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snow_wizard

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It was mostly a joke. The -0.5 to -0.8 that I was originally thinking might be a little hopeful now though.

 

This is certainly weird.  I've never seen it behave like this.  The SOI has skyrocketed in the last few weeks and now the SST's shoot up like we're going into a Nino.  This cold event has featured quick hitting warm spikes from the beginning though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This is certainly weird. I've never seen it behave like this. The SOI has skyrocketed in the last few weeks and now the SST's shoot up like we're going into a Nino. This cold event has featured quick hitting warm spikes from the beginning though.

What would you do if we actually go into a Nino?

2013/2014 Winter season

Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th

Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th

Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th

Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th

Days below freezing: 5

Total Snowfall: 11 inches

Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches

Days With Snow: 3

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What would you do if we actually go into a Nino?

 

Vomit. :lol:

 

I'm not worried about it though.  Essentially impossible given the context and the current subsurface profile.  Ironically the CFS has trended considerably colder for Nino 3.4 for the early part of the winter in recent days.  I still say -0.5 to -1.0 for December.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Ho hum. 3.4 is up to +0.42C today. Though, it looks like it's about to level off and then hopefully start dropping soon.

 

My bet is it will crash.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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My bet is it will crash.

 

I think what is potentially important is that the feeder regions, the areas along the coast north and south of the nino region, are both cooling off with time. That is a good sign for eventually cooling off the SSTAs in 3.4 as that water will eventually move into the area. I would imagine those water are normally cooler than average during ninas. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I think what is potentially important is that the feeder regions, the areas along the coast north and south of the nino region, are both cooling off with time. That is a good sign for eventually cooling off the SSTAs in 3.4 as that water will eventually move into the area. I would imagine those water are normally cooler than average during ninas. 

 

I agree.  That kind of dovetails with my theory of why Nino 3.4 rose so dramatically when it really shouldn't have.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I agree.  That kind of dovetails with my theory of why Nino 3.4 rose so dramatically when it really shouldn't have.

 

The trade winds do cause upwelling along the equator but without the cool water in the feeder regions you tend to have limited cooling potential, or in other words, what we have seen up to this point. The cooling is restricted to a few degrees north or south of the equator. 

 

But now with those feeder regions cooling off it should allow for a more robust cooling if the strong easterlies can continue, and to a much greater N/S potential. It makes a v shape which is widest near the Americas. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Really looking like a weak Nino in the eastern half of the ENSO region... more so in the last couple weeks.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

 

 

 

Warming across the entire ENSO region continues...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Really looking like a weak Nino in the eastern half of the ENSO region... more so in the last couple weeks.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

 

 

 

Warming across the entire ENSO region continues...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

This is currently a west-based Nina, which is better for us anyways.

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Official CPC weeklies show 3.4 up to a -0.4c anomaly. 1.2 in the eastern Pacific is at +0.8c.

 

Looking like a pretty neutral ENSO setup. 

 

It will be interesting to see where winter ends up.  I'm still thinking weak Nina.  Nino 3.4 began to fall again today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Somewhat interesting that despite the recent warming, the CFSv2 has been steadily trending colder for Nov-Jan over the past week or so.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

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Somewhat interesting that despite the recent warming, the CFSv2 has been steadily trending colder for Nov-Jan over the past week or so.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

Interesting, but I thought the CFSv2 was garbage at predicting ENSO. Unless it's showing something we want to see, of course.

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Great discussion for the upcoming winter:

 

http://southernindianaweather.com/wx/2016-17-preliminary-winter-forecast/

 

Pretty much agrees with us here: more opportunities for cold snaps this season than recent winters.

A bunch of the analogs they're using don't make sense to me.

 

I see a bunch of moderate to strong Niños, and even a greater quantity of -QBOs.

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I was just going to mention the CFS trend on ENSO. Positive we probably don't want it to go strong anyway, but a solidly weak Nina would be good.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Check that Phil. The years on the analog maps are for the end of winter (Jan-Feb), not Dec....so, their years look to be mostly cool ENSO.

Got me. Was looking at the US grid plots earlier where DJF averages require the first year to be inputted.

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http://theweek.com/speedreads/651796/west-coast-expect-warm-winters-rest-century--east-coast-frigid-snowstorms

 

What you think of this silly article? Claims west coast will have warm winters rest of the century, while the east coasts basks in cold & snow. I swear Joe Bastardized wrote this!

 

Good luck with that! :lol:

 

He is probably the worst offender when it comes to being a homie.  In actuality we are due for the pendulum to swing toward colder winters in the West.  I would never go so far as to say it will be cold in the West until the end of time though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Good luck with that! :lol:

 

He is probably the worst offender when it comes to being a homie. In actuality we are due for the pendulum to swing toward colder winters in the West. I would never go so far as to say it will be cold in the West until the end of time though.

You sure about that? Last winter was an eastern blowtorch, and 2014/15 was also a torch until February/March. Also, 2012/13, and 2011/12 were both eastern blowtorches, along with 2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08, and most of 2008/09.

 

I think we're more due than you guys. ;)

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You sure about that? Last winter was an eastern blowtorch, and 2014/15 was also a torch until February/March. Also, 2012/13, and 2011/12 were both eastern blowtorches, along with 2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08, and most of 2008/09.

 

I think we're more due than you guys. ;)

 

Are you serious?  After 2013-14 and 2014-15.  I remember hearing endless stories about Niagara Falls being frozen, coldest winter on record for the upper Midwest, etc.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Are you serious? After 2013-14 and 2014-15. I remember hearing endless stories about Niagara Falls being frozen, coldest winter on record for the upper Midwest, etc.

What about the record warmth in 2011/12 and 2015/16?

 

December in particular has been ridiculously warm in the east since 2011. Literally five consecutive torches.

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Yeah, it's actually been a nasty stretch here, outside 2013/14 and 2014/15. Blowtorch for five consecutive Decembers, two of our five warmest winters on record, four of our seven hottest summers on record, etc.

 

Snowfall is another story, but that's 90% storm track and luck...any storm that tracks to our south during Jan/Feb will produce snowfall here. Sometimes our coldest winters are the least snowy.

At least you guys had a few epic years in the mix. We have not enjoyed such a thing.

 

And generally warmer years overall are to be expected with global warming.

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The east has had some historically cold winters in the last five years.

Yeah, and we've had some historic blowtorches as well. Last winter was our second warmest all time (warmest ever in my city), and 2011/12 was our 4th warmest all time. Not to mention the December ridiculousness. It's not even a winter month anymore..March/April have been more wintry than December in recent years (these two months have been cooling exponentially in recent years here), then it's right into torch season...we skip right over Spring now. It used to be my favorite season. :rolleyes:

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You sure about that? Last winter was an eastern blowtorch, and 2014/15 was also a torch until February/March. Also, 2012/13, and 2011/12 were both eastern blowtorches, along with 2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08, and most of 2008/09.

 

I think we're more due than you guys. ;)

 

How so? The vast majority of our recent winters have been warm. Relative to average, we haven't seen a winter as cold as 2014-15 was in the Northeast in a long time. 

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At least you guys had a few epic years in the mix. We have not enjoyed such a thing.

 

And generally warmer years overall are to be expected with global warming.

True, but I doubt a few degrees of warming can explain these variances. Our seasons are being pushed back...our autumn months are now October-December, our winter months are January-April, then we get a few weeks in May and/or early June to enjoy Spring before the blast furnace takes over until late September.

 

It snowed in May this year, and it was 95 degrees here until a week ago. Just stupid. I want normal seasons back.

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How so? The vast majority of our recent winters have been warm. Relative to average, we haven't seen a winter as cold as 2014-15 was in the Northeast in a long time.

I agree you're more due for extreme cold and/or a significant Arctic blast. However, we've had just as many "warm" winters as you guys over the last decade. Just saying. :)

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I agree you're more due for extreme cold and/or a significant Arctic blast. However, we've had just as many "warm" winters as you guys over the last decade.

 

And as has been reiterated to death, we've probably also had a bit more regional repetition in our annual woes progression here. The east at least had impressive cold in December in 2010, which is still recent, and then years like 2000 and 1989. January has been almost perpetually warm here for decades now and you have to go back to 1980 to find a historically impressive one for us. 

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And as has been reiterated to death, we've probably also had a bit more regional repetition in our annual woes progression here. The east at least had impressive cold in December in 2010, which is still recent, and then years like 2000 and 1989. January has been almost perpetually warm here for decades now and you have to go back to 1980 to find a historically impressive one for us.

Not disputing this at all. I'm just looking at the frequencies of warm/cold winters overall, in recent decades. There's roughly an even balance, I think.

 

In my opinion, the month to month peculiarities belong in a different category. Whether they're just an oddity or something more systematic, I don't think we can know just yet. It sure feels like something systematic to me, but I have no science to back that up.

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Not disputing this at all. I'm just looking at the frequencies of warm/cold winters overall, in recent decades. There's roughly an even balance, I think.

 

In my opinion, the month to month peculiarities belong in a different category. Whether they're just an oddity or something more systematic, I don't think we can know just yet. It sure feels like something systematic to me, but I have no science to back that up.

 

I agree that i's not as imbalanced as it may initially seem, but then you have recent years like 2002-03 and 2014-15 with the blowtorch West/cold East combo and you really don't have anything comparable on the opposite side of the spectrum in recent years, which likely accentuates the idea that we're more due. All of your warmer winters have been mild out here as well. Gone are the 1936-37 or 1948-49 type winters where dramatic, large-scale mid latitude blocking occurred and heavily favored our region while the East torched.

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I agree that i's not as imbalanced as it may initially seem, but then you have recent years like 2002-03 and 2014-15 with the blowtorch West/cold East combo and you really don't have anything comparable on the opposite side of the spectrum in recent years, which likely accentuates the idea that we're more due. All of your warmer winters have been mild out here as well.

Looks to me like 2007/08 fit that general bill (cold west/warm east), and to some extent, 2008/09 and 2011/12 as well. Can think of several 1980s/1990s years like that, too.

 

Gone are the 1936-37 or 1948-49 type winters where dramatic, large-scale mid latitude blocking occurred and heavily favored our region while the East torched.

Honestly, I think this type of pattern is more difficult to achieve, let alone maintain for an extended period of time, simply given large scale topography and streamflow. I don't think you can expect something like this to occur frequently..it requires a slew of self reinforcing oddities.

 

Certainly, the poleward migration of the Hadley Cells since the late 1970s isn't helping for a number of reasons, but I'm not sure this pattern is as common as you're thinking, in the long run. Certainly, it's not nearly as common as blocky patterns that favor the Central/Eastern US.

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Looks to me like 2007/08 fit that general bill (cold west/warm east), and to some extent, 2008/09 and 2011/12 as well. Can think of several 1980s/1990s years like that, too.

 

 

Honestly, this type of pattern is more difficult to achieve, let alone maintain for an extended period of time, simply given large scale topography and streamflow. I don't think you can expect something like this to occur frequently..it requires a slew of self reinforcing oddities.

 

Certainly, the poleward migration of the Hadley Cells isn't helping for a number of reasons, but I'm not sure this pattern is as common as you're thinking, in the long run. Certainly, it's not nearly as common as blocky patterns that favor the Central/Eastern US.

 

2011-12 was warm overall for the West. 2007-08 was cool in the SW but had near average temperatures for the NW, definitely not a genuine cold one by any stretch for us here. I would say that the closest recent example was 2008-09, which had a solidly cold December across the entire West while the East torched. But the opposite occurred the following month, which negated most of the overall disparities that winter.

 

Topographical differences do explain a lot of the longitudinal bias in airmass trajectory but that certainly hasn't stopped a cold West/warm East setup from occurring many times in the past with help from large-scale blocks. Most  examples were before the 1976 PDO flip. The dearth of examples since then is far more noticeable. December 2008, January 1993, December 1990, and November 1985 would probably be the best examples since then. 

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