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January 2014 Observations and Discussion


DominicR

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00z GFS coming in colder for next weekends arctic attack and PV farther west now north of Lake Superior.  The past few runs it had the Dakota's largely above freezing, now those places are subzero.  Is this the correction that was expected by the GFS???  I think so.

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I hope the GFS takes that vortex back east. Given the teleconnections changing by then, I think this is an eastern Lakes attack.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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3-7" for Gary now forecasted.

 

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I see lows start hitting the Pacific Northwest again after the Sunday-Monday cold shot. That should be the first signal that things are changing around. - falling PNA.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS just can't seem to make up its dang mind. Now basically showing a neutral AO/NAO in the long range. Still gonna have to side with the GEFS for now, which is showing a positive spike. And even with a neutral AO/NAO, the EPO/WPO have been consistent with the GEFS staying pretty much neutral as well. Just don't think we're going to see another polar plunge as strong as the last one. There may be one, but I doubt we see anything as strong as last time. Of course, it's weather and things can change dramatically. We'll see, though.

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LES setup definitely looks prime for Lake County, Indiana. I wouldn't be surprised if LOT pulls the trigger on the watch overnight. Even eastern and southern cook county should get in the action also. They may need at least an advisory maybe even a watch.

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GFS just can't seem to make up its dang mind. Now basically showing a neutral AO/NAO in the long range. Still gonna have to side with the GEFS for now, which is showing a positive spike. And even with a neutral AO/NAO, the EPO/WPO have been consistent with the GEFS staying pretty much neutral as well. Just don't think we're going to see another polar plunge as strong as the last one. There may be one, but I doubt we see anything as strong as last time. Of course, it's weather and things can change dramatically. We'll see, though.

 

PNA will be key. That falls, then we see a totally different storm track and jet stream configuration. A neutral AO would be fine. Usually don't get really cold with a neutral AO.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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PNA will be key. That falls, then we see a totally different storm track and jet stream configuration. A neutral AO would be fine. Usually don't get really cold with a neutral AO.

Yeah, was going to just mention that as well. The GEFS has been very consistent in dropping that to the negative phase towards the end of the month. 

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-PNA is also good for GL Cutters/OV systems...SE Ridge will be in play and that increases chances for bigger storm systems in our region.  One thing to keep in mind, is the LRC had many storms systems in the Plains/Midwest/GL coming through the next 4-5 weeks in cycle 3 and that is probably why we are seeing the PNA plunging.  Cycle 3 is almost upon us and this change is because of it.

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-PNA is also good for GL Cutters/OV systems...SE Ridge will be in play and that increases chances for bigger storm systems in our region.  One thing to keep in mind, is the LRC had many storms systems in the Plains/Midwest/GL coming through the next 4-5 weeks in cycle 3 and that is probably why we are seeing the PNA plunging.  Cycle 3 is almost upon us and this change is because of it.

Yeah, I could definitely see some storms moving through the area, just not the really cold air. And storms could be nice, especially if the AO/NAO was neutral. Keep some of the cold air down here as a cutter develops.

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The 00z GGEM has caught my attention for Saturday's Clipper that forms along the arctic front.  It showed a very potent Clipper a couple days ago and now both GFS/GGEM are onto something.  I wouldn't be surprised if this does transpire as it would fit the pattern especially right before a major arctic attack.

 

Also, there may be one more chance for some LES this Wed/Thu as that wave forms in the GL and would produce some more snow.  18z NAM had the idea also.

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Looks like another visit from the PV is in the works.  If we can get a deeper snow pack with these Clippers this week it could be even colder than the Jan 3-6 event.

 

00z GGEM showing high temps next Monday teens below zero!  That's would be insane.

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Looks like the end of the GEM is picking up on some type of event in it's fantasy land area. Has a more of a west-east movement to it but starts to cut a little more NE towards the end as the upper level flow takes it that way, although it is more of a zonal flow, but some diggin taking place

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I just calculated the number of hours subzero on the GGEM and it would be roughly 42 hours!  Longer than the 1st visit of the PV....subzero from 00z Mon thu 18z Tue.

 

East Dubzz, that system would be in the range of the storm I've been talking about that is a part of the beginning of cycle 3 of the LRC.  Both GGEM/GFS showing it now and CFS is showing a raging Blizzard in the region.  This potential storm was the Oct 3-5 Blizzard in Cycle 1.

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I just calculated the number of hours subzero on the GGEM and it would be roughly 42 hours!  Longer than the 1st visit of the PV....subzero from 00z Mon thu 18z Tue.

 

East Dubzz, that system would be in the range of the storm I've been talking about that is a part of the beginning of cycle 3 of the LRC.  Both GGEM/GFS showing it now and CFS is showing a raging Blizzard in the region.  This potential storm was the Oct 3-5 Blizzard in Cycle 1.

What are the wind chills like? Much wind associated with this?

 

Interesting to see that pop up now. What worries me, though, and some teleconnections are showing this, is a possible lack of blocking/cold air up north. Would hate for it to be a rain-maker.

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Winds don't look like they will be all that bad like last time.  This would be a very cold High Pressure that comes into the region and that is prob why the model is trending colder.  Snowpack, light winds, clear skies...radiational cooling is most effective this way.

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Winds don't look like they will be all that bad like last time.  This would be a very cold High Pressure that comes into the region and that is prob why the model is trending colder.  Snowpack, light winds, clear skies...radiational cooling is most effective this way.

That's true. In 2009, there were very little winds but it reached -30 at least two nights in a row that I can remember because radiational cooling was allowed to take place. I wouldn't be surprised to see some places looking at -20/-25 if the cold air really does come down like that. There are some places with some nice snow cover around here, including my town.

 

Edit: Just looking at the text data from the 00z GFS, it shows -28.4 degrees F at the surface at 6 am Monday morning.

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00z Euro showing that potent Clipper coming out of Saskatchewan, CA as well...another Saskatchewan Screamer in the works???

 

It starts off as a strong 994mb SLP in Saskatchewan and intensifies into a 989mb SLP once near MN/WI!  That's one strong Clipper.  Track is obviously going to adjust but this could be another big snow event for the Midwest.

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It's going to be an active week tracking all these Clippers and finishing off with a strong one this weekend will be the icing on the cake in this Clipper train pattern we have been in.

 

Lol, I just saw that when you posted the map above.  Spoke to soon.... ;)

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Yes indeed, there it is developing over the Pan Handle of Texas as an intensifying 997mb SLP...I like the fact that there is an arctic High to the north feeding cold air into the system.  Fits the pattern so we should have cold air with this system.

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Yes indeed, there it is developing over the Pan Handle of Texas as an intensifying 997mb SLP...I like the fact that there is an arctic High to the north feeding cold air into the system.  Fits the pattern so we should have cold air with this system.

Yeah, I mean long range here so it doesn't mean much, but it is showing some high pressure up north and here is the 500mb levels at that time:

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Gosh, this is really looking like it may become a repeat of GHD Blizzard of Feb '11.  Still lots of time to sort things out but the pieces to the puzzle are there just need it to phase into the monster it has the potential to become.  This week is certainly going to be fun tracking all types of weather related stories that will be making headlines this week.  Not only just 1 BUT 2 major arctic blasts, Clipper after Clipper and possibly a major storm impacting the Plains/Midwest/GL the following week.

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Clipper train will eventually die with the changing teleconnections. Models over did the lows in some areas during the last blast of cold air. Probably over doing them this time too, especially closer to the lakes. Hopefully the north winds tomorrow night will keep some clouds in.

 

For the short term; Cook and Lake County look good for a decent amount of snow. RPM favoring eastern Cook actually.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I just made a thread for the Clipper and the LES event over the next couple of days. The cold the models are showing long range are absolutely brutal. It seems like it's the consensus that Monday January 27th will be the coldest.

 

At least we get a break on Friday and Saturday. These cold blasts will become shorter lived as we move into next month.

Pretty much disagree with the extended range currently up.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Big cities on the East Coast are about to get a big snowstorm tomorrow into Wednesday morning with 6-12 inches. Cities that will get heavy snow and strong winds are DC, Philly, NYC and possibly Boston. Bullseye I think will be from DC, CNJ NYC and Long Island. Blizzard watches could be posted later on today.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z Euro Clipper for Saturday...still looking strong.  Another one right on its heals!  This is a fascinating pattern developing over the upcoming week.  The stronger Clippers poised to hit the region this Sat and Monday will be high snow ratio events with temps in the low/mid teens.  Check out the precip totals being projected.  I wouldn't be surprised if some areas by early next week will have over a Foot of new snow on the ground.

 

 

 

 

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Polar air is booking it by Day 10 on the EURO. Ridge squashed and what looks like a Chinook wind develops.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Share on other sites

Polar air is booking it by Day 10 on the EURO. Ridge squashed and what looks like a Chinook wind develops.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012012/noram/ecmwf_t850_noram_41.png

Is this the first run the Euro has shown this and if so then we need some consistency to buy into this.

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