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snow_wizard

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2011-12 was warm overall for the West. 2007-08 was cool in the SW but had near average temperatures for the NW, definitely not a genuine cold one by any stretch for us here. I would say that the closest recent example was 2008-09, which had a solidly cold December across the entire West while the East torched. But the opposite occurred the following month, which negated most of the overall disparities that winter.

 

Topographical differences do explain a lot of the longitudinal bias in airmass trajectory but that certainly hasn't stopped a cold West/warm East setup from occurring many times in the past with help from large-scale blocks. Most examples were before the 1976 PDO flip. The dearth of examples since then is far more noticeable. December 2008, January 1993, December 1990, and November 1985 would probably be the best examples since then.

I don't think I can refute this. I could point to a limited timeframe of observation, but that'd be handwaving.

 

I highly recommend giving this paper a read. I strongly believe this explains most of your woes in recent decades:

 

http://www.clim-past.net/8/1169/2012/cp-8-1169-2012.pdf

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Here's the authors' conclusion, for those not wanting to read through it:

 

We conclude that the 20CR2 does indicate a slight strengthening and widening of the Hadley Circulation for the past three decades, corroborated by the results of recent analyses. However, over longer periods (1871–2008), the Hadley Circulation has become stronger and narrower. Moreover, we speculate that the width of the Hadley Circulation might have not finished a full life-cycle since the 1870s, which indicates the observed expansion in recent decades might be a reflection of a long-period oscillation. The position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is effectively a tracer of the horizontal scale of the Hadley cell (Hu et al., 2007).

 

Growing paleoclimatic proxy evidence indicates centennial-scale oscillatory behavior of the position of the ITCZ for the past several millennia, i.e. the planktic foraminifera Globigerinoides sacculifer in Gulf of Mexico sediments show the distinct century-scale cyclicity of ITCZ (Poore et al., 2004). Although the identified secular variability of the width of the Hadley Circulation is not inconsistent with the paleoproxy evidence, the interpretation of such variability must be treated with caution because the science is not yet at a stage where sound judgments on this matter can be offered. The long-term changes of the Hadley Circulation might be resolved by a network of proxy observations that describe tropical-subtropical divergence gradients and variations.

 

The strength and width of the Hadley Circulation during the late 19th to early 20th century experienced substantial changes that exceed the changes associated with global warming in recent decades. A simple relationship between the strength and width of the Hadley Circulation and surface temperature is not supported.

 

These findings are intriguing and raise the question of whether the recent changes in the Hadley Circulation are primarily due to greenhouse warming or long-term change of the Hadley Circulation (e.g. variability of the Hadley Circulation at centennial timescales). Attributions of those changes require a deeper understanding of how the strength and width of the Hadley Circulation is controlled under various dynamical regimes, even in the present climate state.

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2011-12 was warm overall for the West. 2007-08 was cool in the SW but had near average temperatures for the NW, definitely not a genuine cold one by any stretch for us here. I would say that the closest recent example was 2008-09, which had a solidly cold December across the entire West while the East torched. But the opposite occurred the following month, which negated most of the overall disparities that winter.

 

Topographical differences do explain a lot of the longitudinal bias in airmass trajectory but that certainly hasn't stopped a cold West/warm East setup from occurring many times in the past with help from large-scale blocks. Most  examples were before the 1976 PDO flip. The dearth of examples since then is far more noticeable. December 2008, January 1993, December 1990, and November 1985 would probably be the best examples since then. 

I would throw in the winter of 1978-79. It is another great example.

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That recent spike in the ENSO SST's sure was strange.  It has already fallen back about 0.7 since then.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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True, but I doubt a few degrees of warming can explain these variances. Our seasons are being pushed back...our autumn months are now October-December, our winter months are January-April, then we get a few weeks in May and/or early June to enjoy Spring before the blast furnace takes over until late September.

 

It snowed in May this year, and it was 95 degrees here until a week ago. Just stupid. I want normal seasons back.

 

I want this horrible drought in CA to come to an end and to see some wetter winters for the entire state!

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I want this horrible drought in CA to come to an end and to see some wetter winters for the entire state!

 

I really think this will be your winter.  Very good chance the high pressure will be shifted north this winter so you could get a lot of undercutting systems.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Crisis averted. Nino3.4 is back down near -0.4C.

 

A 0.8 drop in less than a week.  It was just a small chunk of warm water that worked its way through.  That probably did ruin the chances of the monthly mean ending up -0.5 or below though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Still looks warm in the eastern sections of the ENSO region while the cooler water keeps getting pushed farther west.

 

I am guessing the cooling in the 3.4 region was temporary... warmer water  in the eastern areas is still pushing westward.   

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

 

 

The loop is more informative.   

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Still looks warm in the eastern sections of the ENSO region while the cooler water keeps getting pushed farther west.

 

I am guessing the cooling in the 3.4 region was temporary... warmer water in the eastern areas is still pushing westward.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

 

 

The loop is more informative.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

Nino 1+2 have largely been in the 0 to +0.5 range the last three months. Not much has changed there. I would guess that recent warm spike in 3.4 will be an outlier for awhile. Pretty much the entire basin has cooled in the last 7 days.

image.png

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Nino 1+2 have largely been in the 0 to +0.5 range the last three months. Not much has changed there. I would guess that recent warm spike in 3.4 will be an outlier for awhile. Pretty much the entire basin has cooled in the last 7 days.

attachicon.gifimage.png

 

 

Different look on this map showing 7 day change.   Some spots of cooling and some warming.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Current SOI numbers are through the roof and the guidance suggests strong trade winds will continue for at least another week.  Looks like the Nina may really be getting its act together now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Current SOI numbers are through the roof and the guidance suggests strong trade winds will continue for at least another week.  Looks like the Nina may really be getting its act together now.

Nino 4 is at the lowest it has been since the Nino died.  3.4 is back below -0.6.

 

 

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_1ec81vVHfA/TnJpImPspXI/AAAAAAAADIY/pj9-ZzU4dZc/s1600/Nino2.jpg

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Nino 4 is at the lowest it has been since the Nino died.  3.4 is back below -0.6.

 

 

 

 

Interesting graphic.  I wish the years used were given.  I had no idea west based was so much better for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wow!  I was sure right about it crashing after the spike.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Still looks warm in the eastern sections of the ENSO region while the cooler water keeps getting pushed farther west.

 

I am guessing the cooling in the 3.4 region was temporary... warmer water  in the eastern areas is still pushing westward.   

 

 

The loop is more informative.   

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

 

Pretty bad analysis right here.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Interesting graphic.  I wish the years used were given.  I had no idea west based was so much better for us.

 

 

It makes sense... everything is shifted westward.   

 

This is the most hopeful graphic I have seen for this coming winter actually... since we clearly have a west-based Nina now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If there's one "worry" I have, it's that the Niña cell might be biased too far west. A low frequency subsidence regime has dominated the IO/Maritime domain since July, which is very unusual for a Niña. So, when these intraseasonal waves develop, the forcing resembles something like a very east-based Niño.

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If there's one "worry" I have, it's that the Niña cell might be biased too far west. Subsidence has dominated the IO/Maritime domain since July, which is very unusual for a Niña. So, when these intraseasonal waves develop, the forcing resembles something like a very east-based Niño.

 

 

I was also thinking that its really far west and seems to be moving even more in that direction.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was also thinking that its really far west and seems to be moving even more in that direction.

Yeah, it's raised my concern level slightly, though not necessarily negative concern. We have never observed a winter with a tropical background state resembling the one that's dominated since July. In fact, it only describes about 10% of all *intraseasonal* states since adequate records began in the 1970s. So, if it holds into winter, it'll be something new.

 

However, a strong intraseasonal wave could easily change this around, given the unstable nature of this background state, at least as far as I can tell.

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If there's one "worry" I have, it's that the Niña cell might be biased too far west. Subsidence has dominated the IO/Maritime domain since July, which is very unusual for a Niña. So, when these intraseasonal waves develop, the forcing resembles something like a very east-based Niño.

 

Is there any precedent for this being an issue?

A forum for the end of the world.

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Is there any precedent for this being an issue?

Unfortunately, since adequate observations began, there's no precedence for a winter background state featuring subsidence over both the IO/MT and WPAC, and if there was, I'd expect to find it in a strong east based Niño.

 

So, just have to lol.

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Can't really call this a Niño cell, but it's certainly weird looking.

 

All coherent Niña cells since the 1970s:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EF509581-C0F5-47F2-95EC-399BE4588F23_zpsvljdyurg.png

 

Most clear/coherent Niño cells since the 1970s:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1CDBE7A7-76BB-44AA-A3E2-A0B685A55B73_zpsmyunvs6k.png

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Now the GEFS forecast..lol. There's some resemblance to the climatological Niña forcing around 120E, but the WHEM forcing is dominating, similar to that of a Niño, except very east-biased.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B62E95F4-A302-41E4-AC15-DAB2C71FE651_zpsqgsrwyco.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2B4D56DA-1372-4F1C-82E7-5051E52FCEA6_zpsoxwrkpm6.png

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Same thing in hovmoller format. The convection around 120E is classic Niña, as is the dateline subsidence, however, the additional convection along/east of 120W is more typical of a Niño.

 

There was a notable mid-September shift along/east of 60E, as well.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4BA35DB8-218A-4BB4-9E85-C08A222D1516_zpsry1fdf3c.gif

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The commentary on here is just stupid.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Thanks for your contributions!

 

Just absolutely pathetic analysis. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Attempt at sarcastic humor? I honestly can't tell.

 

I'm a bit puzzled also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No seriously reading this thread is like reading a trainwreck. Some very positive trends on the CFS as a NINA is concerned. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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No seriously reading this thread is like reading a trainwreck. Some very positive trends on the CFS as a NINA is concerned.

I think the CFS is more of a trainwreck than this forum could ever hope to be.

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No seriously reading this thread is like reading a trainwreck. Some very positive trends on the CFS as a NINA is concerned. 

 

I've seen a lot of posts on here saying a Nina is a likely outcome.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm a bit puzzled also.

He's a rabid CFS hugger. Apparently our analysis is "terrible" because the CFS shows Niño3.4 cooling by 0.17C over the next 8 weeks? I don't get it.

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