ENSO Discussion

[Jesse]

I don't know about you but I see fairly steady warming on both of those maps.

[Phil]

I don't know about you but I see fairly steady warming on both of those maps.

I guess it's all about perspective. I see a clear step change in the late 1990s, associated with the significant shift in the Hadley Cell and tropical macroscale convective integral that was occurring during that timeframe.

[Jesse]

I guess it's all about perspective. I see a clear step change in the late 1990s, associated with the significant shift in the Hadley Cell and tropical macroscale convective integral that was occurring during that timeframe.

Average slope over a set interval is not a matter of perspective.

[Phil]

Average slope over a set interval is not a matter of perspective.

That doesn't make it a linear trend, though. I'd recommend a modestly smoothed rate-of-change function, through which you'll obtain a value of near-zero over the last decade+.

 

Nothing is linear w/ regards to climate change, so probably best not to express said non-linear behaviors in linear fashion.

[wx_statman]

The problem with this idea is, even if the atmosphere were still warming at a rapid pace, the potential mechanisms and/or alterations to the primary conduits allowing said "weirdness" show essentially zero responsive relation to the observed climate change. If anything, these behaviors appear to drive climate changes when analyzed through a rate-of-change function, and their response functions (both perturbed and unperturbed) solely align with external forcing(s), on a frequency governed by internally-rooted resonance(s).

 

This isn't just my opinion. There are numerous peer reviewed studies highlight this phenomenon,

 

Then again, nothing in nature is a closed system. I'm sure the extra greenhouse gases, and the associated planetary-scale warming, has some sort of impact here. Whether its obvious or not, and whether we understand it or not. 

 

We know for a fact that global warming has helped strengthen the Hadley Cells, for example. I don't think we can claim to understand all the cascading effects just from that one example, let alone any other direct effects on the Earth System from AGW. 

[Phil]

Then again, nothing in nature is a closed system. I'm sure the extra greenhouse gases, and the associated planetary-scale warming, has some sort of impact here. Whether its obvious or not, and whether we understand it or not.

I definitely agree re: the entropic process and GHGes. There definitely could be effects, I'm not denying that. There are a number of very debatable relations, actually, but unfortunately there's no way to really prove or disprove them, and they're much more subtle than the more coherent responses to solar/external stimuli (given the more regular, cyclical solar cycle harmonics, hence a repeatable "experiment", so to speak).

 

We know for a fact that global warming has helped strengthen the Hadley Cells, for example. I don't think we can claim to understand all the cascading effects just from that one example, let alone any other direct effects on the Earth System from AGW.

The modeling indeed suggests a modest expansion of the Hadley Cells with global warming, though strength/intensity is more debatable (some modeling suggests broadening/weakening, others suggest broadening/strengthening).

 

Problem is, the observed Hadley Cell expansion has been over 25 times larger than any climate model forecast to date, and cannot be explained simply via climate warming under the GHG radiative profile. Not to mention the extreme swings in the Hadley Cell latitude/intensity ratios over the last several thousand years which require a natural explanation, obviously.

 

Furthermore, the observed expansion and strengthening of the Hadley Cells is not only largely responsible for the enhanced warming with latitude, but in fact could theoretically arise out of such a scenario as a response function. So, you have a chicken/egg thing going on here. There are a number of potential natural explanations for the initiation of the recent Hadley Cell changes, but they're all very theoretical and/or pure guesswork in some cases. There's a lot we don't understand.

[Bryant]

I was thinking about a possible ignition of the MJO yesterday. Typically during a strat warming event, the upper levels over the tropical equator cool, causing a more convective regime to unfold and better support the MJO

Looks like the tropical equator will in fact cool due to the strat warming, now we wait and see if it works in our benefit or not

[snow_wizard]

Rather interesting to note that during the big negative SOI spike the OLR anoms 5N to 5S / 160W to 160E showed no change whatsoever.  Collectively the region has maintained positive OLR (ninaish).  Also interesting to see the predicted trade wind burst has become much more extensive on the latest update.

[westiztehbest]

PDO down to 0.45 for September (coolest since February 2014).

 

ENSO 3.4 down to -1.12.

 

Blob is dead.

 

 

Another round of Easterlies are about to kick in.

[snow_wizard]

Actually -1.123 now.  As far as I can tell the Nina is fine.  Subsurface is still cold, OLR is fine, SSTs are fine, TW burst about to commence.

[Front Ranger]

Actually -1.123 now.  As far as I can tell the Nina is fine.  Subsurface is still cold, OLR is fine, SSTs are fine, TW burst about to commence.

 

Yeah, -SOI or not, the Nina looks plenty healthy now. Very odd SSTA pattern for the North Pacific.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, -SOI or not, the Nina looks plenty healthy now. Very odd SSTA pattern for the North Pacific.

 

The NPAC is in transition.  The warm pool is regrouping further west while the warmth that was nearer the coast is dissipating. 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, -SOI or not, the Nina looks plenty healthy now. Very odd SSTA pattern for the North Pacific.

 

 

I don't think the Nina looks particularly robust... and most of the Pacific Ocean is above normal.    

 

Here is 11/1/2010 for comparison:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.11.1.2010.gif

 

 

And today... using the same map to eliminate differences between sites.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.10.31.2016.gif

[Front Ranger]

I'm talking about the Nina signature at the equator, not the whole ocean. 2010 was undoubtedly much stronger at this point and had been for months.

[Phil]

Thing is, all the off-equator warmth sandwiching that cool stripe is a factor in the weakening of the Walker Cell. We still have an extremely paltry background state ongoing, and I'm not sure that's going to change.

[snow_wizard]

Thing is, all the off-equator warmth sandwiching that cool stripe is a factor in the weakening of the Walker Cell. We still have an extremely paltry background state ongoing, and I'm not sure that's going to change.

 

The stripe of cold water is quite a bit wider than it was several weeks ago.  It was extremely narrow to begin with.  All I can say is every super Nino on record was followed by a major Nina either the year after the Nino or the year after that.

 

It's also quite telling the OLR anoms in the crucial area are Ninaish right now.

[Phil]

The stripe of cold water is quite a bit wider than it was several weeks ago. It was extremely narrow to begin with. All I can say is every super Nino on record was followed by a major Nina either the year after the Nino or the year after that.

 

It's also quite telling the OLR anoms in the crucial area are Ninaish right now.

Huh? The super-niños of 1957/58, 1965/66, and 1982/83 weren't followed by major niñas, at any time. In fact, no niña followed 1957/58 or 1965/66.

[snow_wizard]

Huh? The super-niños of 1957/58, 1965/66, and 1982/83 weren't followed by major niñas, at any time. In fact, no niña followed 1957/58 or 1965/66.

 

1984 was a pretty decent Nina.  I mean the biggest Ninos.  I would consider those 1939-41, 1982-83, 1997-98.

 

You're really stating to mess yourself up in regard to predictions you have made in the recent past about major La Nina activity for the remainder of this decade.  I think you should stick to your guns a bit more.

[Phil]

1984 was a pretty decent Nina. I mean the biggest Ninos. I would consider those 1939-41, 1982-83, 1997-98.

 

You're really stating to mess yourself up in regard to predictions you have made in the recent past about major La Nina activity for the remainder of this decade. I think you should stick to your guns a bit more.

I made a prediction for a slew of major Niñas in the early 2020s, which I'm sticking to.

 

However, I think the 2016-2018 era will be a weaker -ENSO stretch overall, similar to the 1983-1985 or 1966-1968 periods.

[TT-SEA]

I made a prediction for a slew of major Niñas in the early 2020s, which I'm sticking to.

 

However, I think the 2016-2018 era will be a weaker -ENSO stretch overall, similar to the 1983-1985 or 1966-1968 periods.

 

Always stick to your guns and never adjust.   Nature never surprises or changes course and good forecasters do not adjust.

 

And if you stick to your guns then it will happen.   

[Bryant]

Thought I would throw this together for anyone who may benefit from it. SOI has been a popular discussion lately, due to the uncharacteristically low values recently, typical during an El Nino. Not really concerned personally however, as it seems as though it was just a blip on the radar, and the SOI is already once again rising to positive values. For those that don't know, the SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Darwin and Tahiti. The following explains it well.

 

"The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative (positive) SOI values coincide with abnormally warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodes."

 

Simply put, low level westerly winds over the ENSO regions promote warming (El Nino) which will lower the SOI values. On the flip side, low level easterly winds in the ENSO regions promote cooling (La Nina), which will raise the SOI values. The following image depicts the correlation between low level winds, and the subsequent SOI values. During a trade wind burst, with stronger than normal easterlies, the SOI will rise, and vice versa when the winds relax/reverse. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/Dzpf9st.jpg

[Phil]

Always stick to your guns and never adjust. Nature never surprises or changes course and good forecasters do not adjust.

 

And if you stick to your guns then it will happen.

If I root against the Niña, maybe Mother Nature will listen!

[Phil]

Thought I would throw this together for anyone who may benefit from it. SOI has been a popular discussion lately, due to the uncharacteristically low values recently, typical during an El Nino. Not really concerned personally however, as it seems as though it was just a blip on the radar, and the SOI is already once again rising to positive values. For those that don't know, the SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Darwin and Tahiti. The following explains it well.

 

"The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative (positive) SOI values coincide with abnormally warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodes."

 

Simply put, low level westerly winds over the ENSO regions promote warming (El Nino) which will lower the SOI values. On the flip side, low level easterly winds in the ENSO regions promote cooling (La Nina), which will raise the SOI values. The following image depicts the correlation between low level winds, and the subsequent SOI values. During a trade wind burst, with stronger than normal easterlies, the SOI will rise, and vice versa when the winds relax/reverse.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Dzpf9st.jpg

Great post, man. Wanted to up-vote it but apparently I've reached my maximum quota of up-votes for the day.

[snow_wizard]

Thought I would throw this together for anyone who may benefit from it. SOI has been a popular discussion lately, due to the uncharacteristically low values recently, typical during an El Nino. Not really concerned personally however, as it seems as though it was just a blip on the radar, and the SOI is already once again rising to positive values. For those that don't know, the SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Darwin and Tahiti. The following explains it well.

 

"The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative (positive) SOI values coincide with abnormally warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodes."

 

Simply put, low level westerly winds over the ENSO regions promote warming (El Nino) which will lower the SOI values. On the flip side, low level easterly winds in the ENSO regions promote cooling (La Nina), which will raise the SOI values. The following image depicts the correlation between low level winds, and the subsequent SOI values. During a trade wind burst, with stronger than normal easterlies, the SOI will rise, and vice versa when the winds relax/reverse. 

 

 

That graphic really shows how little the recent negative SOI pike effected the trades.  Besides that it barely effected the OLR.  Really odd, but seeing is believing.  I see you didn't use the Aussie SOI values.  Interesting how different the two sets are.

[Bryant]

That graphic really shows how little the recent negative SOI pike effected the trades.  Besides that it barely effected the OLR.  Really odd, but seeing is believing.  I see you didn't use the Aussie SOI values.  Interesting how different the two sets are.

 

Took a look at the Aussie site, but failed to navigate to the daily values. I'm sure the overall positive/negative trend is the same though. In regards to the bolded, I'd argue the SOI is simply a measure of pressure differences / convection in the tropics, rather than a forcing mechanism of any kind. No need to get into the chicken and egg debate though  

[snow_wizard]

Took a look at the Aussie site, but failed to navigate to the daily values. I'm sure the overall positive/negative trend is the same though. In regards to the bolded, I'd argue the SOI is simply a measure of pressure differences / convection in the tropics, rather than a forcing mechanism of any kind. No need to get into the chicken and egg debate though

 

I was simply pointing out that normally a major negative SOI episode would have a big WWB.  Goes to show things are different this time.

[Bryant]

I was simply pointing out that normally a major negative SOI episode would have a big WWB.  Goes to show things are different this time.

 

Ahh, yes I definitely agree. Sorry, misinterpreted your post

[snow_wizard]

No doubt this is a REALLY good thread.  Excellent info and graphics in here!

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, exceptional insight and knowledge in this thread.

 

Also,

Niño 3.4 continues to slowly cool and is now down to -1.143

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

[snow_wizard]

October checked in with -0.77 for Nino 3.4 and the latest ONI number is -0.7.  They updated the previous months value to -0.6.  Already two tri monthly anoms below -0.5.

[Gradient Keeper]

Brrrr! Starting to look a bit more like a Nina and check out the dramatic cooling all across the Pacific north of 35/40 N.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Brrrr! Starting to look a bit more like a Nina and check out the dramatic cooling all across the Pacific north of 35/40 N.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Tim will not be pleased with this map.

[TT-SEA]

Tim will not be pleased with this map.

Why? I love snow and cold. And blocky winters.

 

Posting maps that show SSTA warming does not mean I want a warm winter. I just want to know the facts and not have a discussion here that seems like endless cold propaganda. I think cheerleading for weather is stupid. Totally stupid.

 

Give me facts and assessment of the actual situation from the smart people on here.

[Jesse]

The KKK celebrated the win of Donald Trump.

 

Therefore all people on the right are racists and want a white nation and would be fine killing minorities.

 

Make sure you judge some nut jobs on the left the same way.

 

ALL Democrats hate the military and have lost their mind. ALL OF THEM.

This will no doubt cause Nina 3.4 to PLUNGE!!

[TT-SEA]

This will no doubt cause Nina 3.4 to PLUNGE!!

Stop quoting me so fast.

 

I grabbed wrong thread.

[Deweydog]

This will no doubt cause Nina 3.4 to PLUNGE!!

Our climate quite a bit colder AND snowier when the Klan was most prominent...

[Front Ranger]

Our climate quite a bit colder AND snowier when the Klan was most prominent...

 

Whiter in general.

[Deweydog]

Whiter in general.

Definitely an unfortunate bi-product of the civil rights movement. Diversity and hugs are great but they create a lot of excess warmth.

[HighlandExperience]

[snow_wizard]

Our climate was alot better prior to the arrival of the white man in 1847. Since their arrival glaciers have retreated and our snowfall has been substantially reduced

We don't know much prior to 1847. No doubt 1847 through 1916 was incredibly snowy compared to now.