ENSO Discussion

[snow_wizard]

I don't care if it's November, December, January, or February...just give me something epic!!

 

People are totally missing the point I'm trying to make.  I give up.

[TT-SEA]

People are totally missing the point I'm trying to make.  I give up.

 

 

If we all root for it then it will happen?  

 

If we can make a difference by cheering for it then count me in.   

[Phil]

It has worked out so well for us the past 30 years with no noteworthy Januaries in that time. People need to do their homework of what January used to do here.

Did you see the statistics I posted earlier? Hands down, Niña years that were +PNA in October and flipped -PNA during November lead to better winters than those that were +PNA in both October and November. In fact, years featuring back to back +PNAs in October and November have never produced significant Arctic blasts in January, at any point within our period of record keeping.

 

I don't understand why you're denying something so incredibly straightforward.

[Deweydog]

People are totally missing the point I'm trying to make. I give up.

I think it's just a weak point. If something awesome happens in November, why stress the possibility that something awesome may not happen in January?

 

A bird in the hand...

[ShawniganLake]

People are totally missing the point I'm trying to make. I give up.

Maybe but it's easier on peoples emotions if we spread things out a bit. If we want torching clear thru to the end of December in the hopes that January produces something big, then we are really putting everything in a January basket. A basket that has been mostly empty for 35 years. Seems like it might be best to wait till we see a noticeable shift towards January improvements before we start lining things up for an epic one. That's just my take on things. December has become the new January for some reason other than just dumb luck.

[Phil]

Maybe but it's easier on peoples emotions if we spread things out a bit. If we want torching clear thru to the end of December in the hopes that January produces something big, then we are really putting everything in a January basket. A basket that has been mostly empty for 35 years. Seems like it might be best to wait till we see a noticeable shift towards January improvements before we start lining things up for an epic one. That's just my take on things. December has become the new January for some reason other than just dumb luck.

Agree 100% with this.

[westcoastexpat]

People are totally missing the point I'm trying to make.  I give up.

 

The point you are making is that, based on history, odds improve for a cold period in January if temperatures are mild prior. And since it's January, the heart of the cold season, the cold period will be more pronounced.

 

But you're making the assumption that people want cold. I'd say by far the majority on this forum want snow and maybe a little cold, but most do not want just straight dry cold for weeks on end without snow.

 

If one wants to be in the tundra for weeks, then yes, a mild fall may very well lead to a frigid January. But this is not the outcome most of this forum (i.e. snow lovers) should hope for.

 

To get snow, you don't want an arctic deep freeze. You get a shot with the arctic front, then you have a long period of just cold and no snow, followed by an overrunning event. But snow lovers want a moist jet stream blasting just to our south, with cold air being pulled in. This can happen in any month and it takes some luck for all the pieces to align. But you're telling people that they should be happy if they see no snow until January, because it increases their chance at seeing a little snow in January and lots of dry cold days. Well, that kind of sucks for a snow lover... doesn't it? A snow lover wants repeated snow as often as possible!

[Bryant]

We don't control it... take what nature gives you right?

That's not the point he is making.

[Phil]

The point you are making is that, based on history, odds improve for a cold period in January if temperatures are mild prior. And since it's January, the heart of the cold season, the cold period will be more pronounced.

 

But you're making the assumption that people want cold. I'd say by far the majority on this forum want snow and maybe a little cold, but most do not want just straight dry cold for weeks on end without snow.

 

If one wants to be in the tundra for weeks, then yes, a mild fall may very well lead to a frigid January. But this is not the outcome most of this forum (i.e. snow lovers) should hope for.

 

To get snow, you don't want an arctic deep freeze. You get a shot with the arctic front, then you have a long period of just cold and no snow, followed by an overrunning event. But snow lovers want a moist jet stream blasting just to our south, with cold air being pulled in. This can happen in any month and it takes some luck for all the pieces to align. But you're telling people that they should be happy if they see no snow until January, because it increases their chance at seeing a little snow in January and lots of dry cold days. Well, that kind of sucks for a snow lover... doesn't it? A snow lover wants repeated snow as often as possible!

Are you arguing that Arctic air and snowfall are mutually exclusive in the lowland PNW? We're not talking about the Midwest here.

 

These patterns are fluid and ever changing. It doesn't have to snow during the deepest, driest cold, and all snowstorms are technically "overrunning" events of various physical natures. Generally speaking, colder antecedent airmasses offer higher snowfall potential than the borderline setups you're referring to.

[westcoastexpat]

 

Are you arguing that Arctic air and snowfall are mutually exclusive in the lowland PNW? We're not talking about the Midwest here.

 

These patterns are fluid and ever changing. It doesn't have to snow during the deepest, driest cold, and all snowstorms are technically "overrunning" events of various physical natures.

 

In response to the bold: Nope.

 

Long story short: snow lovers shouldn't hope for no snow in Nov/Dec just for one month with snow potential (Jan). They should hope for snow in any month because any month can deliver the goods, and if it happens in Nov or Dec, it may happen again in Jan or even Feb.

[TT-SEA]

That's not the point he is making.

 

 

Who cares Bryant?   Cheering for weather does not change it.  

[Deweydog]

That's not the point he is making.

Good lord.

 

Pick your spots.

[westcoastexpat]

That's not the point he is making.

 

Jim is able to reply himself. 

[Phil]

In response to the bold: Nope.

 

Long story short: snow lovers shouldn't hope for no snow in Nov/Dec just for one month with snow potential (Jan). They should hope for snow in any month because any month can deliver the goods, and if it happens in Nov or Dec, it may happen again in Jan or even Feb.

Okay, I agree with this.

[Bryant]

Jim is able to reply himself.

We are all capable of doing so

[wx_statman]

1996-97 was the worst tablescrap winter ever for the Portland area. It felt like we were Michael Moore's malnourished dog.

 

In addition to the November, December, and late January airmasses largely running out of steam south of Snohomish County, you also had the rather top tier mid January airmass in the SW and Rockies which just gave us a glancing blow. And another big near-miss to our east with the historic cold shot in early April, just for good measure.

 

I remember all of those events really well. The rest of the year was a slap in the face too with a spread of 94/26. Literally no temperature extremes worth noting for the entire year. 

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a period of basin wide cooling in the Nino regions over the past couple of days.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a period of basin wide cooling in the Nino regions over the past couple of days.

 

Looks like we will get our second tri monthly of -0.5 or lower for Nino 3.4.  So much for the Nina naysayers.

[Phil]

Another sub -20 SOI day today. The 30 day average will go negative tomorrow, probably finishing around -5 for the month of October, perhaps lower.

 

Sorry excuse for a niña cell. Plus it'll only get weaker over the next two weeks, given counteractive extratropical forcing out of Eurasia.

[snow_wizard]

Another sub -20 SOI day today. The 30 day average will go negative tomorrow, probably finishing around -5 for the month of October, perhaps lower.

 

Sorry excuse for a niña cell. Plus it'll only get weaker over the next two weeks, given counteractive extratropical forcing out of Eurasia.

 

Sounds like your back peddling on your Nina prediction.  ENSO SST's are actually dropping lately.

 

I think you're being a bit negative here.  We have another decent trade wind burst coming up and significant WWB's have been non existent.

[Phil]

Sounds like your back peddling on your Nina prediction. ENSO SST's are actually dropping lately.

 

I think you're being a bit negative here. We have another decent trade wind burst coming up and significant WWB's have been non existent.

I'm not backpedalling, just stating the reality of things as I see them. The Niña cell is weak, longitudinally compact, and very unstable, and through the next two weeks this will only become more obvious. Whether you look at the AAM integral, SOI/OLR, or velocity potential et al, it's fairly straightforward IMO.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not backpedalling, just stating the reality of things as I see them. The Niña cell is weak, longitudinally compact, and very unstable, and through the next two weeks this will only become more obvious. Whether you look at the AAM integral, SOI/OLR, or velocity potential et al, it's fairly straightforward IMO.

 

Be that as it may the Nina is doing pretty well right now.  Not sure how a coming trade wind burst is getting worse.

[TT-SEA]

Be that as it may the Nina is doing pretty well right now.  Not sure how a coming trade wind burst is getting worse.

 

 

You have said many times during Ninos that the atmosphere was behaving like a Nina and SSTs don't matter.    Can't the reverse be true then as well?

[Phil]

Be that as it may the Nina is doing pretty well right now. Not sure how a coming trade wind burst is getting worse.

I don't even see a trade wind burst on that graphic. I see a very compact Niña cell, reflected via stronger easterlies biased west of the dateline (overall), and neutral anomalies east of the dateline, in the central/eastern Pacific (overall).

[Phil]

Daily SOI today was a whopping -35.46. That's a stronger negative than most days during last year's super niño. The running 30 day average is now -1.34, and that will likely fall further as the Walker Cell continues to weaken overall through early November.

 

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

[Brennan]

Daily SOI today was a whopping -35.46. That's a stronger negative than most days during last year's super niño. The running 30 day average is now -1.34, and that will likely fall further as the Walker Cell continues to weaken overall through early November.

 

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

That's pretty incredible. Atmospheric and Oceanic chaos. I love weather.

[snow_wizard]

Daily SOI today was a whopping -35.46. That's a stronger negative than most days during last year's super niño. The running 30 day average is now -1.34, and that will likely fall further as the Walker Cell continues to weaken overall through early November.

 

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

 And yet no WWB.  Really weird!

[Phil]

Another massive -SOI day, -32.88. That's super niño territory.

 

You just don't see behaviors like this in La Niña. As Jim said, weird year.

[snow_wizard]

Another massive -SOI day, -32.88. That's super niño territory.

 

You just don't see behaviors like this in La Niña. As Jim said, weird year.

 

I'm betting we will see something equally impressive on the flip side of that later on.  I wonder if the strange behavior this year is a sign we have entered a regime change.  It's usually hard to identify that until you look back on it a ways down the road.

[snow_wizard]

Surface pressure forecasts over the tropical Pacific indicate the SOI will come up very soon, but still not what you would normally see during a Nina.  The SOI* (pressure difference between the West Coast of South America and Darwin) is much more Ninaish.

[Phil]

I'm betting we will see something equally impressive on the flip side of that later on. I wonder if the strange behavior this year is a sign we have entered a regime change. It's usually hard to identify that until you look back on it a ways down the road.

Let's be honest with ourselves..this niña cell is pathetic. It's a weak, impotent piece of crap. As in, it barely even registers on most low pass filters, and has been weakening since September.

 

As of now, I don't see any signs of a significant +SOI. The Walker Cell has been weakening for the last week, and this should continue for at least another week.

[snow_wizard]

Let's be honest with ourselves..this niña cell is pathetic. It's a weak, impotent piece of crap. As in, it barely even registers on most low pass filters, and has been weakening since September.

 

As of now, I don't see any signs of a significant +SOI. The Walker Cell has been weakening for the last week, and this should continue for at least another week.

 

We'll see.  The oceanic component of the Nina is pretty healthy right now.  Good subsurface cold pool and Nino 3.4 is back to -1.0.  It's easy to envision the atmosphere flipping to Ninaish again.  That could be the key to our winter.  A strong flip to Ninaish would blow Bastardi's theories right out the window.  Not sure why he thinks the IO is unfavorable for the Nina.

[Phil]

We'll see. The oceanic component of the Nina is pretty healthy right now. Good subsurface cold pool and Nino 3.4 is back to -1.0. It's easy to envision the atmosphere flipping to Ninaish again. That could be the key to our winter. A strong flip to Ninaish would blow Bastardi's theories right out the window. Not sure why he thinks the IO is unfavorable for the Nina.

Thing is, it's not just the strip of ENSO SSTs that matter. It's the global tropical SST distribution that can really tilt things. The cooler IO overall, juxtaposed with the warm off-equator Pacific SSTAs and an Atlantic Hadley Cell in a -AMO state, is a natural destructive interference state in relation to the Niña cell.

 

While a -IOD itself is a boost to the Niña state, a cooler IO in its entirety isn't a good thing, as it leads to a longitudinal contraction of the Walker Cell, which under the aforementioned destructive interference regime, makes it highly vulnerable to extratropical perturbation, which in turn can ignite instabilities in the tropical macroscale state (MJO), possibly leading to the destruction of the Niña cell altogether.

[snow_wizard]

The models are finally in a greement on an MJO emerging soon.  It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

[snow_wizard]

Thing is, it's not just the strip of ENSO SSTs that matter. It's the global tropical SST distribution that can really tilt things. The cooler IO overall, juxtaposed with the warm off-equator Pacific SSTAs and an Atlantic Hadley Cell in a -AMO state, is a natural destructive interference state in relation to the Niña cell.

 

While a -IOD itself is a boost to the Niña state, a cooler IO in its entirety isn't a good thing, as it leads to a longitudinal contraction of the Walker Cell, which under the aforementioned destructive interference regime, makes it highly vulnerable to extratropical perturbation, which in turn can ignite instabilities in the tropical macroscale state (MJO), possibly leading to the destruction of the Niña cell altogether.

 

So many variables.  Really hard to know what the ultimate outcome will be, but all I can is Nina climo suggests the cold ENSO SST's shouldn't collapse for a while yet.  I'm betting on a resurgence.

[Bryant]

The models are finally in a greement on an MJO emerging soon. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

I was thinking about a possible ignition of the MJO yesterday. Typically during a strat warming event, the upper levels over the tropical equator cool, causing a more convective regime to unfold and better support the MJO

[snow_wizard]

I was thinking about a possible ignition of the MJO yesterday. Typically during a strat warming event, the upper levels over the tropical equator cool, causing a more convective regime to unfold and better support the MJO

 

Interesting...I never knew that. Right now it appears the wave will begin in 7 or 8.  Perhaps into the right position for a western trough come December?

[ShawniganLake]

Nino 3.4 has broke that invisible barrier that had seemed to be present at the -1.0C mark.

[snow_wizard]

Yes indeed!  -1.043 on the last update.  Not good news for Bastardi.  

[Phil]

Yes indeed! -1.043 on the last update. Not good news for Bastardi.

Apparently the atmospheric circulation doesn't care.