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October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


TT-SEA

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October is certainly starting out on a good note.  I'm hoping for a mix of GOA blocking and cool zonal flow to dominate the month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I disagree about it being totally good news.  We want a warm pool over the GOA, because it one of the requirements for a minus PDO.  Also persistent high pressure over the GOA is a big player in many of our big winters.  I still think the overall persistence of the anomalous GOA ridge this summer and early autumn is a good sign it will make an appearance for part of the winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I don't like reading his blog. It's always upsetting seeing so much misinformation being spread to the public on various topics. Actively dumbing people down with regard to meteorology.

 

Some of it was accurate, but the premise the warm pool over the GOA is bad for snow in the NW is dubious.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Some of it was accurate, but the premise the warm pool over the GOA is bad for snow in the NW is dubious.

Of course he is right about some things. But every blog of his that I've read seems to promote a really oversimplified way of looking at weather/climate overall.

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Niño-ish look continues on most long range guidance. Looks like 7/10 years here featured +ENSO:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

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Funny to see 1997/98 still showing up as an analog. :lol:

 

Typical Niña cells are displaced so far west they're starting to resemble an east-based Niño setup.

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Niño-ish look continues on most long range guidance. Looks like 7/10 years here featured +ENSO:

 

 

Actually some nice years in that mix.  Looks like 4 Ninas and some neutrals.

 

I do hope we see a return to NE Pacific ridging the second half of the month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Actually some nice years in that mix. Looks like 4 Ninas and some neutrals.

Yeah miscounted, looks like 6yrs featured +ENSOs, while 4yrs featured -ENSOs. That's still notable, especially considering the aggregate leans heavily Niño w/ strong EPAC/WHEM forcing.

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Yeah miscounted, looks like 6yrs featured +ENSOs, while 4yrs featured -ENSOs. That's still notable, especially considering the aggregate leans heavily Niño w/ strong EPAC/WHEM forcing.

 

How so? Are we going to have a nino-like winter? Or is it possible the 11-15 day models may be uncharacteristically wrong? ;)

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With Matthew riding up the east coast and typhoon energy possibly blowing up a strong storm over the Aleutians next week, we are probably going to see some big model swings. 12z Canadian went to a strong westcoast ridge in the long range.

 

A strong West Coast ridge could actually work out well.  Most October Arctic outbreaks are preceded by one.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty raw afternoon out here. 51F with rain showers and a light N/NW wind.

 

That is REALLY cool.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

How so? Are we going to have a nino-like winter? Or is it possible the 11-15 day models may be uncharacteristically wrong? ;)

Didn't say anything about winter. ;)

 

I posted my winter thoughts a week ago. Was just describing the modeled pattern progression in the near term. It's notable in that it neither fits a classic Niño or Niña progression.

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Didn't say anything about winter. ;)

 

I posted my winter thoughts a week ago. Was just describing the modeled pattern progression in the near term. It's notable in that it neither fits a classic Niño or Niña progression.

To clarify, note the mix of strong Niños (1997/98, etc) and strong Niñas (1975/76, etc) on the CPC analog aggregate. Very peculiar pattern upcoming.

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Didn't say anything about winter. ;)

 

I posted my winter thoughts a week ago. Was just describing the modeled pattern progression in the near term. It's notable in that it neither fits a classic Niño or Niña progression.

Got it. Fair enough. Sometimes it's hard to tell what you're getting at.

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Got it. Fair enough. Sometimes it's hard to tell what you're getting at.

My fault. I was posting while driving in bumper-to-bumper traffic, so my attention was split.

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Doesn't look Nino-ish for October to me.

What are you looking at? The modeling very much resembles an east-based niño cell. It really doesn't get any more straightforward than this..d11-15 ECMWF ensemble mean:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4C43F616-B8C0-490B-89ED-D22859637F3D_zpslqvayagy.png

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That's a hefty fine up here. Been there and paid that. Over 300 bucks.

Yikes. You can usually get away with it here as long as your vehicle isn't in motion. Still technically against the law I think.

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What are you looking at? The modeling very much resembles an east-based niño cell. It really doesn't get any more straightforward than this..d11-15 ECMWF ensemble mean:

 

 

It's October. Only 3 of the analog years were true Ninos. Troughing right off the west coast of North America is not really a Nino signal this time of year. Strong ridging would be.

A forum for the end of the world.

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It's October. Only 3 of the analog years were true Ninos. Troughing right off the west coast of North America is not really a Nino signal this time of year. Strong ridging would be.

No offense, but I think you've got it backwards, similar to the claims that September and December 2015 resembled Niña cells, when in fact these were coherent east-biased Niño cells.

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Deep NPAC/GOA troughing is a classic component of a Niño regime, where subsidence dominates the IO/MT domain. This is fairly straightforward stuff, in my opinion.

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Partly cloudy again around Seattle and here as well.    WRF missed the band of rain that came through in the last couple hours though.

 

sea52.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just to elaborate on this, here's the week2 VP200 forecast from the GEFS, and the corresponding 10m zonal wind anomalies.

 

Note the westerly winds over th Equatorial Pacific, corresponding to the EHEM subsidence, in conjunction with convective forcing dominating out of the WHEM. Though not really a "classic" ENSO cell of any kind, it's definitely closer to an east-based Niño than a west-based Niña.

 

VP200 anomalies:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B62E95F4-A302-41E4-AC15-DAB2C71FE651_zpsqgsrwyco.png

 

10m zonal wind anomalies:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EE52D178-68C4-46EC-B40A-A824407EEEA0_zps4bj1f7wb.png

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