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2/19-20 Winter Storm


gabel23

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Looking at a possible small window of intense snow rates and strong winds around these parts. Most models latched onto this last night and will see if things continue. Hastings NWS mentions the possibility of thunder snow. It won't last long in our area but there could be a chance of seeing near blizzard conditions for a few hours! 

 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK
MORE IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT IN OUR AREA
SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z
GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM...ALONG WITH THE NOW 06Z NAM ALL INDICATE
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE DYNAMICS ARE GOOD WITH
THIS WAVE INCLUDING STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND IMPRESSIVE LIFT/OMEGA
VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS POST FRONTAL AND IN THE COLD SECTOR
MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY START AS RAIN IN
SOME AREAS...IT SHOULD VERY QUICKLY TURN OVER TO SNOW. SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY (CSI) AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME OUTRIGHT ELEVATED WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS WILL BE A RATHER INTENSE BAND OF SNOW...IT
MAY NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER INTENSE
WHEN IT COMES THROUGH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOMEONE SEEING THUNDER SNOW
IN THIS SET UP. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG WHEN THE SNOW
COMES THROUGH WITH 850MB WINDS LIKELY AROUND OR OVER 50 KTS.
EXPECT
WE COULD VERY WELL BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITHIN THE SNOW
BAND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. THIS IS
CERTAINLY A STORM SYSTEM TO PAY ATTENTION TO IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS THURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY ENTER OUR WESTERN
ZONES AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT OUR
EASTERN ZONES BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. TIMING MAY VARY
SOME AS WE GET CLOSER...BUT BASED ON OUR CURRENT DATA THIS IS OUR
BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME.

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The short duration of the event has me worried, and I'm a little pissed that the timing for my area will guarantee I don't get to see the intense snow band move through.  I would be a lot more excited if this came through in the afternoon or evening.  It should hit my area of the state in the very middle of the night at like 3 A.M.  Horrible timing.  What good is a snow event if I don't even get to go outside and enjoy it?  Still waiting for a REAL winter storm.  I'm dreaming of a Colorado Low.

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It sickens me the lack of comments in here. I'm trying to pull some people from Chicago solely for their insight but they pretty much disregard every single one of my comments lol. Oh well. Maybe we can make this section of the forum bigger somehow. Anyway, the RAP is insanely jacked up for Nebraska. 40dbz returns for 3 hours almost. I wouldn't be surprised to see higher than 2-3"!

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It sickens me the lack of comments in here. I'm trying to pull some people from Chicago solely for their insight but they pretty much disregard every single one of my comments lol. Oh well. Maybe we can make this section of the forum bigger somehow. Anyway, the RAP is insanely jacked up for Nebraska. 40dbz returns for 3 hours almost. I wouldn't be surprised to see higher than 2-3"!

 

RAP is always over jacked so I trust it it with grain of salt. Sorry man. I know. Most people are to interested in there location than general area. Hopefully as spring comes around and severe wx gets busy we can get some more members from this area to come join us.

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RAP is always over jacked so I trust it it with grain of salt. Sorry man. I know. Most people are to interested in there location than general area. Hopefully as spring comes around and severe wx gets busy we can get some more members from this area to come join us.

I don't know, I would say it's lining up pretty darn close to that! Heavy wet pasty snow right now. Coming down hard; Iowa and up into Wisconsin are going to have one heck of a storm. Even Lincoln/Omaha you guys are in for a huge surprise. WSW is one county away from Omaha and snowfall forecast has gone up. Here is a Meso discussion about the heavy snow setting up: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

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Had some sleet mixing in here a while ago. I'm worried about the speed of the system being even faster than projected. It's flying east on radar. I hope the deformation band sets up soon enough where we start to get snow thrown back at us and moving more south to north as there is snow all the way down to Kansas.

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It's coming down pretty good here. Pretty big fat flakes. Definitely seen harder snow before and I haven't had any thundersnow here. Looks like maybe 1.5" so far here

 

Wow. I saw pictures out there and man those are some fat flakes. We have not or at least where I am not have seen fat flakes like that in quite awhile.

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Wow.  12Z GFS buries most of Nebraska with over 1 ft. of snow in the next 2 weeks.  We just need one of these storms to slow down and really strengthen.  Almost blizzard conditions for a short amount of time in Holdrege between 5-6:30 yielded a little over 1". It was hard to see across the street for about 1 hour this morning. Most smaller school districts had late starts due to the slick road conditions and reduced visibility.  It is already melting off pretty quickly here around noon.  Several more chances in the coming days and looking like a rather impressive storm towards the Feb. 28-Mar 2 time frame.

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I hope that verifies. This storm was pretty disappointing. Really thought we were going to get around 4" and have some incredible snow rates. I'd say the highest rates were around 1". It's been snowing since around 815-830 and we don't even have more than 1.5". temps have already risen back up to 35 now that the rates are slower. might be able to get to 2".

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I knew this would be disappointing, but like CentrNebWeather said the GFS gives us plenty of opportunities for big snows.  Whether or not we actually get a dang thing is another story.  Not holding my breath the way this season has gone!  Hope for the best! 

 

12Z GFS through March 5th

 

Maybe the classic Colorado Low will finally make an appearance.

 

post-133-0-29076200-1392924053_thumb.gif

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The rate was great, but the air was too warm, the ground was too warm, and the duration was too short.  Put those ingrediants together and you get.... LET DOWN!  The snow didn't even last 10 hours on the ground.

Came down hard for maybe 2 hrs and was gone in one! Intense when it was coming down but just didn't amt to much of anything; story of this winter.....

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