TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Where's all this warm water coming from? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Good question. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Good question.I'm stumped. Don't see evidence of any major oceanic KW, and unlikely to be a result of instability waves or convergence, according to the surface-current datasets. Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 I'm stumped. Don't see evidence of any major oceanic KW, and unlikely to be a result of instability waves or convergence, according to the surface-current datasets. Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess. Also looks like the most of the Earth has warmer than normal ocean water. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 This would only make sense if there were some sort of unnatural force warming the entire globe...but that is crazy talk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Also looks like the most of the Earth has warmer than normal ocean water.Yeah, classic for off-equator SSTAs to go nuclear following a super-niño. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Or natural forces warming the entire globe. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Or natural forces warming the entire globe.This was the first super niño to occur/superimpose itself on the very warm 2001-present background state, so yeah it's definitely a different look. Global SSTAs should drop significantly over the next several years, however. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 This was the first super niño to occur/superimpose itself on the very warm 2001-present background state, so yeah it's definitely a different look. Global SSTAs should drop significantly over the next several years, however. Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Haha, we'll see I guess. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 This would only make sense if there were some sort of unnatural force warming the entire globe...but that is crazy talk.It's aliens.. or the NWO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Where's all this warm water coming from? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.pngThe blob is feeding it.........we're screwed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 It's Godzilla, guys. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 The blob is feeding it.........we're screwed.I thought the blob was annihilated by all that tropical churning last week??? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 That is and always will be a challenge here... Even if we do get moisture then we often have to deal with the puget sound rain shadow. Albeit it always keeps us guessing. Bring on the frost we can count on that for sure. You're only referring to recent years. It used to be much more common. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Nino3.4 has gone positive for the first time since early July. WTF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Nino3.4 has gone positive for the first time since early July. WTF I doubt it, CPC has it at -0.6 on 9/14 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Nino3.4 has gone positive for the first time since early July. WTFWhat's your source? It's showing negative for me still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 What's your source? It's showing negative for me still.Maybe this is way off. Not sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 Yikes..could the CDAS data be flawed in some way? Trades have been stronger than average, subsurface is quite cold, yet.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 23, 2016 Report Share Posted September 23, 2016 The NOAA/OSPO data is cooler overall, but still depicts a notable ENSO warming: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 The NOAA/OSPO data is cooler overall, but still depicts a notable ENSO warming: It appears there was a small chunk of warm water just below the surface that the recent TW burst must have forced up. The warming should be very short lived. No doubt I'm surprised by it though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 It appears there was a small chunk of warm water just below the surface that the recent TW burst must have forced up. The warming should be very short lived. No doubt I'm surprised by it though.I'm not sure about that, because the subsurface waters are colder than the surface waters (even during Niños), and are certainly colder now. I'm thinking it might have something to do with the oceanic rossby wave packet sandwiched to the N/S of the equatorial waters, but that's just a guess and I could be wrong. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 I'm not sure about that, because the subsurface waters are colder than the surface waters (even during Niños), and are certainly colder now. I'm thinking it might have something to do with the oceanic rossby wave packet sandwiched to the N/S of the equatorial waters, but that's just a guess and I could be wrong. That is a good point. When I was looking at the subsurface map it showed a small chunk of anomalous warm water, but it still could have actually been cooler than anything on the surface. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 That is a good point. When I was looking at the subsurface map it showed a small chunk of anomalous warm water, but it still could have actually been cooler than anything on the surface.Yeah, the shallow "warm anomaly bubble" that just popped up below the surface (probably) indicates a lack of upwelling in that region, hence the warming SSTs. The question is, what's inhibiting the upwelling? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Yeah, the shallow "warm anomaly bubble" that just popped up below the surface (probably) indicates a lack of upwelling in that region, hence the warming SSTs. The question is, what's inhibiting the upwelling? My guess is the recent and ongoing trade wind burst will change things soon enough. I'm betting Nino 3.4 will be -1.0 within a couple of weeks. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 My guess is the recent and ongoing trade wind burst will change things soon enough. I'm betting Nino 3.4 will be -1.0 within a couple of weeks. Not likely. Its been warming considerably over the last week. You have been saying 'soon enough' for a long time and its not happening. Still like the prospects for this winter though. http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 It is interesting looking at the 7 day change map. It appears the areas north and south of the ENSO region have dropped in the Central and Eastern Pacific. The warm water that has been built up over those areas may have collapsed into the ENSO regions thus causing the rapid warming. It's also noteworthy Nino 1+2 and part of 3 have dropped. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Haha, what in the hell http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Haha, what in the hell http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.pngThrough those cold ENSO analogues out the window. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted September 24, 2016 Report Share Posted September 24, 2016 Are there any good articles out there explaining what's causing the warming in the ENSO region? Probably a question only Phil would know the answer to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Are there any good articles out there explaining what's causing the warming in the ENSO region? Probably a question only Phil would know the answer to.I have no idea..maybe some sort of inertial ocean-based wave? Perhaps a minor KW or ORW? Velocity Potential is reflective of Niña forcing, so the only explanation I can think of (that works) is something of a fluid-mechanical nature. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Upper level VPs = Niña cell: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-09/B9E5C147-7BC1-411C-BB0C-1200EEBF73B3_zpsowqrrr0u.gif Lower level VPs = Niña cell: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-09/67A58D90-D306-4039-9419-9BB0BAA342BF_zpsz6rlniur.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 I have no idea..maybe some sort of inertial ocean-based wave? Perhaps a minor KW or ORW? Velocity Potential is reflective of Niña forcing, so the only explanation I can think of (that works) is something of a fluid-mechanical nature. One thing for sure is it doesn't mean a Nino is coming. The atmosphere has been very Ninaish. My theory is the warm water that had been hanging out just N and S of the ENSO area flooded into the 5N to 5S region. It could mean the Nina will cover a wider belt after this is over. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Through those cold ENSO analogues out the window.This is jumping the gun just a bit, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 One thing for sure is it doesn't mean a Nino is coming. The atmosphere has been very Ninaish. My theory is the warm water that had been hanging out just N and S of the ENSO area flooded into the 5N to 5S region. It could mean the Nina will cover a wider belt after this is over. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 One thing for sure is it doesn't mean a Nino is coming. The atmosphere has been very Ninaish. My theory is the warm water that had been hanging out just N and S of the ENSO area flooded into the 5N to 5S region. It could mean the Nina will cover a wider belt after this is over. I really don't think so.... just my opinion.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 Through those cold ENSO analogues out the window. Nah. It will turn cold again very soon. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 I really don't think so.... just my opinion.... It's the only place that warm water could have come from. The subsurface is cold, the trade winds have been above normal, and the atmosphere has been in a full blown Nina mode. The one thing has struck me about the Nina is how narrow the strip of cold anoms have been and how warm it's been just N and S of the 5N to 5S belt. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 25, 2016 Report Share Posted September 25, 2016 This is jumping the gun just a bit, IMO.It was mostly a joke. The -0.5 to -0.8 that I was originally thinking might be a little hopeful now though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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