January 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

The Plains may get warm and even western portions of the Midwest if this verifies, but I think the GL are still in a cold pattern.

[East Dubzz]

What's a Chinook wind?

[Tom]

Downsloping winds off the Rockies...

[East Dubzz]

Downsloping winds off the Rockies...

Oh okay, I see it now. Thanks.

[DominicR]

Oh okay, I see it now. Thanks.

 Plains and even here get baked when that happens

[East Dubzz]

Plains and even here get baked when that happens

Is that literally or figuratively??? Lol...

[DominicR]

Is that literally or figuratively??? Lol...

 

Lol just saying it warms the Plains in spring/summer with impressive heat when that happens and even far east as here.

[East Dubzz]

Lol just saying it warms the Plains in spring/summer with impressive heat when that happens and even far east as here.

Lol I know what you meant... I mean you said we get "baked"... And it's from Colorado.. Marijuana joke. Haha

[james1976]

haha this forum has a "like" button. epic

[Geos]

Is this the first run the Euro has shown this and if so then we need some consistency to buy into this.

 

PNA going positive. It has been forecasted well this winter. I think it stays seasonable overall, but I could see some 40s working there way into the area the first several days of February.

 

-PNA means SW flow pattern for the Midwest.

[The Snowman]

Will probably be warm in the first week of February before we see the chance for another intense cold snap February 7-10 or so. Beyond then and into Mid February, I wouldn't be surprised to see the -PNA set up shop again and our Midwestern snow chances increase as a result.

[Tom]

18z GFS bringing the PV farther west and its getting even colder for early next week.  It's amazing to see how much this model flip flops when it initially did signal a colder regime then back off and now bringing back the mother load of cold to the same places that saw it in early January.  Mother Nature just wants to ring the same tune all winter long.

[LincWeath]

Yes indeed, there it is developing over the Pan Handle of Texas as an intensifying 997mb SLP...I like the fact that there is an arctic High to the north feeding cold air into the system.  Fits the pattern so we should have cold air with this system.

What time frame would this fit Tom? Mid next week? If so would this be a posibility that SE Nebraska could get clipped? Or still to far out to tell?

[Tom]

Still to far to tell where the storm track sets up but the time frame will be towards the last days of January.  I must say, it seems it may develop a little to far to the south as it sits right now but NE may get some initial snows that develop out ahead of the main system.  Looks like it will be a lower lakes Cutter for the time being.

[Tom]

Just saw this post from JB comparing GFS Ensemble run 10 days ago to today's run for Jan 25h...you be the judge and see for yourself.

 

[james1976]

GFS got rid of the big storm for the end of the month. Hopefully it will come back.

[Geos]

GFS actually pushed the cold shot further into the future, by about a day if anyone noticed. Now Sunday doesn't look all the bad until the evening.

 

Indexes over the past 3 days. Basically a neutral NAO now.

 

AO: -2.12, -2.36, -2.40

NAO: -1.04, -0.17, -0.02

PNA: 1.36, 1.23, 1.10

[DominicR]

Skilling blog mentions 4-8 inches of additional snow over next 7 days with parade of clippers coming through.

[Niko]

East coast about to get hammered today and tonight. New York City and out on the island will be in the brunt of this storm with accumulations over a foot of snow with near blizzard conditions. Other cities such as Washington DC, Philly and Boston are in for a lot of snow too. Brutal temps there during the storm, probably in the low teens.

[Sciascia]

Well, on to the next one(s). Clipper train keeps a rollin' all night long!

[Tony]

Next one in line looks impressive on radar....should be some nice high ratio fluff snow.

[james1976]

looks like our big storm potential for end of january has disappeared.

[Niko]

looks like our big storm potential for end of january has disappeared.

I heard that it will be a major snowstorm for the east coast instead. Still plenty of time for models to bring the storm back.

[Sciascia]

EDIT: Wrong thread.

 

Would rather see the storm in these parts than during the Super Bowl.

[East Dubzz]

Haven't had a chance to look at the models... What they showing for the cold next week?

[Tom]

The LRC pattern had a ridge developing over the east coast leading up to the Super Bowl so I wouldn't discount a storm around here just yet.  There will be model flip flopping over the coming days.

[Tom]

The closer we get till next week, the colder the models are getting.  GFS is ridiculously cold and Euro is even more impressive early next week and beyond.  Models as usual, tend to underestimate the cold air, especially if its "origin" is across the pole in Siberia.  Chiberia round 2???

[Tony]

What is the Euro showing as far as snow amounts from these clippers?

[Tom]

12z Euro through Sunday...figuring 20:1 ratios, your looking pretty good everywhere in the Midwest/GL region.

 

 

 

[Geos]

The closer we get till next week, the colder the models are getting.  GFS is ridiculously cold and Euro is even more impressive early next week and beyond.  Models as usual, tend to underestimate the cold air, especially if its "origin" is across the pole in Siberia.  Chiberia round 2???

 

I don't know... the EURO over did the cold the first time around (especially at night). I actually would add several degrees. Models are going to fluctuate with that changing AO and PNA.

[Tom]

The bitter cold coming looks to stick around longer this time around instead of leaving in 2-3 days.  Sustained cold following the Polar air looks to stay entrenched.

[Geos]

At least by mid week the air is originating from western Canada as opposed to the Arctic circle or Siberia! lol

 

I can deal with 850mb temperatures above -10°C. Probably would mean temps averaging in the upper teens.

[ChicagoToSeattle]

Hi All -- First time poster, but long time lurker. I may have recently moved to the Pacific Northwest but I will always follow the weather in Chicago/MKE.

Thought it would be interesting to see where this month's snow at ORD ranks relative to the snowiest months:

1. 1918: 42.5

2. 1979: 40.4

3. 1978: 32.3

4. 2014: 29.7

5. 1999: 29.6

 

I vividly remember both 78 and 79 as that is when my interest in weather (snow in particular) really took shape. Given that there are still 10 days remaining in the month, the possibility of hitting #3 is very good.

Any guesses where ORD will end up?

[Tony]

The winters of "78-"79 bring back alot of fond memories for sure. I think we will break the "78 record by the end of this weekend.

[DominicR]

Hi All -- First time poster, but long time lurker. I may have recently moved to the Pacific Northwest but I will always follow the weather in Chicago/MKE.

Thought it would be interesting to see where this month's snow at ORD ranks relative to the snowiest months:

1. 1918: 42.5

2. 1979: 40.4

3. 1978: 32.3

4. 2014: 29.7

5. 1999: 29.6

 

I vividly remember both 78 and 79 as that is when my interest in weather (snow in particular) really took shape. Given that there are still 10 days remaining in the month, the possibility of hitting #3 is very good.

Any guesses where ORD will end up?

 

Welcome and thanks for coming. I do agree that ORD will probably end up #3. I see Wed clipper biringing another inch or two and clipper this weekend but that one might be south of us. We still have few days after that. Well at the least it will be very close.

[Tom]

I agree with Tony & Dominick, #3 should be broken by the end of the weekend.  On the other hand, looking long range, that storm around Jan 30/31 still has a chance in developing and if its another big storm we can break the all time snowiest January on record.  Also, the Clipper coming on Wed/Thu has a chance to bring LES and we all know what that can do to snowfall totals.

 

This question is for Tony & ChicagoToSeattle, did the '78/'79 Winter have many LehS/LES events like we are having this year???  It wouldn't surprise me if it did since that was a really cold winter as well and with a NW Flow, many Clippers probably hit the region.

[gosaints]

Anyone got maps for just how cold the EURO gets?

[Tony]

^I wasn't too in tune back then of how we got all the snow but I do remember that it seemed like every couple days we received 2"- 4" which I believe back then constituted a winter storm warning. Most of these were probably clippers but of course we had at least 2 or 3 pretty big system snows that were prob enhanced by the lake. I remember we were shoveling rooftops because of the extreme heavy and accumulated snows which I have not seen done in these parts since. I really cannot remember if we had a true LES snow especially not like what we have had so far this year.

 

Edit: Gary, IN was always getting nailed back then and continues to this day so if you like LE snow Gary was/is the place to be.

[Tom]

Here is next Mon/Tue/Wed nights....

 

 

[BLIZZARD09]

I agree with Tony & Dominick, #3 should be broken by the end of the weekend.  On the other hand, looking long range, that storm around Jan 30/31 still has a chance in developing and if its another big storm we can break the all time snowiest January on record.  Also, the Clipper coming on Wed/Thu has a chance to bring LES and we all know what that can do to snowfall totals.

 

This question is for Tony & ChicagoToSeattle, did the '78/'79 Winter have many LehS/LES events like we are having this year???  It wouldn't surprise me if it did since that was a really cold winter as well and with a NW Flow, many Clippers probably hit the region.

The snows that winter were almost all classic southwest storms--very few clippers and almost no lake snow