January 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

1st week of Feb looks wonderful on the 18z GFS...   Some powerhouse storm potential.  You can see the blocking setting up and a perfect west/east storm track that I've been seeing since a couple weeks ago.

[winterfreak]

I know this the Great Lakes forum but given the fact that the plains forum is dead I think I'll camp out here. Have learned a lot anyway. Been almost a month since we've had any precip in Kansas City and long rangers don't look to great for our area. Cold and dry. This has to give.

[Tom]

KC will be in a good spot in terms of storm track once we get through this cold spell early next week and look towards next weekend.

[Geos]

Mike Caplan's 7 Day has -5F high both Mon/Tue and a -19F Tuesday morning low!  This brutal cold wave is going to break records.  It may not get above 0 till Thursday morning!

 

EURO disagrees. Raises the temp to 16-20° in NE IL on Wednesday.

[Scott26]

EURO disagrees. Raises the temp to 16-20° in NE IL on Wednesday.

Yeah, I think highs will likely get above zero on Wednesday. But, Wednesday morning will still be brutal with temps in the negative double digits.

[abhidupage]

EURO disagrees. Raises the temp to 16-20° in NE IL on Wednesday.

Euro was also showing 37 degrees for Sunday which isn't gonna happen its been off all winter.

[abhidupage]

Def could see temps reaching double digits wed but 20 may be on the high side. But all depends on how much snowcover we have

[DominicR]

On top of that GFS continues to hint major overunning event day 7-8.

[IowaHawkeyes]

what do you mean by  major overrunning event?

[Geos]

what do you mean by  major overrunning event?

 

Warm air advection creating a wintry mix or snow event.

[IowaHawkeyes]

Ok thanks

[Geos]

High for today is already busted wide open. 28° currently. Forecasted high was about 17°.

[East Dubzz]

Down to 11 here after reaching 29 late last night. Tomorrow is a decent day temperature wise, but sure won't seem like it with wind and blowing snow!

 

Just looked at the NAM temps, it's not quite as cold Monday morning, but it's FREAKIN cold on Tuesday morning!!!!

[gosaints]

Just a guess but I am guessing the nam is a little slow with moving in the cold air. Its crazy cold Tuesday morning though

[East Dubzz]

Just a guess but I am guessing the nam is a little slow with moving in the cold air. Its crazy cold Tuesday morning though

Or is just underdoing the cold air, which is has done quite a bit this year. But kind of hard to say that with the temps it's showing Tuesday morning.

[gosaints]

Srefs are much colder Monday morning

[Tony]

Next Thursday looks very interesting around these parts. Could lay down a decent amount of snow.

 

Saturday looks interesting as well. Looks like we start getting into an active pattern and more moisture to work with.

[Tom]

+1 Tony, if those 2 snow events transpire next week, ORD will be breaking January all time snow records.  Just need it to come in a bit quicker on Saturday.  Here is the qpf through the end of the month.  You can tack on an additional .20-.30 qpf on Sunday to these totals.

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

12z Euro looking very good over the next 10 days....

 

 

 

[tim the weatherman]

**all 3 medium/long models have lost next weeks storm potential. nam modelholding onto sw energy but still a little bit to soon to see what it does with it.      edit: source rapid wx                                                    

[james1976]

**all 3 medium/long models have lost next weeks storm potential. nam modelholding onto sw energy but still a little bit to soon to see what it does with it.      edit: source rapid wx                                                    

not true. models are showing snow potential late next week and weekend.

[tim the weatherman]

thanks for the good news james1976 rapidwx has lied to people.

[6789]

With these extremely cold temps coming in tomorrow night, is there a possibility we will be under a Wind Chill Warning for 57 hours!? Seems crazy to think about! That prediction was made based on a WCW from 12:00 a.m. Sunday to 9:00 a.m. Wednesday. Also, does anyone know if the temps will actually hit 14 on Wednesday? Seems a little far fetched with a predicted low of -15 Tuesday night. 

[Geos]

The air mass that came in today was not forecasted correctly. It is warmer outside than forecast. Currently 13°, instead of near 6° in the forecast. 

 

A thin layer of ice over the snow is preventing any blowing and drifting today. Good road conditions overall.

[East Dubzz]

The air mass that came in today was not forecasted correctly. It is warmer outside than forecast. Currently 13°, instead of near 6° in the forecast.

 

A thin layer of ice over the snow is preventing any blowing and drifting today. Good road conditions overall.

And it was colder here than expected. Got up to 9 degrees today and there was lots of blowing and drifting.

[Geos]

And it was colder here than expected. Got up to 9 degrees today and there was lots of blowing and drifting.

 

Well I guess that's where the core of the cold air dome went then. haha.

 

Actually the sun is getting to the point now, that all the fresh snow that fell over night has melted off the roofs. Thinking tomorrow might be near freezing like some of the models said earlier.

 

EURO says -4° or so tonight, before warming, but I think more like +5° with these winds.

[Blugga]

Looks like the end is near....

http://s24.postimg.org/sriqxr8np/extr.png

[Geos]

Looks like the end is near....

 

 

Wish I could hibernate inside until Thursday! haha

 

Not sure if the EURO is out to lunch, but it shows a warm slug of air late Thursday.

 

[Tony]

If this happens then bring out the shorts

[Tom]

I bet a lot of the snow weenies out in NE are going to finally wake up after this run!  It was a matter of time before we got a powerhouse CO LOW to eject out of the Rockies and hammer the Plains on east in the GL.

 

 

[Geos]

I bet a lot of the snow weenies out in NE are going to finally wake up after this run!  It was a matter of time before we got a powerhouse CO LOW to eject out of the Rockies and hammer the Plains on east in the GL.

 

Love those west to east storms! 

 

Yeah I'm going to move that to this thread actually.

[Tom]

Could we just frame this please???  2 FEET of snow in the Midwest/GL Region..Epic if this continues!

 

Those folks in Omaha won't have a lot of complaining if this transpires.

 

[tim the weatherman]

looking good tom

[Geos]

Could we just frame this please???  2 FEET of snow in the Midwest/GL Region..Epic if this continues!

 

Those folks in Omaha won't have a lot of complaining if this transpires.

 

Very linear and constantly focused near the 41st-42nd latitude lines. Gradient. 

 

Let's make it a 80"+ winter!

[DominicR]

Very linear and constantly focused near the 41st-42nd latitude lines. Gradient. 

 

Let's make it a 80"+ winter!

 

Very linear and constantly focused near the 41st-42nd latitude lines. Gradient. 

 

Let's make it a 80"+ winter!

 

We possibly could be looking at one of the coldest and breaking breaking seasonable snowfall! Still have all of Feb and even March and who knows maybe some April surprises!

[Geos]

We possibly could be looking at one of the coldest and breaking breaking seasonable snowfall! Still have all of Feb and even March and who knows maybe some April surprises!

 

It's going to have to stay a little warmer to get the best snows, but yeah definitely looking like the harshest winter in a few decades.

 

Cold winter sunset tonight -

 

 

This winter I am ahead of the 2007-2008 winter so far (really jumped up after the February 5-6th storm). Only 36.3" to date then. Not ahead of 2008-2009 yet though. There was 56.0" through the 25th of January.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Could we just frame this please???  2 FEET of snow in the Midwest/GL Region..Epic if this continues!

 

Those folks in Omaha won't have a lot of complaining if this transpires.

 

I still have one of last year's epic mid February GFS runs as my screensaver.  Doesn't look far off from this one haha.

[The Snowman]

Looking for that west to east storm track, maybe delayed a couple days. A few indices indicating the model may have the right idea with the west-east storm track, but they want the storm to hit in February, specifically February 1-5.

[bud2380]

Latest gfs still has the widespread "bowling ball" type system for Friday night into Saturday. Widespread 4-8", the entire state of Iowa showing 4+ that would be sweet

[Geos]

Right now it's looking like the heaviest snow will be in the Plains.