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Hopefully, w/ this 2nd year El Nino, we'll be able to eradicate the current -EPO/+TNH dominated configuration & the Hudson Bay-Greenland Vortex because it is one of (if not the) primary reason why

If nothing else, it will be interesting to see what effect this MJO cycle has on the current global pattern.

Yeah, I've certainly noticed, there have also been substantial low frequency changes in the EP zonal SST gradient that are contributing... The overall forcing & SST distribution in this NINO is ce

Posted Images

No strengthening ... this week .....

 

.. 5°S5°N, 850mb Zonal Wind / Wind Anomalies, wise, leastwise. 

 

Main Sea-Surface Temperatures / Temp. Anomalies wise, main focus region, not so much the case. 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.5.29.2014.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html

 

Then, there's that .. Cat. 3 (maybe Cat. 4.), Pacific sector "hurricane" having developed, same general area. 

 

Earliest on record.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/534-the-tropics-early-pacific-disturbance/

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Big big problems for this possible El Nino right now. It would take some kind of a miracle for us to have anything beyond a weak Nino by winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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There's another KW in the WPAC, but yes I'll agree that a super-niño was never on the table. An El Niño of some sort is likely though, simply based on the Solar-QBO-in internal-resonance harmonics.

...

A weak or moderate El Niño is most likely, IMO. Kind of hard to deny it given the steady eastward migration of the Walker Cell since 2012. This was a long time in the making

 

 

Phil, Do you have a link that you use for monitoring Walker Cell migration?

 

http://s28.postimg.org/4lizkznvx/walker.jpg

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With prefacing this following below with saying that my intention here with what I've pointed to not having been meant to either whether discount or support, whatever's been said, by whomever, regarding whether the similarity, or otherwise looked at, potential, one set compared to the other, where looking at this current Nino development set beside that of the Nino of 1997, … 
 
The main patten configurationor, pattering, warmer to colder areas anomalouswhere looking at the current general picture .. along side that having been in effect for near to this same date back in 1997, shows some basic both similarities, together with also, differences.
 
The differences more specific, that I'm noting, are mainly through S. hem., together with where also looking at the Western equatorial, or even more tropical, Pacific. 
 
This with looking at the S. hem. more specifically, more in particularly, a fairly strong distinctiongenerally cooler temperatures, compared to quite a bit coolerbetween the two years, where looking at the Tropical Atlantic South. Mainly more eastward. 
 
http://www.proxigee.com/970628_ssta_t-35-41d.gif
 (Click for main fuller-size image set.)
 
Of important note here, … 
 
I can't find the specific reference. But right around the time that main formatting of these images was put into effect, there had been a note about the sensors used earlier to gather these readings, had been off significantly. Warmer with the earlier graphic I think but can't remember, so I can't be sure. Perhaps someone else know the what adjustment had been more in fact. 

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So much for SUPER NINO.

 

.. Some basic perspective where considering the question either way here following accessible Chris.

 

 General reference. 

 

 "Jason 2's" graphics bi-monthly, to the present. And a video generated by NASA back in May when the speculation had been high where considering the potential for a more dynamic Nino.

 

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/

ScienceCasts: El Niño - Is 2014 the New 1997 ?

 

These focuses together with more generally, the CPC's main more current status discussion and synopsis. With also a fairly well done and informative run-down, also from the CPC, as to what's going on looked at more at this point, more academically.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

@ http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/en-so

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  • 3 weeks later...

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Granted certainly, SSTsalong with temps more sub-surfacehave trended downward through and where looking at all of the different main ENSO more regional "indexes", since and where comparing them with the way they had been more back in later April and into May. Even substantially where looking at some. 


 


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.5.8.2014.gif


 


But with this, and where looking more specifically at SST anomalies, also certainly, the broader Eastern Pacific where looked at North to South, has remained significantly warm set with this idea. 


 


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html


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Remember those plunging SSTs and the anomalously strong high pressure of the coast in June?   I think I mentioned at the time that it would likely be temporary based on history.   :)      

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.4.2014.gif

 

 

Also notice .. pockets of colder than normal SSTs in the Nino regions. Neutral is much better overall.

 

My view is Tim, that these pockets of colder water are indicative of that having circulated up from the South. Where it's of course the dead of winter. And so, with this, there certainly being some room for their slacking back some as time moves forward.  @

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In line with what I've said above more recently regarding the basic theme hereeither whether or both more generally or in response more to something someone else has, ...
 
posts nos. 64, 66, and 69 here just above.
 
And more chiefly where considering colder sea-surfure current waters that I've pointed with having suggested their level of influence on the current general "complexion" of and where considering ENSO's broader potential at this point, ...
 
.. Set beside the more typically referred to SST anomalies, there's (there are.) also the main SSTs.
 
For general reference sake, animated where looking back over the past 6 months or so, accessible here below, ...
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/50km_night/anim.html
 
.. and able to be compared with where set beside, the animation similar focusing on SSTAs that I've posted a link to above within my post, no. 66.
 
Basically, this animation works perhaps a bit better to show this current's, more current influence.

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Atmosphere cooperating with the Niño it forced in the first place? Say it ain't so? :)

 

The Niño state is the atmospheric state..problem is there is intra-seasonal variability involved..essentially subharmonics that tune according to both external forcings and internal resonance(s). Looking at the reason for the Niño state and the subharmonics (that will either amplify or dampen it) usually gives a ballpark estimate of systematic amplitude

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Hmm... So Phil, are you saying that this looks like Nino precursor to you?  Could it just be a more run of the mill Kelvin wave signature?  I'm trying to convince myself, but remaining skeptical still about the odds of a verifiable Nino over the next 6 months.  The SSTs and heat contents don't appear to me to be coming together.

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The subsurface SSTs do not force the Niño..they're a result of downwelling caused by the Niño circulation. Subsurface waters in the tropical waters are almost always colder than the SSTs..those anomaly graphics trick a lot of people who fail to realize that they're not representing the actual water temperatures

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Subsurface waters in the tropical waters are almost always colder than the SSTs..those anomaly graphics trick a lot of people who fail to realize that they're not representing the actual water temperatures.

 

Hence the "Que the jaws music", preface to what you've posted above then, eay professor.  ... (?)

 

"Niño circulation" "=" what, then. ?, per your definition. 

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Hence the "Que the jaws music", preface to what you've posted above then, eay professor. ... (?)

 

"Niño circulation" "=" what, then. ?, per your definition.

 

"representing" ? .. (representative.), indicative, more .. presumably.

The graphics depict a Kelvin Wave crossing the Pacific...leads to downwelling & an eastward propagation of the WPAC warm pool...it is evidence that the waters are responding to the earlier WWB activity

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.. this you own definition then. ? Or one attached to the idea by climatologists . ?

The latter. The signatures associated with KW activity are known to almost every atmospheric scientist...this is discussed throughout the literature.

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Hmm... So Phil, are you saying that this looks like Nino precursor to you?  Could it just be a more run of the mill Kelvin wave signature?  I'm trying to convince myself, but remaining skeptical still about the odds of a verifiable Nino over the next 6 months.  The SSTs and heat contents don't appear to me to be coming together.

 

The trade winds, or lack of, have the most influence. 

 

http://s4.postimg.org/6cjr0u44d/trades_S_5_N.png

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... the signatures associated with K[elvin]]W[ave] activity are known to almost every atmospheric scientist...this is discussed throughout the literature.

The subsurface SSTs do not force the Niño..they're a result of downwelling ... [associated with the current Kelvin Wave activity].

 

.... then. Correct. (?)  @  @

 

 "Nino circulation", being a much boarder idea, and in fact involving much more than this activity looked at more in particularly alone.  (.. used, nowhere .. that I've seen. / The latter. )

 

And, to what "[the] literature" are you referring.?

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.. Appreciate the link Chris. Very concise and informative.

 

Hopefully, if Derrick ("Black Hole") gets his "Meteorology 101" thread started up again, he can include this.

 

 Of course a bit more climatological.

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.... then. Correct. (?) @ @

 

"Nino circulation", being a much boarder idea, and in fact involving much more than this activity looked at more in particularly alone. (.. used, nowhere .. that I've seen. / The latter. )

 

And, to what "[the] literature" are you referring.?

Yes.

 

I'm referencing the broad consensus in the peer-reviewed literature regarding the nature of oceanic kelvin waves.

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.. Great. (As in, "wonderful".)
 
This means that, .. if, with the idea that where considering something that I'd identified instead as being what you'd meant to suggest; that idea's, being well appreciated to be the case, by peers of those who know better. 
 
.. "Nino circulation", meaning the "activity" of "Kevin Waves".   Sorta.
 
Totally clear.  (Only too glad, just to have been part of the "process".)

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"Cool" at this point, out at "fisherman's" "point".  (... where looking at the Galapagos Islands.)
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.14.2014.gif
 
.. If with the "sea-surface" "current" "circulation" moving up from the south along the greater South American coast, toward "it"fairly cold to this pointappearing to be jostling somewhat.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/50km_night/anim.html

 

Still winter "down south", of course. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

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Late August / their "February" .. south of the equator, the main question still of course at this point more basic with following the main more anomalistic SSTs returns generated, … 
 
Just what will those fisherman from Ecuador and Peru actually see, nearer to Christmastime / their later "June", main "current" circulation wise, just off shore of where they are. ?
 
At this point, very cold water is still pervading more close in, near to and surrounding the Galapagos Islands, nearer the equator. Of course lending to good to excellent fishing, with its being the most conducive and best able to support a more abundance source of food for fish (Along with of course, all sea-life together with what feeds on it.). But will the current having delivered this colder water up from the South dwindle off, more gradually, or more abruptly, with the on set up the warmer season south of the equator. ?
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.25.2014.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html
 

 
.. Another, perspective.   http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/602-pacific-nw-august-2014-discussion/?p=31696

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(.. cross-reference.)

 

Analog points more elemental, this point where compared with 1976-77. More over-all pattern than ENSO alone.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/626-long-range-discussion-for-autumn-and-winter/?p=33096

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/626-long-range-discussion-for-autumn-and-winter/?p=33100  (The post following.)

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