November 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

Going for another record high today of near 80, the record high for today is 78.

[Tom]

21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS targeting Oklahoma with some snow next week, several ensembles also on board with an accumulating snow for @OKwx2k4and @Iceresistance.

 

What a difference in the storm track this season for our southern members.  The #STJ is going to play for them folks!  As long as we have somewhat of a weak SER, your area and the Lower Lakes should do good.  I'm seeing a very good signal for an active storm track throughout our region in the MW.  Very interesting pattern setting up as we speak.

[chescowxman]

A nice couple of normal November days on tap with temps a little below normal today rising to a little above normal tomorrow. Rain moves in on Friday with the remnants of the tropical storm with rain ending by Saturday AM. We could see between a 0.50" to 1.00" of rain.

Below normal chill then sets in by Saturday night and should last for much of the next 10 days as we head toward Thanksgiving.

The record high for today is 78 degrees from 1975. The record low is 19 degrees from 1976. Our daily rainfall record is 2.04" set back in 1962.

[westMJim]

Yesterday I cut the grass and mulched the leaves one last time for 2022. I cleaned out the lawn mower and will park it for the winter today. I also brought out the snow blower and started it up. It was a nice day to do the yard work with an official H/L of 52/34 there was no rain fall and 66% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY with clear skies was 36 and the current reading with clear skies is 39. For today the average H/L is 50/35 the record high of 77 was set in 2020. And the record low of 16 was set in 2003. The record snow fall amount of 4.0” was set in 1984 there was 3.1” in 1926. We are on tap for a couple of very warm mid November days and highs could touch 70 tomorrow. The record high for tomorrow at Grand Rapids is 74 but there is a good chance of reaching one of the warmest day for any November 10^th

 

[Niko]

Accumulating snow for S MI this weekend???!!! 

 

NOAA:

Much colder over the Weekend, as medium range models remain
consistent with the upper level trough moving overhead, and a
northern stream cold infusion form Central Canada leading to 850 MB
temps lowering to around -10 C over the bulk of the Great Lakes
region, which will be plenty cold enough of Lake Effect snow showers.
Still too far out to dive into soundings/exact cape values/inversion
heights/etc. But Sunday there is the 700 MB cold pool of -18 C or
colder progged to move in, which could lead to sufficient cloud
depths/instability to support localized accumulating snow showers.

[Andie]

43 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Yesterday I cut the grass and mulched the leaves one last time for 2022. I cleaned out the lawn mower and will park it for the winter today. I also brought out the snow blower and started it up. It was a nice day to do the yard work with an official H/L of 52/34 there was no rain fall and 66% of possible sunshine.

 

Darn Jim!!  Do you work on contract?   I have plenty of things I need to get done soon!  

Its 65, heavy overcast, fog and damp.  Humidity is 89%.  Temps will hit 79/80 today.  Pretty good Fall day.  We take cool weather any way we can get it.  

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Accumulating snow for S MI this weekend???!!! 

 

NOAA:

Much colder over the Weekend, as medium range models remain
consistent with the upper level trough moving overhead, and a
northern stream cold infusion form Central Canada leading to 850 MB
temps lowering to around -10 C over the bulk of the Great Lakes
region, which will be plenty cold enough of Lake Effect snow showers.
Still too far out to dive into soundings/exact cape values/inversion
heights/etc. But Sunday there is the 700 MB cold pool of -18 C or
colder progged to move in, which could lead to sufficient cloud
depths/instability to support localized accumulating snow showers.

0z GFS took the storm in the Southern Plains up through lower Michigan but the 6z kept it south. 

[Niko]

49 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS took the storm in the Southern Plains up through lower Michigan but the 6z kept it south. 

 

I think your area is in line for some snows next week. As a matter a fact, a couple of inches and so does @OKwx2k4as well stand a shot of wintry weather.

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

 

I think your area is in line for some snows next week. As a matter a fact, a couple of inches and so does @OKwx2k4as well stand a shot of wintry weather.

12z GFS brought it back.

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

What a difference in the storm track this season for our southern members.  The #STJ is going to play for them folks!  As long as we have somewhat of a weak SER, your area and the Lower Lakes should do good.  I'm seeing a very good signal for an active storm track throughout our region in the MW.  Very interesting pattern setting up as we speak.

 

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS brought it back.

Looking like "old school rules" will prove themselves accurate again

[jaster220]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS brought it back.

@Clinton

Can't happen - NOTHING for our Sub, remember?

"Gonna waste the early cold in the lower Midwest with no storms.  Then it will get warm again for the last week of November and early December."

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS brought it back.

The Nebraska snow hole, snow drought, drought, whatever you want to call it, rages on.  

[Clinton]

12z Euro for the storm next week.  Slides it a little.

[CentralNebWeather]

At 3:30 PM, it is 74 degrees with a dew of 57.  About 30 miles NW of me it is in the 30's.  The front has been hanging out across Nebraska all day with little to no movement.  It is supposed to come barreling through overnight.

Edit- The front has moved back north.  Lexington NE, which was in the 30's is now back up to 75 degrees.  Looks like about 75 miles NW of here it is in the 30's.  Very interesting day for sure.

[Iceresistance]

@Black Hole, you may get snow soon!

[Clinton]

I reached a high temp of 79 today, very warm and windy.  Rain tomorrow evening then a great push of cold air.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

Sedalia MO set a new record high of 80 F!! The previous record was 78 set in 1999. #recordwarmth

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

At 3:30 PM, it is 74 degrees with a dew of 57.  About 30 miles NW of me it is in the 30's.  The front has been hanging out across Nebraska all day with little to no movement.  It is supposed to come barreling through overnight.

Edit- The front has moved back north.  Lexington NE, which was in the 30's is now back up to 75 degrees.  Looks like about 75 miles NW of here it is in the 30's.  Very interesting day for sure.

It’s pretty amazing, samething happened to Columbus today! I don’t think I have ever seen something like this happen before. 

[Clinton]

18z GEFS still targeting Oklahoma.  Lots of inconsistency with this storm regarding track and precipitation type but exciting to watch it unfold.

[Tom]

As the CF approached my area, the clouds rolled in at very low elevations.  We had anywhere between .10-.25 of steady rain across the valley.  PHX hit 71F before the front and crashed into the mid 50’s.  It felt like an Autumn day back home but the showers had some instability to them, almost like a snow shower in the winter.  The sun was peaking in and out.  Pretty cool  day.

 

 

[Clinton]

The MJO seems to be having the biggest influence on our weather right now as we are about to feel the influence of phase 7 and 8.  Typically we have about 7-10 day delay from when we enter a phase to when we feel its effects.  The GEFS Ext seems to be doing a  good job with this, showing the cold of phase 7 and 8 and the warmth of phase 6 towards the end of the month.  Could this be a sign that we may enter cycle 2 the last week of Nov?  I think it maybe holding on to the warm air to long as we look to move back into phase 7 around the 24th which should bring back the cold early in Dec.  

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This doesn't look half bad for a lot of the central CONUS...

The GFS has something for everyone in the western half of the sub over the next 8 days.  Hopefully we start to see some consistency, very exciting to see it light up like that tonight though.

[chescowxman]

About a 10 degree difference in temperatures across Chester County PA this morning over just a couple miles based on elevation. For example here in East Nantmeal at ~700 ft ASL we are at 41.4 while down at lake level at Marsh Creek at ~400 ft they are at 32.0...great example of radiational cooling with relative low spots dropping well below the somewhat higher spots.

Temps head back above normal today through Saturday with heavy rain from the tropical storm impacting us starting by Friday AM. Temperatures will then fall to below normal for almost every day through Thanksgiving day which is just 2 weeks from today.

The record high for today is 73 degrees set in 1931. Our record low is 16 degrees from 1973. Daily rainfall record is the 2.05" that fell way back in 1898. The daily snowfall record is just 0.1" that fell in 1987 - that was a storm that ended the following day delivering 4.8" of snow to the County.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another very mild early November day with an official H/L of 59/36 there was a trace of rain fall and 19% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 46 and that is the current temperature. The overnight low at GRR was a warmer 52. For today the average H/L is now down to 50/34 the record high of 74 was set in 2020 the record low of 16 was set in 1957. The record snow fall amount of 3.8” was set in 2018. Todays forecasted high in the low 70’s will make a run at that record high for today.

 

I found this paragraph from today’s discussion very interesting

“OVERNIGHT WE ALREADY SAW THE UNINTUITIVE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES AND   
WIND GUSTS IN FAR WESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF   
MASON COUNTY, IN THE IMMEDIATE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN   
SHORELINE. MUSKEGON AIRPORT'S HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 CROSSING   
MIDNIGHT OF NOV 9TH TO 10TH (A JUMP OF 7 DEGREES BETWEEN 10 PM AND   
MIDNIGHT) WAS INDEED LEGITIMATE DESPITE THE GLERL STATION AT THE   
BEACH/HARBOR BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS LAKE SHADOW WARMING   
EFFECT DESPITE A RELATIVELY COOL LAKE MICHIGAN IS MORE COMMON IN THE   
SPRING DURING SOUTHWESTERLY WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIMES AMID STABLE   
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND A LOW-LEVEL JET RIDING JUST ABOVE THE   
MARINE LAYER. THE ZONE OF WARMING CAN BE SEEN IN SHORTWAVE IR   
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS ZONE ARE NOT   
HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS BUT IT CAN BE INFERRED FROM TODAY'S MODEL   
SOUNDINGS THAT ADIABATIC MIXING OF AIR REACHED THE SURFACE FROM   
ABOUT 800 FEET ALOFT. WORTH AN ACADEMIC STUDY PERHAPS. ANYWAY,   
EXPECT THIS TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES   
AND AREAS FARTHER INLAND TO BE ELIMINATED WITH DIURNAL MIXING TODAY.

[mlgamer]

Sitting at 72 degrees but I'll be in the 40s by noon. As much as I like winter I'll miss the mild temps. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s here for at least the next week or more.

[westMJim]

I now have a reading in MBY of 77 that would be a new record the official reading at GRR is now at 73.

Here some interesting information  from Mlive on long range outlooks

 

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2022/11/see-why-our-long-range-winter-forecasts-now-have-a-complication.html

 

[westMJim]

Record tied at Grand Rapids the latest reading at GRR was 74 and that ties the record for today. At Lansing the latest reading was 75 here at my house I am now up to 77.

[OKwx2k4]

If y'all haven't figured it out, I'm just stupid with giddiness over this coming 10 days.

Like @jaster220 said, this is the "old school" stuff.

Bring it on. Just awesome.

[Clinton]

The recent heavy rains have improved the drought conditions in Missouri.   More rain on the way this evening. 

[Iceresistance]

I'm expecting the possibility of snow tomorrow night, Monday/Tuesday, and late next week!  

[Thunder98]

Dickinson, ND is very frigid right now! 8F with blowing snow and a forecast of -10F Saturday morning!

 

[Tom]

Happy Veteran's Day!  #TGIF  To all the Veterans out there, current and past, I want to Thank you for your service and sacrifice.  We enjoy our Freedom bc of your service.  

It was a beautiful day back home in Chicago as ORD set a new record high for the day (76F).  Hope y'all enjoyed the long stretch of AN days bc it appears Ol' Man Winter is cometh, esp around the GL's/MW region over the next 10+days.  It's sorta weird for me not being there to experience the early onset of cold and snow this year bc of my extended stay in AZ.

0z Euro...

 

 

[Tom]

@OKwx2k4 @jaster220 This is about as good as it can get to deliver the coldest air across the Northern Hemisphere smack dab in our backyard over North America.  My goodness....Hello Polar Vortex!  It's just one run, but how about having some fun?  I will add that the ensembles are in agreement as the Stratospheric pattern setting up should allow for a dislodged PV.

 

 

0z Euro showing a SSW warming event could be on the way over Siberia...PV split by D 10???

[Tom]

Utah's snow pack is off to the races....Sky's the limit as nature continues to deliver the goods...

https://electroverse.co/vancouver-sees-earliest-snowfall-in-31-years-utahs-snowpack-as-much-as-1417-above-normal-frances-electricity-prices-surge/

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a record setting day, records were set at all west Michigan major locations. The new records are 75 at Grand Rapids, Holland, Kalamazoo and at Lansing the high of 76 is a new record. One other item record warmest minimums were set at Muskegon with a low of just 63 and Holland with a low of 56. At Grand Rapids and Lansing the low of 52 was the 2^nd warmest minimum  for the date.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 75/52 There was no rain fall and 91% of possible sunshine. Here at my house I had a high of 77. For today the average H/L is now down to 49/34 the record high of 73 was set in 1909 and the record low of 16 was set in 1987 the record snow fall amount of 5.8” was in 1995.

[chescowxman]

The impacts of Tropical Storm Nicole will move across the area today and tonight....with a cold front then passing the area by very early Saturday morning. We could see between 1" to 2" of rain across Chester County before the front sweeps the rain out to sea tomorrow. Much colder air will build across the area starting tomorrow night with temperatures likely to remain well below normal for most of the time over the next 2 weeks. We may also see our 1st snow chances (at least in the air) on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

The record high for today is 73 degrees set back in 1949. Our record low was the 19 degrees in 1957. Daily rainfall record is the 2.38" from 1995. The daily snow record is the 4.7" that fell today back in 1987.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@OKwx2k4 @jaster220 This is about as good as it can get to deliver the coldest air across the Northern Hemisphere smack dab in our backyard over North America.  My goodness....Hello Polar Vortex!  It's just one run, but how about having some fun?  I will add that the ensembles are in agreement as the Stratospheric pattern setting up should allow for a dislodged PV.

 

 

0z Euro showing a SSW warming event could be on the way over Siberia...PV split by D 10???

0z GFS showed something similar, next weekend and the following week may have some record setting cold.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Sure seems like here in Southeast  Iowa the drought has been beat down big time! Past 13 days ive had 5.98 inches of precip.  Since mid September  over 10.5 inches of  rain!!!!!  Quite a bit above normal for the fall period.. my pond that was dredged in July 2021 is back to its march 2022 level. Last couple  even great runoff (ponds here aren't spring fed). Soil is damp to muddy deep down now. Creeks are steadily  running  again. Very nice!

[tStacsh]

Outside of the last 15 days being well above average, looks like we cool off to more near normal November temps with just a little bit of snow.  Nothing unusual this time of year for Michigan.  Pretty blah pattern coming up.   Some lake effect around the area, but not much here with the wind being too NW for me.  Chance of a mini system wide snow/rain mix next week.  

Don't love "warm ground" and temps above freezing during the day snow events.  Hopefully the pattern repeats itself in actual winter.  Decent start though.  

[Clinton]

High temps look to be 15 to 20 degrees below normal over the next week.  The average high for KC is 58.

NWS Kansas City

Good Friday morning, KC and surrounding areas! The first 10 days of November had been quite warm - 10.7 degrees above normal to be exact! But the party is over as today begins a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures for the area.

[Andie]

48 and a thunderstorm.  
A good bit of rain on the radar.

We won’t see the temperature move much today and that’s fine. Rain off and on. We need to make up for a lot of ground water loss.