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snow_wizard

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Some pockets of warmer water, but nothing crazy yet.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Nice cold pocket off the West Coast now.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It was a serious question. I thought maybe you lived in an area where niño climo favors more active winter wx.

 

I live in the southeastern US so winters here can be more active but I really don't care because NINO winters usually feature huge gradients in snowfall over central and western NC that screws over my particular area relative to climo favored areas to my NW. I talked about a double NINA about a year and a half ago while most were still convinced a NINO was coming in 2017, so I'm pretty unbiased.

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Why do you want a niño so bad?

I don’t think he “wants” a niño. He’s simply seeing a signal for one, and is sticking to his guns on the idea. Very respectable IMO and it’s something I wish more meteorologists would do, instead of waffling with every run of the CFSv2.

 

We have too many model-ologists out there already.

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Now that's the kind of WWB this El Nino event needs.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

 

So its about to get stronger?   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So its about to get stronger?

If it continues, then yes. I still think the periodicity of the intraseasonals is on the high side (hence the very slow establishment of a low frequency component..more-so than any of the modern niños I can find).

 

So I’m stubbornly hugging the idea of the slow walk into the 2019/20 niño with this being more of an onset year than a climax year. I’m not sure it will meet the CPC’s ONI criteria until at least JFM.

 

I thought we might head-fake into niño conditions in A/S/O this year, but so far it’s run a bit cooler than I thought.

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If it continues, then yes. I still think the periodicity of the intraseasonals is on the high side (hence the very slow establishment of a low frequency component..more-so than any of the modern niños I can find).

 

So I’m stubbornly hugging the idea of the slow walk into the 2019/20 niño with this being more of an onset year than a climax year. I’m not sure it will meet the CPC’s ONI criteria until at least JFM.

 

I thought we might head-fake into niño conditions in A/S/O this year, but so far it’s run a bit cooler than I thought.

So now you're hedging towards an actual Nino. Head faked the head fake.

 

Smart man.

A forum for the end of the world.

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So now you're hedging towards an actual Nino. Head faked the head fake.

 

Smart man.

What? Nothing’s changed.

 

I’ve been calling for the inception of a niño in 2019/20 for several years now, based on solar cycle/IPWP resonance(s) thru extratropical conduits.

 

And a multi-year niña in the early 2020s as well (centered in 2021 and 2022).

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Weak ENSO's mean variability with storms, dry air, snow events, etc. IIRC, 2006-07 was a weak Nina.

2006-2007 was actually an El nino I remember that winter well here in the eastern seaboard it started off very warm December first hafe of January then the bottom fell out and february was very cold with the all out sleet ice storm Valentine's day 2007.the next winter was when we went into a moderate to strong nina which was 2007-2008.
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Just so there’s no misunderstanding, I’m not expecting a collapse to cold neutral like 2012/13.

 

I think we’ll see the weak niño head fake during the second half of summer into early autumn (in terms of ONI) with a return to neutral or warm neutral during the late autumn and winter.

 

;)

A forum for the end of the world.

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;)

Yes, exactly. How is that any different than what I’m calling for now?

 

Maybe you should read more carefully next time.

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For the record, Flatiron conveniently left out my follow-up post elaborating on my prediction of the evolution of this event.

 

 

It just seems that you've gradually moved more towards the eventual Nino camp over the last few months. At some points I swear you said you didn't think we'd see a true Nino in 2019-20. But I haven't closely followed every post in this thread.

A forum for the end of the world.

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It just seems that you've gradually moved more towards the eventual Nino camp over the last few months. At some points I swear you said you didn't think we'd see a true Nino in 2019-20. But I haven't closely followed every post in this thread.

You must have me confused with someone else.

 

If my outlook was changing, I’d make that be known, and explain my reasoning. No point in clinging to a sinking ship.

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Another neat NWP experiment came out in nature recently, finding some of what we already know in that cross-equatorial wind behavior in the Pacific favors a NINA base state and reduces ENSO amplitude in the model, and SSTAs shift westward.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0248-0

That was a fascinating read! Thanks for this.

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Weak ENSO's mean variability with storms, dry air, snow events, etc. IIRC, 2006-07 was a weak Nina.

I would love a repeat of 06/07, what a fun active winter that was!!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2006-2007 was actually an El nino I remember that winter well here in the eastern seaboard it started off very warm December first hafe of January then the bottom fell out and february was very cold with the all out sleet ice storm Valentine's day 2007.the next winter was when we went into a moderate to strong nina which was 2007-2008.

I remember that one! We had something like 5-8” of sleet on top of 1-2” of snow. Then some ZR to glaciate it before that surge of hurricane force winds blasted in behind the Arctic front. A truly unforgettable Feb/Mar that year.

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Looks like another round of trades coming up after this WWB, according to the EPS. How potent/long-lasting they end up being is debatable, but the general theme (slow, hesitant, impotent transition into a more +ENSO-like circulation) remains the same.

 

Which still leads me to believe this is a 2014-like scenario with the slow walk into the +ENSO after the initial overshoot/head-fake, then the real deal comes later. Good chance it takes until early 2019 to cross the “official” niño threshold, and perhaps a legitimate moderate to strong niño could unfold for 2019/20.

 

Ksn8Xw2.jpg

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2014-15 was a fantastic fall and winter around these parts. Honestly cannot wait.

I wasn’t trying to suggest it’s a great winter analog for the middle/high latitudes. There are other factors too.

 

Keep in mind 2014/15 occurred during the heart of solar maximum, which changed the manner in which the QBO/BDC affected the NAM/high latitude interplay w/ the tropics. It was the 2nd most +NAO winter on record.

 

This winter we have a legitimately quiet Sun (both in terms of solar wind/AP index and radiative fluxes). So we should avoid a semi-permanent Greenland/Arctic vortex, and might even pull off the first -NAO winter since 2010/11, given the timing of the QBO cycling favoring excess O^3 in the subtropics as the PV is developing under a slowly developing low frequency dateline forcing regime.

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Another neat NWP experiment came out in nature recently, finding some of what we already know in that cross-equatorial wind behavior in the Pacific favors a NINA base state and reduces ENSO amplitude in the model, and SSTAs shift westward.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0248-0

I won't get a chance to read this till I am back at school tomorrow. Anyway, with regards to the westward focused SSTA's, are these similarly base shifted towards la nina, or is the westward shift because the eastern part of the basin is la nina shifted?

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I have to give you credit Phil... you have not wavered and it looks like you are going to end up being right again.

Thanks, but we’ll see. At some point the lines between warm neutral and weak niño are blurred, as far as impacts are concerned. IMO, it’s really about how we choose to define these events. I’d personally prefer a scale without so many threshold-based criteria.

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Thanks, but we’ll see. At some point the lines between warm neutral and weak niño are blurred, as far as impacts are concerned. IMO, it’s really about how we choose to define these events. I’d personally prefer a scale without so many threshold-based criteria.

Thanks for all your insight and knowledge man. Giving us hope.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Whether this year becomes el nino or only stays warm-neutral it does seem that it will focus on the central pacific region. What sorts of analogs do we have based on that? How about based on MEI?
 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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  • 4 weeks later...

Strictly from a solar cycle point of view a Nino is very unlikely this winter.  We are in a very deep solar minimum with activity still dropping.  2006-07 did manage to acheive a Nino under such conditions, but the winter was atypical for a Nino winter in the NW.  October through much of January were awesome that season.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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FWIW the Jul / Aug MEI of .132 also means a Nino is pretty unlikely.  There has never been a Nino in the winter following such a low Jul / Aug MEI in the poeriod of record.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Strictly from a solar cycle point of view a Nino is very unlikely this winter. We are in a very deep solar minimum with activity still dropping. 2006-07 did manage to acheive a Nino under such conditions, but the winter was atypical for a Nino winter in the NW. October through much of Janaury were awesome that season.

I would argue that low solar actually primes the system for more frequent (and weaker) El Niños in the long run, which is not a bad thing for the PNW the longer it goes on.

 

Keep in mind, the LIA/1600-1800 period was dominated by weak +ENSO/equatorward convection, while the MWP was dominated by -ENSO/off-equator convection.

 

The mode of circulation associated with +ENSO/-NAM and equatorward z-cells/subtropical highs actually produces a relatively large heat budget deficit that cools the globe over time, via more favorably located convection for diabatic ventilation and albedo. And the resulting feedback (a tightening of the LTG/EF feedback structure to further dampen poleward advection thru the ET-NATL conduit) helps to sustain the regime peripherally. Meanwhile, the opposite is true for -ENSO/+NAM.

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Update from Klaus Wolter:  "Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral rankings. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018

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Update from Klaus Wolter:  "Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral rankings. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018

 

Not that he is predicting La Nina, but he also says:

"With the MEI showing ENSO-neutral conditions, four key anomalies in the MEI component fields flag La Niña, compared to only one for El Niño. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase (compare to loadings figure).

Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, southerly wind anomalies (V) to the north of the Equator and south of Hawai'i, and unusually warm temperatures (S and A) northeast of Australia. All of these anomalies are indicators of La Niña.

On the other hand, westerly wind anomalies (U) along and north of the Equator from the Maritime Continent to the dateline flag emerging El Niño conditions."

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SST anomaly for region 3.4 has risen a bit, but nothing significant. 

I think quite a few forecasters are going to be wrong about this winters forecast as it stands now.

nino34.png

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Share on other sites

Nino 3.4 has almost dropped to zero now.  An El Nino this winter would be a tall order at this point.  I could certainly live with warm neutral.  We often get good winters with that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Nino 3.4 has almost dropped to zero now. An El Nino this winter would be a tall order at this point. I could certainly live with warm neutral. We often get good winters with that.

Excellent news.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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