11/3 - 11/6 | Horrible Tornado Outbreak in the Southern Plains from a D1 Moderate

[Iceresistance]

@OKwx2k4@Black HoleAnd I, prepare for a very heavy rainfall event to start in November!

 

Looks like that @Andie will miss out on the heaviest of the rain, but severe storms appear to be more likely down there!

[jaster220]

@Tom or any Mod - pls pin this thd

Euro says there shall be a clash of seasons and develops a strong SLP in W Superior down to 969 mb

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom or any Mod - pls pin this thd

Euro says there shall be a clash of seasons and develops a strong SLP in W Superior down to 969 mb

 

 

That's a pretty beastly little storm there, no doubt.

[Clinton]

This is going to be a big time soaker for KC folks and myself.  GFS and Euro showing heavy rains that will put a big dent in the drought around KC.  Is our area a developing hotspot in this years LRC?

GEFS and EPS 

[Tom]

All I gotta say is....Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!  Boom!

 

The higher terrain here in AZ should get a good amount of snow and put some smiles onto the faces of winter wx fans!

[Black Hole]

The GFS/CMC came in really wet on the 12z runs again (3-6"). ECMWF and UKMET are still pretty wet but nothing crazy (1-3"). Either way should be some nice wetting rains. As anybody should, I will lean towards the ECMWF/UKMET combos for now as they are generally better models and most of the ensemble means are in that range too. 

[Iceresistance]

@Black HoleWhatever you do, don't look at the 18z GFS model!

[Hawkeye]

There are major changes on the GFS.  48 hours ago the GFS had the upper low over New Mexico Saturday evening.  24 hours ago it had it over Oklahoma at the same time.  This evening it has the upper low over Iowa at the same time.

[Clinton]

The 0z GEFS and EPS continue to show big rainfall amounts for the middle part of the country.  KC looks to be in a great spot for this one as the storm intensifies overhead.

The 0z ICON pulls in enough cold air for some snow on the NW side of the storm.

 

[Clinton]

Big storms still looking likely across Oklahoma and Texas on Day 3 and 4.

[Hawkeye]

Models are all showing potential for a band of 2-3" of rain through Iowa Friday/Saturday.  Most models have it to the nw of Cedar Rapids, from sw through ne Iowa.  The UK has it a bit farther southeast.  It will depend on how far southeast the front sags before the low rides northeastward along it.  As always, I'm hoping for at least an inch.  Two inches would be great.

[gabel23]

This is starting to look like another swing and miss for Nebraska. Storms get firing too late as the cold front pushes through too fast. Forecast went from 2-3" possible with the passage to maybe a .25" to possibly nothing. Not a good start to the LRC for my area. Still haven't seen precip going on 3 months. 

[CentralNebWeather]

18 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

This is starting to look like another swing and miss for Nebraska. Storms get firing too late as the cold front pushes through too fast. Forecast went from 2-3" possible with the passage to maybe a .25" to possibly nothing. Not a good start to the LRC for my area. Still haven't seen precip going on 3 months. 

I'm with you.  Looks like another miss to the southeast.  My amounts have gone down considerably also.  It has been a frustrating last 12 months.

[Hawkeye]

The new Euro is close to the model consensus.

[Iceresistance]

QPF has increased for @Andie, 2-3 inches now possible for DFW!

[Clinton]

18z GFS hitting mby with some 3+ inch amounts.  GEFS ensembles look to be a little west of the operational.

12z EPS

18z GEFS

Several GEFS members developing a band of snow on the backside.

[Hawkeye]

The heavy rain band continues to inch eastward.  Tonight's models are bulls-eyeing my area.  The GFS is lowest at 2.8".  The GDPS, UK, and Euro are showing 4".  It's still a few days away, though, so more shifting is possible.

[Hawkeye]

I was becoming increasingly excited for the heavy rain Fri/Sat.  All the morning models continued to show the 4" band right through Cedar Rapids.  However, the Euro just said hold on as its eastward shift is not stopping.  The real heavy band (3-5") is now east of me.  I also worry that bands of heavy rain and storms tend to end up farther east and south than expected.

[Iceresistance]

@Andie

Rare update to Day 3 Outlook with an Enhanced Risk added just east of DFW.

[Andie]

Luckily I’m west of DFW but I’m expecting a good deal of rain.   
 

We had a gorgeous day today. Really perfect.  It’s 73* and calm. Tonight low of 63.   78 tomorrow.  Perfect for us.  

[gabel23]

This can’t be right it was darn near 80 today and we don’t get precip in Nebraska…..

[Tom]

Getting a nice downpour over here…wasn’t expecting anything until tomorrow.  4-6” of SN is being forecast up in the mtn’s and some spots may get close to 10”.  Everyone is stoked to see highs in the 60’s.  Tomorrow’s daytime highs only forecast to be in the 50’s.  If we don’t reach a daytime high of 62F tomorrow PHX will set a new record for the coldest high temp.

[Grizzcoat]

Last several runs of the Euro have back side snow Sat morning for Iowa--- 18Z Euro- very likely will not transpire but would be cool seeing a few flakes and NWS discussion(s) has mentioned it.

[Hawkeye]

The NAM is well nw of most other models.  The big difference is 00z to 06z Friday evening.  That's when other models have a heavy band of rain over or just east of Cedar Rapids.  During that same period, the NAM has nothing in the same area.

The 3kNAM is even more wildly different than the Euro.  They two models have the surface front in the same position, near the Quad Cities.  The Euro just has the heavy rain band barely nw of the front while the NAMs have it way nw.

[Clinton]

6z GFS with a narrow strip of heavy snow early Saturday.

0z Euro a little further east. 

[Clinton]

Severe weather risk for tomorrow.   Big storms for @Andie

[Tom]

@Hawkeye @OttumwaSnomow @bud2380 And the rest of the E IA crew are going to get rocked by heavy, thundery rains…there is going to be a firehouse of heavy precip blossoming along the frontal boundary.  You guys looking good at chipping away from your precip deficits.

[Hawkeye]

The RAP and HRRR are now getting in range.  They are trending just east of Cedar Rapids for the max band.

[james1976]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Hawkeye @OttumwaSnomow @bud2380 And the rest of the E IA crew are going to get rocked by heavy, thundery rains…there is going to be a firehouse of heavy precip blossoming along the frontal boundary.  You guys looking good at chipping away from your precip deficits.

Can we get this 2 months from now?

[CentralNebWeather]

Just sad at this point for most of Nebraska.  We went from predictions of 1-2" earlier this week to 0.  I've at least had a little moisture in the last month, but many have had practically nothing for 3 months or longer, including @gabel23

[gabel23]

Yep, just horrible luck and it continues @CentralNebWeather. Congrats to everyone getting the much needed precip. 

[jaster220]

43 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Can we get this 2 months from now?

No!

That's what I was thinking about this one last autumn. But ofc nothing remotely close came around during #winter..

 

[FarmerRick]

[Tom]

Cold front knocking on my doorstep…mountains snows falling!  

[Hawkeye]

18z HRRR

12z Euro

[bud2380]

5 hours ago, james1976 said:

Can we get this 2 months from now?

It seems like the trend this year around these parts has been heavy rain events followed by prolonged periods of dry weather and then rinse and repeat every so often.  Maybe we'll get the same with snow storms this winter and get a couple of big ones.  That would be nice.  It's been a really long time around these parts since we've had what I would consider a really major winter storm.  

[Andie]

High of 80 today. Very windy 16-32 mph, and big changes on the way.
 

DFW is in an enhanced storm area.  High winds, potential for hail and possible rare November tornado. 
Rain tomorrow.  
77 with Low of 48. 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Andie said:

High of 80 today. Very windy 16-32 mph, and big changes on the way.
 

DFW is in an enhanced storm area.  High winds, potential for hail and possible rare November tornado. 
Rain tomorrow.  
77 with Low of 48. 

The Dew Point is in the upper 60s for DFW, it's 64°F for the Dew Point for my area right now. (Just increased again)

And my gut is telling me that something nasty is coming tomorrow . . . 

[Clinton]

Omaha could see its first snowfall of the year.  GFS and other models have been consistent with a narrow band setting up on the west side of the storm.

18Z GEFS has lots of drought relief for KC area up through Iowa.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

It seems like the trend this year around these parts has been heavy rain events followed by prolonged periods of dry weather and then rinse and repeat every so often.  Maybe we'll get the same with snow storms this winter and get a couple of big ones.  That would be nice.  It's been a really long time around these parts since we've had what I would consider a really major winter storm.  

Dec of 2012 bliz comes to mind. Has there been another since that I'm not recalling?

[jcwxguy]

Hope this is right

 

Quote

Tonight

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 37. North northwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 41. North wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night

Rain showers likely before 1am, then rain and snow showers likely between 1am and 4am, then snow showers likely after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

[jaster220]

..and suddenly

[bud2380]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Dec of 2012 bliz comes to mind. Has there been another since that I'm not recalling?

I seem to recall a pretty large storm around here in 2015, I'd have to double check, but I think I have an 11" recording in my records for a storm around that time frame.  And certain parts of the state have been hit hard from time to time, but not so much in eastern Iowa and MBY.  I believe we went 3 years without a 6" snowfall in the Iowa City area.  We have had a couple 6-8" snows in the last 2-3 years so nice storms, but nothing too out of the ordinary. 

[bud2380]

The 18z Euro is in agreement with the 18z GFS of some snow falling in western Iowa.  I'm posting 10:1 maps to get an idea of the areas that may see flakes, but obviously I wouldn't anticipate this to verify.

 

[Clinton]

0z Euro and 6z GFS still showing widespread 1-3 inch rainfall amounts through the KC area.  For some this will be the largest rainfall in over 4 months.

[Clinton]

Another storm for KC peeps to mark down on the Calendar.  Look at how this storm strengthens and becomes negatively tilted as it moves through MO, it should be a fun one to track as we move through the Winter.  6z Euro puts the heaviest rain right through the city.

[Clinton]

Big temp change in the last hour in KC.

 

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Temperature in KC last hour: 70 Temperature this hour (7AM): 52

[Tom]

Out of all the reporting stations out West, Park City, UT takes the cake yet again!  I knew my intuition was saying something back in the summer when I visited the area a few months ago.  Mother Nature was speaking when the Monsoon season was delivering.  What a Winter this area has in store for this season!

 

[Tom]

Very pleased to see Big Bear in SoCall got their first snows of the season...another powerful trough to deliver more early next week!  Keep the storm parade coming. @IMoveALot_Weather Can you see the snow on the peaks?

 

[Hawkeye]

We could get anything from 1-4" out of this event.  Models are shifting the max band(s) around each run.  The 00z GFS had 3.7" here, but the 06z 2.2".  The 00z Euro had 4", but the 06z only 2" as the max band is farther nw.  A few short-range models are fluctuating wildly, with one run showing 3" and the next 1".  There could be one max band to my northwest and another to the southeast.  It's nowcast time.  I'm really hoping for 2".  Less than that would be a disappointment.