ENSO Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel like a lot of the analysis on here is extremely short sighted and overly reactionary. 

[Phil]

I feel like a lot of the analysis on here is extremely short sighted and overly reactionary.

Sort of like your short-sighted reactions to every CFS wobble?

 

Give me a break.

[snow_wizard]

I feel like a lot of the analysis on here is extremely short sighted and overly reactionary. 

 

I keep thinking there is a punch line coming here.

[Bryant]

I keep thinking there is a punch line coming here.

I'd love to hear his analysis if he thinks everyone else is so short sighted

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'd love to hear his analysis if he thinks everyone else is so short sighted

 

Weak Nina. 

[ShawniganLake]

CFS trended colder tonight. It's a lock.

[snow_wizard]

Nino 3.4 is almost down to -1.0 now.  Impressive drop.

[stuffradio]

Interesting graphic.  I wish the years used were given.  I had no idea west based was so much better for us.

It's not analog based, it's pattern based for a West or East based Nina.

[snow_wizard]

It's not analog based, it's pattern based for a West or East based Nina.

 

There were undoubtedly years that featured west based Ninas and ones that featured east based Ninas.  I just wish they had listed the years that were used to come up with the graphics.

[ShawniganLake]

There were undoubtedly years that featured west based Ninas and ones that featured east based Ninas. I just wish they had listed the years that were used to come up with the graphics.

Unfortunately they did not list the years in the write up either

[snow_wizard]

Unfortunately they did not list the years in the write up either

 

I'm intrigued enough by the results that I will probably try to figure that out myself now.

[Front Ranger]

Mentioned awhile back that this Nina was looking west-based, and that was a good sign.

[Bryant]

Cooling quickly now basin wide

 

http://i.imgur.com/50QAmxB.jpg

[ShawniganLake]

Cooling quickly now basin wide

 

http://i.imgur.com/50QAmxB.jpg

 

 

 

Western regions have really fallen off the cliff. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png

[ShawniganLake]

Latest CFS members have been holding the peak cooling into January as of late.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

[Phil]

Western regions have really fallen off the cliff.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png

Mama Nature is trollolololing us.

[ShawniganLake]

Mama Nature is trolling us.

Well then someone should put her on mod preview. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm very pleased with the latest developments.  No doubt we have a west based Nina going right now.

[Sometimesdylan]

I'm intrigued enough by the results that I will probably try to figure that out myself now.

I am intrigued as well. Let me know if you find anything. 

 

Having a hard time finding stuff to read about west vs east based Ninas.

[TT-SEA]

Nina looking much healthier...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

[Bryant]

I'm intrigued enough by the results that I will probably try to figure that out myself now.

As far as tropical forcing is concerned, having a west based Nina helps to keep the convection focused over the eastern IO/MC/western Pac region, which as a whole, is the sweet spot for us during the cold months to deliver a western through. With ENSO neutral or an East based Nina, forcing is more easily able to shift further east into the Pacific, which then shifts the mean trough east as well

[Phil]

As far as tropical forcing is concerned, having a west based Nina helps to keep the convection focused over the eastern IO/MC/western Pac region, which as a whole, is the sweet spot for us during the cold months to deliver a western through. With ENSO neutral or an East based Nina, forcing is more easily able to shift further east into the Pacific, which then shifts the mean trough east as well

Yeah, I think in a -ENSO/+QBO, between 120E and 150E is ideal.

 

Too much IO/EPAC risks a GOA trough, too much WPAC risks a big ridge.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

[snow_wizard]

Amazing how Nino 3.4 can't seem to go below -1.0.  It has gotten there a number of times and then it's like it hits a barrier.  Looks like Nino 3 just had some major cooling so that might get Nino 3.4 to go lower in the near furture.

[snow_wizard]

Well I'll be damned...The J, A, S ONI actually ended up at -0.5.  Wasn't expecting that at all.  Very possible we end up with the required 5 tri monthly -0.5 or below anomalies to call this an official Nina.

[OKwx2k4]

Well I'll be damned...The J, A, S ONI actually ended up at -0.5. Wasn't expecting that at all. Very possible we end up with the required 5 tri monthly -0.5 or below anomalies to call this an official Nina.

Wow, I'm incredibly surprised.

[Black Hole]

More of a -PDO look developing with time. Starting to see negative anomalies build along the west coast of North and South America. Should entrain into the ENSO regions eventually. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So if it is -0.9 now than this is initializing wrong?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

[Phil]

My prediction for a monthly ONI between -1.1C and -1.3C is looking somewhat better now.

[TT-SEA]

Sort of looks like the PDO is rising and ENSO is warming over the last week...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

[Deweydog]

Sort of looks like the PDO is rising and ENSO is warming over the last week...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

October is looking like it could be on a path for the PDO come in higher than September.

[Guest happ]

Sort of looks like the PDO is rising and ENSO is warming over the last week...

 

 

Can you explain what is going on along the equator? Is this a La Nina or a developing El Nino?

[snow_wizard]

Can you explain what is going on along the equator? Is this a La Nina or a developing El Nino?

 

That's only the 7 day change.  ENSO SST's are still cold.  Looking like a west based Nina is in the cards which is good news for the west.  West based Ninas bring much colder winters to the NW than east based ones.

[westcoastexpat]

That's only the 7 day change.  ENSO SST's are still cold.  Looking like a west based Nina is in the cards which is good news for the west.  West based Ninas bring much colder winters to the NW than east based ones.

 

I don't really think that's the case anymore. Waters off Peru have really been cooling, I don't think we can call this west based yet. It looks like a typical weak Nina at this stage.

 

I don't think it matters though. Typically weak Ninas are the best for the PNW and that's almost a certainty at this point.

[westcoastexpat]

NWS Winter outlook:

 

 

[westcoastexpat]

I am beginning to agree with north-central plains having a colder than normal winter, with PNW and Midwest seeing shots of arctic intrusions and mild, moist air. I'd put my money on the PNW and Midwest seeing higher than normal snowfall this season and that is where I'd expect the jet storm track to set up. I am still floored at the forecasts for New England to be in the deep freeze... pretty sure they're going to bake with the rest of the East Coast this winter.

[MossMan]

I am beginning to agree with north-central plains having a colder than normal winter, with PNW and Midwest seeing shots of arctic intrusions and mild, moist air. I'd put my money on the PNW and Midwest seeing higher than normal snowfall this season and that is where I'd expect the jet storm track to set up. I am still floored at the forecasts for New England to be in the deep freeze... pretty sure they're going to bake with the rest of the East Coast this winter.

It's about time the east coast cooks!!! Looking forward to a real winter again around here.

[Phil]

I am beginning to agree with north-central plains having a colder than normal winter, with PNW and Midwest seeing shots of arctic intrusions and mild, moist air. I'd put my money on the PNW and Midwest seeing higher than normal snowfall this season and that is where I'd expect the jet storm track to set up. I am still floored at the forecasts for New England to be in the deep freeze... pretty sure they're going to bake with the rest of the East Coast this winter.

I don't think New England is going "bake", but the SE states very well could. It really depends on the exact state of the NAM/NAO (not just the phase state).

[Phil]

It's about time the east coast cooks!!! Looking forward to a real winter again around here.

You do realize that last winter was our warmest on record, right?

 

Just saying.

[TT-SEA]

You do realize that last winter was our warmest on record, right?

 

Just saying.

 

Exactly... 24 hours of heavy snow does not change the very warm reality of last winter out there.