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November 2022 Observations and Discussion


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13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Anywhere near a river? In a lowland area like me? Terrain in SEMI slopes downward from the "ridge" a county N and NW of here to the Detroit river. I will suffer down-sloping anytime there's snow coming from those directions. Last winter I watched twice as really potent squall line (1 even got the formal Squall Warning) was blasting it's way due S right at mby, only to pull a vanishing act as it reached 1/2 a county north of here. 

Interesting points. This caused me to take a deeper dive into South Dakota geography.

Turns out, there is a higher plateau just to the north of Sioux Falls called 'Coteau des Prairies' which can reach upwards of 2000+ ft. It runs from the NE corner of South Dakota down into SW MN and NW IA. Sioux Falls (blue circle) is at one of the southern bases of this Plateau, which is also the start of the Dissected Till Plains that runs from Missouri up through NE, IA, MN, and SD. The SSW portion of this Plateau comprises the Buffalo Ridge in Minnesota, which is a distinct region that can generate it's own weather (higher winds, higher snow, etc.) versus surrounding areas.

Now put this in the context of the flow over the past week - a fairly strong NNW wind with systems dropping down out of the NW. This would put Sioux Falls on the leeward side of the Plateau, which I could see causing some downsloping winds and drying effects. On the contrary, the NW side of the Plateau (orange circle) would benefit from upslope. This actually gets picked up in high-res models like the HRDPS below that shows a small section of 2-3 inches falling in that same area. 

I guess when you think of South Dakota you think it's all flat with little variation. Come to find out, that is certainly not the case!

image.png

1668740400-RBMUysZAGU8.png

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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The above geography is probably a part of the reason why the largest snowstorms to hit Sioux Falls have come out of the south instead of from the north. The composite below shows the average sea level pressure during the middle of our largest 20 snowstorms. The warmer, moist SW winds advect more significant moisture into the area which can counteract the downsloping winds off the Plateau, which are actually coming more out of the NE in the below scenario. This flow might also lead to some upslope over Sioux Falls if the cards played out right.

I suppose I now know which direction I want to ideally shoot for when tracking winter storms!

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/fssnowstormcomposite

Mean sea level pressure maps for the middle of snowstorms in Sioux Falls.

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1 hour ago, Jarod said:

I think they are being pretty cautious. Every time we get a westerly lake effect event this early in the year it way over-performs wherever the dominant band sets up. I think someone will end up with a foot. If the winds shift around, usually this is somewhere in Zeeland to hudsonville which seems to be where the axis usually is as long as the flow stays somewhat westerly.  Either way this should be a nice early lake effect event for once.

Curious to see how the models perform.  While we certainly are not the long fetch of Lake Ontario, it can dump here with the right set up.  

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When you fellas said the US would have a real winter you called it right, even for the far north on the East Coast. 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/feet-of-snow-to-bury-buffalo-as-potentially-historic-lake-effect-event-looms/1278208


 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

The above geography is probably a part of the reason why the largest snowstorms to hit Sioux Falls have come out of the south instead of from the north. The composite below shows the average sea level pressure during the middle of our largest 20 snowstorms. The warmer, moist SW winds advect more significant moisture into the area which can counteract the downsloping winds off the Plateau, which are actually coming more out of the NE in the below scenario. This flow might also lead to some upslope over Sioux Falls if the cards played out right.

I suppose I now know which direction I want to ideally shoot for when tracking winter storms!

https://www.weather.gov/fsd/fssnowstormcomposite

Mean sea level pressure maps for the middle of snowstorms in Sioux Falls.

called a Texas Hooker. She rains here ( C.IA)  most times, but when just E as depicted  -- that Hooker is prime.... Most times- the Hooker scores big time for the SW MN / SE SD.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Hey hawkstwelve-

Was in Sioux Falls over the weekend for my sons cross county meet- nice town!!! Like a smaller DSM, easily could live there.

Well a belated welcome to Sioux Falls! We absolutely love it here. Everyone is so welcoming and nice, plus you have just about any shopping, restaurant, big box store, etc. that you could possibly need. Convenience of a big city but with a small town vibe. Perfect combination, IMO. Hope you get to visit again soon!

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

The Thanksgiving time storm is back on the 12Z GFS after disappearing for the last 2 runs.  I'll keep watching the trends, but hopefully some much needed moisture for our area.

Hope this brings a solid CO Low across the Sub...blocking setting up over Canada could be ideal!

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Forecast highs for today have taken a step back from 32F to 26F for DSM under stratus and a brisk NW wind with CAA.  IN fact, if the 27F (just after midnight holds) it would be the 5th coldest high for Nov 16th on record. I heat with wood. Burning today like a typical Jan day.

image.thumb.png.fc6d18c3e03be1db0761120ef404fad4.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Buffalo NY is the place to be in the coming days. They will get feet of snow (3-6').

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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Here is a sneak peak of what Thanksgiving Day weatherwise will look like: but this could change.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/thanksgiving-weather.jpg?w=632

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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@jaster220correct me if I am wrong bud, but is Marshall under a WSW.  😬

GRR going all out. Usually they are very conservative!

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/dtx.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Current forecast through just saturday morning.  More accumulations likely Saturday night/ Sunday.

2039786450_snowfallforecast.thumb.png.04bb89fb66af7a295a660f5559ffb86d.png

What is "telling" on their map is they have 8+ well into Eaton Cnty, 6+ south side of Lansing. Buckle-up anywhere west of there back to within about 5 miles of the lakeshore. Looking like my former In-law's city of Plainwell is ground zero with early maps showing 12+. December of 1990 there was a bliz centered over EWI and the backside LES dumped 27" there in 2 days. Once in a while they will get slammed. 

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 minutes ago, Niko said:

@jaster220correct me if I am wrong bud, but is Marshall under a WSW.  😬

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/dtx.png

Good call. Yes, tho as I said earlier, we had one in Nov 2014 and the winds were not favorable. I got just 2" fluffy inches. l have seen GRR go full-county warning for LES events multiple times over my 2 decades living there when the impacts were limited to the NW 1/3 of the county. They should do the Severe Wx limited warning cone in most cases but they're too lazy it seems to get accuracy along 94. 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A shorty on the BIG ONE. Could it be Chi-town's turn again??

The Great 1967 Chicago Blizzard - YouTube

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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35 minutes ago, Niko said:

@jaster220,

6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Current forecast through just saturday morning.  More accumulations likely Saturday night/ Sunday.

2039786450_snowfallforecast.thumb.png.04bb89fb66af7a295a660f5559ffb86d.png

 

10 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Curious to see how the models perform.  While we certainly are not the long fetch of Lake Ontario, it can dump here with the right set up.  

 

25 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Lake Michigan is still in the mid to upper 50’s.  This could be epic for some areas

 

26 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

 

Here are some of the bigger November snow events at Grand Rapids with a warm Lake and a west wind. November 15/20 2014 27.8". November 3/7 1951 23.4" November 2/5 1991 17.2" November 18/21 2000 17.1". Of course it is way too early to tell if this year will play out to anything near what happened in those years but they are the bench mark for November snow events. 

 

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IWX on tonight's current LES Warning (I seriously cannot keep up with everything, and I'm not even getting much, lol)

This favors a relatively large band of 6+ through nrn Laporte east
across SBN and north through wrn/cntrl Cass and all of Berrien.
Inside that should be an smaller inner band pushing 12 inches within
a wrn South Bend, Michigan City, Baroda triangle.

 Caught my attention since my former director in St. Joseph lives in Baroda. Its a legit "one horse town" as they used to say. 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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21 minutes ago, westMJim said:

 

@westMJim Thank you Jim, you just read my mind. 

Was also thinking about bigger/biggest Nov snows for those of us outside of the LES belt, especially over on this side in SEMI. 

I can't imagine (or recall) anything that would rival the large coverage of 11-22-15 (a Nino autumn). Nearly 18" in hardest hit areas about a county NW of metro Detroit. 

SnowWebGraphic_20151121_0800.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From APX. Looks like both my former residences in NW & SWMI will be under Warnings. Maybe Squall Warnings per this:

Just
looking at soundings, with low level lapse rates possibly exceeding
8 degrees C/km, this will be conducive for the development of
locally intense snow squalls spreading across areas south of M-55 in
the afternoon, which can lead to rapid drops in visibility and quick
accumulations on roadways, which may lead to dangerous conditions on
area roads and expressways.

To clarify, "south of M-55" is not even traditional LES belt turf. 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not that I'd want to be caught in such dangerous travel conditions (nearly got ran over by a semi going north on US-131 when I lived up in TC), but this would could be wild. 

Farther north, as this boundary pivots
and turns more west-to-east, weak flow coupled with lake heating
processes will allow for the potential repeated development of
mesolows across northern Lake Michigan, which will slowly move
inland later in the day on Thursday. If these mesolows can develop,
they will be capable of producing impressive snowfall rates, perhaps
is excess of 2"/hr in the best developed bands. This too will lead
to rapidly falling visibilities across the Grand Traverse Bay
region, the Tip of the Mitt, and potentially northward across the
Straits. Make no mistake about it, the timing of this could coincide
with the evening commute, along with those traveling northward for
the first weekend of hunting season, which is a recipe for
significantly slowed and even dangerous commuting across northern
lower and parts of eastern upper Michigan Thursday afternoon into
the evening.
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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Good info thanks!   1991 was one of my first early season le snow events as I was 11 years old.  

If you want to see the real break-down of meteorology, don't look at a GRR AFD. Go to ANY other office for that detailed intel:

Forecast soundings display an impressive environment in place with nearly dry
adiabatic lapse rates and saturation extending through the depth of
the troposphere. With forcing through the DGZ, large flake sizes and
efficient snowfall is anticipated with any activity -- especially
within dominant banding. Thus, it would be no surprise to see double-
digit snowfall totals, rapid drops in visibility, and dangerous
travel at times across the aforementioned area from Friday evening
into Saturday.

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gonna b some 3 footer reports in NMI by the looks of things. This starting to remind of the Dec '01 mega LES outbreak. That one was a full 7 days though, and brought places like Petoskey 84" (yeah, 7 feet!) during that period. I was in S. Bend then and the WSW wind vector meant we sat on the sidelines. 

All things considered, it is not out of the
question for localized areas that experience multiple rounds of snow
late this week through the weekend to get snowfall totals in excess
of 24" by Monday.
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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Lake Michigan is still in the mid to upper 50’s.  This could be epic for some areas 

Cant imagine having a forecast for feet of snow and then suddenly you get a slight change in wind flow and end up w/ very little snow. Suicide warnings will be posted immediately.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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I think the Thanksgiving storm has gotten colder! Could be some major changes for some.

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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12 minutes ago, Niko said:

Cant imagine having a forecast for feet of snow and then suddenly you get a slight change in wind flow and end up w/ very little snow. Suicide warnings will be posted immediately.

I think my biggest let-down in that regard was the very hyped Dec of '01 LES blitz. I was in S. Bend then and just presumed we'd we in on that. Well, the winds went WSW and never switched from that for all 7 days! We got absolutely NADA. On that wind direction, you have to go across the state line into SWMI (where they did very well). 

I am planning to visit fam this weekend. I'm thinking a slight detour to at least see some #realsnow may be in the works. 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

I think the Thanksgiving storm has gotten colder! Could be some major changes for some.

Last I heard, it was looking like a warm rainer but I think it's too early to know really

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Last I heard, it was looking like a warm rainer but I think it's too early to know really

My forecast calling for rain, but temps are colder. Maybe blocking will show its presence and models are starting to see it. Time will tell.

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23

Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22: 2.5" Above Average /Normal is 1.9"

Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.9"

Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.9"

Feb '23:

(Season is @ 18.7")

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It is now becoming apparent that the models are digesting the -NAO block and the emergence of a sweet looking Hudson Bay Block that is "seeding" the cold over the GL's region by Turkey Day.  Should be fun seeing the various model solutions for what may be a PAC Hybrid Clipper phasing with a southern Low somewhere over the OHV/Lower Lakes region.

 

Trends off the EPS...the appearance of the Hudson Bay Block....

 

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Both the 0z Euro/EPS have significantly cooled the eastern Sub around Thanksgiving...+ trends for those winter wx fans!

 

 

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0z Euro Op 10mb forecast suggests to me that the pattern looks favorable for sustained cold over Eastern North America.  That's a pretty map right there.

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A couple light flurries have been around this morning. Breezy and colder today. Our temperatures will be staying below normal till warming to near normal as we approach the Thanksgiving Holiday.
The record high for today is 76 degrees from way back in 1896. The record low is 9 degrees from 1933. The daily rain record is a whopping 3.40" from 1935. The daily snowfall record is 1.0" from 1980.
image.png.d02585d98782cb90b91990bbeb437b21.png
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DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted here is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop and spotter observed climate data for the county.  We make no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply any post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the NWS observers.  Climate change is natural and is not leading to future calamity. Specifically the Chester County PA analysis has only yielded normal and expected cyclical warming and cooling trends since the 1880's. Any model predictions of catastrophic climate change are not science. Pay little attention to data derived from climate models. To date we have yet to validate even one predicted climate or weather event attributable to climate change. Climate science is only advanced by continually questioning it and challenging it based on the actual climate data. 

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.4" to date) - 02/01 (0.2") / 1/31 (0.1") / 01/25 (0.8") / 01/23 (0.5") / 12/23 (0.5") / 12/15 (0.3" ) / 2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and the #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

NWS Trained Observer   image.png.c611f1f0b6407e819c29024d2b740944.png

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Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 34/29 there was 0.03” of precipitation, 0.4” of snow fall. There was no sunshine at 7 AM there was 3’ of snow on the ground. The overnight low here in MBY was 24 when there was some clearing. At the current times it is 29 with light snow falling and there is around 1” of snow on the ground here. For today the average H/L is 47/32 the record high of 70 was recorded in 1953 and 1958 the record low of 9 was recorded in 1959. The record snow fall for today is 7.1” in 1989 there was a 6.0 snow fall in 2014. We will see how the next few days compare to past big November snow fall events. The snow fall has really picked up here and now I am getting moderate snow fall.

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12 hours ago, Niko said:

My forecast calling for rain, but temps are colder. Maybe blocking will show its presence and models are starting to see it. Time will tell.

Hello blocking??

gfs_ref_frzn_ncus_31.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Legit 20's and all puddles iced over here this morning. Even some quite large and deep close to work. Getting the warmth out of the ground that's for sure.

And the old school rules complete the circuit with these maps:

1788162659_2022-11-17NOAAD1SurfMap.png.fdded774a4a16a95ff4e639f68b7694d.png

1692482075_2022-11-17NOAAD2SurfMap.png.4f8c6363c53d9f1ddb5b2e375169f212.png

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The MJO forecast is eerily similar to November-December 1983 and 1989. We could have a monster cold wave (or multiple reinforcements) for December and the CFS model is showing a active mid to late December. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is just dropping the western energy into a hole in Mexico, never to be seen again.

Usual bias…not too worried…there will be a formidable system in the center of our Sub.  All teleconnections point to it and ensemble support.

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