Jump to content
The Weather Forums

November 2022 Observations and Discussion


Clinton
 Share

Recommended Posts

36 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Aside from that system, looking pretty bleak for everyone but Andie for awhile. 

Texas looks to catch up on some badly needed precipitation.

Awesome.   We’ll take it any way it will fall.  I had heard light snow with no accumulation but rain is preferable.  
Currently 52   
Low tonight 37. 
High tomorrow 49

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is just dropping the western energy into a hole in Mexico, never to be seen again.

 

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Usual bias…not too worried…there will be a formidable system in the center of our Sub.  All teleconnections point to it and ensemble support.

I don't know if this storm will go get lost in Mexico but I could see the energy cutting off and holding back out west and eject in pieces.  We've seen that before this season.

Map from Oct 7th:  We had a sky high PNA

image.thumb.png.9478799e4a60f2f4b37cfde0f04984c8.png

Map valid Nov 25th we have more of a neutral PNA.  You'll notice both maps have a trough over the lakes also.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_59.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

I don't know if this storm will go get lost in Mexico but I could see the energy cutting off and holding back out west and eject in pieces.  We've seen that before this season.

Map from Oct 7th:  We had a sky high PNA

image.thumb.png.9478799e4a60f2f4b37cfde0f04984c8.png

Map valid Nov 25th we have more of a neutral PNA.  You'll notice both maps have a trough over the lakes also.

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_59.png

Good job looking back at the wx maps.  I have not dived in deeply into the pattern.  That does look like a good match.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Good job looking back at the wx maps.  I have not dived in deeply into the pattern.  That does look like a good match.

It's still a ways out but the models have been showing this off and on for the last 4 or 5 days.  I think cycle 2 is almost here.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15F Windchill and SHSN making this evening feel more like quality Dec out there. Brrr

  • Like 5

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's still a ways out but the models have been showing this off and on for the last 4 or 5 days.  I think cycle 2 is almost here.

Good call. The euro had the right idea from this range in my book and agreeing that there's not been a diving cutoff die out over Mexico this year, should be nice to watch. 

Appear to see the longer range shades of old pattern with upper air features over the northeast as well. 2 good clues for super long range.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just took a snow fall measurement and here in MBY there is now 5.5" of snow on the ground. I am sure much more has fallen. But with the warm ground it has really compacted and is more like synoptic snow then lake effect.  It is very wet and as I said 5.5" on the ground and just over 2" on the road. And it has been reported that Grand Rapids public schools are closed for tomorrow.  The record snow fall for today is 7.1" set in 1989. For tomorrow the record is 9.6" in 2014.

  • Like 4
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Just took a snow fall measurement and here in MBY there is now 5.5" of snow on the ground. I am sure much more has fallen. But with the warm ground it has really compacted and is more like synoptic snow then lake effect.  It is very wet and as I said 5.5" on the ground and just over 2" on the road. And it has been reported that Grand Rapids public schools are closed for tomorrow.  The record snow fall for today is 7.1" set in 1989. For tomorrow the record is 9.6" in 2014.

Last squall put me at 6.2” on the grass average.  I’m guessing we’ve had about 9-10” with these squalls.  The rates are impressive when it snows.  The wind has been pretty light.   Roads are awful as they’ve all iced up.  
 

one more big squall should drop an inch before it quiets down for a bit.  

  • Like 5
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, westMJim said:

Just took a snow fall measurement and here in MBY there is now 5.5" of snow on the ground. I am sure much more has fallen. But with the warm ground it has really compacted and is more like synoptic snow then lake effect.  It is very wet and as I said 5.5" on the ground and just over 2" on the road. And it has been reported that Grand Rapids public schools are closed for tomorrow.  The record snow fall for today is 7.1" set in 1989. For tomorrow the record is 9.6" in 2014.

Hopefully the wetter character of the snow will freeze over and support a good foundation for the snow cover.  Could it last for the into DEC?  It's looking encouraging that the GL's region is in the vicinity of the colder air as blocking develops.

@OKwx2k4You getting Snow this morning?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A new record snow fall amount for November 17th was set at Grand Rapids with 7.1” of snow fall. The official H/L yesterday was 32/26 to go with that record snow fall 0.43” of total precipitation fell. There was just 1% of sunshine. For today the average H/L is 46/32 the record high of 70 was set in 1958 and 2016 the record low of 11 was set in 1959. The record snow fall for today is 9.6” set in 2014. Here at my house I now have a temperature of 27 with light snow falling there is now 6.4” of snow on the ground here and the road here is snow covered with 3” of snow on the road. At Grand Rapids the total snow fall for November is now at 11.1" the record for any November is 31.0" in 2014. Of that 27.8" fell in a 5 day event that November.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I was just gonna say, those are some bone chilling temps out there in the Plains!  Novembrrrrr!

@CentralNebWeatherin the single digits also...

image.png

My gauge says we got down to 6 degrees.  The lowest wind chills I could find were around -13.  Dang chilly.  Just wish we would have had a blanket a snow to really tank it.  Oh well.

  • Shivering 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lake effect off and on continues today with a few more inches.  Tomorrow it really gets going again.  Expecting another 4-6" saturday through saturday night, with windier and more drifting and drier snow.    Good bet I end up with 12-16" total (low end prediction actually)  by Sunday.  Not quite 2014, but a rare event for this time of year indeed.    Hopefully we get some big storms this winter.  

  • Like 5
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Increasing clouds this afternoon with temps reaching around 40 degrees - this is about 10 degrees below normal. It does look like some snow showers or even a heavier snow squall will be possible moving from west to east across Chester County between 4pm and 7pm this evening. Any heavier bands could put down a quick coating to 1" of snow - this could make roads slick in spots - so be careful if out and about this evening. Even colder weather will follow for this weekend. It appears some higher spots in the county may not get above freezing on Sunday with lows near 20 degrees by Monday morning.
Our record high for today is 77 degrees from way back in 1896. The record low is 12 degrees set in 1924. The daily rainfall record is 1.21" from 1929. Our daily snowfall record is 1.0" from 1955.
image.png.34f1f89ab2dc5daf9e553f24b9a5ac5b.png
  • Like 1

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted here is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop and spotter observed climate data for the county.  We make no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply any post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the NWS observers.  Climate change is natural and is not leading to future calamity. Specifically the Chester County PA analysis has only yielded normal and expected cyclical warming and cooling trends since the 1880's. Any model predictions of catastrophic climate change are not science. Pay little attention to data derived from climate models. To date we have yet to validate even one predicted climate or weather event attributable to climate change. Climate science is only advanced by continually questioning it and challenging it based on the actual climate data. 

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.4" to date) - 02/01 (0.2") / 1/31 (0.1") / 01/25 (0.8") / 01/23 (0.5") / 12/23 (0.5") / 12/15 (0.3" ) / 2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and the #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

NWS Trained Observer   image.png.c611f1f0b6407e819c29024d2b740944.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I know December is still a way's off, but the models seem to be hinting at some warmth again this year.  Correct me if I'm wrong about that.  KC hasn't had a BN December (for temps) since 2017, and 7 of the last 10 years have been above normal.  Would really like to see a wintry December for a change.  

 

The climate models? Those things always lean towards warm. Trust MJO and all that other stuff more. This forum is cold biased and climate predictions are warm biased, you just have to make your own conclusions and not trust anything blindly. Not to mention it's weather, how often are meteorologists right? And who can blame them when people expect them to predict the future with 100% accuracy?

cansips_z500a_us_1.png

  • Like 3
  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I know December is still a way's off, but the models seem to be hinting at some warmth again this year.  Correct me if I'm wrong about that.  KC hasn't had a BN December (for temps) since 2017, and 7 of the last 10 years have been above normal.  Would really like to see a wintry December for a change.  

 

CFSv2 trends looking better....might start off warm by you and points east, but then it'll turn much colder for our Sub as a whole come mid month...that's the way I see at this point.  MJO in Phase 7 and teleconnections all support a colder DEC for a lot of us on here compared to what we've been used to the last 3+ years.

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202212.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Clinton said:

 

I don't know if this storm will go get lost in Mexico but I could see the energy cutting off and holding back out west and eject in pieces.  We've seen that before this season.

Map from Oct 7th:  We had a sky high PNA

image.thumb.png.9478799e4a60f2f4b37cfde0f04984c8.png

Map valid Nov 25th we have more of a neutral PNA.  You'll notice both maps have a trough over the lakes also.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_59.png

Today's EURO/GFS both show the cut-off Baja trough and the Northern Stream energy that produces a CF and swoops up the cut-off trough just like it happened back on Oct 6th-10th.  LRC cycle showing signs of a 47-48 day cycle?

 

image.gif

 

image.gif

 

Interestingly, back in my notes I put down a west-based -NAO developed 10/14 - 10/20 and the models are picking up on it by Nov 30th into early DEC.  Let's see how this evolves over the next week or so.

 

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Today's EURO/GFS both show the cut-off Baja trough and the Northern Stream energy that produces a CF and swoops up the cut-off trough just like it happened back on Oct 6th-10th.  LRC cycle showing signs of a 47-48 day cycle?

 

image.gif

 

image.gif

 

Interestingly, back in my notes I put down a west-based -NAO developed 10/14 - 10/20 and the models are picking up on it by Nov 30th into early DEC.  Let's see how this evolves over the next week or so.

 

This is what you wrote back on Oct 6th and it was a darn good analysis.  You should take a victory lap!  It looks like weather wise it's all there as well.

This will be a long post and cover a broad spectrum of the developing OCT wx pattern.  They say, "What happens in OCT, Cycles Back in DEC"...friends, what I'm seeing evolving this month is eye candy for literally all of us on this Sub.  Even though I'm out here in the deserts of Arizona, where it is still Summer in my book, I'm getting tickled with excitement at the data I'm reviewing.  The models tend to struggle Bigly during the change of seasons and none morse than now.  

Today, on average, marks the 1st day of the new LRC pattern.  We won't know when Day 1 is until later on this calendar year but I feel pretty confident that we are experiencing the 1st days of the new pattern.  The cut-off trough in the SW is a big clue, the developing NE PAC/W NAMER ridge is another one, the Trough N/NW of Hawaii is HUGE, and then the lower heights that stretch all the way from Baja of Mexico into the southern GOM states add confidence that an active STJ will be part of the Long Term Long Wave pattern.  Those that live over the southern 1/2 of the Sub must be rather intrigued with this developing pattern.  I'll be honest, I've been watching this region closely bc we haven't seen something as such in a number of years.

Nearly all the models are all showing a similar jet stream pattern for the southern edge of the U.S...2 things that stand out....1) Split Flow over the West. 2) N Caribbean Ridge (not the GOM Ridge we have seen before)....if you fast forward this jet pattern in the winter months when it shifts south...look out...#ActiveSTJ...all day...SW Flow will combine with Tropical moisture.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A Cold And Dry (CAD) December would be a 1989 flash-back. I was living in SEMI back then too. The bitter WC's stick in my mind and a lack of synoptic events. Unless you lived in a LES-belt, which like this current situation then you raked-in bigly. Just checked KFNT, KDTW, and U of M Ann Arbor to refresh the old memory. Sure enough, the month was repleat with under 2" snows. The rare exception was down here where both AA and DTW squeaked out a 3+ event early in the month. It was cold enough tho so that by the holiday week there was a White Christmas. Even edged-up to a 5-7" depth right after Boxing Day. Meanwhile, places benefitting from the correct NNW wind flow like Traverse City had a 28" depth for Santa's visit on the 25th.  

  • Like 1

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z GFS not givin up on a system, but back to a rainer here with a good snow for MN/NWI/WUP. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_27.png

  • Like 1

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM showing my best shot yet at a piece of the LES pie. Has snow flying around here for about 5 hrs Saturday evening. 

181352186_NAM12k22-11-1818zh28-35.thumb.gif.259cc0a2b60d3f57990bd5f85f58be79.gif

Has up to .15" qpf. With the high ratio LES fluff factor, it could be a 2" type event like they had last night in the northern most burbs. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They pulled out all precip in No Tx’s forecast for a week.  
The so-called flurries that were forecast and all precipitation is no more. 
We’ll see highs in 50’s and lows in 30’s. 
Yawn. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Tom said:

Today's EURO/GFS both show the cut-off Baja trough and the Northern Stream energy that produces a CF and swoops up the cut-off trough just like it happened back on Oct 6th-10th.  LRC cycle showing signs of a 47-48 day cycle?

 

image.gif

 

image.gif

 

Interestingly, back in my notes I put down a west-based -NAO developed 10/14 - 10/20 and the models are picking up on it by Nov 30th into early DEC.  Let's see how this evolves over the next week or so.

 

I dug into the pattern hard today and the 12z GFS and Euro line up perfectly with a  48 to 49 day cycle.  Digging through my October data that should bring a nice storm to the middle of the country around Nov 30th.  Tomorrow will bring that into the 10 day window son lets see if the models pick up on it in the next 48 hours.  I have to admit Dec 7th time frame has my attention.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Temps are dropping tonight, it's already down to 15 at my house.  KC broke a record today that had held since 1903.

 
***RECORD*** Well our weather here in Kansas City may not be as impressive as what is happening in Buffalo, NY but, we are still breaking records here! The record cold high temp for today was 29 set in 1903...today we broke that by only reaching 28 degrees!
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Temps are dropping tonight, it's already down to 15 at my house.  KC broke a record today that had held since 1903.

 
***RECORD*** Well our weather here in Kansas City may not be as impressive as what is happening in Buffalo, NY but, we are still breaking records here! The record cold high temp for today was 29 set in 1903...today we broke that by only reaching 28 degrees!

It's brrrr out there. 11F WC here in the metro will make Tuesday's 44F and sunny feel like FL

  • Like 1

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Temps are dropping tonight, it's already down to 15 at my house.  KC broke a record today that had held since 1903.

 
***RECORD*** Well our weather here in Kansas City may not be as impressive as what is happening in Buffalo, NY but, we are still breaking records here! The record cold high temp for today was 29 set in 1903...today we broke that by only reaching 28 degrees!

Even in the far west we are getting record lows and we just got brushed by this beast of an airmass.  Olympia WA dropped to 17 this morning for a record low.  East of the Cascades some places are already in the single digits tonight.  Pretty exciting stuff for this early!

  • Like 8

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Even in the far west we are getting record lows and we just got brushed by this beast of an airmass.  Olympia WA dropped to 17 this morning for a record low.  East of the Cascades some places are already in the single digits tonight.  Pretty exciting stuff for this early!

This map says it all.

gfs_T2ma_us_1.png

  • Like 3
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has just stated the grid from the North to South border could be under undo strain with a strong freeze this year.  
 

I’ve prepared as best as possible.  You might review your preparations. If this occurs again down south it will have broad affects in many areas.
 

I hope for all of you north this does not manifest.  Nevertheless, get ready. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 30/23. There was 0.27” of total precipitation, 7.0” of snow fall and just 3% of sunshine. The two-day snow fall at Grand Rapids is now at 14.6” and for the month of November it is now at 18.2” Here in MBY I recorded 2” of new snow overnight and there is now a total of 11.5” on the ground. There would be more on the ground, but the ground is still warm and there is melting taking place from the bottom of the snowpack. The overnight low here in MBY was 23 and the current temperature is 24. For today the average H/L is 46/32 the record high of 74 was set in 1930 and the record low of 9 was set in 1986 the record snow fall for today is 4.3” so we have a good chance of setting a new record for today.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As I stated last night I'm looking for a storm to show up towards the end of the month, this would correlate to what we experienced around Oct 11th and 12th.  The 0z Euro Control and GFS both are now showing a storm around the 30th, at this time it doesn't look like much but I expect that to change.  Some blocking will be setting up between now and then and a big dip in the AO and NAO will combine with a phase 7 MJO.  This will have the potential to produce a major winter storm somewhere in the central plains and will set the stage for what I  believe could become a very cold December in the middle of the country.

1669809600-YL8NU5SUDAQ.png

1668816000-8LNpEmXQgmYgrb2.png

1668816000-4TEbCHYLSfAgrb2.png

GEFS.png

On the 11th and 12th of October this system produced a fast moving line of storms that produced between a .25 to 1 inch of rain through the plains with the highest totals in SE Nebraska.

Morning Rain

 

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This morning's low of 24.7 is the coldest reading since the 24.0 low temperature back on March 30th. Most spots in the county will stay in the 30's today and fall back into the low 20's tonight. Tomorrow will be colder with some spots barely making it to freezing for high temperatures. We will start a slow warming trend starting Monday with temps getting back to near normal in the upper 40's by Thanksgiving Day. Our next chance of rain will be on Thanksgiving night.
Our record high for today is 74 degrees set back in 1913. The record low was 12 degrees from 1924. Daily rain record is 1.74" from 1988. The daily snow record is the 3.0" that fell today back in 1955.
image.png.cbf9b232d1b7d546a235aabfdddc28ee.png
  • Like 1

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted here is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop and spotter observed climate data for the county.  We make no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply any post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the NWS observers.  Climate change is natural and is not leading to future calamity. Specifically the Chester County PA analysis has only yielded normal and expected cyclical warming and cooling trends since the 1880's. Any model predictions of catastrophic climate change are not science. Pay little attention to data derived from climate models. To date we have yet to validate even one predicted climate or weather event attributable to climate change. Climate science is only advanced by continually questioning it and challenging it based on the actual climate data. 

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.4" to date) - 02/01 (0.2") / 1/31 (0.1") / 01/25 (0.8") / 01/23 (0.5") / 12/23 (0.5") / 12/15 (0.3" ) / 2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and the #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

NWS Trained Observer   image.png.c611f1f0b6407e819c29024d2b740944.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Parts of New York have 65 inches of snow from the lake effect snow!

Having lived through almost 120” of total snow n the ground after Illinois’ 1978 blizzard, I am in total sympathy. Whatever will deep winter bring?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...