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January 2014 Observations and Discussion


DominicR

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Still looking to go positive.

 

 

AO looks to dip though.

 

 

Need to keep the +NAO to avoid the worse cold scenario.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS takes away the cold starting the 28th. No PV coming down that week anymore. Looks like Pacific air wins over.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That ain't happening, typical GFS feedback problems. I don't see that ridge in northern Pacific breaking down and with AO/NAO showing blocking those are all cold signals.

AO/NAO are both negative and it shows those warm of temps?? I saw the image Geos posted. I mean those wouldn't necessarily mean PV Part 2, but yeah, I doubt that ridge breaks and with those negative, I doubt we see that warm. Could be warm, who knows, but I doubt that warm!!

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00z Euro showing blocking in the AO/NAO by Day 10 so that should still keep it cold in Eastern half of the U.S.

 

We loose the -EPO though.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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00z Euro showing blocking in the AO/NAO by Day 10 so that should still keep it cold in Eastern half of the U.S.

Would the blocking bring snow to Nebraska Tom? I thought I was reading on one of Garys blog the other day that blocking would be a good thing. Is this correct or was I reading that wrong?

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Blocking would bring a favorable storm track through the Plains, especially with the -AO.  Depending on how strong the blocking is, that will determine storm track.  Last winter when the AO tanked storms kept pounding the Plains but I don't remember if in fact NE got in on the game.

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Wow 00z GFS was showing signs of warmness long range... +AO/NAO and -PNA. Pretty decent spikes in all of them too. I'd be alright with it being more mild if we could get some nice storms out of them. Like the AO/NAO go neutral or around there so there could maybe be some cold air up north, and then a -PNA, and maybe a cutter or hooker, or CO Low could sweep through.

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Wow 00z GFS was showing signs of warmness long range... +AO/NAO and -PNA. Pretty decent spikes in all of them too. I'd be alright with it being more mild if we could get some nice storms out of them. Like the AO/NAO go neutral or around there so there could maybe be some cold air up north, and then a -PNA, and maybe a cutter or hooker, or CO Low could sweep through.

Yeah I noticed that too. We'll probably finally get our storm here in Nebraska and it will be all rain or the majority will fall as rain before we get a little backside snow!

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Wow 00z GFS was showing signs of warmness long range... +AO/NAO and -PNA. Pretty decent spikes in all of them too. I'd be alright with it being more mild if we could get some nice storms out of them. Like the AO/NAO go neutral or around there so there could maybe be some cold air up north, and then a -PNA, and maybe a cutter or hooker, or CO Low could sweep through.

 

I think we are looking at an end of the current pattern and a reconfiguration of the jet stream coming up. Given the teleconnections, I think the PV might come down, but this area will be grazed by it and it will progress more towards the Northeast.

I see a near normal stretch of temperatures to close out January.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I think we are looking at an end of the current pattern and a reconfiguration of the jet stream coming up. Given the teleconnections, I think the PV might come down, but this area will be grazed by it and it will progress more towards the Northeast.

I see a near normal stretch of temperatures to close out January.

It will be cold this week, but nothing like what we saw last time. However, after that, I agree with you that things look like they're really going to change. Teleconnections, especially from the GFS and GEFS, support this. Looks like it could be quite mild, actually. GFS continues to show a decently strong spike on the AO/NAO.

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12z GFS with the last few days of the month.

 

 

EURO shoves the PV core off to our east.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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End of the Euro looked like it was showing more of a zonal flow with that strong West Coast ridge finally breaking down.

 

Definitely. It is swaying towards the GFS. Not as cold as the GFS, but more towards seasonable. I will take it!

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Why I think at least the beginning of February will be mild and a pattern change may be taking place:

 

http://www.pulsatingweather.com/2/post/2014/01/above-average-temps-to-start-february.html

 

I agree with that analysis. Everything changes between the 24-28th. Wouldn't be surprised to see 50° during that break.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Was not expecting to see LES on the models for Cook County tomorrow.

 

 

All the way up to 35° currently.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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