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11/3 - 11/6 | Horrible Tornado Outbreak in the Southern Plains from a D1 Moderate


Iceresistance
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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

We could get anything from 1-4" out of this event.  Models are shifting the max band(s) around each run.  The 00z GFS had 3.7" here, but the 06z 2.2".  The 00z Euro had 4", but the 06z only 2" as the max band is farther nw.  A few short-range models are fluctuating wildly, with one run showing 3" and the next 1".  There could be one max band to my northwest and another to the southeast.  It's nowcast time.  I'm really hoping for 2".  Less than that would be a disappointment.

Your going to do really good...I wouldn't worry...this type of set up has all the classic signs of a heavy precip event for E IA.

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15 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The Dew Point is in the upper 60s for DFW, it's 64°F for the Dew Point for my area right now. (Just increased again)

And my gut is telling me that something nasty is coming tomorrow . . . 

We’re braced.  The real harm starts at the Ft Worth line but it’s east of me I’m concerned about.  Hail and tornados should be east.  I’m hoping we just see rain. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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29 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Got a whopping .01" of precipitation.  Right now it is cloudy and 31 degrees with a wind chill of 21.  Missed again for most of Central Nebraska.

My digital gauge reads .15". It's my biggest rain event since Sept. 10th......when I received 1.63". Just crazy how long it's been since I have experienced anything more than a half an inch. 

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12 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Wow, intense hail storm just hammered the SW side of CR.  I've never seen it come down like this.  It accumulated on cars and in the grass, it was so loud.  Very cool.  

Wow, great!  The hail core just barely missed me to the southeast, but I did get heavy rain(0.33").

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season snowfall: 16.6"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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75* and we’re under a severe thunderstorm and tornado watch.  

The SE sky is very dark so lots of action that direction. It appears the front is running into very warm moist air just SE of me from east of Ft Worth on a line to Sherman on the Red River extending into Oklahoma.  

As the afternoon wears on this could get ugly.  It’s very much like a Spring storm.  The big difference are the Fall colors.  
 

 

D2814FBE-71B8-42F2-BD8E-59EBA64FA7A3.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Bands of heavy rain and severe weather continue to slide across North Texas. Nice to see all this rain.

76*  Winds SSW at 18-30 mph

Some dime to quarter size hail in areas and tornado watches as these systems move east.  The tornado watch is in effect until 8pm.  At this hour most of it is just barely east of Ft. Worth. Extremely dark to the SE.   The clouds earlier had large wispy horse tails dropping out of them. Really nice sky watching today.

New residents from out of state, mostly west, freak out in these storms.  Old timers like me put their feet up and find something to read.  I've had tornadoes bounce over my house and land on the field next to me and jump over my parents' house numerous times.  Fascinating to look up into those beasts. You feel like you're in Wizard of Oz. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Plenty of hook signatures as these move eastward.  One near Mexia that they are watching closely. 

Wind is gusty and howling here in the DFW area so plenty of lift.  I have some clearing to the west as this mass/mess moves east.  Weathermen are having a bus-man's holiday today!

Update:  As these move east Mets are announcing more and more circulations, and warnings.  Likely will continue until heating is gone (hopefully avoiding night tornados)

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We have currently 5 Tornado Warnings in effect east of Dallas.  Amazing. 
Still very windy in Ft Worth. 
 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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This has been a very dynamic system to watch.  So much circulation.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Another hit around Sulphuric Springs on the Ok/Tx border.   It struck something as you could see debris but no details on it.  
These gained volatility as they moved east.  I feel lucky as I’m SW of Ft Worth.  
The evening clouds were gorgeous as the sun hit the tail end of the clouds.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Horrible damage from tornadoes in Paris, TX, Diangerfield, TX, Idabel, OK, New Boston, TX, and parts of Arkansas. There was two Tornado Emergencies, the first one over Idabel, OK with a CC drop even above 30k feet high! (At least EF-4+) with a mesonet station that recorded 108 mph wind gusts and survived the tornado. And the other over New Boston, TX with an absolutely MASSIVE CC drop from that monster tornado. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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5 hours ago, Andie said:

Plenty of hook signatures as these move eastward.  One near Mexia that they are watching closely. 

Wind is gusty and howling here in the DFW area so plenty of lift.  I have some clearing to the west as this mass/mess moves east.  Weathermen are having a bus-man's holiday today!

Update:  As these move east Mets are announcing more and more circulations, and warnings.  Likely will continue until heating is gone (hopefully avoiding night tornados)

Tornadoes at night are the worst  😫 

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Rain is finished here I received 2.1 inches.  Quite the rain for KC today with some 3 inch amounts on the SE side of the city. Things have turned wet here the last 2 weeks, I've received 4.3 inches since Oct 23rd. 

 

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri
21 minutes ago

Today we broke the daily record rainfall for KC with 2.43". The previous record for today was 1.65" set in 1956. This tops the normal rainfall for all of November which is 2.00". Today is also the 5th wettest November day on the 135 year record. Oh and this is the most rain we have seen in one day in the last 157 days... The last time it rained this much was May 31st when 2.96" fell.

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This event has been pretty disappointing here in Cedar Rapids.  We are at about 1.35", so it's not a huge bust or anything, but I was hoping for much better.  Twice as much has fallen west of CR.  Except for a heavy downpour that dropped the first 0.30" this morning, it has been nothing but light to very light rain with an occasional, brief moderate burst.  The yellows and oranges on radar have consistently faded as they move into the CR area.  It has just been way too light.  I'm not even sure we'll make it to 2".  We'll probably need a couple good downpours Saturday morning ahead of the low and then a bit more from the backwash.

season snowfall: 16.6"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not sure what most were expecting with this event-- but most long term climo sites in C/SE IA have set max precip records for 11/4 and many totals will be over 2" when the event ends. Considering the avg precip for most locales in C/SE Iowa for Nov has allready been exceeded -- and nearly all over % of normal since SEPT 1st-- I guess I''ll take it compared to the last several months.

Here is DSM climo (not including today-- which will push totals well over 2".)  Not bad at all.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
132 AM CDT SAT NOV 05 2022

...................................

...THE DES MOINES IA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 4 2022...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1878 TO 2022


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         69   1206 AM  75    1909  54     15       54       
                                      2016                           
  MINIMUM         38    306 PM   4    1991  35      3       37       
  AVERAGE         54                        44     10       46     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        1.65R         1.28 1959   0.08   1.57     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    1.65                      0.30   1.35     0.00     
  SINCE SEP 1      6.20                      6.26  -0.06     7.13     
  SINCE JAN 1     27.32                     33.36  -6.04    26.57     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0.0           0.4  1910   0.1   -0.1      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.2   -0.2      0.0      
  SINCE SEP 1      0.0                       0.7   -0.7      0.0      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.7   -0.7      0.0      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

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6 hours ago, Clinton said:

Rain is finished here I received 2.1 inches.  Quite the rain for KC today with some 3 inch amounts on the SE side of the city. Things have turned wet here the last 2 weeks, I've received 4.3 inches since Oct 23rd. 

 

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri
21 minutes ago

Today we broke the daily record rainfall for KC with 2.43". The previous record for today was 1.65" set in 1956. This tops the normal rainfall for all of November which is 2.00". Today is also the 5th wettest November day on the 135 year record. Oh and this is the most rain we have seen in one day in the last 157 days... The last time it rained this much was May 31st when 2.96" fell.

Nature flipped the switch in a hurry!  Glad to see many on here have been blessed with a lot of moisture.

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This is about as good as it can get for your 1st Winter Storm of the Season for the Ski Resorts of CO.  Mind you, this is where most of the snow melt will derive from and flow into the CO river for AZ/NM.  I got a feeling that this Summer the lakes and reservoirs will fill up a bit.  Keep it coming!

Screen Shot 2022-11-05 at 5.00.08 AM.png

image.png

 

 

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..and over here it's winds for the win. Glad to see you guys getting rain where it's needed even more.

DTX:

Model consensus is for the cold front/850 MB Theta-E ridge axis to
clear southeast Michigan around 00z Sunday. Diurnal mixing today, as
high temperatures reach around 70 degrees (supported by latest
guidance), should allow for southerly winds gusting into the 45 to
50 MPH range, as we tap into the 45-55 knots noted at 925 MB level.
850 MB winds are even more concerning, with 65-70 knots of flow
noted.
Surface based instability has trended up just a bit in the
00z NAM, with capes advertised to reside in the 100-200 J/kg range.
With enhanced shower development right along the cold front, there
remains concern for localized damaging wind gusts of 60 MPH in the
21-01z time window. EQL levels remain well below -20 C, and even
comfortably below -10 C, so expecting a thunderless line of
convection. Ideally, we should get some lead shower activity
developing ahead of the cold font with the isentropic
ascent/moisture advection which would help lower temps/stabilize the
low levels just a bit to keep wind speeds with the frontal passage
sub-severe. Confidence is not high in avoiding isolated 55-60 mph
gusts, but at least leaves are pretty much off the bulk of the
trees, which should help limit tree damage.

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 17.8"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@KCSmokey just posted this as well, but the comma head is rotating nicely through the area this morning. This would have made for a nice major winter storm if cold air had been in place. I have not seen any snowflakes and have a current temp of 37.4F.

Assuming a middle of the road LRC cycle of 50-55 days would bring this system back at Christmas or a few days after. White Christmas anyone? Of course the storm will likely look different in future cycles so maybe not as good...😐

 

KTWX_loop.gif

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  • 22-23 Total Snowfall: 5.2" as of 02/02/23.
  • King of the 1" snowfalls (0.6", 1.5", 1.0", 1.0, 1.1")
  • House specialty: snow at night with low rates!
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49 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

@KCSmokey just posted this as well, but the comma head is rotating nicely through the area this morning. This would have made for a nice major winter storm if cold air had been in place. I have not seen any snowflakes and have a current temp of 37.4F.

Assuming a middle of the road LRC cycle of 50-55 days would bring this system back at Christmas or a few days after. White Christmas anyone? Of course the storm will likely look different in future cycles so maybe not as good...😐

 

KTWX_loop.gif

I'm getting some additional rain here not sure if I will see a flake.  Seems to me the surface low is tracking further SE than what was forecasted.  

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1 hour ago, KCSmokey said:

Just got moderate snow alert in my weather app. image.thumb.png.a39bc8ba8425139297c47217bc144a8b.png

 

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

 

Some very wet slushy flakes are falling at my house right now. First flakes of the season!  

Video and a pic of the light dusting:  

 

IMG_4778.MOV 1.55 MB · 2 downloads

 

snow.jpg

How did you guys do on rainfall?

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9 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Big bust here lol. Not much rain and no snow at all and clear skies this morning 

Yeah another disappointment here… picked up 0.40” of rain in my backyard (far from the 1” to 2” that was forecast) and no snow at all.

Feels like we are stuck in a pattern that we can’t break around here… the drought is definitely winning as the good moisture keeps getting shunted south and east.

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to 11/3 - 11/6 | Horrible Tornado Outbreak in the Southern Plains from a D1 Moderate

Found some footage of the damage, all from last night. I will be watching for the first light drones.
Idabel, OK

Simms, TX to New Boston, TX

Powderly, TX (North of Paris, TX)

 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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We had a very bumpy day yesterday and a good deal of damage as the front picked up energy in the east of the state in that warm gulf air.  Ft. Worth dodge the bullet this time but clouds were very scary.   

We’re currently 52* headed for 68. 
Absolutely gorgeous and crystal clear! Tomorrow we’ll see 80*

Storm video

://nbcdfw.app.link/I2BZJwMbIub

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm sitting at 1.99".  The area of backwash precip should be enough to put me over 2".

My final rain total is 2.06".  We ended up in a relative dry pocket, with more rain west and east.  3-3.5" fell just west and nw of Cedar Rapids.  Of course I wanted to be in the max band, but I'm satisfied with 2".

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season snowfall: 16.6"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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