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11/3 - 11/6 | Horrible Tornado Outbreak in the Southern Plains from a D1 Moderate


Iceresistance

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This event has been pretty disappointing here in Cedar Rapids.  We are at about 1.35", so it's not a huge bust or anything, but I was hoping for much better.  Twice as much has fallen west of CR.  Except for a heavy downpour that dropped the first 0.30" this morning, it has been nothing but light to very light rain with an occasional, brief moderate burst.  The yellows and oranges on radar have consistently faded as they move into the CR area.  It has just been way too light.  I'm not even sure we'll make it to 2".  We'll probably need a couple good downpours Saturday morning ahead of the low and then a bit more from the backwash.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not sure what most were expecting with this event-- but most long term climo sites in C/SE IA have set max precip records for 11/4 and many totals will be over 2" when the event ends. Considering the avg precip for most locales in C/SE Iowa for Nov has allready been exceeded -- and nearly all over % of normal since SEPT 1st-- I guess I''ll take it compared to the last several months.

Here is DSM climo (not including today-- which will push totals well over 2".)  Not bad at all.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
132 AM CDT SAT NOV 05 2022

...................................

...THE DES MOINES IA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 4 2022...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1878 TO 2022


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         69   1206 AM  75    1909  54     15       54       
                                      2016                           
  MINIMUM         38    306 PM   4    1991  35      3       37       
  AVERAGE         54                        44     10       46     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        1.65R         1.28 1959   0.08   1.57     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    1.65                      0.30   1.35     0.00     
  SINCE SEP 1      6.20                      6.26  -0.06     7.13     
  SINCE JAN 1     27.32                     33.36  -6.04    26.57     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0.0           0.4  1910   0.1   -0.1      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.2   -0.2      0.0      
  SINCE SEP 1      0.0                       0.7   -0.7      0.0      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.7   -0.7      0.0      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 hours ago, Clinton said:

Rain is finished here I received 2.1 inches.  Quite the rain for KC today with some 3 inch amounts on the SE side of the city. Things have turned wet here the last 2 weeks, I've received 4.3 inches since Oct 23rd. 

 

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri
21 minutes ago

Today we broke the daily record rainfall for KC with 2.43". The previous record for today was 1.65" set in 1956. This tops the normal rainfall for all of November which is 2.00". Today is also the 5th wettest November day on the 135 year record. Oh and this is the most rain we have seen in one day in the last 157 days... The last time it rained this much was May 31st when 2.96" fell.

Nature flipped the switch in a hurry!  Glad to see many on here have been blessed with a lot of moisture.

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This is about as good as it can get for your 1st Winter Storm of the Season for the Ski Resorts of CO.  Mind you, this is where most of the snow melt will derive from and flow into the CO river for AZ/NM.  I got a feeling that this Summer the lakes and reservoirs will fill up a bit.  Keep it coming!

Screen Shot 2022-11-05 at 5.00.08 AM.png

image.png

 

 

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..and over here it's winds for the win. Glad to see you guys getting rain where it's needed even more.

DTX:

Model consensus is for the cold front/850 MB Theta-E ridge axis to
clear southeast Michigan around 00z Sunday. Diurnal mixing today, as
high temperatures reach around 70 degrees (supported by latest
guidance), should allow for southerly winds gusting into the 45 to
50 MPH range, as we tap into the 45-55 knots noted at 925 MB level.
850 MB winds are even more concerning, with 65-70 knots of flow
noted.
Surface based instability has trended up just a bit in the
00z NAM, with capes advertised to reside in the 100-200 J/kg range.
With enhanced shower development right along the cold front, there
remains concern for localized damaging wind gusts of 60 MPH in the
21-01z time window. EQL levels remain well below -20 C, and even
comfortably below -10 C, so expecting a thunderless line of
convection. Ideally, we should get some lead shower activity
developing ahead of the cold font with the isentropic
ascent/moisture advection which would help lower temps/stabilize the
low levels just a bit to keep wind speeds with the frontal passage
sub-severe. Confidence is not high in avoiding isolated 55-60 mph
gusts, but at least leaves are pretty much off the bulk of the
trees, which should help limit tree damage.

  • Windy 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@KCSmokey just posted this as well, but the comma head is rotating nicely through the area this morning. This would have made for a nice major winter storm if cold air had been in place. I have not seen any snowflakes and have a current temp of 37.4F.

Assuming a middle of the road LRC cycle of 50-55 days would bring this system back at Christmas or a few days after. White Christmas anyone? Of course the storm will likely look different in future cycles so maybe not as good...😐

 

KTWX_loop.gif

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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49 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

@KCSmokey just posted this as well, but the comma head is rotating nicely through the area this morning. This would have made for a nice major winter storm if cold air had been in place. I have not seen any snowflakes and have a current temp of 37.4F.

Assuming a middle of the road LRC cycle of 50-55 days would bring this system back at Christmas or a few days after. White Christmas anyone? Of course the storm will likely look different in future cycles so maybe not as good...😐

 

KTWX_loop.gif

I'm getting some additional rain here not sure if I will see a flake.  Seems to me the surface low is tracking further SE than what was forecasted.  

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1 hour ago, KCSmokey said:

Just got moderate snow alert in my weather app. image.thumb.png.a39bc8ba8425139297c47217bc144a8b.png

 

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

 

Some very wet slushy flakes are falling at my house right now. First flakes of the season!  

Video and a pic of the light dusting:  

 

IMG_4778.MOV 1.55 MB · 2 downloads

 

snow.jpg

How did you guys do on rainfall?

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9 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Big bust here lol. Not much rain and no snow at all and clear skies this morning 

Yeah another disappointment here… picked up 0.40” of rain in my backyard (far from the 1” to 2” that was forecast) and no snow at all.

Feels like we are stuck in a pattern that we can’t break around here… the drought is definitely winning as the good moisture keeps getting shunted south and east.

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  • Iceresistance changed the title to 11/3 - 11/6 | Horrible Tornado Outbreak in the Southern Plains from a D1 Moderate

Found some footage of the damage, all from last night. I will be watching for the first light drones.
Idabel, OK

Simms, TX to New Boston, TX

Powderly, TX (North of Paris, TX)

 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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We had a very bumpy day yesterday and a good deal of damage as the front picked up energy in the east of the state in that warm gulf air.  Ft. Worth dodge the bullet this time but clouds were very scary.   

We’re currently 52* headed for 68. 
Absolutely gorgeous and crystal clear! Tomorrow we’ll see 80*

Storm video

://nbcdfw.app.link/I2BZJwMbIub

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm sitting at 1.99".  The area of backwash precip should be enough to put me over 2".

My final rain total is 2.06".  We ended up in a relative dry pocket, with more rain west and east.  3-3.5" fell just west and nw of Cedar Rapids.  Of course I wanted to be in the max band, but I'm satisfied with 2".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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One of the best headlines for my CWA during this event:

CF rains/winds are hitting here pretty hard as well attm. 

Special Marine Warning


Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
627 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

LHZ421-422-060000-
/O.CON.KDTX.MA.W.0049.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
627 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

For the following areas...
  Inner and Outer Saginaw Bay...

At 626 PM EDT, showers were located along a line extending from 7 nm
southwest of Gravelly Shoals to near Bay City Liberty Harbor to near
Quanicassee, moving northeast at 50 knots.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 50 knots.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Boats could suffer significant structural damage in high
         winds. Small craft could capsize in suddenly higher waves.

Locations impacted include...
Quanicassee, Port Austin, Bay City Liberty Harbor, Caseville, Bay
Port, Gravelly Shoals, Sebewaing, The Mouth Of The Saginaw River and
Pinconning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are
expected.

&&

LAT...LON 4391 8396 4392 8389 4399 8384 4398 8376
      4400 8373 4399 8368 4402 8369 4405 8366
      4405 8358 4419 8356 4418 8300 4404 8299
      4397 8308 4395 8324 4369 8346 4367 8354
      4355 8367 4365 8394 4368 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 214DEG 49KT 4389 8368 4370 8370 4356 8377

HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...50KTS

$$

Behnke
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  • Windy 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 hours ago, james1976 said:

Had 2.02" when I left home earlier. Still had the last band to go through so may have tacked on a bit more. Up in MN now. This would have been an awesome winter storm.

This will be an awesome winter storm, we'll see this setup a few times over the Winter, congrats on the rain!

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I only had 0.41" from the storm but there areas with 3+" not too far away. I saw severe reports of 2-3" spikeball hail within an hour or so of here based on the pictures but not sure how it got logged.

I think we were up to 5 or 6 confirmed tornadoes in the Tulsa CWA as of last night with more surveys to do. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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14 hours ago, Tom said:

The wind threat certainly materialized, eh? That was a nasty imbedded squall line for NEIL. For DTX's area I am surprised at several 60+ reports. 

000
NWUS53 KDTX 060242
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1042 PM EDT SAT NOV 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW ADRIAN             41.87N 84.08W
11/05/2022  M66 MPH          LENAWEE            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KADG ADRIAN.

0547 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE FREELAND          43.53N 84.08W
11/05/2022  M63 MPH          SAGINAW            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KMBS SAGINAW.

0951 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE ROMULUS           42.23N 83.33W
11/05/2022  M61 MPH          WAYNE              MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KDTW DETROIT WAYNE.

0655 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW MONROE             41.93N 83.42W
11/05/2022  M60 MPH          MONROE             MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KTTF MONROE.

0635 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE BAD AXE           43.78N 82.98W
11/05/2022  M59 MPH          HURON              MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KBAX BAD AXE.

0820 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N RANKIN              42.97N 83.75W
11/05/2022  M54 MPH          GENESEE            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KFNT FLINT.

0557 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE SALINE             42.22N 83.73W
11/05/2022  M53 MPH          WASHTENAW          MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KARB ANN ARBOR.

0622 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W WATERFORD           42.67N 83.42W
11/05/2022  M51 MPH          OAKLAND            MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KPTK PONTIAC.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So, all in all, storm here in far eastern Oklahoma dropped 3 inches or so of rain and produced some wild wind damages in a few places north and immediately south of me. Parts of Northwest Arkansas are under repair now. 

It was a wild storm. 

We'll see if we are close enough to the winter months for the Ozarks lore to prove true that it will snow in a week. 

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