October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Only the third snowiest January on record for SEA and about half the month was cold.  He can sure downplay things!

 

Just being obtuse for the sake of argument. 

[Phil]

That forecast still defies Nina climo though.

There is no such thing as [weak] niña climo. The tropical convective background state is paltry this year. Intraseasonal forcings will easily dominate over the background state when the two destructively interfere. Will probably be a slight Niña bend to things when all is said and done, but that's about it.

 

Look at the current pattern. Weakening Walker Cell, +AAM integral, +PNA. Does this look like a Niña regime to you?

[snow_wizard]

Pretty weird anomalies this month.  Certainly not a GOA low...more of a displaced GOA low.  It's pretty rare to not see the largest anomalies around 150W 45N or so.  This is certainly problematic projecting things forward. 

[crf450ish]

There is no such thing as [weak] niña climo. The tropical convective background state is paltry this year. Intraseasonal forcings will easily dominate over the background state when the two destructively interfere. Will probably be a slight Niña bend to things when all is said and done, but that's about it.

 

Look at the current pattern. Weakening Walker Cell, +AAM integral, +PNA. Does this look like a Niña regime to you?

So, what I think your trying to say is that we are in a more of neutral phase than anything? Not entirely Nino, Not entirely Nina, so the only option is neutral in my mind.

[snow_wizard]

There is no such thing as [weak] niña climo. The tropical convective background state is paltry this year. Intraseasonal forcings will easily dominate over the background state when the two destructively interfere. Will probably be a slight Niña bend to things when all is said and done, but that's about it.

 

Look at the current pattern. Weakening Walker Cell, +AAM integral, +PNA. Does this look like a Niña regime to you?

 

Not too surprising to see what is coming considering it's going to be November.  Very often the opposite sign of the winter proper.

 

The overall pattern hasn't been Ninaish or Ninoish.  I would call October a bastardization between the two.  Really strange.

[snow_wizard]

So, what I think your trying to say is that we are in a more of neutral phase than anything? Not entirely Nino, Not entirely Nina, so the only option is neutral in my mind.

 

It will probably fluctuate between Ninoish and Ninaish this winter.  The big question is where will the super block that is likely this winter set up.

[snow_wizard]

I'm kind of surprised nobody has mentioned the fact we are going to have cross polar flow setting up soon.  I've never seen that type of a block in October before.  Right up to the pole and beyond.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE up to 10.10" of rain on the month now. Just about an inch below their all-time record for the month. 

[TT-SEA]

Dumb. January 1954 was easily one of the better snowfall months of the 20th century for WA state.

 

I only looked at Snoqualmie Falls data in my Excel file.   

 

I guess it was not that bad... but the rest of the winter was a turd.

 

 

http://s14.postimg.org/vmc44ulm9/1954.png

[Phil]

So, what I think your trying to say is that we are in a more of neutral phase than anything? Not entirely Nino, Not entirely Nina, so the only option is neutral in my mind.

For the weak Niña background, envision a sine wave, amplitude 2, superimposed on the line y = -0.5, on a typical Cartesian plane. Overall bias through time is weakly negative (Niña), but intraseasonal oscillations range from +1.5 to -2.5. So, there's variation there.

 

Obviously this is oversimplified vs what happens in reality, but the general idea is the same.

[crf450ish]

I only looked at Snoqualmie Falls data in my Excel file.   

 

I guess it was not that bad... but the rest of the winter was a turd.

 

 

http://s14.postimg.org/vmc44ulm9/1954.png

D**n, you go hard with the records. 

[snow_wizard]

SLE up to 10.10" of rain on the month now. Just about an inch below their all-time record for the month. 

 

Crazy totals this month.  The enormous positive height anoms over AK certainly explain it.

[crf450ish]

For the weak Niña background, envision a sine wave, amplitude 2, superimposed on the line y = -0.5, on a typical Cartesian plane. Overall bias through time is weakly negative (Niña), but intraseasonal oscillations range from +1.5 to -2.5. So, there's variation there.

 

Obviously this is oversimplified vs what happens in reality, but the general idea is the same.

Your getting into theoretical load calculation mathematics that we use when attempting to estimate the weight of an object being lifted with a crane that has no data of its weight when installed. Like a refinery Pressure vessel installed in the 60's... Trying to estimate the amount of material that has worn away with time and diminished the overall gross weight. We use theoretical load calculations to determine the correct crane to arrive on site as well as the proper safety precautions. Lots of dynamic variables that are almost always unable to be calculated even to the roughest...

[snow_wizard]

D**n, you go hard with the records. 

 

To call that not bad compared to the crap we've had lately is going pretty hard on it alright.  Incidentally 1953-54 also had cold and snow in March. 

[Phil]

Not too surprising to see what is coming considering it's going to be November. Very often the opposite sign of the winter proper.

 

The overall pattern hasn't been Ninaish or Ninoish. I would call October a bastardization between the two. Really strange.

I agree the multimodal variations lately are strange as hell, however since October 10th I think the system state has been quite niñoish. This is to be expected (at times) under a weak background state, so it's no surprise.

[crf450ish]

To call that not bad compared to the crap we've had lately is going pretty hard on it alright.  Incidentally 1953-54 also had cold and snow in March. 

I was surprised that he has a spreadsheet made up of weather records. I have actually wanted to do the same thing for western wa and eastern wa to merely compare the differences in events but am too lazy....

[Phil]

It will probably fluctuate between Ninoish and Ninaish this winter. The big question is where will the super block that is likely this winter set up.

If the QBO analogs are to be believed, blocking should peak during January, so that's where I'm focusing my attention.

 

The exact nature of the blocking is still up in the air, however I'm reasonably confident that it'll involve a big -AO. Whether is AO/EPO, AO/NAO, or all three, I have absolutely no clue.

[TT-SEA]

To call that not bad compared to the crap we've had lately is going pretty hard on it alright. Incidentally 1953-54 also had cold and snow in March.

I never called it 'crap' for the record.

 

Also remember I am not always in tune with true lowland winter standards.

 

I lived for 22 years in MN and the last 13 years at 1,100 feet here. I have never really lived in the actual lowlands. That winter had one good week to 10 days at Palmer. I have seen much better here. That was sort of like January 2012 here.

[crf450ish]

I never called it 'crap' for the record.

 

Also remember I am always not in tune with true lowland winter standards.

 

I lived for 22 years in MN and the last 13 years at 1,100 feet here. I have never really lived the actual lowlands. That winter had one good week to 10 days at Palmer. I have seen much better here. That was sort of like January 2012 here.

I was in the twin cities for 2 days in November of 2014...don't recall the specifics but it was chilly alright and there was a little snow on the ground. I was amazed at how everyone just didn't even blink at the weather and kept on traveling at 70+ MPH on the highway. Nothing changed, no traffic snarles, etc. Thats right around the time I pulled the trigger on moving east of the cascades. 

[TT-SEA]

I was surprised that he has a spreadsheet made up of weather records. I have actually wanted to do the same thing for western wa and eastern wa to merely compare the differences in events but am too lazy....

And I color coded it so I can easily see wet and dry periods as well as cold and warm periods.

[Phil]

Your getting into theoretical load calculation mathematics that we use when attempting to estimate the weight of an object being lifted with a crane that has no data of its weight when installed. Like a refinery Pressure vessel installed in the 60's... Trying to estimate the amount of material that has worn away with time and diminished the overall gross weight. We use theoretical load calculations to determine the correct crane to arrive on site as well as the proper safety precautions. Lots of dynamic variables that are almost always unable to be calculated even to the roughest...

Sounds like fun.

 

It's funny...technically we could fill 10,000 pages with mathematics attempting to represent the equilibrative progression of the climate system over one week, and we'd still be missing or parameterizing 99.999^infinity(%) of the process. I definitely don't envy the programmers at NCEP/ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

To call that not bad compared to the crap we've had lately is going pretty hard on it alright.  Incidentally 1953-54 also had cold and snow in March. 

 

 

I don't see any snow in March of 1954 at Snoqualmie Falls.   No day below 45... most days in the 50s and some 60s.    Not too wet though... with some chilly nights.   

[MossMan]

The moss on my front entry cement steps is really taking off! Much earlier than normal, I would say based on that we are going to be in for it 1990 style at least!!

[HighlandExperience]

I was in the twin cities for 2 days in November of 2014...don't recall the specifics but it was chilly alright and there was a little snow on the ground. I was amazed at how everyone just didn't even blink at the weather and kept on traveling at 70+ MPH on the highway. Nothing changed, no traffic snarles, etc. Thats right around the time I pulled the trigger on moving east of the cascades.

I lived in Minneapolis, trust me traffic gets plenty bad there when it snows.

[TT-SEA]

I was in the twin cities for 2 days in November of 2014...don't recall the specifics but it was chilly alright and there was a little snow on the ground. I was amazed at how everyone just didn't even blink at the weather and kept on traveling at 70+ MPH on the highway. Nothing changed, no traffic snarles, etc. Thats right around the time I pulled the trigger on moving east of the cascades. 

 

 

Yeah... the general public in MN is extremely intelligent when it comes to the weather.   More so than in most places.   And they don't freak out about much of anything.    Unlike here where the reporters are crawling through the streets when there are flurries and the entire newscast is dedicated to an inch of snow.   Or when it gets above 90.  

[TT-SEA]

I lived in Minneapolis, trust me traffic gets plenty bad there when it snows.

 

Have to slow down... its just common sense!

[crf450ish]

Sounds like fun.

 

It's funny...technically we could fill 10,000 pages with mathematics attempting to represent the equilibrative progression of the climate system over one week, and we'd still be missing or parameterizing 99.999% of the process. I definitely don't envy the programmers at NCEP/ECMWF.

If I would have known about myself what I know now, back in 2004-2005ish, I would have definitely strived to go to school for atmospheric sciences. This stuff amazes me everyday. You never know whats going to happen. I can imagine getting paid to analyze the weather and make predictions based on the behavior the atmosphere on a day to day basis. Just sounds intriguing and fascinating to me. 

[HighlandExperience]

Have to slow down... its just common sense.

I'm not talking about just little slow downs. I've seen some pretty bad wrecks in the Twin Cities. Quite honestly they are not much better than drivers in Seattle. Just my observation as a former medic.

[TT-SEA]

If I would have known about myself what I know now, back in 2004-2005ish, I would have definitely strived to go to school for atmospheric sciences. This stuff amazes me everyday. You never know whats going to happen. I can imagine getting paid to analyze the weather and make predictions based on the behavior the atmosphere on a day to day basis. Just sounds intriguing and fascinating to me. 

 

 

Wouldn't it be fun if we got paid for our time on this forum discussing weather?   

 

None of us would work a day in our lives if we were paid to watch the weather.     Its not work if you have a passion for what you do.   

[TT-SEA]

I'm not talking about just little slow downs. I've seen some pretty bad wrecks in the Twin Cities. Quite honestly they are not much better than drivers in Seattle. Just my observation as a former medic.

 

 

Bad wrecks all over.   Its part of being human right?

[HighlandExperience]

[TT-SEA]

SEA is just .20 from the all-time October record and its pouring rain there.

[TT-SEA]

Sure. I'm just pointing out that drivers in both cities are not much different

 

 

Traffic grinds to a halt here almost every time it rains.      Rain.   In Seattle.   

[crf450ish]

Wouldn't it be fun if we got paid for our time on this forum discussing weather?   

 

None of us would work a day in our lives if we were paid to watch the weather.     Its not work if you have a passion for what you do.   

How much does the average NOAA employee make annually? Anyone know? 

[TT-SEA]

How much does the average NOAA employee make annually? Anyone know? 

 

 

Probably not as much as they should.

[Phil]

Lol, Seattle shuts down after the first snowflake. They're even worse than DC, which is saying something because drivers here are among the worst in the country.

[MossMan]

[HighlandExperience]

How much does the average NOAA employee make annually? Anyone know? 

 

NOAA senior scientist make GS 13 salary. That is equivalent to low six figures. I am not sure how much their weather forecasters make. But I believe many of them start out making GS 9 salaries, and probably go up to GS 12. It is not a bad job. NOAA employees have very generous benefits, and government pensions. Lots of veteran's work there. 

[Phil]

NOAA senior scientist make GS 13 salary. That is equivalent to low six figures. I am not sure how much their weather forecasters make. But I believe many of them start out making GS 9 salaries, and probably go up to GS 12. It is not a bad job. NOAA employees have very generous benefits, and government pensions. Lots of veteran's work there.

Private sector is where it's at.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, Seattle shuts down after the first snowflake.

 

 

After??

 

Well before actually.