ENSO Discussion

[snow_wizard]

The Weatherbell forecast almost reeks of being a wishcast IMO.  I know I'm guilty of that on occasion, but their evidence is thin for going so far outside of climo for a cold ENSO winter.

[TT-SEA]

The Weatherbell forecast almost reeks of being a wishcast IMO.  I know I'm guilty of that on occasion, but their evidence is thin for going so far outside of climo for a cold ENSO winter.

They are letting the new blob dictate their thinking.

[snow_wizard]

They are letting the new blob dictate their thinking.

 

I think it might be time for me to contact Nick Bond about this.  The guy who named the blob a couple of years ago.  He may have a far different opinion about its implications given the fact the warmest portion of it is much further offshore now.

[TT-SEA]

I think it might be time for me to contact Nick Bond about this.  The guy who named the blob a couple of years ago.  He may have a far different opinion about its implications given the fact the warmest portion of it is much further offshore now.

 

 

Its just a seasonal forecast... those are usually wrong anyways.     Everyone has opinions... nature will decide.

[Black Hole]

The reality is that Joe B. cannot make level headed forecasts. I have never seen him not forecast a cold east and a warm west. It's the same every single winter. Sometimes it works out, but he clearly is guilty of wishcasting what he wants to see.

 

Of course that doesn't mean he couldn't be right, it could be another warm winter out here. But there are a lot of indicators that this winter will not be another western blowtorch if you ask me. 

[Phil]

Weatherbell's updated winter forecast:

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast

 

I mean, a lot of it is fairly well reasoned. I think they have nailed the jet placement for winter. I wouldn't be surprised to see the PNW overall be about normal or slightly above in the temp department, but have a couple weeks where the temps are in the deep freeze. Fraser Outflow FTW!

I think they're too far east with the trough axis, but that's what I thought back in 2013/14 as well, and I ended up being wrong.

 

FWIW, not much science here, but this kinda has vibes of a crappy winter in my area, at least overall, which wouldn't jive with WxBell's outlook. I've noticed that blowtorch summers followed by dry autumns tend to precede warmer than average winters here. My hunches have been wrong before, though.

[Phil]

I'm a bit dubious about their use of 2014-15 and 2015-16 as analogs. They were both Ninos after all.

They're using those years as analogs? Woah..

 

I could see 2013/14, 1995/96, or 1985/86 being valuable additions, but 2014/15 was a +ENSO/-QBO regime, and 2015/16 was, well..yeah.

[stuffradio]

They're using those years as analogs? Woah..

 

I could see 2013/14, 1995/96, or 1985/86 being valuable additions, but 2014/15 was a +ENSO/-QBO regime, and 2015/16 was, well..yeah.

Yes, they are using 14-15 as well. Having watched Joe B's videos for a long time, he tends to focus on the East coast and provide little to no info for the west coast. Maybe just a quick mention, but then continue to talk about cold in the east.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, I was running some cross-correlations on ESRL tonight and found something similar. The latitude of the NPAC in October is actually a good predictor of the midwinter NPAC state. Much more predictive than I'd originally thought.

 

I also found that an Alaskan vortex during the middle & later portions of October is strongly correlated to reduced NPAC blocking during DJF, so I guess that's something we want to avoid. The correlative signal here falls apart in November, however.

Finally coming around to October correlations, huh?

[Front Ranger]

The reality is that Joe B. cannot make level headed forecasts. I have never seen him not forecast a cold east and a warm west. It's the same every single winter. Sometimes it works out, but he clearly is guilty of wishcasting what he wants to see.

 

Of course that doesn't mean he couldn't be right, it could be another warm winter out here. But there are a lot of indicators that this winter will not be another western blowtorch if you ask me.

2007-08 he went cold west/warm east. That's the only one I remember. Maybe 2010-11.

[Phil]

Finally coming around to October correlations, huh?

Haha, possibly. I've also found a decent correlation between 50mb temperatures over Siberia in November, and the December/January EPO/NAM state and ratio between said states and that of February.

[Phil]

If this winter ends up verifying cold central/warm west & east coasts, I guess he could still claim victory.

[westcoastexpat]

They're using those years as analogs? Woah..

 

I could see 2013/14, 1995/96, or 1985/86 being valuable additions, but 2014/15 was a +ENSO/-QBO regime, and 2015/16 was, well..yeah.

I very much agree with 2013-14

[Front Ranger]

Nice list except for 1966.

 

I have found that strong surface pressure over the NE Pacific in October is perhaps the most important indicator for a cold winter in the NW there is.  I made an index that is a variant of the NPI that looks more specifically at anomalies more in the eastern part of the North Pacific and the correlation is near 100% when dealing with abnormally strong positive anoms.

 

Yeah, no real Arctic air in the PNW that winter, though there was some lowland snowfall with marginal air masses. It was still a fairly blocky winter overall, but most of the cold air spilled east, especially in February.

[snow_wizard]

I very much agree with 2013-14

 

Yes...I can see that one, but 14-15?  As it is 2013-14 was the 40th coldest winter on record for WA.

[westcoastexpat]

Yes...I can see that one, but 14-15? As it is 2013-14 was the 40th coldest winter on record for WA.

I don't agree with 14-15 either. That was a weird winter.

[stuffradio]

13-14 did have some cold shots, and that "snow" (flurries) during the Heritage classic on March 1 in Vancouver.

[ShawniganLake]

13-14 did have some cold shots, and that "snow" (flurries) during the Heritage classic on March 1 in Vancouver.

The end of February was snowy in SW BC but not overly cold. Snow was wet though and had a hard time sticking down near sea level. I would think the main point to complain about that year was the lack of moisture with the December and early February cold spells. Snowpacks were concerning low after a dry and mild mid winter. Driest December ever at Shawnigan lake, I doubt we see a repeat of that. February and March saw a recovery in that department.

[Farmboy]

I think it might be time for me to contact Nick Bond about this.  The guy who named the blob a couple of years ago.  He may have a far different opinion about its implications given the fact the warmest portion of it is much further offshore now.

Ok, maybe I don't know what I'm talking about here, I'm just asking, but is this at all indicative of where blocking high pressure could set up?   And if so, is this the favored location that we would like to see for arctic air intrusions in the PNW?

[snow_wizard]

13-14 did have some cold shots, and that "snow" (flurries) during the Heritage classic on March 1 in Vancouver.

 

Portland got nailed in February.  The two cold shots were pretty impressive also.  The interesting thing is how perfectly 2013-14 mirrored 1932-33 and 2014-15 mirrored 1933-34 in spite of the ENSO being totally different.

[snow_wizard]

Ok, maybe I don't know what I'm talking about here, I'm just asking, but is this at all indicative of where blocking high pressure could set up?   And if so, is this the favored location that we would like to see for arctic air intrusions in the PNW?

 

Yes.

 

The perfect location for blocking for cold in the NW is between 140W and 155W.  150 is the sweet spot for major cold and snow.

[Phil]

Yes.

 

The perfect location for blocking for cold in the NW is between 140W and 155W. 150 is the sweet spot for major cold and snow.

I think he's asking if "the blob" is indicative of where the blocking will set up in the future?

 

I'd personally say no, the blob is indicative of where the blocking has already been, which is indicative of a systematic tendency, that might continue into the future.

[snow_wizard]

I think he's asking if "the blob" is indicative of where the blocking will set up in the future?

 

I'd personally say no, the blob is indicative of where the blocking has already been, which is indicative of a systematic tendency, that might continue into the future.

 

I totally agree with this.  The persistence this summer suggests future blocking will probably set up in a similar location.

[westcoastexpat]

I totally agree with this.  The persistence this summer suggests future blocking will probably set up in a similar location.

 

It's a fair assessment.

 

Blob years:

2013-2014 winter: deep trough in east

2014 summer: hot in west, cold in east

2014-2015 winter: western ridging

2015 summer: hot in west

 

It's not a bad assumption to expect a SE ridge this winter.

 

I again have to maintain that I don't think cold will be tough to get this winter for the PNW, but aligning it with moisture will be the challenge...

[Phil]

It's a fair assessment.

 

Blob years:

2013-2014 winter: deep trough in east

2014 summer: hot in west, cold in east

2014-2015 winter: western ridging

2015 summer: hot in west

 

It's not a bad assumption to expect a SE ridge this winter.

 

I again have to maintain that I don't think cold will be tough to get this winter for the PNW, but aligning it with moisture will be the challenge...

Blob summer of 2016: Dominant western trough, blast furnace in the east.

[Front Ranger]

Blob summer of 2016: Dominant western trough, blast furnace in the east.

 

Not exactly.

 

 

[Phil]

Not exactly.

 

JJA16TDeptUS.png

Should have said July-September.

 

There was no "blob" in June.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/46B8FC56-E60D-468D-BC48-A5E6FE9E8480_zpsfle3mysk.jpg

[Front Ranger]

Gotcha. Yeah, Jul-Sep has definitely fit that profile more.

[luvssnow_seattle]

It's a fair assessment.

 

Blob years:

2013-2014 winter: deep trough in east

2014 summer: hot in west, cold in east

2014-2015 winter: western ridging

2015 summer: hot in west

 

It's not a bad assumption to expect a SE ridge this winter.

 

I again have to maintain that I don't think cold will be tough to get this winter for the PNW, but aligning it with moisture will be the challenge...

 

That is and always will be a challenge here... Even if we do get moisture then we often have to deal with the puget sound rain shadow. Albeit it always keeps us guessing. Bring on the frost we can count on that for sure. 

[Phil]

Where's all this warm water coming from?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[TT-SEA]

Where's all this warm water coming from?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Good question.   

[Phil]

Good question.

I'm stumped. Don't see evidence of any major oceanic KW, and unlikely to be a result of instability waves or convergence, according to the surface-current datasets.

 

Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess.

[TT-SEA]

I'm stumped. Don't see evidence of any major oceanic KW, and unlikely to be a result of instability waves or convergence, according to the surface-current datasets.

 

Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess.

 

 

Also looks like the most of the Earth has warmer than normal ocean water.

[Jesse]

This would only make sense if there were some sort of unnatural force warming the entire globe...but that is crazy talk.

[Phil]

Also looks like the most of the Earth has warmer than normal ocean water.

Yeah, classic for off-equator SSTAs to go nuclear following a super-niño.

[TT-SEA]

Or natural forces warming the entire globe.  

[Phil]

Or natural forces warming the entire globe.

This was the first super niño to occur/superimpose itself on the very warm 2001-present background state, so yeah it's definitely a different look.

 

Global SSTAs should drop significantly over the next several years, however.

[TT-SEA]

This was the first super niño to occur/superimpose itself on the very warm 2001-present background state, so yeah it's definitely a different look.

 

Global SSTAs should drop significantly over the next several years, however.

 

 

Sort of like bumble bees being able to fly..sometimes nature just doesn't give a s**t about what we think it should do, I guess.

 

[Phil]

 

Haha, we'll see I guess.

[stuffradio]

This would only make sense if there were some sort of unnatural force warming the entire globe...but that is crazy talk.

It's aliens.. or the NWO.

[ShawniganLake]

Where's all this warm water coming from?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

The blob is feeding it.........we're screwed.

[Front Ranger]

It's Godzilla, guys.

[Deweydog]

The blob is feeding it.........we're screwed.

I thought the blob was annihilated by all that tropical churning last week???

[snow_wizard]

 

 

That is and always will be a challenge here... Even if we do get moisture then we often have to deal with the puget sound rain shadow. Albeit it always keeps us guessing. Bring on the frost we can count on that for sure. 

 

 

You're only referring to recent years.  It used to be much more common.

[ShawniganLake]

Nino3.4 has gone positive for the first time since early July.  WTF

[Weather101]

[BLI snowman]

Nino3.4 has gone positive for the first time since early July.  WTF

 

I doubt it, CPC has it at -0.6 on 9/14

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[stuffradio]

Nino3.4 has gone positive for the first time since early July.  WTF

What's your source? It's showing negative for me still.

[ShawniganLake]

What's your source? It's showing negative for me still.

Maybe this is way off. Not sure

 

[Phil]

Yikes..could the CDAS data be flawed in some way? Trades have been stronger than average, subsurface is quite cold, yet..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png