Jesse Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I feel like the "immenent" pattern change to a semi-permanent offshore low is being overstated. Weren't some people here talking about going into a month and a half+ period of warmth just three weeks ago with some degree of confidence? Things change. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I feel like the "immenent" pattern change to a semi-permanent offshore low is being overstated. Weren't some people here talking about going into a month and a half + period of warmth just three weeks ago with some degree of confidence? Things change.Has anyone actually forecasted a "semi-permanent offshore low"? Just curious. That said, I definitely regret my posts making intraseasonal comparisons to Niño years, and will refrain from doing so in the future. I didn't realize it'd be taken out of context and start a war. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 00z Euro is definitely a little better late in the week than the GFS. Takes a much cooler route with some potential for improvement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Has anyone actually forecasted a "semi-permanent offshore low"? Just curious. That said, I definitely regret my posts making intraseasonal comparisons to Niño years, and will refrain from doing so in the future. I didn't realize it would be taken out of context and start a war. There's no war. You can post whatever kind of analysis you want, obviously. When you are beating the Nino analog drum so hard it is probably a good idea to provide a bit more context, though. Otherwise it just makes things seem confusing and contradictory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I feel like the "immenent" pattern change to a semi-permanent offshore low is being overstated. Weren't some people here talking about going into a month and a half + period of warmth just three weeks ago with some degree of confidence? Things change. We're definitely setting ourselves up for some familiar late November offshore ridging. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 There's no war. You can post whatever kind of analysis you want, obviously. When you are beating the Nino analog drum so hard it is probably a good idea to provide a bit more context, though. Otherwise it just makes things seem confusing and contradictory.I understand. Probably best if I simply lay off the ramblings on intraseasonal stuff for awhile. Hasn't done me any favors and probably belongs in another forum anyway. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 00z Euro is definitely a little better late in the week than the GFS. Takes a much cooler route with some potential for improvement. Yes...much better in the 5 to 7 day period than the GFS. The operational GFS wasn't all that bad, but the ensemble sucked balls. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 We're definitely setting ourselves up for some familiar late November offshore ridging. That's my biggest fear. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 That's my biggest fear.Many of the -ENSO/+QBO analogs delivered in February, as well. I highly doubt this is a one-and-done winter, given what will probably be a highly variable/transient pattern progression. If there's one thing I'm confident of in regards to this winter, it's a highly variable, unstable pattern progression. This background state is just too weak to constrain things much, IMO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I understand. Probably best if I simply lay off the ramblings on intraseasonal stuff for awhile. Hasn't done me any favors and probably belongs in another forum anyway. Well don't deny us your insight. But you shouldn't be surprised if a post comprised of nino-esque analog composite years from the 00Z GFS being compared to a composite map of super ninos with nothing more than a "WOW, all I have to say is LOL." as explanation/commentary gets a mixed reception. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 That's my biggest fear. Mine too. That and kewpie dolls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 All Octobers are created equal. Except for the bad ones that are cool and rainy and yucky and not conducive to outdoor tee ball or whatever.Rainouts are a godsend. Today blew it. Way too pleasant this morning. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Here's a comparison between -ENSO Octobers preceding blocky winters, and -ENSO Octobers preceding zonal winters, all within the satellite era. Note the difference in the EPO. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E3D55BA5-EACD-41AB-9007-EBFA5E03B304_zpsjhvmjf97.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 In the raw, here's satellite-era weak/mod -ENSO Octobers that preceded blocky winters: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/60061ADF-85CA-4D47-AE78-29DA7CE30FC9_zpsffbktryz.png Versus those that preceded zonal winters. Not a huge difference, except over Eurasia/NE Siberia: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DF431A14-5778-435A-B9FD-81E3A77A399D_zpsa8zesbc6.png Difference: Eurasian gradient and EPO still predictors: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/26DFFE6C-7AD9-4E97-A19A-9FF13BD062D3_zpsnrgrhgvt.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Sort of funny that Phil is being called out for colorful posts about Nino analogs... but the same people had absolutely no problem with his dramatic flair and colorful posts about the 'nuclear' development of this insanely strong Nina during the early summer months. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Sort of funny that Phil is being called out for colorful posts about Nino analogs... the same people had absolutely no problem with his dramatic flair and colorful posts about the 'nuclear' development of this insanely strong Nina during the early summer months. I never said anything like that. Just clarifying. I think you were the one predicting a strong Niña, not me. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I never said anything like that. You were predicting a strong Niña, not me. I know that... and you are not predicting a Nino now. Point being... a certain person loved your colorful posts back then but hates them now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Nice morning here... clear and dry. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I am going to be honest. This is my most insightful commentary in months, maybe years. Take heed. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. I hope you will provide some insight for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Nice morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Weakening deformation band from Portland to Vancouver Island showing up to the west of Seattle. Looks like it just falls apart in place today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 35 with light rain. Some tiny wet flurries mixed in. The high today may not even reach 50. Chance of t'storms throughout the entire CWA this afternoon but not so sure about the east sides. October t'storms a very rare here. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I'll drink (with you) to that! The last two Octobers here were nightmares. I think the only people here who liked them were Matt and Tim. Personally I thought October 2014 was interesting. And any October that can have both an indian summer and a good windstorm deserves a medal. Oct 2015 wasn't a big deal though, last one and the one before don't belong in the same sentence. Oct 2014 actually ended up as one of the rainiest Octobers as well as being warm, and Oct 2015 wasn't all that rainy, at least in this neck of the woods. Diversity makes good Octobers, it should have pleased just about everyone regardless of taste. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I'm not worried We'll see where the numbers end up and go from there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Here's a comparison between -ENSO Octobers preceding blocky winters, and -ENSO Octobers preceding zonal winters, all within the satellite era. Note the difference in the EPO. I'm still not sure about excluding pre 1975 data from this. The years you are using are almost all in the period since our January woes began. Obviously it's going to take something different to lead to a good January here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 A cold rain this morning. 49 degrees and coming down moderately. Yesterday never touched 60 here, and winds were breezy from the south all afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 My son this morning with his new car that he bought yesterday. A 2005 Toyota 4 Runner with AWD. His main goal was having something he could take skiing and to be able to get up our hill in snow... and something that could tow our boat so he can be on the lake with his friends without any help from mom and dad. He has a job and will be making all the payments. It comes fast Matt... get ready! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Nice morning here... clear and dry. Your house is in the Garden of Eden now! Another .30" of rain overnight here. Currently light rain and 48. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 My son this morning with his new car that he bought yesterday. A 2005 Toyota 4 Runner with AWD. His main goal was having something he could take skiing and to be able to get up our hill in snow... and something that could tow our boat so he can be on the lake with his friends without any help from mom and dad. He has a job and will be making all the payments. It comes fast Matt... get ready! Good for him! Nice car! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Your house is in the Garden of Eden now! Another .30" of rain overnight here. Currently light rain and 48. Just got lucky with the upper level trough digging south. I will not complain. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 The 0z GFS ensemble is pretty bad. Not what I want to see this month. I'm not saying winter is doomed if it verifies, but our chances will be lower of a great winter IMO. I'll explain further later.What the hell?! Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed this morning? Blasphemy! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Very cold morning in E. Oregon. Burns down to 18, Lakeview 16 this morning. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I'm still not sure about excluding pre 1975 data from this. The years you are using are almost all in the period since our January woes began. Obviously it's going to take something different to lead to a good January here.I didn't include them because their Hadley/Z-cells are ridiculously different vs modern years. I'd have included them if I thought they had any chance at usefulness as far as comparisons between seasonal progressions are concerned. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 56/45 here yesterday. 0.60" of rain so far with this system here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Weakening deformation band from Portland to Vancouver Island showing up to the west of Seattle. Looks like it just falls apart in place today. Cloudy with light showers up here this morning. At least now the flow has become southeasterly we're looking at either sun or scattered convective showers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I didn't include them because their Hadley/Z-cells are ridiculously different vs modern years. I'd have included them if I thought they had any chance at usefulness as far as comparisons between seasonal progressions are concerned. I have a feeling our regime is shifting again. As a result we may be partially blind for a few years. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 A lot of lightning strikes off the SW Oregon coast this morning. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I have a feeling our regime is shifting again. As a result we may be partially blind for a few years.Perhaps, but (as of yet) this broad/poleward cell regime has yet to change. In fact, as of the September data, the Hadley Cells are probably as poleward biased (globally speaking) as they've ever been in the modern record. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Perhaps, but (as of yet) this broad/poleward cell regime has yet to change. In fact, as of the September data, the Hadley Cells are probably as poleward biased (globally speaking) as they've ever been in the modern record. I wonder if that could be the reason the GOA positive anomaly has been shifted so poleward this season. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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