richard mann Posted May 19, 2014 Report Share Posted May 19, 2014 (.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/510-pacnw-may-2014-discussion/?p=27609 -(post no. 560) Well this can't be good, ... possible 1997 type El Nino brewing in the Pacific http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/ Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted May 19, 2014 Report Share Posted May 19, 2014 - http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/elnino/index.cfm?FuseAction=ShowNews&NewsID=246http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/elnino/ ( .. scroll down.)http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/ Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 26, 2014 Report Share Posted May 26, 2014 The death of El Nino? I would have to call this MJO forecast unprecedented during a period where a Nino is trying to develop. It couldn't be a much more Ninaish forecast. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 No strengthening ... this week ..... .. 5°S—5°N, 850mb Zonal Wind / Wind Anomalies, wise, leastwise. — Main Sea-Surface Temperatures / Temp. Anomalies wise, main focus region, not so much the case. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.5.29.2014.gifhttp://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html Then, there's that .. Cat. 3 (maybe Cat. 4.), Pacific sector "hurricane" having developed, same general area. — Earliest on record. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/534-the-tropics-early-pacific-disturbance/ Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted June 2, 2014 Report Share Posted June 2, 2014 (.. cross reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/177-california-weather-climate/?p=28310 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted June 2, 2014 Report Share Posted June 2, 2014 Big big problems for this possible El Nino right now. It would take some kind of a miracle for us to have anything beyond a weak Nino by winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted June 2, 2014 Report Share Posted June 2, 2014 Big big problems for this possible El Nino right now. It would take some kind of a miracle for us to have anything beyond a weak Nino by winter. .. Not much here Jim. Had you had something more specific in mind. ? Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2014 OHC is about to dip negative as well.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted July 1, 2014 Report Share Posted July 1, 2014 -With prefacing this following below with saying that my intention here with what I've pointed to not having been meant to either whether discount or support, whatever's been said, by whomever, regarding whether the similarity, or otherwise looked at, potential, one set compared to the other, where looking at this current Nino development set beside that of the Nino of 1997, … The main patten configuration—or, pattering, warmer to colder areas anomalous—where looking at the current general picture .. along side that having been in effect for near to this same date back in 1997, shows some basic both similarities, together with also, differences. — The differences more specific, that I'm noting, are mainly through S. hem., together with where also looking at the Western equatorial, or even more tropical, Pacific. — This with looking at the S. hem. more specifically, more in particularly, a fairly strong distinction—generally cooler temperatures, compared to quite a bit cooler—between the two years, where looking at the Tropical Atlantic South. Mainly more eastward. http://www.proxigee.com/970628_ssta_t-35-41d.gif (Click for main fuller-size image set.) Of important note here, … I can't find the specific reference. But right around the time that main formatting of these images was put into effect, there had been a note about the sensors used earlier to gather these readings, had been off significantly. Warmer with the earlier graphic I think but can't remember, so I can't be sure. Perhaps someone else know the what adjustment had been more in fact. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted July 12, 2014 Report Share Posted July 12, 2014 So much for SUPER NINO. .. Some basic perspective where considering the question either way here following accessible Chris. General reference. — "Jason 2's" graphics bi-monthly, to the present. And a video generated by NASA back in May when the speculation had been high where considering the potential for a more dynamic Nino. https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/ScienceCasts: El Niño - Is 2014 the New 1997 ? These focuses together with more generally, the CPC's main more current status discussion and synopsis. With also a fairly well done and informative run-down, also from the CPC, as to what's going on looked at more at this point, more academically. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html @ http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/en-so Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 1, 2014 Report Share Posted August 1, 2014 - http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.7.31.2014.gif Granted certainly, SSTs—along with temps more sub-surface—have trended downward through and where looking at all of the different main ENSO more regional "indexes", since and where comparing them with the way they had been more back in later April and into May. Even substantially where looking at some. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.5.8.2014.gif But with this, and where looking more specifically at SST anomalies, also certainly, the broader Eastern Pacific where looked at North to South, has remained significantly warm set with this idea. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 4, 2014 Report Share Posted August 4, 2014 Remember those plunging SSTs and the anomalously strong high pressure of the coast in June? I think I mentioned at the time that it would likely be temporary based on history. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.4.2014.gif Also notice .. pockets of colder than normal SSTs in the Nino regions. Neutral is much better overall. My view is Tim, that these pockets of colder water are indicative of that having circulated up from the South. Where it's of course the dead of winter. And so, with this, there certainly being some room for their slacking back some as time moves forward. @ Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 6, 2014 Report Share Posted August 6, 2014 -In line with what I've said above more recently regarding the basic theme here—either whether or both more generally or in response more to something someone else has, ... — posts nos. 64, 66, and 69 here just above. And more chiefly where considering colder sea-surfure current waters that I've pointed with having suggested their level of influence on the current general "complexion" of and where considering ENSO's broader potential at this point, ... .. Set beside the more typically referred to SST anomalies, there's (there are.) also the main SSTs. — For general reference sake, animated where looking back over the past 6 months or so, accessible here below, ... http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/50km_night/anim.html .. and able to be compared with where set beside, the animation similar focusing on SSTAs that I've posted a link to above within my post, no. 66. — Basically, this animation works perhaps a bit better to show this current's, more current influence. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 6, 2014 Report Share Posted August 6, 2014 also the atmosphere is starting to cooperate so the weak el nino might happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 7, 2014 Atmosphere cooperating with the Niño it forced in the first place? Say it ain't so? The Niño state is the atmospheric state..problem is there is intra-seasonal variability involved..essentially subharmonics that tune according to both external forcings and internal resonance(s). Looking at the reason for the Niño state and the subharmonics (that will either amplify or dampen it) usually gives a ballpark estimate of systematic amplitude Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 7, 2014 Report Share Posted August 7, 2014 There will be some warming over the next few months but not enough for a weak El Niño.(source accuweatherfourms) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted August 8, 2014 Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 There is no longer a chance for an El Niño developing this summer. Not only did they delay their forecast El Niño to a period where their forecasting ability is almost zero, the chances where reduced 15 percent. Please do not forget the criterion for an El Niño which I have already posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2014 Que the jaws music: http://catchmypicture.com/f/NU29P2/640.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrite Posted August 14, 2014 Report Share Posted August 14, 2014 Hmm... So Phil, are you saying that this looks like Nino precursor to you? Could it just be a more run of the mill Kelvin wave signature? I'm trying to convince myself, but remaining skeptical still about the odds of a verifiable Nino over the next 6 months. The SSTs and heat contents don't appear to me to be coming together. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2014 The subsurface SSTs do not force the Niño..they're a result of downwelling caused by the Niño circulation. Subsurface waters in the tropical waters are almost always colder than the SSTs..those anomaly graphics trick a lot of people who fail to realize that they're not representing the actual water temperatures Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 14, 2014 Report Share Posted August 14, 2014 Subsurface waters in the tropical waters are almost always colder than the SSTs..those anomaly graphics trick a lot of people who fail to realize that they're not representing the actual water temperatures. Hence the "Que the jaws music", preface to what you've posted above then, eay professor. ... (?) "Niño circulation" "=" what, then. ?, per your definition. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2014 Hence the "Que the jaws music", preface to what you've posted above then, eay professor. ... (?) "Niño circulation" "=" what, then. ?, per your definition. "representing" ? .. (representative.), indicative, more .. presumably.The graphics depict a Kelvin Wave crossing the Pacific...leads to downwelling & an eastward propagation of the WPAC warm pool...it is evidence that the waters are responding to the earlier WWB activity Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 14, 2014 Report Share Posted August 14, 2014 -.. this you own definition then. ? Or one attached to the idea by climatologists . ? Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2014 -.. this you own definition then. ? Or one attached to the idea by climatologists . ?The latter. The signatures associated with KW activity are known to almost every atmospheric scientist...this is discussed throughout the literature. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 15, 2014 Report Share Posted August 15, 2014 ... the signatures associated with K[elvin]]W[ave] activity are known to almost every atmospheric scientist...this is discussed throughout the literature.The subsurface SSTs do not force the Niño..they're a result of downwelling ... [associated with the current Kelvin Wave activity]. .... then. Correct. (?) @ @ — "Nino circulation", being a much boarder idea, and in fact involving much more than this activity looked at more in particularly alone. (.. used, nowhere .. that I've seen. / The latter. ) And, to what "[the] literature" are you referring.? Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 15, 2014 Report Share Posted August 15, 2014 Mike Ventrice on kelvin waves: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2635 .. Appreciate the link Chris. Very concise and informative. Hopefully, if Derrick ("Black Hole") gets his "Meteorology 101" thread started up again, he can include this. — Of course a bit more climatological. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 15, 2014 .... then. Correct. (?) @ @ — "Nino circulation", being a much boarder idea, and in fact involving much more than this activity looked at more in particularly alone. (.. used, nowhere .. that I've seen. / The latter. ) And, to what "[the] literature" are you referring.?Yes. I'm referencing the broad consensus in the peer-reviewed literature regarding the nature of oceanic kelvin waves. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 15, 2014 Report Share Posted August 15, 2014 .. Great. (As in, "wonderful".) This means that, .. if, with the idea that where considering something that I'd identified instead as being what you'd meant to suggest; that idea's, being well appreciated to be the case, by peers of those who know better. .. "Nino circulation", meaning the "activity" of "Kevin Waves". — Sorta. Totally clear. (Only too glad, just to have been part of the "process".) Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 15, 2014 Report Share Posted August 15, 2014 -"Cool" at this point, out at "fisherman's" "point". (... where looking at the Galapagos Islands.) http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.14.2014.gif .. If with the "sea-surface" "current" "circulation" moving up from the south along the greater South American coast, toward "it"—fairly cold to this point—appearing to be jostling somewhat.http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.htmlhttp://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/50km_night/anim.html — Still winter "down south", of course. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted August 24, 2014 Report Share Posted August 24, 2014 Looks like a good deal of strengthening will be occurring in the near future. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 26, 2014 Report Share Posted August 26, 2014 -Late August / their "February" .. south of the equator, the main question still of course at this point more basic with following the main more anomalistic SSTs returns generated, … Just what will those fisherman from Ecuador and Peru actually see, nearer to Christmastime / their later "June", main "current" circulation wise, just off shore of where they are. ? — At this point, very cold water is still pervading more close in, near to and surrounding the Galapagos Islands, nearer the equator. Of course lending to good to excellent fishing, with its being the most conducive and best able to support a more abundance source of food for fish (Along with of course, all sea-life together with what feeds on it.). But will the current having delivered this colder water up from the South dwindle off, more gradually, or more abruptly, with the on set up the warmer season south of the equator. ? http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.25.2014.gifhttp://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html — .. Another, perspective. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/602-pacific-nw-august-2014-discussion/?p=31696 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted August 30, 2014 Report Share Posted August 30, 2014 So where are we at with the Nino, and where should we be by November? ... Plenty of tropical moisture generation, and so precip. for the West, is probably a pretty safe bet. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted September 6, 2014 Report Share Posted September 6, 2014 Phil - wanted to see if you could share any ideas on where with are with the MJO and AAM. Looks to me like we are coming up on a period where the MJO is going to be more favorable for westerly anomalies (velocity potential / OLR)....but I'm not sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted September 6, 2014 Report Share Posted September 6, 2014 (.. cross reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/580-preliminary-discussion-for-upcoming-2014-15-winter-season/?p=32348 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted September 15, 2014 Report Share Posted September 15, 2014 (.. cross-reference.) Analog points more elemental, this point where compared with 1976-77. More over-all pattern than ENSO alone. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/626-long-range-discussion-for-autumn-and-winter/?p=33096http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/626-long-range-discussion-for-autumn-and-winter/?p=33100 (The post following.) Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2014 You mean unfavorable? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted September 18, 2014 Report Share Posted September 18, 2014 -[Do] You. ? Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted September 28, 2014 Report Share Posted September 28, 2014 SOI continues to be sustained in El Nino values, only recently sustained below the -8 threshold. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted September 30, 2014 Report Share Posted September 30, 2014 -Putting aside the idea of what will or might actually result where looking ahead main "ENSO" wise, … With looking at the main anomalies SST focused through the Pacific at this point, it looks like the better question might be will the whole of the Pacific, both North and South of the equator east and west, end up showing above normal readings. …. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.9.29.2014.gif Generally related. - http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/622-september-2014-in-the-pacnw-observations-and-more/?p=33828 @ Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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