November 2022 Observations and Discussion

[MIKEKC]

Another .64 inches of rain last night, WOW! A very wet last 3 weeks. OVER 5 inches of rain in my part of the city in total. Due to the very warm fall here, grass is greener now then it was in Sept. Grass still growing..the cold coming might put an end to that.

Sure hope when these cycle back through in the winter we see big snows..

 

A couple of snow chances here or nearby as we head towards Turkey week, we'll see how it all plays out. 

[Clinton]

46 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Another .64 inches of rain last night, WOW! A very wet last 3 weeks. OVER 5 inches of rain in my part of the city in total. Due to the very warm fall here, grass is greener now then it was in Sept. Grass still growing..the cold coming might put an end to that.

Sure hope when these cycle back through in the winter we see big snows..

 

A couple of snow chances here or nearby as we head towards Turkey week, we'll see how it all plays out. 

Big change from where we were in Sept and first half of Oct.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCityWe are officially 1/3 of the way through November and it is already the 16th wettest November on the 135-year record at Kansas City. If we have normal precipitation the rest of the month we'll finish 7th.

[Clinton]

12z GFS brings down a shot of artic air a week from today.  Along the front some forcing produces some snow in the plains.

[MIKEKC]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS brings down a shot of artic air a week from today.  Along the front some forcing produces some snow in the plains.

Don't give up Monday night's chance of snow....something is there on the data..

We have a 10 day period of cold here, let's see if we can score our first accumulating snow!!!

[Andie]

Temps dropped this morning.  
46-47 now with rain. Some heavy.  
This will remain till mid afternoon, so a good soaking. 

[Niko]

It looks interesting next week w that potent wave coming outta the SW. Too early for any details, but bears watching.

 

In the meantime, cold weather is here to stay once it arrives. Sunday nite lows here in mby have a shot of dropping into the teens. 

[jaster220]

Just amazing that Nicole's precip shield insists on stopping JUST shy of SEMI, even with a CF coming in from a few counties west. You'd think that normally would be a magnet to pull moisture into it!

Not only could we use the moisture around here, I'd be absolutely livid if that were a huge area of snow. Our luck so far in this new LRC sucks quite frankly wrt any moisture. If this remains into winter I'm heading to Nebraska for comfort.

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy Veteran's Day!  #TGIF  To all the Veterans out there, current and past, I want to Thank you for your service and sacrifice.  We enjoy our Freedom bc of your service.  

It was a beautiful day back home in Chicago as ORD set a new record high for the day (76F).  Hope y'all enjoyed the long stretch of AN days bc it appears Ol' Man Winter is cometh, esp around the GL's/MW region over the next 10+days.  It's sorta weird for me not being there to experience the early onset of cold and snow this year bc of my extended stay in AZ.

0z Euro...

 

 

Looks like early season UHI for the loss both in yby and over my way here in Motown. Tis the season, thus you have no reason to come back to the MW - yet

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

@OKwx2k4 @jaster220 This is about as good as it can get to deliver the coldest air across the Northern Hemisphere smack dab in our backyard over North America.  My goodness....Hello Polar Vortex!  It's just one run, but how about having some fun?  I will add that the ensembles are in agreement as the Stratospheric pattern setting up should allow for a dislodged PV.

 

 

0z Euro showing a SSW warming event could be on the way over Siberia...PV split by D 10???

Remember when I said "it looks like the cold will play on our side"? That's the book definition right there bud! Giddy-up

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

This must be some kind of cruel joke. Two different maps, both with literal snow holes over my singular county.

Okay, that is just MEAN!

[Niko]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Just amazing that Nicole's precip shield insists on stopping JUST shy of SEMI, even with a CF coming in from a few counties west. You'd think that normally would be a magnet to pull moisture into it!

Not only could we use the moisture around here, I'd be absolutely livid if that were a huge area of snow. Our luck so far in this new LRC sucks quite frankly wrt any moisture. If this remains into winter I'm heading to Nebraska for comfort.

That would have been such a good soaker for us amigo. What a sharp cut-off. Can you imagine this was a major snowstorm missing us like this. Lord have mercy!!!!

[westMJim]

Not sure how long it will last but there is blue sky to the west and northwest at this time. It is now 45 with that clearing to the west and northwest.

[Iceresistance]

I got snowflakes flying at my house!

[Hawkeye]

It appears we won't even make it to 30º this afternoon. 

[Andie]

Wow!  The front came through with real attitude.  
It’s 43* at 4:30.  
Our rain totals will vary but I was in a couple heavy downpours.  
Official is .50”, but I believe there was 

[james1976]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

The arctic front that is being depicted for next week looks really interesting. Whenever one of these (usually a modified arctic front) would work it's way down the Western WA lowlands it always threw a few surprises our way. Normally that would be the snow totals end up higher than modeled due to more precip along the front or having it get hung up somewhere for a while as it worked down. Point being - these are notoriously hard for the models to latch onto correctly, at least over there.

Not sure if they behave the same on this side of the country or not but something to keep in mind!

You bet. Just made a quick comment on this in the other thread. Looks like a true arctic front and will likely have some snow with it. MPX saying highs may only be in the teens on Friday. Possibly 2 rounds of light snow mon-wed and then this on Friday. Great early start to winter!

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Outside of the last 15 days being well above average, looks like we cool off to more near normal November temps with just a little bit of snow.  Nothing unusual this time of year for Michigan.  Pretty blah pattern coming up.   Some lake effect around the area, but not much here with the wind being too NW for me.  Chance of a mini system wide snow/rain mix next week.  

Don't love "warm ground" and temps above freezing during the day snow events.  Hopefully the pattern repeats itself in actual winter.  Decent start though.  

Not a fan of warm ground snows either but I'm pretty storm-starved after the past two dud winters. So if some snow is forced on us I will manage, lol. Things could trend upwards for both of us. I stand by my call for a much better LES winter. 

[jaster220]

3 years ago this evening I was clearing 7" of fresh snow off my driveway in Marshall. I think this area (Detroit) actually had about 9" and the most reported from that hybrid storm was 14".  Then some LES regions along Lake Michigan saw up to 36" of snow immediately following. That was quite the Vet's Day for The Mitt. Unfortunately, the early bout (much like 2014) led to a warm winter with very low snowfall the rest of NDJ. 

[james1976]

Looking at the models and extended forecast, this really feels like the kind of November I always experienced as a kid in the 80s. Seems more like a classic start to winter. We'll see how it goes but I love the quick start. Let's keep it going. @Tom you better get back to Chicago soon!

[Andie]

At 5am I’m at 34*
The NWS had issued a freeze warning, however we didn’t reach it in the DFW area. 
We can’t be far away however.  

[Tom]

Outstanding early season Arctic Air targets the N Rockies/Upper MW where a combination of a deep snow pack and an Arctic HP overhead tanked temps to some bone chilling lows!  Can't say that I didn't see this coming...won't be long till other members on here see temps like these next month.

[Tom]

A much more promising start to Winter for the S MW and esp over in INDY where they have been experiencing lackluster winters.  Nice looking wave of SN for them folks!

 

[Tom]

@Iceresistance Love seeing Flakes flying down south this early in the season!  T

 

[Tom]

I recall reading blogs written by Gary Lezak a few years back when he first witnessed repeating snowstorms that targeted OKC one winter season back in the 80's when I believe he lived there while going to college.  This was the beginning of his passion behind the cycling weather pattern he now calls the "LRC".  Could this be another banner winter for that area that sees repeating snowstorms?  IMHO, it is certainly pointing that way.

[Tom]

This is some serious cold for the Lower 48 over the next 6-10 day period....wanna escape the BN temps???  Head to the Key's of S FL or MIA!  I don't recall seeing the entire nation with BN temps in the middle of NOV.  #ShareTheWealth...say's Ol' Man Winter

[Madtown]

Hey Tom and others. How big of a warm up do we see that first week of Dec? Trying to decide on when to flood the school rink. Money and time involved so it's a little more mission critical than my backyard rink 

[Clinton]

17 minutes ago, Tom said:

This is some serious cold for the Lower 48 over the next 6-10 day period....wanna escape the BN temps???  Head to the Key's of S FL or MIA!  I don't recall seeing the entire nation with BN temps in the middle of NOV.  #ShareTheWealth...say's Ol' Man Winter

No real end insight, the GFS Ext really cooled in the long range on last nights run.  Temps in a few weeks may get back to normal or slightly above for the western half of the sub only to cool back off again.  The eastern half just stays cold.  This will be some long lasting cold and we will see it a few times this Winter!

[Tom]

15 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Hey Tom and others. How big of a warm up do we see that first week of Dec? Trying to decide on when to flood the school rink. Money and time involved so it's a little more mission critical than my backyard rink 

Not much of a warm up in your neck of the woods, primarily focused over the central Plains and MW region towards the end of NOV.   IMO, there will be a pretty stout trough across the Eastern CONUS in early DEC from what I'm seeing.

[Tom]

19 minutes ago, Clinton said:

No real end insight, the GFS Ext really cooled in the long range on last nights run.  Temps in a few weeks may get back to normal or slightly above for the western half of the sub only to cool back off again.  The eastern half just stays cold.  This will be some long lasting cold and we will see it a few times this Winter!

Yes, that's what I'm seeing to and by the time we get towards DEC 1st we'll have a better handle on the LRC.  BTW, are you seeing a 31-33 day harmonic cycle?  The wx pattern this coming week looks very similar to what happened back on OCT 10th-20th.  Seems like we are getting the same ol' blocked up trough over the N GL's/Ontario region that spun lobes of polar air over the GL's/MW/Upper MW and a series of disturbances along with a Cross Polar flow pattern.  Add to that the stout W NAMER/AK ridge.

[Clinton]

Cloudy, cold and windy with a few flurries this morning.  My first flakes or at the first ones I was awake for anyway lol.  Currently 25 with a wind chill of 14.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Cloudy, cold and windy with a few flurries this morning.  My first flakes or at the first ones I was awake for anyway lol.  Currently 25 with a wind chill of 14.

It's always nice to see your first flakes on a cold and windy day!  You should cool the ground temps a bit before the next snow chance and help with accumulations.

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

Yes, that's what I'm seeing to and by the time we get towards DEC 1st we'll have a better handle on the LRC.  BTW, are ypou seeing a 31-33 day harmonic cycle?  The wx pattern this coming week looks very similar to what happened back on OCT 10th-20th.  Seems like we are getting the same ol' blocked up trough over the N GL's/Ontario region that spun lobes of polar air over the GL's/MW/Upper MW and a series of disturbances along with a Cross Polar flow pattern.  Add to that the stout W NAMER/AK ridge.

Yes and by my count this is the 4th time in this years LRC that has produce a cross polar flow and/or a setup that will allow that to happen later this winter.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Yes and by my count this is the 4th time in this years LRC that has produce a cross polar flow and/or a setup that will allow that to happen later this winter.

PV Split still being advertised per the Euro...

[Clinton]

22 minutes ago, Tom said:

PV Split still being advertised per the Euro...

Now we just need a storm system to hit the west coast around then, looks like the models are hinting there may be one in the 10-12 day range

[westMJim]

As happens occasionally in the cold seasons the high yesterday was just after midnight and the low was just before midnight. That official H/L at Grand Rapids was 59/34 there was no rain fall and just 6% of possible sunshine. The overnight low was that 34 at the current time both here and at GRR is 35. For today the average H/L is 49/34, the record high is 68 in 1902 and the record low is 15 set in 1911 and 1986.   The record snow fall amount for today is 3.6” in 1997. November 12^th is the 1^st day that the record high is under 70 since March 10^th  Of note last year today Grand Rapids had 1.2” of snow fall.

The lake snow for this weekend looks to stay west and southwest of my area. So far no snow at all here.

[CentralNebWeather]

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

A much more promising start to Winter for the S MW and esp over in INDY where they have been experiencing lackluster winters.  Nice looking wave of SN for them folks!

 

DTX says it's tracking enough NW of earlier models that it will/may clip SEMI. Should be a mixy mess during day-time warm hours but could see MY 1st flakes personally as I missed the official squall last month that hit DTW

[jaster220]

@Niko INCOMING??  Could be a sweet surprise on tap.

 

What a NEG-tilted shortwave can do:

 

Special Weather Statement

---

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
931 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2022

INZ008-009-017-018-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-
025-121745-
Noble-De Kalb-Whitley-Allen IN-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
Including the cities of Kendallville, Ligonier, Albion, Auburn,
Garrett, Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Fort Wayne,
New Haven, Logansport, Royal Center, Peru, Grissom AFB, Mexico,
Wabash, North Manchester, Huntington, Roanoke, Bluffton, Ossian,
Decatur, Berne, Marion, Gas City, Upland, Hartford City,
Montpelier, Portland, Dunkirk, Bryan, Edgerton, Wauseon,
Archbold, Swanton, Delta, Defiance, Sherwood, Hicksville,
Napoleon, Deshler, Liberty Center, Paulding, Antwerp, Payne,
Ottawa, Leipsic, Columbus Grove, Continental, Pandora, Van Wert,
Ohio City, Lima, and Spencerville
931 AM EST Sat Nov 12 2022

...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING...

Snow will move through this morning and will be heavy at times,
with snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour expected. This will result
in areas of slippery travel. Total accumulation of 1 to 2 inches
is expected. Motorists need to be alert for changing travel
conditions.

This area of snow has a history of reducing visibility to 1/2
mile and falling at a rate of 1 inch per hour. Numerous slide offs
have been reported in the greater Indianapolis area.

[chescowxman]

Total rain over the last 2 days was 0.93" with 0.10" falling today since midnight. We have already recorded our high temp for today of 67.1 at midnight. Becoming sunny and breezy today with temps falling back into the 50's by sunset. More showers and much chillier late tonight with temps in the low 40's by Sunday AM. Our temps will now remain well below normal for most of the next couple weeks. There is also a chance of some rain later Tuesday night and I suspect some higher elevation areas in Chester and Berks counties over 600ft ASL could see our first few flakes of the season mixing in with temps in the mid 30's.

Our record high for today is 76 way back in 1912. The record low is 15 degrees set back in 1926. The daily rainfall record is 1.40" from 1970. Our daily snow record is 2.8" today back in 1968.

[jaster220]

May this be the start of a winter full of positive surprises for the OHV & S GL's.

STL was completely shut-down by the surprising strength during the Bliz of '82.

STL --> DTW connection is a good one.