October 2016 Observations & Discussion

[james1976]

Yeah i noticed the GFS was showing a few systems later in the month. I was hoping other models were showing something similar.

[OKwx2k4]

Was noticing last night that a huge portion of my October high temperature records came from either 1963 or 1979. Wonder if the folloing winters were good for anyone.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro sticks to its guns and sends the EPO into negative territory on the 23rd. More of a blip than a flip but in 2 weeks from then I think it will go deep negative.

[Niko]

Another day of summer warmth. Actually felt very nice being outside, although, the humidity was noticeable.

[Niko]

Tbh, I don't mind having this type of weather until mid November, or right b4 Thanksgiving and then, have all hell break loose with cold and snow right through the winter months.

[Tom]

The Cub's wake up the bats and come out of hibernation!  Nice to see a team win.

 

In other news, the JMA weeklies have come in and for Week 1 suggesting a trough to build on both U.S. coasts which will sandwich a ridge into the central CONUS.  By Week 2, a -AO/NAO develop which connects from central Canada, across Greenland into Scandinavia.  The trough off the west coast seems to be retrograding farther west off the coast, instead of hugging the coastline near British Columbia, and quite possibly becoming a semi-permanent feature near the Aleutians.  We need to keep an eye on this positioning as we move forward into November.  

 

By week 3, what I believe might happen is we could see a jet start to cut underneath and begin targeting California.  We should start seeing troughs targeting farther south along the west coast starting next week, but if the JMA is right, this may become a semi-permanent pattern as we head into November.  The ridging along western CA poking up over the Pole suggests the jet to cut underneath.  Furthermore, a secondary storm track may evolve up the OV.  It's too far out for the model to pin this down though.

 

Looking at the GEFS, they somewhat agree to the JMA for both Week 1 & 2.

[james1976]

Actually feels like fall this morning. 40 and overcast. Predicting 55 for a high which is 5 below normal.

[Niko]

Cloudy, dreary, and chilly with a current reading of 51F. More like October standards. My highs on Saturday may not get outta the 40's for highs. Now, that is some chilly air to speak of.  

[Tom]

Frost Advisories have been issued for S Wisco...I think they will be expanded into E IA and parts of N IL (if cloud cover is persistent in NE IL from lake effect, it will negate temps from dropping off).

 

Secondary cold front making its way through the area.  Temps are starting to drop off and winds are turning out of the NNE.  This system tracking up the OV will be an interesting one when it cycles back again in early December.

 

High Rez models are picking up on a good Lake Effect Rain set up into N IN later tonight into tomorrow.

[Tom]

LOT has some strong wording for the Lake Effect set up...

 

Model forecast soundings continue to depict fairly impressive
thermodynamic profiles over the south end of the lake, with lake
surface to 850 mb delta-T values approaching 18C by early Friday,
and several hundred J/kg of lake-induced SBCAPE. Given this
environment, isolated thunder and isolated waterspouts are
possible, with the greatest convergence focused just east of Gary
across northern Lake and Porter counties through Friday morning.

[Tom]

When we saw the beginning developments of the new 2016-17 LRC in the early part of October, a piece of the PV was sent into N CA/Hudson Bay and was a result of a weak PV this season.  Looking forward, I'm seeing the models weaken the PV once again and possibly split it in the Week 2 period.

 

The location of the PV has taken up residence near the Pole...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z10_nh_f00.png

 

 

Due to recent warming in the strat and forecasted farther poleward warming in the near future, another squeeze play will result in weakening of the PV.  I recall, that last year at this time, the PV was in record strong territory and never looked back until very late in the season around February.  This year, we have nearly the opposite effect and seeing different results.

 

Moving forward, both GFS/EURO are seeing the result of rising temps in the Strato region over Siberia/Russia resulting in stressing of the PV.  By Day 10, we are seeing a lobe trying to make head way into N CA again.

 

10mb...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z10_nh_f240.png

 

30mb...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z30_nh_f240.png

 

 

It'll be interesting to see how November opens up as we see another realignment of the PV early on in the season.

[james1976]

[Niko]

Still raining IMBY. My radar is socked in with precipitation. If only this was winter.....

[james1976]

GFS trying to spin up a Great Lakes storm on Halloween. 850s look maybe cold enough for snow in the upper Lakes area.

[james1976]

Actually looks more like a potent clipper.

[Tom]

There is some ensembles support for a GL system over Halloween weekend.  Both GFS/EURO are showing something out of the central Plains into the the Lakes region.  Still way out there but for some fun, I'll post the 18z GFS run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_35.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102018/gfs_asnow_ncus_40.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102018/gfs_T2m_ncus_40.png

 

It's been over doing the intensity of systems in the Day 5-10 range, but today's 12z EPS run had a similar track around the same time frame.

[james1976]

Was literally just coming here to post about this model run. Even better than 12z. Yup way out there but something to watch. Also, there is a system mid next week that fires up over IA. Looks to be rain but nonetheless it looks to get active.

[Tom]

Temps are trending cooler next week around the region as a blocked up pattern sets up.  All the models have an interesting system coming out of the Rockies towards the Lakes next Wed/Thu.  This one came out of no where, although, the GFS sniffed it out a couple days ago.  So far this early Autumn season, there have been many systems taking similar tracks and spinning up as they track from the Rockies/Plains/Lakes.

[Niko]

Currently @ a chilly 47F with a WCF of 35F. Cloudy skies. Feels and looks like November!

[Niko]

All the rain I had yesterday would have been equivalent to over a foot of snow, had it been winter. Great set-up and tons of moisture feeding into my area. It rained non-stop for over 24 hours, 26 or 27 or so hours to be exact.

[westMJim]

Here in GRR (and probably other locations as well) in the last year we only have had one month (April) that has been below average and at this time it looks like October has a good shot of being above average (right now the mean here in GRR is 58.8 and that is +5.8) For anyone looking for “analog” years here at GRR one year that come close to this in in 1921. So based on just the mean temperature of the months leading up to the winter one analog year to look at would the winter of 1921/22. While not as close another year to look at would be the winter of 2007/08.  Based on just the warmest October’s (not sure if this October will fall into that yet or not) but here is a list of the warmest October’s here in GRR

1900….59.9°, 1920….58.9°, 1947….58.8°, 1963….58.8°, 1971….58.3°, 2007….58.1° as already stated so far this October 58.8°

Now the big question is when will the string come to a end? Of course we are now overdue for a few or more below average months will they come this winter? Next spring or next summer?

At this time I am going with a average winter temperature wise (turning more below average deeper into winter think February in to April, Yes April I am sorry to say) as for snow fall my guess is between 55 and 95” more toward the lake and less toward Lansing.  With 78” being a good guess for the Grand Rapids metro area. But as always this is subject to change.

[jaster220]

Boy, were the winds cranking last night!  It was hard to fall asleep with the trees roaring and the temps so warm at night.  Here are some peak wind gusts:

 

 

The storm that targeted the upper Midwest will drag a boundary and allow a storm to develop and track near the Lakes this week.  Models are starting to spin up a weak storm near the OK region and track up through the S Midwest/Lakes during Wed/Thu period.  It'll eventually spin up into big storm over NE which will buckle the jet and block up the pattern later this week into the weekend.

 

We broke a record last night:

 

(..see below comments)

 

Was noticing last night that a huge portion of my October high temperature records came from either 1963 or 1979. Wonder if the following winters were good for anyone.

 

NO!  '79/80 was cold enough but dry as h*ll ofc you might expect after 3 record winters you'd be in for a dud. 

 

Frost Advisories have been issued for S Wisco...I think they will be expanded into E IA and parts of N IL (if cloud cover is persistent in NE IL from lake effect, it will negate temps from dropping off).

 

Secondary cold front making its way through the area.  Temps are starting to drop off and winds are turning out of the NNE.  This system tracking up the OV will be an interesting one when it cycles back again in early December.

 

High Rez models are picking up on a good Lake Effect Rain set up into N IN later tonight into tomorrow.

Still raining IMBY. My radar is socked in with precipitation. If only this was winter.....

All the rain I had yesterday would have been equivalent to over a foot of snow, had it been winter. Great set-up and tons of moisture feeding into my area. It rained non-stop for over 24 hours, 26 or 27 or so hours to be exact.

 

This is what I'm afraid of tbh with the winter pattern - a great set-up that just misses me to the east. Not that I would hold it against Niko or anyone in SEMI (my home and native land) if this happens this upcoming winter but man it'd be painful to watch!    (had just enough @ KRMY to be a drawn-out 2-4" event in mby)

 

 

[Niko]

(..see below comments)

 

 

NO!  '79/80 was cold enough but dry as h*ll ofc you might expect after 3 record winters you'd be in for a dud. 

 

 

This is what I'm afraid of tbh with the winter pattern - a great set-up that just misses me to the east. Not that I would hold it against Niko or anyone in SEMI (my home and native land) if this happens this upcoming winter but man it'd be painful to watch!    (had just enough @ KRMY to be a drawn-out 2-4" event in mby)

 

20161021_usa_ICast.gif

FWIW: You get at least some more embedded lake effect snow that tend to hold more ,whereas, by the time they get to me, they kinda dry out.

 

Anyway, you gotta like that low placement above. Cannot be in a better place for me to get under some really heavy heavy snow.

[Tom]

Tonight's forecast is for temps to drop into the mid 30's which would be the lowest temp of the season, even possibly up into the metro.  The furnace has been going on from time to time while watching some Hockey, Gold Rush and Alaska the Last Frontier episodes I DVR'd.  In anticipation of tracking our first snow storm, next week's system is intriguing because it's been showing up on all the models and would be a nice "share the wealth" for this sub forum...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102118/gfs_apcpn_ncus_24.png

[Tom]

12z NAM starting to get in range for next weeks Tue-Thu rain maker.  Reminds of a hybrid CO Low feature with a lot of frontogenesis lift potential that could result in a heavy rain event for the northern sub forum.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016102212/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_52.png

[Tom]

Let's do a test case between the GFS/EURO inside the 4/5 day period for next weeks storm.  12z Euro is a tad north of the GFS and takes the SLP through C IA/S WI.  12z GFS takes it through C IA/N IL and has the heaviest rain band through N IA & S/C WI...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102212/gfs_apcpn_ncus_25.png

 

 

This time of year its fun trying to figure out which model is on top of it's game.  We will have plenty more systems down the road so why not start now???

 

 

12z GEFS keeping the PV split through the Week 2 period...interesting...moreso, I'm seeing a small, yet subtle difference where the model places the Aleutain Low in the extended.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102212/gfs-ens_Tz10Mean_nhem_10.png

 

 

 

By Day 11-15, 12z GEFS starts retrograding the trough off the western N.A. coastline towards the Aleutians.  If the seasonal transition of the jet is to take place during this period, the flip may start showing up a little earlier than previously thought.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102212/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102212/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

 

 

 

 

CFSv2 weeklies suggest it retrograding even farther west by Week 3 out towards the Bearing Sea!  This is a stormy look with a jet cutting underneath the ridging in Canada.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016102206/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_5.png

[OKwx2k4]

I'll take map #3 Tom. That's some pretty good model agreement from so far away. Same look as Euro out of the CFS. I'd actually buy it right now.

[Tom]

I'll take map #3 Tom. That's some pretty good model agreement from so far away. Same look as Euro out of the CFS. I'd actually buy it right now.

I borrowed these maps from a met...Euro Week 4 torches AK/NAMER and signals a pocket of cooler/normal temps (arguably will end up favoring below normal temps throughout) as well as a very wet signal from the Rockies/Plains/Lakes!  Looks almost like a SW Flow out of the desert regions.

[james1976]

Next weeks system will hopefully be a fun one in early Dec

[james1976]

Hendricks is throwing down. My God. Dodgers dont have a chance.

Great bonfire weather tonight as well!

[westMJim]

It sure is a nice and sunny day out there today!  There are lots of leaves on the trees and the color is now very good.  Good day to take a drive and look at the color.   While the airport stopped at 37° this morning I had a low in my back yard (a low cold spot) of 32° and in my “warmer” spot the low was 36° and yes there was frost here once again.  But no freeze at GRR nor has there been one at my “warmer” location.  That 32 in my back yard is the first 32 there this fall. Note the average first 32° reading in the fall for GRR is around October 10^th so we are running later then average on that.

[Tom]

What a night!  Go Cub's Go!  Looking forward to the World Series this week.  Thankfully, the weather is looking dry for Games 1-5 in both Cleveland and Chicago, although, it may be a bit dang chilly next weekend around here.  I think the players can handle temps in the 40's!

 

Speaking of colors, the majority of the Lakes region is reaching their peak or past peak...

 

 

 

 

Anyone want to dish out $1,900 for Standing Room only tickets for Game 3???

 

http://wgntv.com/2016/10/23/ticket-sales-for-world-series-game-3-start-at-nearly-2k/

 

 

Models are catching onto to a strong -NAO/-AO signal during the 1st week of November along with a +PNA.  Here comes the first taste of the flip???

CFSv2 indicating an active pattern from the Rockies and points east Week 3 & 4...that is a beautiful sight to see...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016102300/cfs-avg_mslpaMean_namer_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016102300/cfs-avg_mslpaMean_namer_5.png

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Some indication from the CFSv2 that the ridge may be pulled farther NW over AK/NW NAME, similar to what the Euro Weeklies Week 4 looked like.  Here is the latest 700mb pattern...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20161023.201611.gif

 

 

What's interesting in the N PAC waters, both the JMA and CFSv2 are showing a very cold tongue coming off the East Asian coast all the way south of the Aleutians Week 3 & 4.  Siberian air gets entrenched into the pattern and I believe we will see the Aleutian Low cause feedback and become very strong in November.  Both models are pushing the warm pocket of waters into the GOA.  You can bet this will pump the Alaskan ridge.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201610.D1912_gls.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20161023.201611.gif

[Tom]

12z Euro try to spin up another weak CO Low Day 6/7 that tracks towards the lower lakes...let's see if the GFS follows suit or if this is a fluke run...btw, both EURO/GFS tank the NAO next week as a massive Greenland Block unfolds when the PV splits and heads towards Hudson Bay.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016102312/ecmwf_mslpa_us_7.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016102312/ecmwf_mslpa_us_8.png

[OKwx2k4]

I came on to post something similar. I think it will verify pretty close to that. Now that hurricane season has died mostly. Models should have much better long range ability.

 

Off topic but I hope the Cubs win the World Series. The world may explode if Cleveland sports teams win 2 titles in one year. Lol

[Tom]

First snowflakes near the Lakes this week???  Both GFS/NAM showing some snow, doubt it accumulates, but snow falling from the sky in MI is possible.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016102412/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102406/gfs_asnow_ncus_16.png

[westMJim]

First snowflakes near the Lakes this week???  Both GFS/NAM showing some snow, doubt it accumulates, but snow falling from the sky in MI is possible.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016102412/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102406/gfs_asnow_ncus_16.png

It is very possible to see some snow in the interior areas of norther Michigan.  That is not all that unusual for October. Here in GRR we have had trace amounts of snow for the last 5 years and 8 of the last 10 years.  In fact in October of 2006 there was 2" on October 12th that year. 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a great late October day!   There was a lot of sunshine warm temperatures (68° here at Grand Rapids) and good color around the area. I see the NWS has stopped issuing their frost/freeze warnings because the growing season is over.  Well in my area there are still some people that have tomato plants still growing and while I took my plants out (the tomatoes were gone and too late for more to ripen) I still do have many tender flowers growing in the yard. So even though the area still has not had a freeze yet I can see where the NWS is coming from as after all its late October and there should have been a killing frost by now.  I am sure we will have one in the next one to two weeks.

[Niko]

[Niko]

That midweek rain is looking quite nasty in my forecast this Wednesday. Highs in the mid 40's with Rain. Yikes!