November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[clintbeed1993]

It has sure been a very mild month of October across the entire region.  But something is lurking up above..something menacing.  Many have kept up with the incredible blocking we have had all month.  This blocking has been so impressive that the polar vortex is even weakened at a record level for this early in the season.  We have some indications that the polar vortex will actually split as we head into November.  I think the writing is pretty much on the wall for a very cold November, atleast by the 2nd half of the month.  Could we see a snowstorm sometime around or before Thanksgiving this year?  I believe we are currently being played for suckers by mother nature and she is getting ready to unleash the floodgates on us.  This is the "it's way too calm" before the storm.  Discuss!!!!!

[jaster220]

@ Clintbeed

 

Best lead-in to a monthly thread - evva!  I would think you guys further west stand a legit shot at a storm. Over my way, more likely it'd be the LES event. November synoptic systems have become more rare than ever. Plus, we got our rare bird last year on the 21st. That one and the one back in 2004 are the two I remember since returning 14 yrs ago. Good luck out there!

[Tom]

I second that "intro" by Clint!  The suspense is building and all the players are on the field ready to rumble.  I agree, the Plains states will stand a better chance IMO for seeing a wound up system as I think troughs will start targeting the west over the coming few weeks as the Split Flow over the NE PAC matures.  I wouldn't discount a wintry system around the lakes from a "clipper" or synoptic system, moreso later in the month.

 

Can't believe we are already talking about November weather!  Time flies and my favorite season is about to begin.  Before we know it, it will be Thanksgiving and the holiday season will be in full effect...hopefully with snow flying around town!

[james1976]

GFS looking pretty interesting first week of Nov.

[OKwx2k4]

In JB'S video today he said temps were more likely to begin falling earlier than the last 1.5 weeks of November. Said that there was likely a huge lag in the surface temps (much as there was over Asia this month) due to the ensemble blend. I'd say again, until further notice, ride the GFS in longer ranges. Reasoning being is that it seems to do quite well lately at day 10-15 and then losing what it had only to bring it back up at day 3-5. He brought up 1983-84 as a good timeline to possibly follow at the end of the month and into December as well. Said changes are coming and it definitely won't be like last year.

[Tom]

Today's 12z EPS run firing up the western N.A. ridge during the first week of November, GEFS not as enthusiastic and keeps the trough in the GOA closer to shore.  I also see that the EPS has a signal to keep the piece of the PV near Hudson Bay through Day 10, on the other hand, GEFS loose it by Day 7.  

 

12z EPS Day 8...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016102512/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png

 

Day 10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016102512/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

12z GEFS Day 10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102512/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

 

Closer look of the 12z EPS by Day 7 showing cold trying to knife down the leeward side of the Rockies.  Each day it's showing a stronger cold signal.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016102512/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_8.png

[OKwx2k4]

Somethings going to give pretty soon. That warmth can't hang for much longer.

[gabel23]

Today's 12z EPS run firing up the western N.A. ridge during the first week of November, GEFS not as enthusiastic and keeps the trough in the GOA closer to shore. I also see that the EPS has a signal to keep the piece of the PV near Hudson Bay through Day 10, on the other hand, GEFS loose it by Day 7.

 

12z EPS Day 8...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016102512/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png

 

Day 10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016102512/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

12z GEFS Day 10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102512/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

 

Closer look of the 12z EPS by Day 7 showing cold trying to knife down the leeward side of the Rockies. Each day it's showing a stronger cold signal.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016102512/ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_8.png

Looks like a spilt flow to me.......mix that with a neutral NAO and a negative AO and I'm liking this year's LRC. Bowling ball lows is the wealth that gives to all on this forum..........

[james1976]

Lock it in!! Lol

[OKwx2k4]

Lock it in!! Lol

gfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Wow. Is that snow in oklahoma?

[james1976]

Wow. Is that snow in oklahoma?

My bday is the 11th. Lets make it come true haha.

Models have been honing in on colder/active weather first part of Nov so you never know.

[Stormgeek]

Man, would you look at that moisture plume over Minnesota! 

[OKwx2k4]

My bday is the 11th. Lets make it come true haha.

Models have been honing in on colder/active weather first part of Nov so you never know.

Well, it would fit what JB was saying about the Euro weeklies today. Said that it's surface temps were too slow to cool vs it's upper air maps and after looking at it, it really does make sense.

[james1976]

-10 850s poking into northern MN.

[Jaycee]

Can someone please remind me how it's almost November already?!?! Is this what adults meant by time flies when I was a kid? Cuz omg. Could've sworn it was August a couple weeks ago.

 

 

Upper Midwest looking good on GFS in the long run. Quite a few powerful systems, hopefully we can get something going, the shaft from this last one was a real bugger! Hate when the low comes right overhead like it did yesterday

[Tom]

Can someone please remind me how it's almost November already?!?! Is this what adults meant by time flies when I was a kid? Cuz omg. Could've sworn it was August a couple weeks ago.

 

 

Upper Midwest looking good on GFS in the long run. Quite a few powerful systems, hopefully we can get something going, the shaft from this last one was a real bugger! Hate when the low comes right overhead like it did yesterday

You and me both!  It's crazy to know the Trick O' Treaters will be walking around the neighborhood Monday, and before you know it, the clocks go back 1 hour on November 6th and the days get shorter!

 

CFSv2 also agrees on a wet pattern into Week 2...a very active pacific jet will blast the NW U.S. coastline...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016102600/cfs-avg_apcpna_us_2.png

[jaster220]

You and me both!  It's crazy to know the Trick O' Treaters will be walking around the neighborhood Monday, and before you know it, the clocks go back 1 hour on November 6th and the days get shorter!

 

CFSv2 also agrees on a wet pattern into Week 2...a very active pacific jet will blast the NW U.S. coastline...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016102600/cfs-avg_apcpna_us_2.png

 

Here you go Neb peeps! Just need the cold to show..

[gosaints]

Signs of prime late fall weather showing up on the extended

[OKwx2k4]

Signs of prime late fall weather showing up on the extended

Welcome back.

[gosaints]

Welcome back.

You got it...

[OKwx2k4]

You got it...

Any thoughts about winter?

[gosaints]

Any thoughts about winter?

Better look than last winter at this time obviously. Cautious optimism I guess.

[OKwx2k4]

Better look than last winter at this time obviously. Cautious optimism I guess.

Fair enough. :-)

[james1976]

GFS sure is warm thru mid month. I want winter! Lol

[Tom]

I think the JMA Weeklies are seeing the flip for the second half of November.  Huge warm up Week 1, then the changes slowly start showing up as the ridging in NW NAMER starts pulling back and the GOA trough also retrogrades west by Week 2.  Finally, by Week 3 & 4, we may be in business as the N PAC trough backs west towards the Aleutians while a -AO/-NAO is in control.  Meanwhile, the N PAC jet cuts underneath and develops a sweet looking text book storm track out of the Rockies/Southern Plains towards the Lakes.   The traveling period during Thanksgiving week could get impacted if this holds on.

 

 

[jaster220]

Summary for yesterday looks so drastically opposed from what this autumn has delivered up til then: Approx -15º deg high temp departure (40ºF), with 20 mph gusting to 30 mph easterly winds, & qpf +/-0.9" (best was a bit north of me). There's no doubt last evening's commute would've been in bliz conditions with temps chilled down about 15 more deg's. Was actually a nice system if it comes back in the LRC! Liking the look/feel that's for sure.

 

BooRahh! if that can verify flakes will be flying for sure! 

 

 

[Niko]

November 1st, my highs are projected to be in the mid 70's. That will feel very refreshing, indeed. Tbh, I would not mind to have a mild November, right up to around or after Thanksgiving.

[OKwx2k4]

Remember what little cold signal the JMA showed for Asia in this time frame a few weeks ago vs actual temps now over there. (Some averaged -30 F over the last 10 days) Might very well be under estimating the flip over NAMER in 15-20 days. Just a thought.

[Tom]

Our local ABC 7 news program reporting that the city of Chicago expecting 45" of snow this year which would be above normal. They also anticipate our first snow storm in November. Coincidentally, ABC 7 met mentioning a pattern flip to colder conditions mid month of November, something we have been hearing and seeing in the modeling

[jaster220]

Remember what little cold signal the JMA showed for Asia in this time frame a few weeks ago vs actual temps now over there. (Some averaged -30 F over the last 10 days) Might very well be under estimating the flip over NAMER in 15-20 days. Just a thought.

Our local ABC 7 news program reporting that the city of Chicago expecting 45" of snow this year which would be above normal. They also anticipate our first snow storm in November. Coincidentally, ABC 7 met mentioning a pattern flip to colder conditions mid month of November, something we have been hearing and seeing in the modeling

 

If this is the "warmer" regime, dare I dream of the real deal coming in a few weeks? Yikes! 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, a few select folks were measuring the inches in central lower Mich:

 

 

[Tom]

If this is the "warmer" regime, dare I dream of the real deal coming in a few weeks? Yikes!

 

20161027 KRMY 1230pm.PNG

 

 

Meanwhile, a few select folks were measuring the inches in central lower Mich:

 

20161026 NMI Snow Reports.PNG

Dang, I'm surprised that much snow was able to accumulate! Models did a decent job with it.

 

This is the teaser for what's down the road!

[Niko]

@Tom: perhaps the appetizer.

[jaster220]

Our local ABC 7 news program reporting that the city of Chicago expecting 45" of snow this year which would be above normal. They also anticipate our first snow storm in November. Coincidentally, ABC 7 met mentioning a pattern flip to colder conditions mid month of November, something we have been hearing and seeing in the modeling

 

120% above iirc. Bold, but not super bold considering the way everything appears attm. I feel strongly that my forecast of last year (150-200% normal) from Marshall west to the lakeshore here in SWMI has a good shot at verifying. Can I keep playing that hand til I win?? 

[OKwx2k4]

CFS says Happy Thanksgiving for everyone almost.

 

 

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies agreeing with the JMA Weeklies run today...here it comes!  Ol' Man Winter will be coming out of hibernation later this month.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro control and mean. One of the better looking control runs I have ever seen. :-)

 

I wonder if the Euro is still having roubles with leaving things hanging too far west. It doesn't line up well with its 500mb or its 850 temps throughout the period.

[Tom]

Euro control and mean. One of the better looking control runs I have ever seen. :-)eps_sno_c_1104_conus_185.png

eps_sno_1104_conus_185.png

 

I wonder if the Euro is still having roubles with leaving things hanging too far west. It doesn't line up well with its 500mb or its 850 temps throughout the period.

Good point. I like the overall look, storm track definitely is going to pound the west but I doubt it'll be that far NW in the central CONUS as we get into December.  Too much blocking shouldn't keep it that far north, I wouldn't be surprised if the southern Midwest gets in on the action and your region.

[OKwx2k4]

Here's the overall precipitation pattern as well. Definitely a puzzling look to things to me.

 

[Tom]

Here's the overall precipitation pattern as well. Definitely a puzzling look to things to me.

 

eps_qpf_1104_conus_185-1.png

Man, the Great Lakes are gonna be on fire when the flip hits! There will be places with Feet of snow.  Wonder if Buffalo, NY gets another memorable multi-day lake effect snow event.

[Niko]

Man, the Great Lakes are gonna be on fire when the flip hits! There will be places with Feet of snow. Wonder if Buffalo,NY gets another memorable multi-day lake effect snow event.

Cannot wait to get the first real big winterstorm.