Jump to content

November 2022 Observations and Discussion


Clinton

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Niko said:

I think the Thanksgiving storm has gotten colder! Could be some major changes for some.

Last I heard, it was looking like a warm rainer but I think it's too early to know really

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Last I heard, it was looking like a warm rainer but I think it's too early to know really

My forecast calling for rain, but temps are colder. Maybe blocking will show its presence and models are starting to see it. Time will tell.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is now becoming apparent that the models are digesting the -NAO block and the emergence of a sweet looking Hudson Bay Block that is "seeding" the cold over the GL's region by Turkey Day.  Should be fun seeing the various model solutions for what may be a PAC Hybrid Clipper phasing with a southern Low somewhere over the OHV/Lower Lakes region.

 

Trends off the EPS...the appearance of the Hudson Bay Block....

 

image.gif

 

Both the 0z Euro/EPS have significantly cooled the eastern Sub around Thanksgiving...+ trends for those winter wx fans!

 

 

image.gif

 

0z Euro Op 10mb forecast suggests to me that the pattern looks favorable for sustained cold over Eastern North America.  That's a pretty map right there.

1.png

  • Like 2
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple light flurries have been around this morning. Breezy and colder today. Our temperatures will be staying below normal till warming to near normal as we approach the Thanksgiving Holiday.
The record high for today is 76 degrees from way back in 1896. The record low is 9 degrees from 1933. The daily rain record is a whopping 3.40" from 1935. The daily snowfall record is 1.0" from 1980.
image.png.d02585d98782cb90b91990bbeb437b21.png
  • Like 1

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 34/29 there was 0.03” of precipitation, 0.4” of snow fall. There was no sunshine at 7 AM there was 3’ of snow on the ground. The overnight low here in MBY was 24 when there was some clearing. At the current times it is 29 with light snow falling and there is around 1” of snow on the ground here. For today the average H/L is 47/32 the record high of 70 was recorded in 1953 and 1958 the record low of 9 was recorded in 1959. The record snow fall for today is 7.1” in 1989 there was a 6.0 snow fall in 2014. We will see how the next few days compare to past big November snow fall events. The snow fall has really picked up here and now I am getting moderate snow fall.

  • Like 2
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Niko said:

My forecast calling for rain, but temps are colder. Maybe blocking will show its presence and models are starting to see it. Time will tell.

Hello blocking??

gfs_ref_frzn_ncus_31.png

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Legit 20's and all puddles iced over here this morning. Even some quite large and deep close to work. Getting the warmth out of the ground that's for sure.

And the old school rules complete the circuit with these maps:

1788162659_2022-11-17NOAAD1SurfMap.png.fdded774a4a16a95ff4e639f68b7694d.png

1692482075_2022-11-17NOAAD2SurfMap.png.4f8c6363c53d9f1ddb5b2e375169f212.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The MJO forecast is eerily similar to November-December 1983 and 1989. We could have a monster cold wave (or multiple reinforcements) for December and the CFS model is showing a active mid to late December. 

  • Like 2

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is just dropping the western energy into a hole in Mexico, never to be seen again.

Usual bias…not too worried…there will be a formidable system in the center of our Sub.  All teleconnections point to it and ensemble support.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Aside from that system, looking pretty bleak for everyone but Andie for awhile. 

Texas looks to catch up on some badly needed precipitation.

Awesome.   We’ll take it any way it will fall.  I had heard light snow with no accumulation but rain is preferable.  
Currently 52   
Low tonight 37. 
High tomorrow 49

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is just dropping the western energy into a hole in Mexico, never to be seen again.

 

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Usual bias…not too worried…there will be a formidable system in the center of our Sub.  All teleconnections point to it and ensemble support.

I don't know if this storm will go get lost in Mexico but I could see the energy cutting off and holding back out west and eject in pieces.  We've seen that before this season.

Map from Oct 7th:  We had a sky high PNA

image.thumb.png.9478799e4a60f2f4b37cfde0f04984c8.png

Map valid Nov 25th we have more of a neutral PNA.  You'll notice both maps have a trough over the lakes also.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_59.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

I don't know if this storm will go get lost in Mexico but I could see the energy cutting off and holding back out west and eject in pieces.  We've seen that before this season.

Map from Oct 7th:  We had a sky high PNA

image.thumb.png.9478799e4a60f2f4b37cfde0f04984c8.png

Map valid Nov 25th we have more of a neutral PNA.  You'll notice both maps have a trough over the lakes also.

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_59.png

Good job looking back at the wx maps.  I have not dived in deeply into the pattern.  That does look like a good match.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Good job looking back at the wx maps.  I have not dived in deeply into the pattern.  That does look like a good match.

It's still a ways out but the models have been showing this off and on for the last 4 or 5 days.  I think cycle 2 is almost here.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15F Windchill and SHSN making this evening feel more like quality Dec out there. Brrr

  • Like 4

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's still a ways out but the models have been showing this off and on for the last 4 or 5 days.  I think cycle 2 is almost here.

Good call. The euro had the right idea from this range in my book and agreeing that there's not been a diving cutoff die out over Mexico this year, should be nice to watch. 

Appear to see the longer range shades of old pattern with upper air features over the northeast as well. 2 good clues for super long range.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just took a snow fall measurement and here in MBY there is now 5.5" of snow on the ground. I am sure much more has fallen. But with the warm ground it has really compacted and is more like synoptic snow then lake effect.  It is very wet and as I said 5.5" on the ground and just over 2" on the road. And it has been reported that Grand Rapids public schools are closed for tomorrow.  The record snow fall for today is 7.1" set in 1989. For tomorrow the record is 9.6" in 2014.

  • Like 3
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Just took a snow fall measurement and here in MBY there is now 5.5" of snow on the ground. I am sure much more has fallen. But with the warm ground it has really compacted and is more like synoptic snow then lake effect.  It is very wet and as I said 5.5" on the ground and just over 2" on the road. And it has been reported that Grand Rapids public schools are closed for tomorrow.  The record snow fall for today is 7.1" set in 1989. For tomorrow the record is 9.6" in 2014.

Last squall put me at 6.2” on the grass average.  I’m guessing we’ve had about 9-10” with these squalls.  The rates are impressive when it snows.  The wind has been pretty light.   Roads are awful as they’ve all iced up.  
 

one more big squall should drop an inch before it quiets down for a bit.  

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, westMJim said:

Just took a snow fall measurement and here in MBY there is now 5.5" of snow on the ground. I am sure much more has fallen. But with the warm ground it has really compacted and is more like synoptic snow then lake effect.  It is very wet and as I said 5.5" on the ground and just over 2" on the road. And it has been reported that Grand Rapids public schools are closed for tomorrow.  The record snow fall for today is 7.1" set in 1989. For tomorrow the record is 9.6" in 2014.

Hopefully the wetter character of the snow will freeze over and support a good foundation for the snow cover.  Could it last for the into DEC?  It's looking encouraging that the GL's region is in the vicinity of the colder air as blocking develops.

@OKwx2k4You getting Snow this morning?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A new record snow fall amount for November 17th was set at Grand Rapids with 7.1” of snow fall. The official H/L yesterday was 32/26 to go with that record snow fall 0.43” of total precipitation fell. There was just 1% of sunshine. For today the average H/L is 46/32 the record high of 70 was set in 1958 and 2016 the record low of 11 was set in 1959. The record snow fall for today is 9.6” set in 2014. Here at my house I now have a temperature of 27 with light snow falling there is now 6.4” of snow on the ground here and the road here is snow covered with 3” of snow on the road. At Grand Rapids the total snow fall for November is now at 11.1" the record for any November is 31.0" in 2014. Of that 27.8" fell in a 5 day event that November.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I was just gonna say, those are some bone chilling temps out there in the Plains!  Novembrrrrr!

@CentralNebWeatherin the single digits also...

image.png

My gauge says we got down to 6 degrees.  The lowest wind chills I could find were around -13.  Dang chilly.  Just wish we would have had a blanket a snow to really tank it.  Oh well.

  • Shivering 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lake effect off and on continues today with a few more inches.  Tomorrow it really gets going again.  Expecting another 4-6" saturday through saturday night, with windier and more drifting and drier snow.    Good bet I end up with 12-16" total (low end prediction actually)  by Sunday.  Not quite 2014, but a rare event for this time of year indeed.    Hopefully we get some big storms this winter.  

  • Like 4
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...