October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I feel like the "immenent" pattern change to a semi-permanent offshore low is being overstated. Weren't some people here talking about going into a month and a half+ period of warmth just three weeks ago with some degree of confidence? Things change.

[Phil]

I feel like the "immenent" pattern change to a semi-permanent offshore low is being overstated. Weren't some people here talking about going into a month and a half + period of warmth just three weeks ago with some degree of confidence? Things change.

Has anyone actually forecasted a "semi-permanent offshore low"? Just curious.

 

That said, I definitely regret my posts making intraseasonal comparisons to Niño years, and will refrain from doing so in the future. I didn't realize it'd be taken out of context and start a war.

[Jesse]

00z Euro is definitely a little better late in the week than the GFS. Takes a much cooler route with some potential for improvement.

[Jesse]

Has anyone actually forecasted a "semi-permanent offshore low"? Just curious.

 

That said, I definitely regret my posts making intraseasonal comparisons to Niño years, and will refrain from doing so in the future. I didn't realize it would be taken out of context and start a war.

 

There's no war. You can post whatever kind of analysis you want, obviously. When you are beating the Nino analog drum so hard it is probably a good idea to provide a bit more context, though. Otherwise it just makes things seem confusing and contradictory.

[BLI snowman]

I feel like the "immenent" pattern change to a semi-permanent offshore low is being overstated. Weren't some people here talking about going into a month and a half + period of warmth just three weeks ago with some degree of confidence? Things change.

 

We're definitely setting ourselves up for some familiar late November offshore ridging. 

[Phil]

There's no war. You can post whatever kind of analysis you want, obviously. When you are beating the Nino analog drum so hard it is probably a good idea to provide a bit more context, though. Otherwise it just makes things seem confusing and contradictory.

I understand. Probably best if I simply lay off the ramblings on intraseasonal stuff for awhile. Hasn't done me any favors and probably belongs in another forum anyway.

[snow_wizard]

00z Euro is definitely a little better late in the week than the GFS. Takes a much cooler route with some potential for improvement.

 

Yes...much better in the 5 to 7 day period than the GFS.  The operational GFS wasn't all that bad, but the ensemble sucked balls.

[snow_wizard]

We're definitely setting ourselves up for some familiar late November offshore ridging. 

 

That's my biggest fear.

[Phil]

That's my biggest fear.

Many of the -ENSO/+QBO analogs delivered in February, as well. I highly doubt this is a one-and-done winter, given what will probably be a highly variable/transient pattern progression.

 

If there's one thing I'm confident of in regards to this winter, it's a highly variable, unstable pattern progression. This background state is just too weak to constrain things much, IMO.

[Jesse]

I understand. Probably best if I simply lay off the ramblings on intraseasonal stuff for awhile. Hasn't done me any favors and probably belongs in another forum anyway.

 

Well don't deny us your insight. But you shouldn't be surprised if a post comprised of nino-esque analog composite years from the 00Z GFS being compared to a composite map of super ninos with nothing more than a "WOW, all I have to say is LOL." as explanation/commentary gets a mixed reception.

[Jesse]

That's my biggest fear.

 

Mine too. That and kewpie dolls.

[Deweydog]

All Octobers are created equal. Except for the bad ones that are cool and rainy and yucky and not conducive to outdoor tee ball or whatever.

Rainouts are a godsend. Today blew it. Way too pleasant this morning.

[Phil]

Here's a comparison between -ENSO Octobers preceding blocky winters, and -ENSO Octobers preceding zonal winters, all within the satellite era. Note the difference in the EPO.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E3D55BA5-EACD-41AB-9007-EBFA5E03B304_zpsjhvmjf97.png

[Phil]

In the raw, here's satellite-era weak/mod -ENSO Octobers that preceded blocky winters:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/60061ADF-85CA-4D47-AE78-29DA7CE30FC9_zpsffbktryz.png

 

Versus those that preceded zonal winters. Not a huge difference, except over Eurasia/NE Siberia:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DF431A14-5778-435A-B9FD-81E3A77A399D_zpsa8zesbc6.png

 

Difference: Eurasian gradient and EPO still predictors:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/26DFFE6C-7AD9-4E97-A19A-9FF13BD062D3_zpsnrgrhgvt.png

[TT-SEA]

Sort of funny that Phil is being called out for colorful posts about Nino analogs... but the same people had absolutely no problem with his dramatic flair and colorful posts about the 'nuclear' development of this insanely strong Nina during the early summer months.   

[Phil]

Sort of funny that Phil is being called out for colorful posts about Nino analogs... the same people had absolutely no problem with his dramatic flair and colorful posts about the 'nuclear' development of this insanely strong Nina during the early summer months.

I never said anything like that. Just clarifying.

 

I think you were the one predicting a strong Niña, not me.

[TT-SEA]

I never said anything like that.

 

You were predicting a strong Niña, not me.

 

I know that... and you are not predicting a Nino now.   

 

Point being... a certain person loved your colorful posts back then but hates them now.

[TT-SEA]

Nice morning here... clear and dry.  

[Weather101]

[stuffradio]

I am going to be honest. This is my most insightful commentary in months, maybe years. Take heed. 

 

I don't know whether to laugh or cry. I hope you will provide some insight for me.

[TT-SEA]

Nice morning...

 

[TT-SEA]

Weakening deformation band from Portland to Vancouver Island showing up to the west of Seattle.    Looks like it just falls apart in place today.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

35 with light rain. Some tiny wet flurries mixed in.

 

The high today may not even reach 50. Chance of t'storms throughout the entire CWA this afternoon but not so sure about the east sides. October t'storms a very rare here.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'll drink (with you) to that!

 

The last two Octobers here were nightmares. I think the only people here who liked them were Matt and Tim.

 

Personally I thought October 2014 was interesting. And any October that can have both an indian summer and a good windstorm deserves a medal. Oct 2015 wasn't a big deal though, last one and the one before don't belong in the same sentence. Oct 2014 actually ended up as one of the rainiest Octobers as well as being warm, and Oct 2015 wasn't all that rainy, at least in this neck of the woods. Diversity makes good Octobers, it should have pleased just about everyone regardless of taste.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not worried

 

We'll see where the numbers end up and go from there.

[snow_wizard]

Here's a comparison between -ENSO Octobers preceding blocky winters, and -ENSO Octobers preceding zonal winters, all within the satellite era. Note the difference in the EPO.

 

 

I'm still not sure about excluding pre 1975 data from this.  The years you are using are almost all in the period since our January woes began.  Obviously it's going to take something different to lead to a good January here.

[Jesse]

A cold rain this morning. 49 degrees and coming down moderately.

 

Yesterday never touched 60 here, and winds were breezy from the south all afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

My son this morning with his new car that he bought yesterday.    A 2005 Toyota 4 Runner with AWD.    His main goal was having something he could take skiing and to be able to get up our hill in snow... and something that could tow our boat so he can be on the lake with his friends without any help from mom and dad.    He has a job and will be making all the payments.    It comes fast Matt... get ready!    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice morning here... clear and dry.  

 

Your house is in the Garden of Eden now! Another .30" of rain overnight here. Currently light rain and 48. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My son this morning with his new car that he bought yesterday.    A 2005 Toyota 4 Runner with AWD.    His main goal was having something he could take skiing and to be able to get up our hill in snow... and something that could tow our boat so he can be on the lake with his friends without any help from mom and dad.    He has a job and will be making all the payments.    It comes fast Matt... get ready!    

 

Good for him! Nice car!

[TT-SEA]

Your house is in the Garden of Eden now! Another .30" of rain overnight here. Currently light rain and 48. 

 

 

Just got lucky with the upper level trough digging south.     I will not complain.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 0z GFS ensemble is pretty bad. Not what I want to see this month. I'm not saying winter is doomed if it verifies, but our chances will be lower of a great winter IMO. I'll explain further later.

What the hell?! Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed this morning? Blasphemy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very cold morning in E. Oregon. Burns down to 18, Lakeview 16 this morning. 

[Phil]

I'm still not sure about excluding pre 1975 data from this. The years you are using are almost all in the period since our January woes began. Obviously it's going to take something different to lead to a good January here.

I didn't include them because their Hadley/Z-cells are ridiculously different vs modern years. I'd have included them if I thought they had any chance at usefulness as far as comparisons between seasonal progressions are concerned.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

56/45 here yesterday. 0.60" of rain so far with this system here. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Weakening deformation band from Portland to Vancouver Island showing up to the west of Seattle.    Looks like it just falls apart in place today.

 

 

Cloudy with light showers up here this morning. At least now the flow has become southeasterly we're looking at either sun or scattered convective showers.

[snow_wizard]

I didn't include them because their Hadley/Z-cells are ridiculously different vs modern years. I'd have included them if I thought they had any chance at usefulness as far as comparisons between seasonal progressions are concerned.

 

I have a feeling our regime is shifting again.  As a result we may be partially blind for a few years.

[Timmy Supercell]

A lot of lightning strikes off the SW Oregon coast this morning. 

[Phil]

I have a feeling our regime is shifting again. As a result we may be partially blind for a few years.

Perhaps, but (as of yet) this broad/poleward cell regime has yet to change. In fact, as of the September data, the Hadley Cells are probably as poleward biased (globally speaking) as they've ever been in the modern record.

[snow_wizard]

Perhaps, but (as of yet) this broad/poleward cell regime has yet to change. In fact, as of the September data, the Hadley Cells are probably as poleward biased (globally speaking) as they've ever been in the modern record.

 

I wonder if that could be the reason the GOA positive anomaly has been shifted so poleward this season.