Report

That’s encouraging. We have some rain off to the SE but that’s going east. The tropics are really revving their engines and the Texas coast will see rain. It’s a matter of time before the Gulf cooks up one of its hurricanes. The water is warm and there have been a number of systems off of Africa trying to spin up. It’s just now getting interesting.

Not if you want to do this.

Notice how each EPS run has trended lower with the AAM. All guidance has been underestimating the La Niña background state this summer, over-estimating amplitude of MJOs/CCKWs crossing the W-Pacific. And the same is probably true with the upcoming -dAAMt/E-Hem MJO return in late July and August. Was initially skeptical given recent history, but now am starting to think August could actually be a cool month up there. Maybe the first one in a long time?

Been away for a bit. What's the latest on the storm threat tomorrow?

That slip n slide looks slick!