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snow_wizard

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I don't want to see that 2014-16 pattern either, since that time period was when the worst of the drought in CA occurred. An old school El Nino pattern would have a much higher probability of bringing a wet winter to CA, unless the overall climate patterns have dramatically changed since then due to factors such as low Arctic sea ice extent, etc.

Arctic sea ice doesn't do diddly squat in terms of forcing the boreal winter circulations. That has almost everything to do with the interaction between the large scale tropical convective cells and the stratosphere, as well as solar-geomagnetic forcing on both of those via photochemical and thermokinetic forcings.

 

The Arctic experiences a perpetual radiative deficit, its multidecadal warming has been largely confined to winter, when there is zero albedo effect, because it receives no solar radiation...only warm air advection from the south, which has increased since the late 1970s thanks to the poleward expansion of the Hadley Cells.

 

Meanwhile, summer Arctic melt season temperatures have actually declined since the 1950s above 70N. Arctic sea ice does have some effect on circulation in the warm season, since it alters the radiation fluxes that govern polar O^3 content and themal wind evolution in the absence of an upper level PV, but even those effects are dwarfed by the aforementioned forcings.

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Since 1959, the four coldest Arctic summers above 80N have all occurred in the last 8yrs (2009, 2010, 2013, 2014). The summer of 2013 was the coldest.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

This is when the albedo effect (and "Arctic amplification") is forecasted to be the strongest by climate models. Instead, the exact opposite occurs during this time. Why? The answer is that the enhanced polar warming is being forced externally, by poleward migrating subtropical circulation cells, and that during summer, the powerful cold season mid-latitude cyclones (which are the conduits to this poleward advection of warm air in the absence of solar radiation) do not occur, hence the lack of warming. That along with latent heat absorption via ice melt.

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Looks like a modest MJO-type response to the final stratospheric warming is now underway. Could this be what kickstarts the Niño process?

 

Modest WWB regime has resulted:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

Huge changes in the tropical forcing next week:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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With WHEM MJO ignition, there's gonna be a solid WWB sometime in early May. At least based on this year's apparent periodicity.

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It's probably coming, but keep in mind the NMME tends to have an outrageous warm-bias globally, especially in the tropics.

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Westerlies upcoming:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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Looks like its cooling in the eastern part of the ENSO region and warming in the west.   

 

Here is the 7-day change:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

And the current SSTA map:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like its cooling in the eastern part of the ENSO region and warming in the west.   

 

Here is the 7-day change:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

And the current SSTA map:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Impressive cold pool off the Washington/Oregon coast.

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Impressive cold pool off the Washington/Oregon coast.

 

Yeah... there are only 2 significant cool spots on Earth.   In the GOA and IO.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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According to Matt... the effect of colder than normal water off our coast would only enhance a marine push about 500 feet past the Astoria-Megler bridge.  


 


We need to look up... not down!   ;)


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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According to Matt... the effect of colder than normal water off our coast would only enhance a marine push about 500 feet past the Astoria-Megler bridge.

We need to look up... not down! ;)

Now that offshore SSTs are colder it seems like a good time for you to take on this opinion.

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Now that offshore SSTs are colder it seems like a good time for you to take on this opinion.

 

I don't really agree... never have.   But its hard to argue with Matt in general.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... there are only 2 significant cool spots on Earth. In the GOA and IO.

While I'm not 100% certain, it looks like the CDAS might be running a tad warm globally w/ SSTAs. Maybe some unaccounted-for orbital drift? These radiometers are quite temperamental.

 

Notable that the OSPO/NESDIS & EC data are all running cooler and more in-line w/ the CERES-derived TOA radiative fluxes.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.4.10.2017.gif

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While I'm not 100% certain, it looks like the CDAS might be running a tad warm globally w/ SSTAs. Maybe some unaccounted-for orbital drift? These radiometers are quite temperamental.

 

Notable that the OSPO/STAR & EC data are all running cooler and more in line w/ the CERES-derived TOA radiative fluxes.

 

 

I was continually scolded on here for using that map because it makes it look warm.   

 

Now I being told that the map I was instructed to use makes it look warm and I should use the other map again.    :lol:

 

Go with whatever makes it look colder is the message here!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was continually scolded on here for using that map because it makes it look warm.

 

Now I being told that the map I was instructed to use makes it look warm and I should use the other map again. :lol:

 

Go with whatever makes it look colder is the message here!

Huh? I introduced you to that map, and I use it frequently. It just needs to be pointed out that the CDAS anomaly appears to be a warm outlier (globally) relative to the other operational SSTA datasets. Understood?

 

That doesn't mean it's wrong. But it is an outlier.

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Huh? I introduced you to that map, and I use it frequently. It just needs to be pointed out that the CDAS anomaly appears to be a warm outlier (globally) relative to the other operational SSTA datasets. Understood?

 

That doesn't mean it's wrong. But it is an outlier.

 

I only used this map for years...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.4.10.2017.gif

 

 

 

I was mocked and told that I was misrepresenting the SSTA reality with the above map by several people on here.   I was firmly instructed to never use that map and only use this map:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

The bottom map was supposed to be more realistic as the top map made it look warmer than reality.    

 

Now you are showing the top map as being a better example of reality.

 

I could go back and find the posts.    Understood?  You don't remember what you said now but it stuck in my mind and I never link to the top map now.   It was not just you either.

 

Whatever.    I don't really care.   Just find it sort of funny.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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According to Matt... the effect of colder than normal water off our coast would only enhance a marine push about 500 feet past the Astoria-Megler bridge.

We need to look up... not down! ;)

I'd say at least a good five miles.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Slow down, Tim. Completely out of context, as usual.

 

The CDAS data runs on a higher resolution than NESDIS, which allowed it to more accurately depict *equatorial upwelling* and the instability waves that were present during the development of the Niña last summer. That was my point at the time.

 

Last summer, the CDAS data was also largely *in-line with the other operational datasets* (globally) in terms of the planetary SST anomaly. Starting in the fall, CDAS began to diverge warm from the rest of the operational datasets. As of right now, it is a warm outlier globally. That's my point here.

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You are coming around!

Nah, I've always held to the fact coastal SSTA's are fairly relevant west of the coast range. East of there, not so much. It's good entertainment, though. Blue does look really cold and orange very warm.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Slow down, Tim. Completely out of context, as usual.

 

The CDAS data runs on a higher resolution than NESDIS, which allowed it to more accurately depict *equatorial upwelling* and the instability waves that were present during the development of the Niña last summer. That was my point at the time.

 

Last summer, the CDAS data was also largely *in-line with the other operational datasets* (globally) in terms of the planetary SST anomaly. Starting in the fall, CDAS began to diverge warm from the rest of the operational datasets. As of right now, it is a warm outlier globally. That's my point here.

 

All sounds like trolling to me.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nah, I've always held to the fact coastal SSTA's are fairly relevant west of the coast range. East of there, not so much. It's good entertainment, though. Blue does look really cold and orange very warm.

 

Summer of 2017 might be a good test of the theory!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Think harder.

 

You should be smart enough to grasp this.

 

I smart enough to understand you come up with technical sounding reasons to justify what is in reality just trolling to keep yourself entertained.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Summer of 2017 might be a good test of the theory!

Why? If the 1000-500mb pattern supports it, it will be a relatively cool summer. If it doesn't, it won't. I'd go with the preceding.

 

As far as voodoo causes go for inland areas, I'm much more onboard with soil moisture.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Why? If the 1000-500mb pattern supports it, it will be a relatively cool summer. If it doesn't, it won't. I'd go with the preceding.

 

As far as voodoo causes go for inland areas, I'm much more onboard with soil moisture.

Score!!

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I smart enough to understand you come up with technical sounding reasons to justify what is in reality just trolling to keep yourself entertained.

If you're not smart enough to use proper grammar, then you're certainly not smart enough to judge anything I say in regards to weather or climate.

 

No, I'm not trolling you. This is elementary stuff.

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If you're not smart enough to use proper grammar, then you're certainly not smart enough to judge anything I say in regards to weather or climate.

 

No, I'm not trolling you. This is elementary stuff.

 

Typical trolling from Phil.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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