Hawkeye Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 This event has been pretty disappointing here in Cedar Rapids. We are at about 1.35", so it's not a huge bust or anything, but I was hoping for much better. Twice as much has fallen west of CR. Except for a heavy downpour that dropped the first 0.30" this morning, it has been nothing but light to very light rain with an occasional, brief moderate burst. The yellows and oranges on radar have consistently faded as they move into the CR area. It has just been way too light. I'm not even sure we'll make it to 2". We'll probably need a couple good downpours Saturday morning ahead of the low and then a bit more from the backwash. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 Not sure what most were expecting with this event-- but most long term climo sites in C/SE IA have set max precip records for 11/4 and many totals will be over 2" when the event ends. Considering the avg precip for most locales in C/SE Iowa for Nov has allready been exceeded -- and nearly all over % of normal since SEPT 1st-- I guess I''ll take it compared to the last several months. Here is DSM climo (not including today-- which will push totals well over 2".) Not bad at all. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 132 AM CDT SAT NOV 05 2022 ................................... ...THE DES MOINES IA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 4 2022... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1878 TO 2022 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 69 1206 AM 75 1909 54 15 54 2016 MINIMUM 38 306 PM 4 1991 35 3 37 AVERAGE 54 44 10 46 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 1.65R 1.28 1959 0.08 1.57 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 1.65 0.30 1.35 0.00 SINCE SEP 1 6.20 6.26 -0.06 7.13 SINCE JAN 1 27.32 33.36 -6.04 26.57 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 0.4 1910 0.1 -0.1 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.0 SINCE SEP 1 0.0 0.7 -0.7 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.7 -0.7 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 6 hours ago, Clinton said: Rain is finished here I received 2.1 inches. Quite the rain for KC today with some 3 inch amounts on the SE side of the city. Things have turned wet here the last 2 weeks, I've received 4.3 inches since Oct 23rd. US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri 21 minutes ago Today we broke the daily record rainfall for KC with 2.43". The previous record for today was 1.65" set in 1956. This tops the normal rainfall for all of November which is 2.00". Today is also the 5th wettest November day on the 135 year record. Oh and this is the most rain we have seen in one day in the last 157 days... The last time it rained this much was May 31st when 2.96" fell. Nature flipped the switch in a hurry! Glad to see many on here have been blessed with a lot of moisture. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 2.44 now east side Ottumwa Iowa. Ground is becoming quite saturated for first time in months. Some streams no doubt running for first time since may. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 This is about as good as it can get for your 1st Winter Storm of the Season for the Ski Resorts of CO. Mind you, this is where most of the snow melt will derive from and flow into the CO river for AZ/NM. I got a feeling that this Summer the lakes and reservoirs will fill up a bit. Keep it coming! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 ..and over here it's winds for the win. Glad to see you guys getting rain where it's needed even more. DTX: Model consensus is for the cold front/850 MB Theta-E ridge axis to clear southeast Michigan around 00z Sunday. Diurnal mixing today, as high temperatures reach around 70 degrees (supported by latest guidance), should allow for southerly winds gusting into the 45 to 50 MPH range, as we tap into the 45-55 knots noted at 925 MB level. 850 MB winds are even more concerning, with 65-70 knots of flow noted. Surface based instability has trended up just a bit in the 00z NAM, with capes advertised to reside in the 100-200 J/kg range. With enhanced shower development right along the cold front, there remains concern for localized damaging wind gusts of 60 MPH in the 21-01z time window. EQL levels remain well below -20 C, and even comfortably below -10 C, so expecting a thunderless line of convection. Ideally, we should get some lead shower activity developing ahead of the cold font with the isentropic ascent/moisture advection which would help lower temps/stabilize the low levels just a bit to keep wind speeds with the frontal passage sub-severe. Confidence is not high in avoiding isolated 55-60 mph gusts, but at least leaves are pretty much off the bulk of the trees, which should help limit tree damage. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 7 hours ago, Clinton said: @mlgamer @Jayhawker85 @someweatherdude looks like you guys may see some flakes early in the morning. Just got moderate snow alert in my weather app. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 @KCSmokey just posted this as well, but the comma head is rotating nicely through the area this morning. This would have made for a nice major winter storm if cold air had been in place. I have not seen any snowflakes and have a current temp of 37.4F. Assuming a middle of the road LRC cycle of 50-55 days would bring this system back at Christmas or a few days after. White Christmas anyone? Of course the storm will likely look different in future cycles so maybe not as good... 4 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 49 minutes ago, mlgamer said: @KCSmokey just posted this as well, but the comma head is rotating nicely through the area this morning. This would have made for a nice major winter storm if cold air had been in place. I have not seen any snowflakes and have a current temp of 37.4F. Assuming a middle of the road LRC cycle of 50-55 days would bring this system back at Christmas or a few days after. White Christmas anyone? Of course the storm will likely look different in future cycles so maybe not as good... I'm getting some additional rain here not sure if I will see a flake. Seems to me the surface low is tracking further SE than what was forecasted. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 1 hour ago, KCSmokey said: Just got moderate snow alert in my weather app. 1 hour ago, someweatherdude said: Some very wet slushy flakes are falling at my house right now. First flakes of the season! Video and a pic of the light dusting: IMG_4778.MOV 1.55 MB · 2 downloads How did you guys do on rainfall? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 I didn't see any snowflakes but my storm total was 2.4" of welcome rain. 4 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 Big bust here lol. Not much rain and no snow at all and clear skies this morning 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Big bust here lol. Not much rain and no snow at all and clear skies this morning Yeah another disappointment here… picked up 0.40” of rain in my backyard (far from the 1” to 2” that was forecast) and no snow at all. Feels like we are stuck in a pattern that we can’t break around here… the drought is definitely winning as the good moisture keeps getting shunted south and east. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 Found some footage of the damage, all from last night. I will be watching for the first light drones. Idabel, OK Simms, TX to New Boston, TX Powderly, TX (North of Paris, TX) 3 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 I'm sitting at 1.99". The area of backwash precip should be enough to put me over 2". 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 First Light Drone over Idabel, OK 2 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 We had a very bumpy day yesterday and a good deal of damage as the front picked up energy in the east of the state in that warm gulf air. Ft. Worth dodge the bullet this time but clouds were very scary. We’re currently 52* headed for 68. Absolutely gorgeous and crystal clear! Tomorrow we’ll see 80* Storm video ://nbcdfw.app.link/I2BZJwMbIub 4 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 Drone footage of the aftermath from Powderly, TX 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 4 hours ago, Hawkeye said: I'm sitting at 1.99". The area of backwash precip should be enough to put me over 2". My final rain total is 2.06". We ended up in a relative dry pocket, with more rain west and east. 3-3.5" fell just west and nw of Cedar Rapids. Of course I wanted to be in the max band, but I'm satisfied with 2". 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 at .6 for the day....if it only was 7 degrees cooler it'd be 20" of snow over the 2 days 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 Had 2.02" when I left home earlier. Still had the last band to go through so may have tacked on a bit more. Up in MN now. This would have been an awesome winter storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 How can you be THIS close to a Rain-Wrapped Tornado and not being hit by it!? 3 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 One of the best headlines for my CWA during this event: CF rains/winds are hitting here pretty hard as well attm. Special Marine Warning Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 627 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022 LHZ421-422-060000- /O.CON.KDTX.MA.W.0049.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/ 627 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022 ...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT... For the following areas... Inner and Outer Saginaw Bay... At 626 PM EDT, showers were located along a line extending from 7 nm southwest of Gravelly Shoals to near Bay City Liberty Harbor to near Quanicassee, moving northeast at 50 knots. HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 50 knots. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Boats could suffer significant structural damage in high winds. Small craft could capsize in suddenly higher waves. Locations impacted include... Quanicassee, Port Austin, Bay City Liberty Harbor, Caseville, Bay Port, Gravelly Shoals, Sebewaing, The Mouth Of The Saginaw River and Pinconning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected. && LAT...LON 4391 8396 4392 8389 4399 8384 4398 8376 4400 8373 4399 8368 4402 8369 4405 8366 4405 8358 4419 8356 4418 8300 4404 8299 4397 8308 4395 8324 4369 8346 4367 8354 4355 8367 4365 8394 4368 8396 TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 214DEG 49KT 4389 8368 4370 8370 4356 8377 HAIL...0.00IN WIND...50KTS $$ Behnke 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 7 hours ago, james1976 said: Had 2.02" when I left home earlier. Still had the last band to go through so may have tacked on a bit more. Up in MN now. This would have been an awesome winter storm. This will be an awesome winter storm, we'll see this setup a few times over the Winter, congrats on the rain! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 A "mini" squall line passed through NE IL yesterday in NE IL and produced some severe winds... http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=25&interval=5&year=2022&month=11&day=5&hour=10&minute=35 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 I only had 0.41" from the storm but there areas with 3+" not too far away. I saw severe reports of 2-3" spikeball hail within an hour or so of here based on the pictures but not sure how it got logged. I think we were up to 5 or 6 confirmed tornadoes in the Tulsa CWA as of last night with more surveys to do. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 14 hours ago, Tom said: A "mini" squall line passed through NE IL yesterday in NE IL and produced some severe winds... http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=25&interval=5&year=2022&month=11&day=5&hour=10&minute=35 The wind threat certainly materialized, eh? That was a nasty imbedded squall line for NEIL. For DTX's area I am surprised at several 60+ reports. 000 NWUS53 KDTX 060242 LSRDTX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1042 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0548 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW ADRIAN 41.87N 84.08W 11/05/2022 M66 MPH LENAWEE MI ASOS ASOS STATION KADG ADRIAN. 0547 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE FREELAND 43.53N 84.08W 11/05/2022 M63 MPH SAGINAW MI ASOS ASOS STATION KMBS SAGINAW. 0951 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE ROMULUS 42.23N 83.33W 11/05/2022 M61 MPH WAYNE MI ASOS ASOS STATION KDTW DETROIT WAYNE. 0655 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW MONROE 41.93N 83.42W 11/05/2022 M60 MPH MONROE MI AWOS AWOS STATION KTTF MONROE. 0635 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE BAD AXE 43.78N 82.98W 11/05/2022 M59 MPH HURON MI AWOS AWOS STATION KBAX BAD AXE. 0820 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N RANKIN 42.97N 83.75W 11/05/2022 M54 MPH GENESEE MI ASOS ASOS STATION KFNT FLINT. 0557 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE SALINE 42.22N 83.73W 11/05/2022 M53 MPH WASHTENAW MI ASOS ASOS STATION KARB ANN ARBOR. 0622 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W WATERFORD 42.67N 83.42W 11/05/2022 M51 MPH OAKLAND MI ASOS ASOS STATION KPTK PONTIAC. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 7, 2022 Report Share Posted November 7, 2022 So, all in all, storm here in far eastern Oklahoma dropped 3 inches or so of rain and produced some wild wind damages in a few places north and immediately south of me. Parts of Northwest Arkansas are under repair now. It was a wild storm. We'll see if we are close enough to the winter months for the Ozarks lore to prove true that it will snow in a week. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 The rainfall has been great for my area lately. The last 2 weeks have 1-3 inches above normal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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