January 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

I know its still about 6 days away, but both the GFS/Euro show a weak SLP tracking through the lower lakes next Monday/Tuesday and this could be a decent chance for LES.  Been watching this for a few days now and it looks very possible to turn winds NNE down the lake Monday night and temps will be very cold during this period.

 

 

 

[Tony]

It really has been a boring stretch the past week or so and it looks like the clipper parade continues which is always a hit or miss never knowing what you are going to get. Looks like we will have to wait at least another week before things start to ramp up and maybe get the branches to phase up a major storm.

[Tom]

The potential storm for the end of January is still showing up on the CFS in the long range.  Surprisingly, it's consistency this far out of even showing a storm is remarkable during that time fram.  What's caught my attention is the magnitude of this storm that the model is now showing this far out which leads me to believe this could end up being a monster storm.  During Cycle 1 of the LRC it was a Blizzard, cycle 2 it was Not (but still dumped FEET of snow in the Northwoods) and cycle 3 is upon us end of January.  Here are some maps from Jan 29-31.

 

 

[Niko]

The potential storm for the end of January is still showing up on the CFS in the long range.  Surprisingly, it's consistency this far out of even showing a storm is remarkable during that time fram.  What's caught my attention is the magnitude of this storm that the model is now showing this far out which leads me to believe this could end up being a monster storm.  During Cycle 1 of the LRC it was a Blizzard, cycle 2 it was Not (but still dumped FEET of snow in the Northwoods) and cycle 3 is upon us end of January.  Here are some maps from Jan 29-31.

Tom..I only see 6inches for my area if I am not mistaken, which doesnt seem like a monster. Correct me if I am not reading this properly. It looks a lot more for the East Coast folks. No?!

[Tom]

The 500mb weather pattern that is being depicted by the models end of January would favor a more west/east storm track.  I believe a lot of us on this board have a higher probability to get snow out of this since there will be plenty of cold air to supply a storm system.

 

Nikos, I wouldn't pay attention to the exact QPF totals right now.  Instead, the fact that there is a storm potential this far out is pretty amazing to see.  GFS was hinting at this storm for a few runs but its now just getting in the long range.  Yes, its Fantasy Land but the LRC is a neat way to predict storms weeks in advance and when they start showing up on the models it makes it that much more fascinating.

[The Snowman]

The 500mb weather pattern that is being depicted by the models end of January would favor a more west/east storm track.  I believe a lot of us on this board have a higher probability to get snow out of this since there will be plenty of cold air to supply a storm system.

 

Nikos, I wouldn't pay attention to the exact QPF totals right now.  Instead, the fact that there is a storm potential this far out is pretty amazing to see.  GFS was hinting at this storm for a few runs but its now just getting in the long range.  Yes, its Fantasy Land but the LRC is a neat way to predict storms weeks in advance and when they start showing up on the models it makes it that much more fascinating.

Agreed that this looks to be more of a W-E track: 12z GFS has ridging in the Gulf of Alaska, but the polar vortex displaced in Canada means more of a zonal flow situation here in the US. That said, things are looking pretty decent for storm prospects here if the recurring system does drop further south than we saw in the December cycle. MREF projections bode well for a system affecting us here as well, with guidance projecting a storm moving over central Japan on the 22nd. The 6-10 day extrapolation would have us arrive at a January 28-February 1 storm timeframe. 

[james1976]

I believe that would be more than 6"

[ChiTownWeather]

Read this article today and thought you guys may be interested, now there will be another weather channel to watch on tv other than TWC. IMO I think Accuweather is very on top of weather patterns, and it will be nice to see it on television

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-announces-the-laun/22055195 

 

 

link did not work for some reason here is another one

http://www.centredaily.com/2014/01/14/3985149/accuweather-to-launch-247-tv-station.html

 

on accuweather's website is the original link

Edited January 16, 2014 by ChiTownWeather

[NEJeremy]

Hey Tom what storm matches up with the LRC that would move a storm through at the end of the month? It seems that would be too long for that storm on October 4th here in Nebraska

[Tom]

LRC cycle is roughly 58-60 days, so the storm being depicted by the CFS is the Oct 3-5 WY/Dakotas Blizzard.

[Geos]

Was in the upper teens today, but it didn't feel that bad outside compared to last week!

[Money]

GFS is epic in terms of cold again.

 

-20 for a high and WC of -40 to -50 again

[Money]

Then right after it has a storm that brings 3-5 inches of snow and next day it's -20 to -30 for a low again.

[Geos]

Looks like the cold is out and in quicker this time around 126-180 hours. (Just over 2 days)

 

Extended looks chilly, but nothing like last week.

[Tom]

PV round 2 baby!  It will be progressive so it doesn't seem like it will stick around for a while but the cold will keep resurging.

[Geos]

I'm wondering if the MJO will throw a wrench into the predicted pattern. It will fight it...

 

 

I see the new teleconnections show a -PNA, +AO, and +NAO towards the 1st. Wondering if the Polar vortex will come down next week; earlier, then leave earlier.

[East Dubzz]

I'm wondering if the MJO will throw a wrench into the predicted pattern. It will fight it...

 

 

I see the new teleconnections show a -PNA, +AO, and +NAO towards the 1st. Wondering if the Polar vortex will come down next week; earlier, then leave earlier.

Yeah, definitely not good signs of a cold dump.

[Tom]

What has driven the cold weather pattern this year...EPO/WPO  EPO is in the tank and that is why the cold pattern will persist. BTW, 00z GFS run on the AO was between -1 & -3.  NAO was negative, to neutral, to deep negative Jan 28th and beyond.

[Geos]

I think the -EPO could break down if the MJO gains enough amplitude. That's a pretty powerful influence in the Pacific once it gets out of the circle.

[NEJeremy]

So the LRC is 55-60 days now? Because a couple of days ago you said Lezak said that the cycle was 55-58 days and now it's 58-60 so it matches up with the storm in October. Just trying to figure all this stuff out! I always thought Lezak had a certain number of days not some range that is almost a week long...

[Tom]

According to Gary Lezak, the cycle is 58 days (give or take a day or two).

[Tom]

Off the charts cold from the 06z GFS...would have ORD below 0 from Jan 26-28...especially if we have a decent snow cover which is looking promising.

 

 

[Geos]

Off the charts cold from the 06z GFS...would have ORD below 0 from Jan 26-28...especially if we have a decent snow cover which is looking promising.

 

I like the snow, but no thanks to that map!

 

Up to 31° currently.

 

Snow cover's enemy... Next Monday showing 40s pushing back northward.

 

[Tom]

Geo's, temps have been knocked down by all the models.  Only showing 32F for Sunday and mid 20's for Monday with another arctic push early next week and more chances for snow.  Trough over the GL will push and keep more sustained cold in our region.

[The Snowman]

Minimum temperatures from the entire 12z GFS run compiled into this image.

 

[Geos]

Geo's, temps have been knocked down by all the models.  Only showing 32F for Sunday and mid 20's for Monday with another arctic push early next week and more chances for snow.  Trough over the GL will push and keep more sustained cold in our region.

 

Didn't look at the numbers until later in the day. -

 

Minimum temperatures from the entire 12z GFS run compiled into this image.

 

gfs_t2x_minimus_conus_65.png

 

Not going to happen south of I-80 without an expansion of snow cover.

 

 

[Tom]

There are still more chances for accumulating snows next week before the arctic plunge.  Next Thu/Fri period looking interesting to lay down more snow.  I think if we can manage to have a 6" snow depth before the Polar Plunge it will be possible to get some double digit sub zero readings if the PV comes down into the Great Lakes.

[Geos]

With the way the GFS is looking that Arctic plunge starts next Tuesday!

[Tom]

Could have single digit highs Tue-Thu and sub zero nights if we can get 2-3" of snow Saturday

[East Dubzz]

The snow this weekend could be huge for that PV visit No. 2.... Dang I wish we all could get in on a big storm!

[DominicR]

Could have single digit highs Tue-Thu and sub zero nights if we can get 2-3" of snow Saturday

 

Ugh sick of cold Tom

[East Dubzz]

Hours 216-384 on the 00z GFS is cold!! Looks like it doesn't have the real polar plunge until towards the end of the month still, so we could still have some more shots at snow before that comes.

[Geos]

This pattern doesn't do anything for me. With the way it's looking the rest of the month, it reminds me of January of 2003 - cold with moisture starved systems. Need some Pacific moisture to liven things up!

 

- Classic GFS, keeps on pushing events further into the future.

[East Dubzz]

This pattern doesn't do anything for me. With the way it's looking the rest of the month, it reminds me of January of 2003 - cold with moisture starved systems. Need some Pacific moisture to liven things up!

 

- Classic GFS, keeps on pushing events further into the future.

But the talk about the return for the PV has always been towards the end of the month. It still brings very cold temps next week...some temps well below 0, but it doesn't bring the true Polar Vortex Part 2 to the US until the end of the month, which is what we thought was the timeframe.

 

Check out how much the 00z run has the AO/NAO tanking:

[Geos]

This chart for the NAO shows nothing like that^.

 

[Tom]

The map Geo's posted are update around 2:00am CST based on the GFS ensembles.  They will probably adjust tonight.  00z GFS run definitely showed a ton of blocking with the PV sitting and spinning in Central Canada near Hudson Bay.  That's actually an ideal spot for it to be to have sustained cold and not deflect systems to the south.  Hopefully the NAO/AO wont dive that much into the tank so we miss out on the systems.

[East Dubzz]

This chart for the NAO shows nothing like that^.

 

Isn't that the GEFS mean? The last GEFS mean is like that, but the 00z run for tonight hasn't updated that. Here is the 18z GEFS mean:

[Money]

Doesn't get above 10 here on the GFS from about HR 96 on.

 

That's insane.

[East Dubzz]

The map Geo's posted are update around 2:00am CST based on the GFS ensembles.  They will probably adjust tonight.  00z GFS run definitely showed a ton of blocking with the PV sitting and spinning in Central Canada near Hudson Bay.  That's actually an ideal spot for it to be to have sustained cold and not deflect systems to the south.  Hopefully the NAO/AO wont dive that much into the tank so we miss out on the systems.

Was thinking the same thing. That type of blocking would just bring cold air and that's it, for a very long time. We don't want that.

[Money]

GFS for OSH (temps at 0z each day)

 

1/20: 12.1

1/21: -6.6

1/22: -3.7

1/23: 5.3

1/24: 0.4

 

then the real cold comes after that