ENSO Discussion

[Guest happ]

Phil, on 21 Mar 2017 - 11:11 AM, said:

Yes, and there's a reason the EPAC is on fire. It's the same process responsible for the cool/quiet IO.

 

Going to be a very weak IO monsoon this year.

 

IO = Indian monsoon?

[Phil]

IO = Indian monsoon?

Indian Ocean.

[Phil]

The OLWR flux above TOA (radiative loss to space) is still historically high for a Niña/-ENSO, and set a new record during/following the recent super-Niño. The radiative imbalance has been positive for several years now.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A9A90129-A9C9-4432-B978-B1998ECF2F39_zpsuobppzno.png

 

Looked around a bit at the shortwave data. Seems as if an ongoing decrease in global cloud cover could explain some of the OLWR uptick over the last 15 years.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/AACBB95B-5535-422C-9547-0C2B3CCE7822_zpsqufezffm.png

 

For reference, in a GHG/AGW induced warming, you'd anticipate a stable or slightly reduced OLWR flux through time, and the aggregate differential between SW solar input and OLWR output gives you the energy imbalance.

[Phil]

Interesting to see how the IO/Indo warm pool had collapsed this winter. Good chance this region is convectively dead this spring/summer, which would favor convection farther east, over the WPAC/WHEM:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B7926878-0558-4CAC-9328-E5B9EF1E639E_zps9ztyckek.png

 

Look at the warm season convective integral over the previous global cooling period, compared to the recent global warming period..this would be a throwback to a cool-regime circulation:

 

JJA 1950-1976..-WC/+HC convective regime = global cooling:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7254B106-1644-402C-AA4B-CE15D058F558_zps73np26ok.png

 

JJA 1980-2016, +WC/-HC convective regime = global warming:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E96054F6-CDB0-4CA4-87DB-71A641C539C7_zpswtxvmctv.png

[Guest happ]

February Data

 

 

[Phil]

February Data

Just so you know, GISS runs on an ancient 1950-1980 reference period, which is very outdated and encompasses the heart of the previous global cooling period, which peaked in the 1960s and 1970s. So the maps can be misleading.

 

Both the NCDC and HADCRUT4 datasets are somewhat more rational w/ regards to their baselines and data assimilation schemes.

[snow_wizard]

The OLWR flux above TOA (radiative loss to space) is still historically high for a Niña/-ENSO, and set a new record during/following the recent super-Niño. The radiative imbalance has been positive for several years now.

 

 

Looked around a bit at the shortwave data. Seems as if an ongoing decrease in global cloud cover could explain some of the OLWR uptick over the last 15 years.

 

 

For reference, in a GHG/AGW induced warming, you'd anticipate a stable or slightly reduced OLWR flux through time, and the aggregate differential between SW solar input and OLWR output gives you the energy imbalance.

I thought it was theorized the low solar activity would result in more cloud cover.

[Guest happ]

Future-casting

 

[Phil]

I thought it was theorized the low solar activity would result in more cloud cover.

That's the cosmic ray theory, but I've never been very impressed with it, to be honest. I think it's more likely that solar forcing alters upper atmospheric photochemistry and z-component thermal cells hence altering atmospheric circulation, the distribution of cloud cover, convective tendencies, wind patterns, and the resultant exchange of heat between the deeper oceans and atmosphere on a planetary scale.

[Phil]

It's also important to know where the cloud cover decrease is occurring, and at what latitude and altitude.

 

High level/ice crystal clouds radiatively warm the planetary surface on aggregate, while low/mid level clouds and convective clouds radiatively and dynamically cool the planetary surface on aggregate.

 

Also, in the tropics, an increase in full-column cloud cover radiatively cools the system on a full-year basis, while an increase in full-column cloud cover at the poles radiatively warms the system on a full-year basis.

[Phil]

Also, it gets more complicated with regards to changes in circulation and wind speeds over the oceans. One of the significant yet overlooked contributions to the energy budget is the evaporative cooling of the sea surface due to wind.

 

During the oceanic evaporative cooling process, real/sensible heat is converted to latent heat, which is then released again as real/sensible heat in the upper troposphere during the condensation/cloud forming process in convection. So, should surface convection and surface wind speed decrease globally, you'd have less evaporative cooling of the oceans, hence increased ocean heat content, and reduced latent heat release in the upper troposphere, hence, either a stable or colder upper troposphere and stratosphere (depending on the TCR/equilibrative rate) which also would theoretically accelerate the thermodynamic component(s) of photodissociation of O^3 in the stratosphere, further cooling that domain.

 

This would continue until the oceans warm enough to re-equilibrate to the aforementioned reduction in heat removal, and depending on the rate at which this occurs, the upper troposphere either would experience a decline in temperature or a generally stable temperature while the surface and lower troposphere warm to whatever degree necessary to re-establish thermodynamic equilibrium.

[Phil]

Also, it gets more complicated with regards to changes in circulation and wind speeds over the oceans. One of the significant yet overlooked contributions to the energy budget is the evaporative cooling of the sea surface due to wind.

 

During the oceanic evaporative cooling process, real/sensible heat is converted to latent heat, which is then released again as real/sensible heat in the upper troposphere during the condensation/cloud forming process in convection. So, should surface convection and surface wind speed decrease globally, you'd have less evaporative cooling of the oceans, hence increased ocean heat content, and reduced latent heat release in the upper troposphere, hence, either a stable or colder upper troposphere and stratosphere (depending on the TCR/equilibrative rate) which also would theoretically accelerate the thermodynamic component(s) of photodissociation of O^3 in the stratosphere, further cooling that domain.

 

This would continue until the oceans warm enough to re-equilibrate to the aforementioned reduction in heat removal, and depending on the rate at which this occurs, the upper troposphere either would experience a decline in temperature or a generally stable temperature while the surface and lower troposphere warm to whatever degree necessary to re-establish thermodynamic equilibrium.

So, when looking at things via this perspective, it explains why the upper troposphere is cooling slightly, and also it explains why specific humidity is declining above 400mb, yet increasing in the lower troposphere. Both of these observations directly contradict climate model forecasts, which suggests that we're misdiagnosising at least a portion of the observed warming that has occurred in recent decades.

 

Temperatures @ 200mb, required to warm under GHG induced warming scenarios but are actually cooling on all operational datasets:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FA2B5BB8-D569-46C3-B6CA-29FCF996C140_zpstaurignz.gif

 

Humidity by altitude/pressure level, also homogenous on all operational datasets:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F3D8F3DB-5B93-4EA8-A37D-8708685AC21F_zpsyepxrahh.gif

[Guest happ]

Warm Pacific temps off S. America

 

 

[snow_wizard]

It does appear this possible Nino could fail.  The atmosphere has been Ninaish for a quite some time now.  In fact the 30 day SOI is the highest in months.  The subsurface maps show the warm water off the coast of South America is relatively limited and the subsurface picture overall looks more neutral.

[Phil]

A pretty spectacular self-destruction of the NATL warm regime is ongoing right now. Most of the NATL subsurface above 25N is cooling as the NATL Z-cell weakens.

 

North Atlantic subsurface temperatures, 0-700m:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/AB70365C-31AC-4F13-8622-5D8746089BB9_zpsamdpdbxp.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5C34B1EB-61CA-4744-B285-A6E0E287FE69_zpsiyjnjljp.jpg

 

Both its construction and collapse was brought on by the excursion in the Atlantic meridional mode, which accelerated the poleward thermal transport, which weakened the meridional thermal gradient hence weakened U-wind relative to V-wind and slowed the local Z-Cell, which began to self-destruct the very warm regime it created:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0FA51A92-FDBA-4318-8799-B23897E939CB_zpsfo0kj73m.png

 

From a longer term perspective, this is mostly typical late Holocene behavior, and is to be expected near the end-stages of an interglacial as the meridional gradient strengthens and resists the AMM/Hadley Cell there. When including the highest resolution proxies and ARGO era subsurface measurements, the. splicing them into the late-Holocene average, one sac see this is mostly just a continuation of back/forth behavior over the last several millennia:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BA6140E6-C2ED-49BA-9B29-0FD1AE5E5DD0_zpskom6eru0.jpg

[Phil]

Time to start sounding the El Niño alarm bells. Models dramatically weaken the Indo convection and associated Pacific trades during Mid-April, and the 120W convection is clearly coupling w/ the SSTs there.

[TT-SEA]

Time to start sounding the El Niño alarm bells. Models dramatically weaken the Indo convection and associated Pacific trades during Mid-April, and the 120W convection is clearly coupling w/ the SSTs there.

 

I am sure you will attack anything I say... but this does make sense in light of our weather recently.

 

It seems like years that transition to Ninos lean towards cooler, wetter springs around here... most recent examples being 2009 and 2012.   The Nino in 2012 obviously never matured but it was heading that way though summer before fading away.

[Phil]

I am sure you will attack anything I say... but this does make sense in light of our weather recently.

 

It seems like years that transition to Ninos lean towards cooler, wetter springs around here... most recent examples being 2009 and 2012. The Nino in 2012 obviously never matured but it was heading that way though summer before fading away.

Why would I attack you for this?

 

I do think the nature of the lower frequency system state matters as well, though. Years with the strong +IOSD/EPAC warming, like this year, tend to feature more prolific warm season jet extensions relative to years like 2009 and 2014 which were more IPWP based.

[Jesse]

Time to start sounding the El Niño alarm bells. Models dramatically weaken the Indo convection and associated Pacific trades during Mid-April, and the 120W convection is clearly coupling w/ the SSTs there.

Even though I know every Niño is different, I am not happy to hear this.

[James Jones]

I am sure you will attack anything I say... but this does make sense in light of our weather recently.

 

It seems like years that transition to Ninos lean towards cooler, wetter springs around here... most recent examples being 2009 and 2012.   The Nino in 2012 obviously never matured but it was heading that way though summer before fading away.

 

Seems to me like the opposite is true. Looking at developing Ninos this century, 2014 and 2015 were both warm springs, 2009 flipped warm in May after a cold March and average April, 2006 was pretty much average, and 2004 was warm. Our warmest summers tend to come during developing or established Ninos as well.

 

Our chilliest springs like 2011, 2010, and 2008 all came during developing or established Ninas, and our coolest summers also come during Ninas. Not that there aren't counter examples to this stuff obviously, but the dice seem to be loaded towards warmer springs/summers in developing/established Ninos and cooler during developing/established Ninas.

[TT-SEA]

Seems to me like the opposite is true. Looking at developing Ninos this century, 2014 and 2015 were both warm springs, 2009 flipped warm in May after a cold March and average April, 2006 was pretty much average, and 2004 was warm. Our warmest summers tend to come during developing or established Ninos as well.

 

Our chilliest springs like 2011, 2010, and 2008 all came during developing or established Ninas, and our coolest summers also come during Ninas. Not that there aren't counter examples to this stuff obviously, but the dice seem to be loaded towards warmer springs/summers in developing/established Ninos and cooler during developing/established Ninas.

I have just noticed that some type of Nina to Nino transition in the spring and summer tends to mean a slow start to the warm season. I guess 2015 was a big exception obviously. Seems like this is not that type of year.

[Phil]

Even though I know every Niño is different, I am not happy to hear this.

Yeah, this Niño is clearly evolving much differently relative to 2015/16..the EPAC oceanic rossby wave is dominant over the WPAC one, plus the PMM integral is almost inverted. This type of evolution is a throwback to the old school Niños, before the 1997/98 event.

[Phil]

Interesting to note that, despite the SSTA forecasts, a bifurcated convective regime is retained into May on all the modeling, and given the strength of the IPWP, that doesn't surprise me.

 

I think this precludes a stronger Niño. However, the ridiculous +SIOD and EPAC standing wave both argue for a Niño..so maybe we develop a weak Niño by J/A/S, peaking between 0.5 to 1.0C on the monthly ONI?

[Jesse]

Interesting to note that, despite the SSTA forecasts, a bifurcated convective regime is retained into May on all the modeling, and given the strength of the IPWP, that doesn't surprise me.

 

I think this precludes a stronger Niño. However, the ridiculous +SIOD and EPAC standing wave both argue for a Niño..so maybe we develop a weak Niño by J/A/S, peaking between 0.5 to 1.0C on the monthly ONI?

What kind of affect will this have on our observed weather out here in the upper left through the summer, in your opinion?

[Phil]

What kind of affect will this have on our observed weather out here in the upper left through the summer, in your opinion?

Well, initially I think it favors a GOA low sitting on/close to the PNW coast, on the low frequency. So perhaps a cool, moist, onshore flow type pattern to open summer?

 

How things evolve from there will depend on whether the SSTAs/convection start cranking between 160E and 150W, as well as the IOD/Indo signature.

[Phil]

Should see notable ENSO/SSTA warming through April. The Walker Cell will be going into the snoozer in the mean time, and a WWB pattern may try to establish later in the month.

[TT-SEA]

SSTA update...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

And the 7-day change shows more warming in the ENSO regions and the Indian Ocean is warming as well...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Jesse]

Warm warm warm warm warm. Hurry up global warming, Tim needs you!

[Phil]

Maritime forcing/Walker Cell are taking a huge hit this month:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[TT-SEA]

Warm warm warm warm warm. Hurry up global warming, Tim needs you!

 

Just reporting what is happening.   Sorry about that.  

[Jesse]

Maritime forcing/Walker Cell are taking a huge hit this month:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

What does this mean for ENSO?

[Phil]

Just reporting what is happening. Sorry about that.

The whole El Niño = global warming thing is also a huge misnomer on longer timescales, since the equatorward focus of heat and convection is a prerequisite for global cooling and glacial inception. El Niño certainly can/does lead to global warming on weather weenie timescales, but contrary to popular belief, the Niño regime is actually a reflection of a reduction in the poleward transport of heat and moisture, which inhibits proper ventilation of the ocean/atmosphere system through the polar domain, and leads to an initial global warming until the spatial equilibration point is reached.

 

This has already been happening, and it's why the polar subsurface waters are cooling, while the tropical subsurface waters have been warming:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5FA5FEA1-6E68-443C-979E-A4B688F16593_zpsm4o5zspx.jpg

[Phil]

What does this mean for ENSO?

Weaker Walker Cell = weaker trade winds = ENSO warming.

 

The feedbacks of which intensify the Hadley Cells and influence the extratropical wave trains.

[Jesse]

Weaker Walker Cell = weaker trade winds = ENSO warming.

 

The feedbacks of which intensify the Hadley Cells and influence the extratropical wave trains.

That sucks.

[Phil]

That sucks.

As you correctly noted, not all Niños are creating equally. This one feels more like an old school, 70s/80s/early 90s style event, given where the EPAC is right now.

[Jesse]

As you correctly noted, not all Niños are creating equally. This one feels more like an old school, 70s/80s/early 90s style event, given where the EPAC is right now.

As long as we don't revert to the endless western torch of 2014-16 I'm fine with whatever.

[BLI snowman]

As long as we don't revert to the endless western torch of 2014-16 I'm fine with whatever.

 

Agreed, a 1986-87 or 1991-92 old school style torch would be highly preferable. 

[Phil]

As long as we don't revert to the endless western torch of 2014-16 I'm fine with whatever.

That's almost certainly off the table. The IO/PMM system is what drove that +PNA super-regime, which is common in years during/just after solar maximum. More likely I think is a raging subtropical/pacific jet type situation with stronger diabatic heat release poleward from the enhanced EPAC convection under a reduced IO/ATL counterpart.

[Dan the Weatherman]

As long as we don't revert to the endless western torch of 2014-16 I'm fine with whatever.

 

I don't want to see that 2014-16 pattern either, since that time period was when the worst of the drought in CA occurred. An old school El Nino pattern would have a much higher probability of bringing a wet winter to CA, unless the overall climate patterns have dramatically changed since then due to factors such as low Arctic sea ice extent, etc.

[Guest happ]

I don't want to see that 2014-16 pattern either, since that time period was when the worst of the drought in CA occurred. An old school El Nino pattern would have a much higher probability of bringing a wet winter to CA, unless the overall climate patterns have dramatically changed since then due to factors such as low Arctic sea ice extent, etc.

 

Summer/ early autumn of 2015 provided abundant moisture followed by an excruciating empty El Nino winter.  

[Dan the Weatherman]

Summer/ early autumn of 2015 provided abundant moisture followed by an excruciating empty El Nino winter.  

 

May, July and September 2015 brought more rain than the February through April period did!

[Phil]

I don't want to see that 2014-16 pattern either, since that time period was when the worst of the drought in CA occurred. An old school El Nino pattern would have a much higher probability of bringing a wet winter to CA, unless the overall climate patterns have dramatically changed since then due to factors such as low Arctic sea ice extent, etc.

Arctic sea ice doesn't do diddly squat in terms of forcing the boreal winter circulations. That has almost everything to do with the interaction between the large scale tropical convective cells and the stratosphere, as well as solar-geomagnetic forcing on both of those via photochemical and thermokinetic forcings.

 

The Arctic experiences a perpetual radiative deficit, its multidecadal warming has been largely confined to winter, when there is zero albedo effect, because it receives no solar radiation...only warm air advection from the south, which has increased since the late 1970s thanks to the poleward expansion of the Hadley Cells.

 

Meanwhile, summer Arctic melt season temperatures have actually declined since the 1950s above 70N. Arctic sea ice does have some effect on circulation in the warm season, since it alters the radiation fluxes that govern polar O^3 content and themal wind evolution in the absence of an upper level PV, but even those effects are dwarfed by the aforementioned forcings.

[Phil]

Since 1959, the four coldest Arctic summers above 80N have all occurred in the last 8yrs (2009, 2010, 2013, 2014). The summer of 2013 was the coldest.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

This is when the albedo effect (and "Arctic amplification") is forecasted to be the strongest by climate models. Instead, the exact opposite occurs during this time. Why? The answer is that the enhanced polar warming is being forced externally, by poleward migrating subtropical circulation cells, and that during summer, the powerful cold season mid-latitude cyclones (which are the conduits to this poleward advection of warm air in the absence of solar radiation) do not occur, hence the lack of warming. That along with latent heat absorption via ice melt.

[Phil]

Looks like a modest MJO-type response to the final stratospheric warming is now underway. Could this be what kickstarts the Niño process?

 

Modest WWB regime has resulted:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

Huge changes in the tropical forcing next week:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Phil]

With WHEM MJO ignition, there's gonna be a solid WWB sometime in early May. At least based on this year's apparent periodicity.

[Guest happ]

Come on el nino

 

[Phil]

It's probably coming, but keep in mind the NMME tends to have an outrageous warm-bias globally, especially in the tropics.

[Mr Marine Layer]

El Nino was a dud here in 2015-16, but it could be that it was too strong. Another slightly above average winter would probably end the drought here.

[Phil]

Westerlies upcoming:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Guest happ]

Yikes, look at northern Alaska!