October 2016 Observations & Discussion

[clintbeed1993]

October is always a very fun month weather wise. We finally start getting some cool crisp fall air and less humidity.  October is also important for setting up the winter pattern.  It seems to be the case that you can learn a great deal of what to expect during the upcoming winter from looking at October.  Halloween is also exciting, atleast for me!  What can we expect from one on my favorite months of the year?  Personally I wouldn't mind seeing some accumulating snow like back in 2009.  Let's find out if mother nature has tricks or treats in store!

 

Discuss!!

 

[Tom]

October is always a very fun month weather wise. We finally start getting some cool crisp fall air and less humidity.  October is also important for setting up the winter pattern.  It seems to be the case that you can learn a great deal of what to expect during the upcoming winter from looking at October.  Halloween is also exciting, atleast for me!  What can we expect from one on my favorite months of the year?  Personally I wouldn't mind seeing some accumulating snow like back in 2009.  Let's find out if mother nature has tricks or treats in store!

 

Discuss!!

 

mn-halloween-snow-storm-main.jpg

It's never to early to be thinking of snow!  It's funny you mention 2009.  Back in the Sept Thread, I did some research and pulled up some stats on the AO/NAO during Oct of that year.  What is occurring right now in the stratosphere is rather peculiar and I think the models are starting to respond to what quite possibly could be a season with blocking.  Not saying it will be to the extreme of 2009-10, but hey, any blocking would be great to see as the new LRC pattern sets up.

 

TBH, what I've been seeing from the CFS model and where I believe the pattern is heading, I wouldn't doubt your area could see some early season snow flakes.  It's going to be exciting watching how the new pattern sets up.  Get ready for some Autumn air as we open October!

 

 

GEFS are supporting a trough to dig into the west and make its way out into the Plains sometime after the 4th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016092500/gfs-ens_T2ma_us_48.png

[OKwx2k4]

There should be some major changes coming as we go through the first and second weeks of October. When the western trough gets replaced by the ridge that will return over the far western US, there should be a large (by October standards) cold shot affect the entire central US. I love what we're seeing going into this month!

[Tom]

There should be some major changes coming as we go through the first and second weeks of October. When the western trough gets replaced by the ridge that will return over the far western US, there should be a large (by October standards) cold shot affect the entire central US. I love what we're seeing going into this month!

Watch, Nebraska will see snow out of this...12z GEFS are wildly cold in the Plains Day 10-14 as it spreads east.  There is that horseshoe block over the top...as we get closer, this is the first ensemble run showing more agreement.  Hello new LRC...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016092512/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016092512/gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png

[OKwx2k4]

I wouldn't bet against you on the snow. Lol. I can't wait til the new EURO Weeklies come out this week. They're going to look tons different than what I saw on them last week. I'll post the snow map here Tuesday morning. Last weekly ensembles already had light snow making it into central OK by November 7. CFS has had that on 2 of 4 maps for around 5 days now. I think I will get to cut several years out of my analogs package over the next 2 weeks as well.

 

Euro also traps the upcoming cool shot right over me for 3 or 4 days until it just washes out. That's another interesting sign of a blocked pattern and hope for more of it down the road.

[OKwx2k4]

Shades of 2009 in your map. Let's see if this happens.

 

 

Not saying it will but that's a pretty strong indication that it might. Especially with that much ensemble agreement.

[gabel23]

Shades of 2009 in your map. Let's see if this happens.

 

tanom2009-1017-pg.gif

 

Not saying it will but that's a pretty strong indication that it might. Especially with that much ensemble agreement.

I'll tell you what, the past couple runs of the GFS looks identical to that. Things look cold.......but it's fantasy land. We shall see, going to be fun watching the new LRC develop. 

[OKwx2k4]

I'll tell you what, the past couple runs of the GFS looks identical to that. Things look cold.......but it's fantasy land. We shall see, going to be fun watching the new LRC develop.

Euro matches although with its typical west bias. If the models keep the trough all the way through it will very likely be centered just like the map above. I'm going to try to remain objective until it happens as well though. A lot can change in 10 days.

[james1976]

mid-long range GFS looks active and chilly

[james1976]

18z GFS with a nice wound up storm around the 7th followed by cold and another system driving west-east thru the plains. Exciting pattern developing!

[OKwx2k4]

18z GFS with a nice wound up storm around the 7th followed by cold and another system driving west-east thru the plains. Exciting pattern developing!

Yeah. This is 100% different than anything we've seen even in the last 4 years. I'm excited to say the least.

[Tom]

I'm already like, "fast forward to the holidays and bring on Winter"....!!!!

 

@ Okwx, I hope this blocking pattern continues throughout October into November.  It will solidify the atmospheric response from the SST's in both the Pacific/Atlantic, along with the Strat warming.  Been way too long since we have seen anything close to this.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm already like, "fast forward to the holidays and bring on Winter"....!!!!

 

@ Okwx, I hope this blocking pattern continues throughout October into November. It will solidify the atmospheric response from the SST's in both the Pacific/Atlantic, along with the Strat warming. Been way too long since we have seen anything close to this.

Man, I hope so. ALL of the analogs that I had said it almost was 100% likely to see some blocking this late fall and winter. My own personal thoughts were neutral-negative. That is still better than +AO/NAO and praying that the EPO drives the bus. My thoughts right now still involve a lot of 'ifs' but IF this pattern verifies for the first part of October, patterning or the LRC, whichever you choose, suggests that December is a hardcore winter month this year and that cold through the core of winter is almost certain.

 

I know I probably made a bad impression here last year with some. I was new on this board, but I have never failed to capture the pattern or verify at all like I did last year. It was a first for me. I about gave up all together but I love late fall and winter too much to quit doing this.

 

15 days and we'll have so much more info but I'm super excited right now. There may be a break from mid October through the 1st week or possibly the 2nd week of November but if it happens I'm not going to worry. I pretty much expect it. I am prepared for the whole of autumn to go into the books a degree or two above average but after that I think it's going to be amazing.

[clintbeed1993]

Great to have some juicy discussion once again.  I sure miss tracking winter storms during the warmer months.  It's good to be back at it and it's always really exciting to watch the new pattern develop and all the speculation of what will transpire.  It gets us all giddy like a kid on Christmas morning!

[Jaycee]

To my recollection, October is THE month that is almost the deciding factor for the month of December. It seems like every year, the weather in October rivals that of the weather in December. 2009 is a perfect example of that. 2009-2010 was my favorite year of winter weather ever, even better than the years I had in Chicago. I hope we can see something similar, looks like the long range models are all about it so far!

[jaster220]

Great to have some juicy discussion once again.  I sure miss tracking winter storms during the warmer months.  It's good to be back at it and it's always really exciting to watch the new pattern develop and all the speculation of what will transpire.  It gets us all giddy like a kid on Christmas morning!

 

I used some of this zzzzzz stretch late last week to read the entire Superbowl Storm thread. What a storm, especially for those of us over this way when it was matured a bit better. Funny how the first page or two were people calling the storm DOA!  Between that storm and the Jan '14 PV bliz, I got 36" at my place. Anyone on here top that for those two systems? Just curious. Those both really rocked for SWMI. 

[Tom]

@ Okwx, can you check via WxBell if the 12z Euro is showing a -AO by Day 6 or 7???  Today's run is showing significant blocking over the pole.  Just curious.

 

 

Developments regarding the tropical system that may target the Caribbean Day 9-10, seem to be trending east towards the Atlantic.  This should allow a trough to dig into the central CONUS during this period.  It will be interesting to see if this holds or if it trends back the other way.

[OKwx2k4]

Hello -AO!!

 

 

-NAO and EPO also.

Just awesome.

[james1976]

Hello -AO!!

 

ecmwf_ao_bias.png

 

-NAO and EPO also.

Just awesome.

Very nice. Hello new LRC.

[james1976]

I like how it takes a dive right after the 1st.

[Tom]

EPS vs GEFS...who wins the battle with 97L???  European takes it into the N Gulf by Day, meanwhile, GFS takes it up the EC!  The difference is worlds apart...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016092700/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_namer_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016092700/gfs-ens_mslpa_namer_41.png

 

 

If the Euro is right, what if the trough that will be digging into the western CONUS by Day 10 can somehow pick up the tropical storm out of the Gulf and pull in north and become an Apps or OV runner???  That would be an awesome collaboration.

[jaster220]

EPS vs GEFS...who wins the battle with 97L???  European takes it into the N Gulf by Day, meanwhile, GFS takes it up the EC!  The difference is worlds apart...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016092700/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_namer_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016092700/gfs-ens_mslpa_namer_41.png

 

 

If the Euro is right, what if the trough that will be digging into the western CONUS by Day 10 can somehow pick up the tropical storm out of the Gulf and pull in north and become an Apps or OV runner???  That would be an awesome collaboration.

 

LOL. I had that same thought last night..what if!

[Tom]

GFS for the win regarding 97L????  12z Euro trending east with today's op run, waiting on the ensembles to come in.  Very interesting set up for the central CONUS Day 6-10.

 

Just in, and 12z EPS came in a bit farther east towards Cuba.  Yesterday, they were just offshore from the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.

 

12z Euro is very cold day 9-10.  Hope we can somehow see a piece of energy develop near CO and swing NE with a very strong push of cold air.  Check out all that blocking over the top.  Impressive.

 

Day 9...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092712/ecmwf_mslpa_namer_10.png

 

Day 10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092712/ecmwf_mslpa_namer_11.png

 

Day 10 Anomalies...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092712/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

[james1976]

Ive been noticing GFS looks cold around that same timeframe. Something is brewing.

[OKwx2k4]

Yep. Euro went to gfs. That's already different from the weeklies.

[OKwx2k4]

Too pretty not to share. Almost wall-to-wall cold front and shifting slightly east and colder with every run. Fall is definitely here.

 

[bow_echo]

models seem to have been overdoing the cold for quite some time now. we've been in a warm pattern thus far, so I'll believe it when I see it.

[OKwx2k4]

models seem to have been overdoing the cold for quite some time now. we've been in a warm pattern thus far, so I'll believe it when I see it.

Fair enough but none of the previous patterns were backed by strong support from all the relevant teleconnections. The N. Hemisphere is going to be strongly blocked for the first time in a very long time.

[Tom]

models seem to have been overdoing the cold for quite some time now. we've been in a warm pattern thus far, so I'll believe it when I see it.

Welcome aboard!  Where are you located?  The GFS in the long range has overdone the cold which is the model's known bias.  However, it has done pretty well sniffing out a pattern.  Over the last couple years, I've noticed that the GFS can do a better job in the Day 7-14 range in the Autumn months for some reason.  Once we get into Winter, the Euro tends to do better, but the Euro has problems with the EPO/PNA (I think its something to do with the warm waters hugging the NW NAMER coastline).

[OKwx2k4]

I wanted to share this from WxBell. There are lots of hobbyists, students, and pro mets out there that don't like JB, but stuff like this post is why I like him.

 

"Social Media and the Weather

 

 

I find there is alot of hand wringing out there about social media and the weather. A rough approximation is that the more the "authority" you are ( followers can be a way of determining that, or standing in academia or gvt) the more you dont like seeing information coming from so many sources. I am EXACTLY OPPOSITE OF THAT for a couple of reasons 1) I think that the more ideas there are the better. It challenges me if I see something I dont believe no matter where it comes from. I also believe people are not stupid. I had 0 followers for instance when I started, now I have alot more. My twitter site is basically what interests me at the time I want to shoot my big mouth off ala Ralph Kramden. And every now and then I go in an watch, just for fun, how many people I lose if I tweet something political. But for me, I dont care. My life is not justified by being an authority in anything since all this looking at the weather over the years have taught me that there is only one authority on the outcome of the weather. For spiritual people its the good lord. For people not inclined, its nature. For those worshipping co2 like its God, then its co2.

 

2)No one has monopoly on weather. And if you notice, we are seeing more and more the idea that open and transparent are words that mean nothing. If someone with 50 followers posts something someone doesnt like, maybe he loses people. If he posts something that turns out right, he gains people. So what? So what if he puts something on that forces and authority to look. Maybe its that are not looking and dont want people to know? Every day I rant against the GFS and how the market will turn on some crazy run. But that means I have to look and see if its right or wrong. That life

 

3) Let me ask some that read this that have busted their tails for x year, be it in academia, gvt or where I am,. what if you were someone that loved this subject when you were a kid and had the chance to compete against the big guys. Wouldnt you? And guess what.. there are 18 year olds out there any sport that can challenge guys that may be 10 years older than them. Who the heck is anyone to keep them down

 

4) But what about "responsibility" Well you do have a responsibility that is equal to where you are. And you have to act accordingly. If you have 1.000 followers and you post the day 16 GFS why should that make anyone mad? There are 7.3 billion people on the earth, and chances are not alot of those followers are going to buy it anyway. But you think anyone with a thousand followers posting some wild model run is going to force action with rational people? So I am anti Orwellian Big Brother.

 

In 1976 I was on the radio on WOND in ACY. I would go over the weather station in Atlantic City and look at maps, and make a forecast for them. I did that in college. I had many kind people that would help me, including one who is still as dear to me today that worked there as anyone I have ever met in the field. And I am sure I caused some aggravation and alot of it especially before Belle as I was out on Friday talking hurricane threat and it was nowhere in the forecast at that time. And it was a double whammy , cause they all knew my dad, so they started having to field questions on something not in their forecast. ( side note I just had the same thing here. My wife works for PSU wrestling I am a volunteer coach for the NLWC. Garrett is not happy about our football team and says so. But we know people in football,. I am not saying coaches are not beyond criticism but is Garrett going to be a football coach some day? I doubt that, so he has a responsibility to the wrestling staff given his mom works for them and all the coaches know each other, to keep it down IMO. But now I know how my dad must have felt, difference is anyone that knew me knew where I was going) But they understood, even if some did not like me, what I was about. And in the end were great to me. They probably could have shut me down, but they did not. Far be it from me now to advocate anything that would not allow someone with passion and drive in our field to take his shot

 

In short, if someone is try to build their following and has very few, its not like its shouting fire in a crowded theater. There is virtually no one in the theater, but you can be sure if he turned out right, whoever was in there would thank him or her

 

Besides if they see something I dont, it can help me."

 

Someone can delete it if they want I thought it was a good read to start the day.

[james1976]

Local mets keep upping temps for next week. Talking upper 70s now. Prolly end up hitting 80 again. Whens it gonna end? Lol

[OKwx2k4]

A -3 AO in October is literally always a good sign for the future. Loving the trend.

 

[Tom]

Local mets keep upping temps for next week. Talking upper 70s now. Prolly end up hitting 80 again. Whens it gonna end? Lol

Historically speaking, you are bound to get one or two more days in the 80's before it's shut off.  If you saw a streak of them, then I'd be worried!  Ha 

 

BTW, 00z Euro has another cut-off storm system that develops just east of Denver and spins up towards the Dakotas.  Like the pattern we are seeing with today's ULL feature, this will be another tough system to track as blocking takes hold once again.

 

 

 

Day 7...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092800/ecmwf_mslpa_us_8.png

 

 

Day 8...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092800/ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png

[Tom]

Taking a look at GEFS/EPS, both park a strong Aleutian Low Day 7-10, which pump the ridge over the Arctic.  If this is going to be the new LRC theme, it'll be hard not to have high latitude block.

 

CFSv2 indicates a strong Aleutian Low for the month of October.  Kinda surprised the U.S. has so much ridging.  Let's see what it does towards the end of this month.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20160928.201610.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Taking a look at GEFS/EPS, both park a strong Aleutian Low Day 7-10, which pump the ridge over the Arctic. If this is going to be the new LRC theme, it'll be hard not to have high latitude block.

 

CFSv2 indicates a strong Aleutian Low for the month of October. Kinda surprised the U.S. has so much ridging. Let's see what it does towards the end of this month.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20160928.201610.gif

Arctic HP maybe? Those are strange maps.

[OKwx2k4]

Sea ice has already went back over 5m km^2. That's a pretty incredible ice explosion.

[Tom]

@ Okwx/Jaster, what if???

 

Pan Handle Hook + Major Hurricane = Octo-bomb somewhere in the East???  That would be fun to see.

 

Day 8...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092812/gfs_mslpa_us_33.png

 

Day 9...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092812/gfs_mslpa_us_38.png

[jaster220]

@ Okwx/Jaster, what if???

 

Pan Handle Hook + Major Hurricane = Octo-bomb somewhere in the East???  That would be fun to see.

 

Day 8...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092812/gfs_mslpa_us_33.png

 

Day 9...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092812/gfs_mslpa_us_38.png

 

Those two SLP systems moving north together in tandem should synergize the effects even if they don't merge. Would certainly be interesting in winter, especially if they came together a bit more into a double-barreled low. 

 

Edit: I will add that I really prefer November bombs to October. Especially on the EC, they portend a poor winter following. Look at Sandy in 2011 for latest example. I will say that the 2010 Octo-bomb was followed by GHD-1 for those who were clocked by that monster, it could be flipped I suppose   

[OKwx2k4]

I would say wow, Tom. That would be crazy. I was wondering if that would happen when I saw the piece of energy left behind the other day. If that low follows the red River by verification time then I will be a heck of a lot more excited for winter. :-) Couldn't get a real Arklatex low last year at all so maybe this is the year.

[Niko]

Those two SLP systems moving north together in tandem should synergize the effects even if they don't merge. Would certainly be interesting in winter, especially if they came together a bit more into a double-barreled low. 

 

Edit: I will add that I really prefer November bombs to October. Especially on the EC, they portend a poor winter following. Look at Sandy in 2011 for latest example. I will say that the 2010 Octo-bomb was followed by GHD-1 for those who were clocked by that monster, it could be flipped I suppose   

That looks scary!