Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM.
All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific.
And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August.
Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time?