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November 2022 Observations and Discussion


Clinton

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I ran some numbers for Chicago O'Hare for the period from 11/11-11/20 of this year.  I figured it was one of the coldest such periods (because it sure felt like it) but turns out it was "only" 15th coldest.  2014 was actually the coldest 11/11-11/20 on record.

Did the same thing for Detroit, and they came in 17th.

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I'm just catching up on all the latest data as I was on a mission yesterday getting all of my errands done at the stores for our holiday feast...my goodness, I'm tickled with excitement to see all the models agreeing on the pattern evolution.  It appear the late month storm is the one that flips the switch as we open up met Winter!  Pretty stoked to see the massive amount of High Lat Blocking popping right when it begins to count.   Hello -NAO...that West-Based Greenland Block is sure pretty.....Giddy up!

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0z GEFS are much colder and IMO have the right idea...EPS playing catch up...here are the opening 5 days of DEC...let's get a system or two to ride underneath the Belly of this Arctic Air mass!

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_9.png

 

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Yesterday was a rather pleasant late November day there was 80% of possible sunshine there was no snow or rain fall and the official H/L was 42/18. The day started out with 4” of snow on the ground. The overnight low and current temperature here at my house was(is) 19. There is now just 3” of snow on the ground here at my house. For today the record high is 70 set in 1931. At the current time this is the latest high of 70 or better until March 3rd so it is safe to say we should not see 70 again until March. The record low for today is +2 set in 1956. The record snow fall is 3.4” in 1970.

 

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DFW will have a super soaker Thanksgiving this year. Strong storms and heavy rain on the way to create a wet Weekend.  
Our recent rains, however, have put a huge dent in our drought.  

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current 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Big differences of around 10 degrees in low temperatures across the County this morning. Lower elevation spots below 500ft ASL were well down into the 20's while some higher spots were no lower than the mid-30's. Beautiful weather on tap both today and tomorrow with slightly above normal high temps of just past 50 degrees. Some rain is possible on Friday but not a wash out. A better chance of rain is Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The record high for today is 73 degrees set back in 1931. The record low was the 11 degrees set in 1989. Daily rain record is the 1.30" from 1961. Our daily snow record was the 2.9" that fell today back in 1989.
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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On 11/21/2022 at 7:48 PM, jaster220 said:

Surprised how much survived our 45F and sunny afternoon. Our soil temps had a chance to cool prior to any real snow falling Sat after dark. 

Our <1" of snow from Sat night has not completely gone away despite DTW hitting 51F yesterday around 4 pm under full sun. There was a surprising amount of remnant snow cover in shaded areas this morning. Shows that the ground must've gotten frozen a bit. That small of a snow cover would've vanished quickly sitting on warm ground. Low DP's also helping the cause with a temp in the 50's lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Models are starting to lock in on a storm in the midwest around the 30th/1st.  Time for a thread?  Pretty consistent model runs.  

8 days away is a bit far out for a thread imho regardless of signals.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

8 days away is a bit far out for a thread imho regardless of signals.

I hear ya, but all the models are similar right now.  Beyond that, wave after wave of systems move in.  So plenty of time to sort things out.  Now we just need to get lucky once.  

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm just catching up on all the latest data as I was on a mission yesterday getting all of my errands done at the stores for our holiday feast...my goodness, I'm tickled with excitement to see all the models agreeing on the pattern evolution.  It appear the late month storm is the one that flips the switch as we open up met Winter!  Pretty stoked to see the massive amount of High Lat Blocking popping right when it begins to count.   Hello -NAO...that West-Based Greenland Block is sure pretty.....Giddy up!

image.gif

 

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0z GEFS are much colder and IMO have the right idea...EPS playing catch up...here are the opening 5 days of DEC...let's get a system or two to ride underneath the Belly of this Arctic Air mass!

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_9.png

 

Speaking of which, there are signals for a system around Dec 5-7.  Obviously that is pretty far out in time though.  I think one thing is fairly clear -- this December is not going to have the type of warmth that recent ones have had.  Hopefully we can get some good snow to go along with it.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

At one point, it deepens the surface low by 11 mb in 6 hours.  That would be pretty extraordinary to see for a system not over an ocean, so it probably means that won't happen lol

November storms in the GL region have been known to do this.  Gales of November.  HI res Euro and Canadian bomb it out.  Would be a mostly rain and windstorm here in Southern Michigan.  

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32 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

November storms in the GL region have been known to do this.  Gales of November.  HI res Euro and Canadian bomb it out.  Would be a mostly rain and windstorm here in Southern Michigan.  

Not saying it can't happen.  Just that it's a very impressive rate of deepening.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.thumb.png.756ea05ade46a270280104f174ff9fd2.png

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus-2.thumb.png.c7f8986047b40d9284b566e5dff63ad3.png

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At least it's getting inside of a week and hasn't vanished. Not going to be the exciting snow-maker for most of us in the SE 2/3rds of the Sub, but a robust system nonetheless. Nov-Jan connection could be established as well. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Driving home with 56F and a warm sun after work I was passing some really stubborn patches of snow from our <1" snow-pack. Sure it was melting around the edges, but continues to amaze me anything's surviving. Small lakes are iced over as well. Snow plow piles (the few that there are) certainly lived on to see tomorrow. Strange to see the staying power. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

At least it's getting inside of a week and hasn't vanished. Not going to be the exciting snow-maker for most of us in the SE 2/3rds of the Sub, but a robust system nonetheless. Nov-Jan connection could be established as well. 

 

17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GFS really splits the system up with the northern branch being pretty weak. 

gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-9766400.png

 

gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-9809600.png

gfs-deterministic-central-total_snow_kuchera-9885200.png

As much as I would love to get some snow I'm not buying any of the solutions we've seen so far tonight.  I'm looking for this storm to cut towards Wisconsin and then spin over the lakes for a few days as it gets blocked in.  Something similar to this but a little further south.

image.thumb.gif.21786b4e39665c732e5ff542703feb8c.gif

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12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I've looked into the LRC a bit but it's still pretty a fresh methodology for me. Can it really be used to forecast with that kind of accuracy? Down to matching the same track and strength from a storm 30-45 days ago? If so, that's pretty cool. 

I found this page on his website that shows a ~46% accuracy for the Sioux Falls cell but I don't know if it should be pinpointed locally like that or if it's moreso the overall pattern.

I would say similar but not exact.  The key imo is to be able to factor in teleconections and seasonal variables to figure out how a storm will behave.  But it's a great tool to use to know when storm systems will likely occur.  For instance I used it to predict a storm in the Plains around the 30th awhile back before it showed up on the models.  

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4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty dang impressive for an ensembles mean.

I'll be in Seattle for a business trip during that first full week of December. I don't care how cold it gets but there better not be a huge snowstorm while I'm gone!

gfs-ensemble-all-KFSD-daily_tmin_tmax-9248000.png

Business trip huh... what you house hunting and want to come home? 😀

I would say there's a possibility of a snow storm in the Seattle area during your visit 

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Happy Thanksgiving.

 While I do not know if Christmas will be white this year or not. (Three of the last 4 have been green with 2020 only having one inch on the ground) Anyway we officially will have a white Thanksgiving this year as I still have 1.5” of snow on the ground. Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 49/22 there was no rain or snow fall and there was 96% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here at my house was 25 and that is the current temperature. For today the average H/L is 44/30 the record high of 66 was set in 1931 and the record low of -9 Yes that is right -9 was set in 1950. The record snow fall amount is 9.7” set in 2004.

 

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Happy Thanksgiving all!  We will be celebrating Thanksgiving out here in the PHX valley and it will be a warm and windy one.  Temps will be slightly BN and topping out right around 70F with bountiful sunshine.  I'll be enjoying our Feast with the patio deck open and the smells of the Turkey will be flowing throughout the complex!  I always get asked what I'm cooking and what's for dinner??  Hope everyone enjoys spending quality time today with Family and Friends!  #Grateful 

 

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Happy Thanksgiving to all of you!
After a frosty start, especially in the lower elevation locales this morning... It looks like a great weather day on the menu for today with high temps a little above normal in the mid-50's across the county. It looks like some rain moves in by early tomorrow morning but should be over by 10am. Sun returns by afternoon. More rain on the way for Sunday into Sunday night. After that it looks dry till mid-week with temps averaging a bit below normal on Tuesday.
The record high temperature for today is 69 degrees set back in 1979. Our record low is just 10 degrees in 1989. Record rain is the 2.08" that fell in 1950. The record snow is the 5.3" that fell today way back in 1898. That began what would be the all-time snowiest winter season in Chester County history. By the end of that upcoming winter 1898-99 we would see 95.0" of snow. Our 2nd snowiest winter occurred in 2009-10 when we recorded 86.7" of snow.
image.png.fd6d1328debfc61fd2d41ec415a39686.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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10 hours ago, Clinton said:

 

As much as I would love to get some snow I'm not buying any of the solutions we've seen so far tonight.  I'm looking for this storm to cut towards Wisconsin and then spin over the lakes for a few days as it gets blocked in.  Something similar to this but a little further south.

image.thumb.gif.21786b4e39665c732e5ff542703feb8c.gif

Happy Thanksgiving! Hope everyone can enjoy the holiday in some meaningful way. 

@Clinton That was some kind of crazy combo that I'm reluctant to think will replicate very often. If it does though I can only imagine any version (same or S) would be another exciting scenario for the LES belts. Despite the model portrayal that all of The Mitt got multiple rounds of precip with that system, in fact DTW recorded almost nothing (.09") from that series of shortwaves and associated fronts. The only substantial moisture here in October was on the 31st or it would've gone down as one of the driest months on record. This needs to change as we go into Met winter or I can only presume it will be a cold but unsynchronized winter wrt snowfall around here. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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41 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The GFS continues to remain the debbie downer for the central CONUS. The storm just doesn't have enough oomph.

 

gfs-deterministic-central-total_snow_kuchera-9820400.png

Glorified cold front.  Just cutting into Canada like they all are going to do all season long.   No blocking ever.  

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12z Euro painting the next 10 days as the wettest here in months! Perhaps Nina will finally be coming into play. 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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21 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Could get pretty snowy.

Working on a project with a guy from Mexico. Not only his first time in America, but his fortunately timed visit to The Mitt meant that he got to see snow falling 4 days in a row. The first he'd ever seen in his 38 years of life. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DTX:

Attention then turns to the closed low that was orphaned over the
Desert Southwest by the aforementioned trough dropping into the
Great Lakes. Southern stream begins to phase with the northern
stream late Saturday leading to cyclogensis over the southern
Plains. Mid-range models continue to show good consensus on this
upper trough/associated surface low sliding northeast into the Ohio
Valley and southern Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. Initial edge of
isentropic ascent reaches the state line between 06-09Z Sunday
before expanding over the remainder of SE MI by midday. Nearly
vertically stacked low center looks to track near or directly over
the area latter half of Sunday supporting moderate widespread rain
showers through the evening hours.

Don't see that too often. Lends some credence to the NAM's snowier portrayal. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Look at Charlevoix. Nothing like starting your Thanksgiving morning with 15" OTG! This is really anomalous as that quaint tourist town is right on the water and typically only gets deeper snowpack later in winter. This is one place where last week's LES didn't skip over the shoreline. 

Image

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Happy Black Friday!  The Holiday season is upon us and the most wonderful time of the year is here!  Hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving.  I have so much leftovers that will prob last me a week or more.  Gotta tell ya, the Turkey this year came out great.  It was probably the best Turkey I made...so juicy, tender and delicious.  The 19 pounder will feed me for daysss!

Ok, now back to the weather...as we near the start of Met Winter, Ol' Man Winter is reminding us that he is lurking and making a comeback after a bit of a reprieve.  I would imagine it is well timed for many of you and allow pleasant weather to put up the holiday lights.  I think we should fire up a storm thread later today after the 12z runs for the late month storm.

On a side note, there is a World Cup match today USA vs UK....Go USA!  

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Happy Black Friday!  The Holiday season is upon us and the most wonderful time of the year is here!  Hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving.  I have so much leftovers that will prob last me a week or more.  Gotta tell ya, the Turkey this year came out great.  It was probably the best Turkey I made...so juicy, tender and delicious.  The 19 pounder will feed me for daysss!

Ok, now back to the weather...as we near the start of Met Winter, Ol' Man Winter is reminding us that he is lurking and making a comeback after a bit of a reprieve.  I would imagine it is well timed for many of you and allow pleasant weather to put up the holiday lights.  I think we should fire up a storm thread later today after the 12z runs for the late month storm.

On a side note, there is a World Cup match today USA vs UK....Go USA!  

I agree that a thread will be needed later today.  I am much more in camp Euro than the GFS right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see a little slower and stronger solution show up soon.   What's your thought on this one?

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I agree that a thread will be needed later today.  I am much more in camp Euro than the GFS right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see a little slower and stronger solution show up soon.   What's your thought on this one?

My thoughts are that the lead wave up in S Canada will allow for enough separation of the CO Low to eject out and rapidly deepen as it cuts NNE towards the W GL's.  The southern energy in this years pattern has manifested almost every time to be the strongest player.  I like the set up from @hawkstwelveup through MSP into @Madtown back yard.  Let nature fill up the snow holes bc what is coming after that is what I'm yearning for as the Arctic cold will bleed south 1st week of DEC.

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10 minutes ago, Tom said:

My thoughts are that the lead wave up in S Canada will allow for enough separation of the CO Low to eject out and rapidly deepen as it cuts NNE towards the W GL's.  The southern energy in this years pattern has manifested almost every time to be the strongest player.  I like the set up from @hawkstwelveup through MSP into @Madtown back yard.  Let nature fill up the snow holes bc what is coming after that is what I'm yearning for as the Arctic cold will bleed south 1st week of DEC.

Agree and happy day 1 of cycle 2!

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_3.png

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In regards to the storm at the end of the month the ICON may be about to lead the way again, it's happened several times this season.  I still think this storm will get blocked up and spin around the US/Canadian boarder for a few days as a bit of a Hudson Bay block forms.  If this happens it will unload some artic air into the US and send some disturbances rotating around it.  Lets see if the 2 pieces of energy phase and kinda stall out, 12z runs could be interesting.

icon-all-namer-z500_anom-1669356000-1669658400-1669788000-20.gif

 

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Welcome to Black Friday. I am not sure just when it started being called Black Friday. When I was young if I recall it was called the day after Thanksgiving Day sales. And it was the night that the city of Bay City lite the city Christmas tree. Yesterday was a rather mild day and the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 46/30 there was a trace of rain fall and we had 42% of possible sunshine. The day started with a reported official 2” of snow on the ground. The overnight low here in MBY is the current reading of 38 I had a trace of rain fall overnight and there is just a trace of snow on the ground now (a lot of snow piles are still left) For today the average H/L is 43/30 the record high of 65 was set in 1908 and the record low of -10 was set in 1950 that -10 is also the record lowest reading for any day in November at Grand Rapids. The record snow fall amount of 3.5” fell in 2005. The rest of the weekend looks to be on the mild side before cooling down a little on Monday.

 

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10 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Now the GEM, the one who has been steadfast in a stronger storm, moves to a more southern and weaker solution.

Oh for Pete's peppers...

gem-all-central-total_snow_kuchera-9842000.png

Now you get my frustrations with the models, especially outside of 120 hrs. They're too much of "follow the bouncing ball" treatment to give any real enjoyment. Get things narrowed down to a pseudo consensus and I'll start tuning in at that point. Talking storms affecting The Mitt. I don't follow/post much on systems not affecting home turf. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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