ENSO Discussion

[Jesse]

Yeah, it's actually been a nasty stretch here, outside 2013/14 and 2014/15. Blowtorch for five consecutive Decembers, two of our five warmest winters on record, four of our seven hottest summers on record, etc.

 

Snowfall is another story, but that's 90% storm track and luck...any storm that tracks to our south during Jan/Feb will produce snowfall here. Sometimes our coldest winters are the least snowy.

At least you guys had a few epic years in the mix. We have not enjoyed such a thing.

 

And generally warmer years overall are to be expected with global warming.

[Phil]

The east has had some historically cold winters in the last five years.

Yeah, and we've had some historic blowtorches as well. Last winter was our second warmest all time (warmest ever in my city), and 2011/12 was our 4th warmest all time. Not to mention the December ridiculousness. It's not even a winter month anymore..March/April have been more wintry than December in recent years (these two months have been cooling exponentially in recent years here), then it's right into torch season...we skip right over Spring now. It used to be my favorite season.

[BLI snowman]

You sure about that? Last winter was an eastern blowtorch, and 2014/15 was also a torch until February/March. Also, 2012/13, and 2011/12 were both eastern blowtorches, along with 2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08, and most of 2008/09.

 

I think we're more due than you guys.

 

How so? The vast majority of our recent winters have been warm. Relative to average, we haven't seen a winter as cold as 2014-15 was in the Northeast in a long time. 

[Phil]

At least you guys had a few epic years in the mix. We have not enjoyed such a thing.

 

And generally warmer years overall are to be expected with global warming.

True, but I doubt a few degrees of warming can explain these variances. Our seasons are being pushed back...our autumn months are now October-December, our winter months are January-April, then we get a few weeks in May and/or early June to enjoy Spring before the blast furnace takes over until late September.

 

It snowed in May this year, and it was 95 degrees here until a week ago. Just stupid. I want normal seasons back.

[Phil]

How so? The vast majority of our recent winters have been warm. Relative to average, we haven't seen a winter as cold as 2014-15 was in the Northeast in a long time.

I agree you're more due for extreme cold and/or a significant Arctic blast. However, we've had just as many "warm" winters as you guys over the last decade. Just saying.

[BLI snowman]

I agree you're more due for extreme cold and/or a significant Arctic blast. However, we've had just as many "warm" winters as you guys over the last decade.

 

And as has been reiterated to death, we've probably also had a bit more regional repetition in our annual woes progression here. The east at least had impressive cold in December in 2010, which is still recent, and then years like 2000 and 1989. January has been almost perpetually warm here for decades now and you have to go back to 1980 to find a historically impressive one for us. 

[Phil]

And as has been reiterated to death, we've probably also had a bit more regional repetition in our annual woes progression here. The east at least had impressive cold in December in 2010, which is still recent, and then years like 2000 and 1989. January has been almost perpetually warm here for decades now and you have to go back to 1980 to find a historically impressive one for us.

Not disputing this at all. I'm just looking at the frequencies of warm/cold winters overall, in recent decades. There's roughly an even balance, I think.

 

In my opinion, the month to month peculiarities belong in a different category. Whether they're just an oddity or something more systematic, I don't think we can know just yet. It sure feels like something systematic to me, but I have no science to back that up.

[BLI snowman]

Not disputing this at all. I'm just looking at the frequencies of warm/cold winters overall, in recent decades. There's roughly an even balance, I think.

 

In my opinion, the month to month peculiarities belong in a different category. Whether they're just an oddity or something more systematic, I don't think we can know just yet. It sure feels like something systematic to me, but I have no science to back that up.

 

I agree that i's not as imbalanced as it may initially seem, but then you have recent years like 2002-03 and 2014-15 with the blowtorch West/cold East combo and you really don't have anything comparable on the opposite side of the spectrum in recent years, which likely accentuates the idea that we're more due. All of your warmer winters have been mild out here as well. Gone are the 1936-37 or 1948-49 type winters where dramatic, large-scale mid latitude blocking occurred and heavily favored our region while the East torched.

[Phil]

I agree that i's not as imbalanced as it may initially seem, but then you have recent years like 2002-03 and 2014-15 with the blowtorch West/cold East combo and you really don't have anything comparable on the opposite side of the spectrum in recent years, which likely accentuates the idea that we're more due. All of your warmer winters have been mild out here as well.

Looks to me like 2007/08 fit that general bill (cold west/warm east), and to some extent, 2008/09 and 2011/12 as well. Can think of several 1980s/1990s years like that, too.

 

Gone are the 1936-37 or 1948-49 type winters where dramatic, large-scale mid latitude blocking occurred and heavily favored our region while the East torched.

Honestly, I think this type of pattern is more difficult to achieve, let alone maintain for an extended period of time, simply given large scale topography and streamflow. I don't think you can expect something like this to occur frequently..it requires a slew of self reinforcing oddities.

 

Certainly, the poleward migration of the Hadley Cells since the late 1970s isn't helping for a number of reasons, but I'm not sure this pattern is as common as you're thinking, in the long run. Certainly, it's not nearly as common as blocky patterns that favor the Central/Eastern US.

[BLI snowman]

Looks to me like 2007/08 fit that general bill (cold west/warm east), and to some extent, 2008/09 and 2011/12 as well. Can think of several 1980s/1990s years like that, too.

 

 

Honestly, this type of pattern is more difficult to achieve, let alone maintain for an extended period of time, simply given large scale topography and streamflow. I don't think you can expect something like this to occur frequently..it requires a slew of self reinforcing oddities.

 

Certainly, the poleward migration of the Hadley Cells isn't helping for a number of reasons, but I'm not sure this pattern is as common as you're thinking, in the long run. Certainly, it's not nearly as common as blocky patterns that favor the Central/Eastern US.

 

2011-12 was warm overall for the West. 2007-08 was cool in the SW but had near average temperatures for the NW, definitely not a genuine cold one by any stretch for us here. I would say that the closest recent example was 2008-09, which had a solidly cold December across the entire West while the East torched. But the opposite occurred the following month, which negated most of the overall disparities that winter.

 

Topographical differences do explain a lot of the longitudinal bias in airmass trajectory but that certainly hasn't stopped a cold West/warm East setup from occurring many times in the past with help from large-scale blocks. Most  examples were before the 1976 PDO flip. The dearth of examples since then is far more noticeable. December 2008, January 1993, December 1990, and November 1985 would probably be the best examples since then. 

[Phil]

2011-12 was warm overall for the West. 2007-08 was cool in the SW but had near average temperatures for the NW, definitely not a genuine cold one by any stretch for us here. I would say that the closest recent example was 2008-09, which had a solidly cold December across the entire West while the East torched. But the opposite occurred the following month, which negated most of the overall disparities that winter.

 

Topographical differences do explain a lot of the longitudinal bias in airmass trajectory but that certainly hasn't stopped a cold West/warm East setup from occurring many times in the past with help from large-scale blocks. Most examples were before the 1976 PDO flip. The dearth of examples since then is far more noticeable. December 2008, January 1993, December 1990, and November 1985 would probably be the best examples since then.

I don't think I can refute this. I could point to a limited timeframe of observation, but that'd be handwaving.

 

I highly recommend giving this paper a read. I strongly believe this explains most of your woes in recent decades:

 

http://www.clim-past.net/8/1169/2012/cp-8-1169-2012.pdf

[Phil]

Here's the authors' conclusion, for those not wanting to read through it:

 

We conclude that the 20CR2 does indicate a slight strengthening and widening of the Hadley Circulation for the past three decades, corroborated by the results of recent analyses. However, over longer periods (1871–2008), the Hadley Circulation has become stronger and narrower. Moreover, we speculate that the width of the Hadley Circulation might have not finished a full life-cycle since the 1870s, which indicates the observed expansion in recent decades might be a reflection of a long-period oscillation. The position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is effectively a tracer of the horizontal scale of the Hadley cell (Hu et al., 2007).

 

Growing paleoclimatic proxy evidence indicates centennial-scale oscillatory behavior of the position of the ITCZ for the past several millennia, i.e. the planktic foraminifera Globigerinoides sacculifer in Gulf of Mexico sediments show the distinct century-scale cyclicity of ITCZ (Poore et al., 2004). Although the identified secular variability of the width of the Hadley Circulation is not inconsistent with the paleoproxy evidence, the interpretation of such variability must be treated with caution because the science is not yet at a stage where sound judgments on this matter can be offered. The long-term changes of the Hadley Circulation might be resolved by a network of proxy observations that describe tropical-subtropical divergence gradients and variations.

 

The strength and width of the Hadley Circulation during the late 19th to early 20th century experienced substantial changes that exceed the changes associated with global warming in recent decades. A simple relationship between the strength and width of the Hadley Circulation and surface temperature is not supported.

 

These findings are intriguing and raise the question of whether the recent changes in the Hadley Circulation are primarily due to greenhouse warming or long-term change of the Hadley Circulation (e.g. variability of the Hadley Circulation at centennial timescales). Attributions of those changes require a deeper understanding of how the strength and width of the Hadley Circulation is controlled under various dynamical regimes, even in the present climate state.

[snow drift]

2011-12 was warm overall for the West. 2007-08 was cool in the SW but had near average temperatures for the NW, definitely not a genuine cold one by any stretch for us here. I would say that the closest recent example was 2008-09, which had a solidly cold December across the entire West while the East torched. But the opposite occurred the following month, which negated most of the overall disparities that winter.

 

Topographical differences do explain a lot of the longitudinal bias in airmass trajectory but that certainly hasn't stopped a cold West/warm East setup from occurring many times in the past with help from large-scale blocks. Most  examples were before the 1976 PDO flip. The dearth of examples since then is far more noticeable. December 2008, January 1993, December 1990, and November 1985 would probably be the best examples since then. 

I would throw in the winter of 1978-79. It is another great example.

[snow_wizard]

That recent spike in the ENSO SST's sure was strange.  It has already fallen back about 0.7 since then.

[Front Ranger]

That recent spike in the ENSO SST's sure was strange.  It has already fallen back about 0.7 since then.

 

I think AST is somehow involved.

[snow_wizard]

I think AST is somehow involved.

 

AST?

[Phil]

AST?

Astoria's drunk sensor..

[Dan the Weatherman]

True, but I doubt a few degrees of warming can explain these variances. Our seasons are being pushed back...our autumn months are now October-December, our winter months are January-April, then we get a few weeks in May and/or early June to enjoy Spring before the blast furnace takes over until late September.

 

It snowed in May this year, and it was 95 degrees here until a week ago. Just stupid. I want normal seasons back.

 

I want this horrible drought in CA to come to an end and to see some wetter winters for the entire state!

[snow_wizard]

I want this horrible drought in CA to come to an end and to see some wetter winters for the entire state!

 

I really think this will be your winter.  Very good chance the high pressure will be shifted north this winter so you could get a lot of undercutting systems.

[ShawniganLake]

Crisis averted. Nino3.4 is back down near -0.4C.

[snow_wizard]

Crisis averted. Nino3.4 is back down near -0.4C.

 

A 0.8 drop in less than a week.  It was just a small chunk of warm water that worked its way through.  That probably did ruin the chances of the monthly mean ending up -0.5 or below though.

[TT-SEA]

Still looks warm in the eastern sections of the ENSO region while the cooler water keeps getting pushed farther west.

 

I am guessing the cooling in the 3.4 region was temporary... warmer water  in the eastern areas is still pushing westward.   

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

 

 

The loop is more informative.   

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Still looks warm in the eastern sections of the ENSO region while the cooler water keeps getting pushed farther west.

 

I am guessing the cooling in the 3.4 region was temporary... warmer water in the eastern areas is still pushing westward.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

 

 

The loop is more informative.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

Nino 1+2 have largely been in the 0 to +0.5 range the last three months. Not much has changed there. I would guess that recent warm spike in 3.4 will be an outlier for awhile. Pretty much the entire basin has cooled in the last 7 days.

[TT-SEA]

Nino 1+2 have largely been in the 0 to +0.5 range the last three months. Not much has changed there. I would guess that recent warm spike in 3.4 will be an outlier for awhile. Pretty much the entire basin has cooled in the last 7 days.

image.png

 

 

Different look on this map showing 7 day change.   Some spots of cooling and some warming.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

[Parksvillewx]

Nino 1+2 have largely been in the 0 to +0.5 range the last three months. Not much has changed there. I would guess that recent warm spike in 3.4 will be an outlier for awhile. Pretty much the entire basin has cooled in the last 7 days.

image.png

 

Looks like "the blob" even cooled a bit.

[snow_wizard]

Current SOI numbers are through the roof and the guidance suggests strong trade winds will continue for at least another week.  Looks like the Nina may really be getting its act together now.

[ShawniganLake]

Current SOI numbers are through the roof and the guidance suggests strong trade winds will continue for at least another week.  Looks like the Nina may really be getting its act together now.

Nino 4 is at the lowest it has been since the Nino died.  3.4 is back below -0.6.

 

 

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_1ec81vVHfA/TnJpImPspXI/AAAAAAAADIY/pj9-ZzU4dZc/s1600/Nino2.jpg

[snow_wizard]

Nino 4 is at the lowest it has been since the Nino died.  3.4 is back below -0.6.

 

 

 

 

Interesting graphic.  I wish the years used were given.  I had no idea west based was so much better for us.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  I was sure right about it crashing after the spike.

[Front Ranger]

Still looks warm in the eastern sections of the ENSO region while the cooler water keeps getting pushed farther west.

 

I am guessing the cooling in the 3.4 region was temporary... warmer water  in the eastern areas is still pushing westward.   

 

 

The loop is more informative.   

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

 

Pretty bad analysis right here.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty bad analysis right here.

 

 

I don't really know ENSO... just looking at the loop.    Nothing more.   

[TT-SEA]

Interesting graphic.  I wish the years used were given.  I had no idea west based was so much better for us.

 

 

It makes sense... everything is shifted westward.   

 

This is the most hopeful graphic I have seen for this coming winter actually... since we clearly have a west-based Nina now.

[Phil]

If there's one "worry" I have, it's that the Niña cell might be biased too far west. A low frequency subsidence regime has dominated the IO/Maritime domain since July, which is very unusual for a Niña. So, when these intraseasonal waves develop, the forcing resembles something like a very east-based Niño.

[TT-SEA]

If there's one "worry" I have, it's that the Niña cell might be biased too far west. Subsidence has dominated the IO/Maritime domain since July, which is very unusual for a Niña. So, when these intraseasonal waves develop, the forcing resembles something like a very east-based Niño.

 

 

I was also thinking that its really far west and seems to be moving even more in that direction.

[Phil]

I was also thinking that its really far west and seems to be moving even more in that direction.

Yeah, it's raised my concern level slightly, though not necessarily negative concern. We have never observed a winter with a tropical background state resembling the one that's dominated since July. In fact, it only describes about 10% of all *intraseasonal* states since adequate records began in the 1970s. So, if it holds into winter, it'll be something new.

 

However, a strong intraseasonal wave could easily change this around, given the unstable nature of this background state, at least as far as I can tell.

[Front Ranger]

If there's one "worry" I have, it's that the Niña cell might be biased too far west. Subsidence has dominated the IO/Maritime domain since July, which is very unusual for a Niña. So, when these intraseasonal waves develop, the forcing resembles something like a very east-based Niño.

 

Is there any precedent for this being an issue?

[Phil]

Is there any precedent for this being an issue?

Unfortunately, since adequate observations began, there's no precedence for a winter background state featuring subsidence over both the IO/MT and WPAC, and if there was, I'd expect to find it in a strong east based Niño.

 

So, just have to lol.

[Phil]

Can't really call this a Niño cell, but it's certainly weird looking.

 

All coherent Niña cells since the 1970s:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EF509581-C0F5-47F2-95EC-399BE4588F23_zpsvljdyurg.png

 

Most clear/coherent Niño cells since the 1970s:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1CDBE7A7-76BB-44AA-A3E2-A0B685A55B73_zpsmyunvs6k.png

[Phil]

Now the GEFS forecast..lol. There's some resemblance to the climatological Niña forcing around 120E, but the WHEM forcing is dominating, similar to that of a Niño, except very east-biased.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B62E95F4-A302-41E4-AC15-DAB2C71FE651_zpsqgsrwyco.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2B4D56DA-1372-4F1C-82E7-5051E52FCEA6_zpsoxwrkpm6.png

[Phil]

Same thing in hovmoller format. The convection around 120E is classic Niña, as is the dateline subsidence, however, the additional convection along/east of 120W is more typical of a Niño.

 

There was a notable mid-September shift along/east of 60E, as well.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4BA35DB8-218A-4BB4-9E85-C08A222D1516_zpsry1fdf3c.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The commentary on here is just stupid.

[Phil]

The commentary on here is just stupid.

Stupid how?

[Bryant]

The commentary on here is just stupid.

Thanks for your contributions!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thanks for your contributions!

 

Just absolutely pathetic analysis. 

[Phil]

Just absolutely pathetic analysis.

Attempt at sarcastic humor? I honestly can't tell.

[snow_wizard]

Attempt at sarcastic humor? I honestly can't tell.

 

I'm a bit puzzled also.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No seriously reading this thread is like reading a trainwreck. Some very positive trends on the CFS as a NINA is concerned. 

[Phil]

No seriously reading this thread is like reading a trainwreck. Some very positive trends on the CFS as a NINA is concerned.

I think the CFS is more of a trainwreck than this forum could ever hope to be.

[snow_wizard]

No seriously reading this thread is like reading a trainwreck. Some very positive trends on the CFS as a NINA is concerned. 

 

I've seen a lot of posts on here saying a Nina is a likely outcome.

[Phil]

I'm a bit puzzled also.

He's a rabid CFS hugger. Apparently our analysis is "terrible" because the CFS shows Niño3.4 cooling by 0.17C over the next 8 weeks? I don't get it.