jaster220 Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Niko said: I think the Thanksgiving storm has gotten colder! Could be some major changes for some. Last I heard, it was looking like a warm rainer but I think it's too early to know really Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 18 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Last I heard, it was looking like a warm rainer but I think it's too early to know really My forecast calling for rain, but temps are colder. Maybe blocking will show its presence and models are starting to see it. Time will tell. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 looks like this meso low may clip me! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Climo change at Madison,SD--- Temp going below dewpoint-- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 It is now becoming apparent that the models are digesting the -NAO block and the emergence of a sweet looking Hudson Bay Block that is "seeding" the cold over the GL's region by Turkey Day. Should be fun seeing the various model solutions for what may be a PAC Hybrid Clipper phasing with a southern Low somewhere over the OHV/Lower Lakes region. Trends off the EPS...the appearance of the Hudson Bay Block.... Both the 0z Euro/EPS have significantly cooled the eastern Sub around Thanksgiving...+ trends for those winter wx fans! 0z Euro Op 10mb forecast suggests to me that the pattern looks favorable for sustained cold over Eastern North America. That's a pretty map right there. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chescowxman Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 A couple light flurries have been around this morning. Breezy and colder today. Our temperatures will be staying below normal till warming to near normal as we approach the Thanksgiving Holiday. The record high for today is 76 degrees from way back in 1896. The record low is 9 degrees from 1933. The daily rain record is a whopping 3.40" from 1935. The daily snowfall record is 1.0" from 1980. 1 Quote All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County. There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science! Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" - 11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8") Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5") 2020/21 snow (52.2") / 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0"). Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com. Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx National Weather Service SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Billings,MT chasing history with all ready the 6th coldest NOV on record. 2 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Impressive snow cover for this time of year (41% coverage)...it may not be that accurate but a reason why its so important to lay down the snow to brew "home grown" cold. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 34/29 there was 0.03” of precipitation, 0.4” of snow fall. There was no sunshine at 7 AM there was 3’ of snow on the ground. The overnight low here in MBY was 24 when there was some clearing. At the current times it is 29 with light snow falling and there is around 1” of snow on the ground here. For today the average H/L is 47/32 the record high of 70 was recorded in 1953 and 1958 the record low of 9 was recorded in 1959. The record snow fall for today is 7.1” in 1989 there was a 6.0 snow fall in 2014. We will see how the next few days compare to past big November snow fall events. The snow fall has really picked up here and now I am getting moderate snow fall. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 It has been snowing at a light to moderate rate now since 8 AM. Here in my yard I have just under 3" of new snow on the ground. There is just slush on the driveway and sidewalk. The warm ground and a air temperature of 34 is keeping total on the ground down. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Northeast Iowa gets hammered Black Friday 12z 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Check that, eastern Iowa and Chicago get dumped on through the first 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 12 hours ago, Niko said: My forecast calling for rain, but temps are colder. Maybe blocking will show its presence and models are starting to see it. Time will tell. Hello blocking?? 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Hello blocking?? These are the PAC Hybrids I commented on hoping we can see more of in DEC...let's go for Thanksgiving! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Legit 20's and all puddles iced over here this morning. Even some quite large and deep close to work. Getting the warmth out of the ground that's for sure. And the old school rules complete the circuit with these maps: 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 The Euro is just dropping the western energy into a hole in Mexico, never to be seen again. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 The MJO forecast is eerily similar to November-December 1983 and 1989. We could have a monster cold wave (or multiple reinforcements) for December and the CFS model is showing a active mid to late December. 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Euro is just dropping the western energy into a hole in Mexico, never to be seen again. Usual bias…not too worried…there will be a formidable system in the center of our Sub. All teleconnections point to it and ensemble support. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 There is now around 4" of snow on the ground here in my yard. There is no snow on the road and only spotty snow on the sidewalks and driveways. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GEM showing a decent sized post-Thanksgiving ice storm. At this point, I'd take any moisture. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: At this point, I'd take any moisture. Aside from that system, looking pretty bleak for everyone but Andie for awhile. Texas looks to catch up on some badly needed precipitation. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Aside from that system, looking pretty bleak for everyone but Andie for awhile. Texas looks to catch up on some badly needed precipitation. Not a great pattern. So far it is very similar to last year around here, which was awful. Our drought continues unabated. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 36 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: Aside from that system, looking pretty bleak for everyone but Andie for awhile. Texas looks to catch up on some badly needed precipitation. Awesome. We’ll take it any way it will fall. I had heard light snow with no accumulation but rain is preferable. Currently 52 Low tonight 37. High tomorrow 49 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 9 hours ago, Hawkeye said: The Euro is just dropping the western energy into a hole in Mexico, never to be seen again. 8 hours ago, Tom said: Usual bias…not too worried…there will be a formidable system in the center of our Sub. All teleconnections point to it and ensemble support. I don't know if this storm will go get lost in Mexico but I could see the energy cutting off and holding back out west and eject in pieces. We've seen that before this season. Map from Oct 7th: We had a sky high PNA Map valid Nov 25th we have more of a neutral PNA. You'll notice both maps have a trough over the lakes also. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: I don't know if this storm will go get lost in Mexico but I could see the energy cutting off and holding back out west and eject in pieces. We've seen that before this season. Map from Oct 7th: We had a sky high PNA Map valid Nov 25th we have more of a neutral PNA. You'll notice both maps have a trough over the lakes also. Good job looking back at the wx maps. I have not dived in deeply into the pattern. That does look like a good match. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Tom said: Good job looking back at the wx maps. I have not dived in deeply into the pattern. That does look like a good match. It's still a ways out but the models have been showing this off and on for the last 4 or 5 days. I think cycle 2 is almost here. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 I'm watching the Packers and the Titans play in Green Bay tonight the snow is awesome. Talk about football weather! 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 15F Windchill and SHSN making this evening feel more like quality Dec out there. Brrr 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Clinton said: It's still a ways out but the models have been showing this off and on for the last 4 or 5 days. I think cycle 2 is almost here. Good call. The euro had the right idea from this range in my book and agreeing that there's not been a diving cutoff die out over Mexico this year, should be nice to watch. Appear to see the longer range shades of old pattern with upper air features over the northeast as well. 2 good clues for super long range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Just took a snow fall measurement and here in MBY there is now 5.5" of snow on the ground. I am sure much more has fallen. But with the warm ground it has really compacted and is more like synoptic snow then lake effect. It is very wet and as I said 5.5" on the ground and just over 2" on the road. And it has been reported that Grand Rapids public schools are closed for tomorrow. The record snow fall for today is 7.1" set in 1989. For tomorrow the record is 9.6" in 2014. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, westMJim said: Just took a snow fall measurement and here in MBY there is now 5.5" of snow on the ground. I am sure much more has fallen. But with the warm ground it has really compacted and is more like synoptic snow then lake effect. It is very wet and as I said 5.5" on the ground and just over 2" on the road. And it has been reported that Grand Rapids public schools are closed for tomorrow. The record snow fall for today is 7.1" set in 1989. For tomorrow the record is 9.6" in 2014. Last squall put me at 6.2” on the grass average. I’m guessing we’ve had about 9-10” with these squalls. The rates are impressive when it snows. The wind has been pretty light. Roads are awful as they’ve all iced up. one more big squall should drop an inch before it quiets down for a bit. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 upped to 8 to 12 tonight...see if it happens.... Just started dumping. Here we go 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 26 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: GFS showing a very dry next 10 days for practically the entire CONUS. Heck, even parts into S AK. Yeah the Thanksgiving storm is not looking promising for our areas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 7 hours ago, westMJim said: Just took a snow fall measurement and here in MBY there is now 5.5" of snow on the ground. I am sure much more has fallen. But with the warm ground it has really compacted and is more like synoptic snow then lake effect. It is very wet and as I said 5.5" on the ground and just over 2" on the road. And it has been reported that Grand Rapids public schools are closed for tomorrow. The record snow fall for today is 7.1" set in 1989. For tomorrow the record is 9.6" in 2014. Hopefully the wetter character of the snow will freeze over and support a good foundation for the snow cover. Could it last for the into DEC? It's looking encouraging that the GL's region is in the vicinity of the colder air as blocking develops. @OKwx2k4You getting Snow this morning? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Currently 7 degrees with a feels-like of 0. That's downright cold! I was just gonna say, those are some bone chilling temps out there in the Plains! Novembrrrrr! @CentralNebWeatherin the single digits also... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 A new record snow fall amount for November 17th was set at Grand Rapids with 7.1” of snow fall. The official H/L yesterday was 32/26 to go with that record snow fall 0.43” of total precipitation fell. There was just 1% of sunshine. For today the average H/L is 46/32 the record high of 70 was set in 1958 and 2016 the record low of 11 was set in 1959. The record snow fall for today is 9.6” set in 2014. Here at my house I now have a temperature of 27 with light snow falling there is now 6.4” of snow on the ground here and the road here is snow covered with 3” of snow on the road. At Grand Rapids the total snow fall for November is now at 11.1" the record for any November is 31.0" in 2014. Of that 27.8" fell in a 5 day event that November. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Very chilly morning for most of this morning, here it's 18 with a wind chill of 10. Check out the cross polar flow which has been a prominent part of this years LRC. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: I was just gonna say, those are some bone chilling temps out there in the Plains! Novembrrrrr! @CentralNebWeatherin the single digits also... My gauge says we got down to 6 degrees. The lowest wind chills I could find were around -13. Dang chilly. Just wish we would have had a blanket a snow to really tank it. Oh well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Lake effect off and on continues today with a few more inches. Tomorrow it really gets going again. Expecting another 4-6" saturday through saturday night, with windier and more drifting and drier snow. Good bet I end up with 12-16" total (low end prediction actually) by Sunday. Not quite 2014, but a rare event for this time of year indeed. Hopefully we get some big storms this winter. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Ended up with about 4 or 5 here...little further north in Gile they were at 22" at 3am. Hurley got dumped on too 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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