tom]

GFS unloads the PV into the Upper Midwest/GL region by next weekend, this run looks way more impressive than the one Jan 3-6.  Depending on how much snow cover we have around then, I think this shot looks to be the mother load.

[Geos]

We're going to have to have snow cover around to even come close to what we had last week. About the coldest I've seen it with scant snow cover is about -3°. January 2003 was a case like that.

[Tom]

Ya, that's why I said depending on how deep the snow cover gets around that will be the deciding factor.  We still have another Clipper Saturday to monitor and then another possible system in the GL early next week, then another chance right before the blast comes the following weekend.  I think we will have atleast 6"+ on the ground for a large area around here.

[james1976]

GFS is way cold throughout majority of the run. some clippers as well. And at the end of the run it looks as if a storm may be developing in the rockies and plains, which may be that storm that Tom has been talking about from the Jan 30-Feb 2 timeframe.

[Tom]

12z GFS probably just had one of the coldest runs of the season to date for next weekend.  PV targets Midwest/GL next weekend ushering -10/-20F temps next Sun - Tue.  The trend for all the models are pointing for a repeat of what we experienced Jan 3-6.  If we do have a deep enough snow cover I don't see why we wouldn't have temps that cold once again.

[NEJeremy]

GFS is way cold throughout majority of the run. some clippers as well. And at the end of the run it looks as if a storm may be developing in the rockies and plains, which may be that storm that Tom has been talking about from the Jan 30-Feb 2 timeframe.

If we're referring to the LRC and the Oct 3-5th blizzard and tornado outbreak than we should see a storm before that based on this years cycle

[Geos]

12z GFS probably just had one of the coldest runs of the season to date for next weekend.  PV targets Midwest/GL next weekend ushering -10/-20F temps next Sun - Tue.  The trend for all the models are pointing for a repeat of what we experienced Jan 3-6.  If we do have a deep enough snow cover I don't see why we wouldn't have temps that cold once again.

 

That's the $64,000 question!

 

Under 4", is not going to do it.

 

So far showing high and dry.

 

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles showing a picture perfect 500mb coast to coast storm track if this panned out.  Blocking over the top, cold air to supply an active west/east storm track Days 10-15.  This is when the LRC reaches its active stage and I think we will see some blockbuster storms showing up end of January into February.

 

 

[Geos]

12z Euro Ensembles showing a picture perfect 500mb coast to coast storm track if this panned out.  Blocking over the top, cold air to supply an active west/east storm track Days 10-15.  This is when the LRC reaches its active stage and I think we will see some blockbuster storms showing up end of January into February.

 

That looks nice.

I couldn't help but catch JB is already looking for the February pattern to develop. Saying the SE ridge will flex it's muscles and shift the trough further west.

[Tom]

+1 Geos, that pattern above is similar to what we saw in December with blocking over the top and a west/east storm track across the U.S.  SE Ridge may become active later in February according to JB's thinking.  IMO, that seems very possible given the pattern that has entrenched this winter.

[Tom]

00z NAM showing some decent moisture for the Thu/Fri Clipper...another one following its heals for Saturday that looks potent also.

 

 

[Tom]

Depending on the track of the Saturday clipper, we could get some added LehS for lakeside counties.  Temps will be in the low/mid teens for the event so very high snow ratios with the weekend Clipper.  Could this be another Saskatchewan Screamer???  Probably a smaller scale version of todays Clipper.

[DominicR]

00z NAM coming in pretty healthy with 500mb wave...

 

[Tom]

Skilling posted a snowfall map of widespread 2-3" totals for Thursday's clipper...

[DominicR]

Hmm I am more interested in Sat Clipper. Wave looks pretty wealthy and digs nicely into C IL and even some signs of strong reflectivity but precip looks quite meager right now.

[Tom]

GFS is the weakest one of the models so far tonight.  It weakens quite a bit as it heads SE but I don't see that happening as it rounds the corner.  These are they type of Clippers that flow along the southern side of the trough and then explode on the east coast.

[Geos]

It might snow some more this week, but both Sunday and Monday will be back above freezing.

 

These fluffy snows get nuked as soon as the sun comes out and the air is above 25° or so.

 

About 20 minutes of daylight gain so far. By the end of the month it's about a 53 minute gain here.

[East Dubzz]

To have a shot at getting as cold as we did last time, we're going to have to either do good with these next couple clippers, which isn't looking too great, or hope for a widespread big snowstorm right before the PV drops down. I don't know if you guys saw my post earlier, but I still have a really good snow pack. Just hoping I can add some and continue to hold on to it.

[Money]

euro for the next clipper

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014011500/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_15.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014011500/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014011500/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_17.png

[DominicR]

euro for the next clipper

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014011500/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_15.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014011500/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014011500/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_17.png

 

Accums?

[DominicR]

This clipper is looking interesting Friday night. Ratios look pretty healthy as well and maybe even some lake enhancement. I am not doubting a winter weather advisory for some areas in Lakes but to early to tell yet. LOT looks favorable:

 

LIKE ONE OF THOSE NEVER-ENDING HANDKERCHIEFS IN A CLOWN`S
POCKET...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER (NUMERO SEIS) IS PROGGED TO BE DIVING
SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE HIS
SIBLINGS THAT CAME BEFORE HIM THIS WEEK...SEIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS CRANKING UP. A
RESPECTABLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IN THEIR HANDLING OF SEIS
LEADS TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SNOW POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT UNLIKE CINCO...SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SEIS COULD TAKE A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR BRINGING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO OUR CWA OR CLOSE BY SATURDAY. FOR NOW JUST RAISED POPS ABOUT
10-20% FROM GUIDANCE BUT STAYED BELOW 50% DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A CONSENSUS TRACK SUSPECT THAT WE COULD BE
TALKING ABOUT SEIS LAYING DOWN A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA NEIGHBORHOOD SATURDAY.

 

 

[East Dubzz]

DVN keeps talking about places having no snow cover. That's not true! I know even people down in CR that still have some decent snow cover left over.

[WBadgersW]

Long range NAM looks interesting for the clipper on Saturday. Of course this is the long range NAM.

[Money]

12z NAM: 4+ from C/E MN through NW/C/S WI and into N. IL

[Meichel]

12Z NAM says we get .5"/hr from 6am Saturday 'til Noon and it's still going.

[james1976]

of course the clipper saturday looks like it may miss me to the east and north again.

[james1976]

tomorrow looks a bit interesting though. im already in a WWA for 1-2" and 50mph wind gusts.

[Sciascia]

This clipper is looking interesting Friday night. Ratios look pretty healthy as well and maybe even some lake enhancement. I am not doubting a winter weather advisory for some areas in Lakes but to early to tell yet. LOT looks favorable:

Five imaginary dollars will be given if the eventual thread for this clipper has "Número Seis" in the title. LOT knows how to throw in a touch of humor from time to time.

 

12z GFS painting 3-5" in N IL from this clipper.

[Tom]

12z NAM...looks like a decent 3-6" event.  Nice way to rebuild that snow cover.  Delta T's should be very favorable for LehS.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

We should probably start a new thread for this one after 12z Euro comes out...what do you think Dominick???

[Tom]

Models are also indicating 1-2" for tomorrows Clipper.

 

12z GFS a little less QPF for Saturday Clipper but still not bad...

 

 

 

 

[DominicR]

Yeah.

[East Dubzz]

I'm not for sure what to expect with tomorrow's clipper. DMX has an advisory for 1-2", but I don't even know for sure if I will end up with 1-2", because the DVN's AFD this morning said less than an inch expected.

[Tom]

12z RGEM looking pretty good for Thursday's Clipper...more widespread with it's snowfall in IA/IL/WI/IN/MI...

 

 

[The Snowman]

Still liking the bitter cold to close out January and kick off February. Thinking we'll see progressive but intense waves of cold weather that could continue on through a good chunk of the month.

[Tom]

I know its still about 6 days away, but both the GFS/Euro show a weak SLP tracking through the lower lakes next Monday/Tuesday and this could be a decent chance for LES.  Been watching this for a few days now and it looks very possible to turn winds NNE down the lake Monday night and temps will be very cold during this period.

 

 

 

[Tony]

It really has been a boring stretch the past week or so and it looks like the clipper parade continues which is always a hit or miss never knowing what you are going to get. Looks like we will have to wait at least another week before things start to ramp up and maybe get the branches to phase up a major storm.

[Tom]

The potential storm for the end of January is still showing up on the CFS in the long range.  Surprisingly, it's consistency this far out of even showing a storm is remarkable during that time fram.  What's caught my attention is the magnitude of this storm that the model is now showing this far out which leads me to believe this could end up being a monster storm.  During Cycle 1 of the LRC it was a Blizzard, cycle 2 it was Not (but still dumped FEET of snow in the Northwoods) and cycle 3 is upon us end of January.  Here are some maps from Jan 29-31.

 

 

[Niko]

The potential storm for the end of January is still showing up on the CFS in the long range.  Surprisingly, it's consistency this far out of even showing a storm is remarkable during that time fram.  What's caught my attention is the magnitude of this storm that the model is now showing this far out which leads me to believe this could end up being a monster storm.  During Cycle 1 of the LRC it was a Blizzard, cycle 2 it was Not (but still dumped FEET of snow in the Northwoods) and cycle 3 is upon us end of January.  Here are some maps from Jan 29-31.

Tom..I only see 6inches for my area if I am not mistaken, which doesnt seem like a monster. Correct me if I am not reading this properly. It looks a lot more for the East Coast folks. No?!

[Tom]

The 500mb weather pattern that is being depicted by the models end of January would favor a more west/east storm track.  I believe a lot of us on this board have a higher probability to get snow out of this since there will be plenty of cold air to supply a storm system.

 

Nikos, I wouldn't pay attention to the exact QPF totals right now.  Instead, the fact that there is a storm potential this far out is pretty amazing to see.  GFS was hinting at this storm for a few runs but its now just getting in the long range.  Yes, its Fantasy Land but the LRC is a neat way to predict storms weeks in advance and when they start showing up on the models it makes it that much more fascinating.

[The Snowman]

The 500mb weather pattern that is being depicted by the models end of January would favor a more west/east storm track.  I believe a lot of us on this board have a higher probability to get snow out of this since there will be plenty of cold air to supply a storm system.

 

Nikos, I wouldn't pay attention to the exact QPF totals right now.  Instead, the fact that there is a storm potential this far out is pretty amazing to see.  GFS was hinting at this storm for a few runs but its now just getting in the long range.  Yes, its Fantasy Land but the LRC is a neat way to predict storms weeks in advance and when they start showing up on the models it makes it that much more fascinating.

Agreed that this looks to be more of a W-E track: 12z GFS has ridging in the Gulf of Alaska, but the polar vortex displaced in Canada means more of a zonal flow situation here in the US. That said, things are looking pretty decent for storm prospects here if the recurring system does drop further south than we saw in the December cycle. MREF projections bode well for a system affecting us here as well, with guidance projecting a storm moving over central Japan on the 22nd. The 6-10 day extrapolation would have us arrive at a January 28-February 1 storm timeframe. 

[james1976]

I believe that would be more than 6"

[ChiTownWeather]

Read this article today and thought you guys may be interested, now there will be another weather channel to watch on tv other than TWC. IMO I think Accuweather is very on top of weather patterns, and it will be nice to see it on television

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-announces-the-laun/22055195 

 

 

link did not work for some reason here is another one

http://www.centredaily.com/2014/01/14/3985149/accuweather-to-launch-247-tv-station.html

 

on accuweather's website is the original link

Edited January 16, 2014 by ChiTownWeather

[NEJeremy]

Hey Tom what storm matches up with the LRC that would move a storm through at the end of the month? It seems that would be too long for that storm on October 4th here in Nebraska

[Tom]

LRC cycle is roughly 58-60 days, so the storm being depicted by the CFS is the Oct 3-5 WY/Dakotas Blizzard.