January 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

CPC came out with their new FMA Temp Outlook...you can clearly see that the cold air will be pooled from a NW/SE fashion.  Very similar to what the weather pattern looked like last winter from Feb-April.  The cold will start pooling into the NW Territories of Canada into the Lower 48.  CFS has been showing this type of pattern evolving as well as a warm SE.  That is a great set up for a west/east storm track.

[ChicagoToSeattle]

The snows that winter were almost all classic southwest storms--very few clippers and almost no lake snow

 

Yes, there was probably lake enhancement as those lows traversed across IL and IN but from what I can remember they were all SW-based and moisture rich storms. As a ten year-old I learned about Pan Handle Hooks and Clippers too. This year is the first one where I can remember the lake playing such a definitive role in snowfall totals for Chicago. Snowfall totals for MSN and MKE are 10+ inches below ORD and that can be attributed to LES. 

[East Dubzz]

Given our snow pack, I'm surprised the model is showing colder temps to both my east and west.

[Tom]

18z GFS just brings the mother load of Polar Air into our region early next week!  The Clipper train continues into early next week also.

[ChicagoToSeattle]

JB has a brief write-up on Weatherbell, to summarize an extended period (16 days) of temp departures -12 to -20 below normal from Chicago through the mid Atlantic. He calls it "incomprehensible cold"  Those below zero days will continue to add up in Chicago. The record for a winter I believe is 25 days and I think ORD is around 12 right now. Another interesting record could be approached!

[Geos]

I hope JB busts! haha

 

Down to 3° here, but clouds have moved in too. This clipper train might produce enough clouds to help stop the rapid decrease of temperatures overnight. Trade off is more gloomy days like yesterday.

[james1976]

GFS showing nice clipper sunday!

[Tom]

Down to 2F, hopefully get subzero tonight and tack on another one.  Break those records!  Got a good feeling we will break January snowfall record this month.

[bud2380]

Wow, you guys might break a record for January snowfall? Meanwhile only 200 miles away I've had 5" this month. I don't think that's going to break any records...

[Tom]

Officialy -1F at ORD...

[Money]

I am so sick of this cold. I just want it to be in the 60's and baseball season again.

[Geos]

I am so sick of this cold. I just want it to be in the 60's and baseball season again.

 

+100

Dealing with a frozen outlet pipe tonight. It sucks...

---

 

WGN flashed this across the screen tonight.

 

 

Forecast tonight is for rising temperatures! Lol, not very much though.

 

 

A 20 percent chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to around 3 by 4am. Wind chill values as low as -14. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

 

[DominicR]

I am so sick of this cold. I just want it to be in the 60's and baseball season again.

 

+10000000000000

[DominicR]

+100

Dealing with a frozen outlet pipe tonight. It sucks...

---

 

WGN flashed this across the screen tonight.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-7389-0-48243700-1390361736.png

 

Forecast tonight is for rising temperatures! Lol, not very much though.

 

Yeah maybe over 50 inches by next Monday! Another inch maybe 1.5 tommorow and Sunday clipper looks like a winter weather advisory or even low warning type snow with high ratios and longer duration. That though might keep heaviest accums south of Chicago.

[DominicR]

Yeah maybe over 50 inches by next Monday! Another inch maybe 1.5 tommorow and Sunday clipper looks like a winter weather advisory or even low warning type snow with high ratios and longer duration. That though might keep heaviest accums south of Chicago.

 

Sun looks pretty fueled by tight thermal graident setting up in NE/IA.

[Money]

GFS coming in even colder for next week compared to 18z.

[Money]

Showing -15 temps over WI/MN and -10 at 15z on 1-27. 18z GFS was about 10 degrees warmer. 

[james1976]

latest GFS continues to show decent clippers for this weekend followed by major cold next week!

[Money]

Showing two days here of -10 to -15 for highs on both days. Jesus.

[Madtown]

how the clippers look for the Madison area this weekend? Think I might just be chillin in the ice box

[Tom]

I'd rather take snow and brutal cold, over 33F & Rain or prolong warmth any day of the week.  I'm not going to complain about the cold.  Just take it all in and enjoy the Winter we are having so far.  If brutal cold comes with all the snow we are getting, so be it.  We are Midwesterners and used to this kind of weather.  How did they handle it back in the late 70's and early 80's?  We have been spoiled over the last 30 years or so and very likely heading into a pattern that we had back then.  So get used to the cold and try to appreciate it.  Would you rather be in NE where they have subzero nights with NO Snow cover????  Come on now!

[Money]

We've gotten like 6-7 inches of snow over the last month here. Everything seems to be hitting the Chicago area. IA/MN/WI for the most part haven't been doing well lately and just been cold and dry. 

[Money]

You can't even enjoy winter when it's this cold which is why I hate it. I love snowboarding, skiing, and ice-fishing, but it's not fun to go out when it's 0 degrees all the time. Give me 20-30 degree weather and snow, and I'll be happy. 

[Tom]

Ya, I hear you Money.  You got a point there, but at least you have a decent snow cover.  The only year I can remember where we had consistent cold but not brutal was 2009-2010 I think.

[Tom]

You can go skiing, snowmobiling in the 10's/20's...but single digit or subzero highs probably not.  Just gotta bundle up.  They do it all the time up in the UP of Michigan and my friends always go up there.

[Geos]

You can't even enjoy winter when it's this cold which is why I hate it. I love snowboarding, skiing, and ice-fishing, but it's not fun to go out when it's 0 degrees all the time. Give me 20-30 degree weather and snow, and I'll be happy. 

 

Yeah that is a good point. I'd love a wetter snowfall where it sticks on the trees all day. Powdery snow is boring now. I like the thrill of tracking rain/snow lines too!

 

Records for ORD next week.

 

26th: -16°/1897

27th: -10°/1955

28th: -13°/1977

29th: -16°/1966

30th: -15°/1966

31st: -12°/1985

 

I think the 27th and 28th could be in jeopardy.

 

Milwaukee

 

26th: -15°/1897

27th: -14°/1966

28th: -20°/1885

29th: -23°/1966

30th: -24°/1951

31st: -15°/1899

[Money]

Long range GFS showing more brutal cold. -20 temps all the way to IL/IN area with -50 WC in WI/MN and -40 WC through IL/IN.

 

Rinse-wash-repeat 

[Geos]

Midweek is when the PNA crashes through 0. I expect the GFS will warm a bit between now and then.

Something has to give...

[Tom]

00z GGEM coming in juicy for the Sat Clipper and another one on its heels for Sunday.  Some places in N IL/S WI may end up having 8-12" of snow by the end of this weekend with high snow ratios.

 

[Tom]

CFS showing extreme cold Jan 26-31 period...

 

[Money]

0z euro

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012200/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_22.png

 

12z euro same time frame

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012112/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_24.png

 

1050+ H compared to 1042 on 12z

[DominicR]

LOT:

OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS HAVE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR
SUN...AND PRESENTLY IS EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
MARGINALLY WITH THE RECENT CYCLES BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME
CONSISTENCY. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS FAVORABLE ON THE NOSE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH A FLATTENING IN THE MID-LVL HEIGHT FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWFA. THIS MAY BE AN EARLY INDICATION THAT AN FGEN BAND
COULD DEVELOP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

 

[Geos]

Clouds kept temperatures up last night. Only hit -3°, before rising to the current 5°.

[gosaints]

Only hit -3. Lol. You will get your fix next week...

[Snowshoe]

Subzero lows and a couple of inches of snow every few days makes for perfect snowmobile trails. Sleds now days have heated seats, hand warmers and that's not to mention how advanced the clothing is now days. Get yourself some better equipment and get out enjoy this wonderful winter! 

You can go skiing, snowmobiling in the 10's/20's...but single digit or subzero highs probably not.  Just gotta bundle up.  They do it all the time up in the UP of Michigan and my friends always go up there.

http://kellnerknights.org/files/2014/01/2014-01-21-07.33.45-1024x579.jpg

[Snowshoe]

I know it's GFS fantasy land and all but, it's toying with the idea of a more zonal flow with a storm brewing around 2/5.

[NEJeremy]

We're within a week or so now of the LRC pattern which should be showing a huge storm around the 30th. so hopefully it starts showing something before the 5th otherwise I'm giving up all hope in the LRC and this winter here in Nebraska

[Geos]

A large storm to track would be great. Clippers are running themselves out of style now! lol

 

Did not see this on the EURO yesterday - showing a bigger warm push this weekend.

 

[Madtown]

36 break out the swimming suits and sunscreen, anyways really hoping we get a few inches out of this thing this weekend, before we drop off the ledge again

[james1976]

GFS is south with sunday clipper