November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[james1976]

Great run. Wow, so many systems!

[GDR]

Big difference between euro and gfs right now. My guess is the nw solution with the euro wins out.

[Tom]

00z EURO farther SE from it's previous run, looks more like the GFS now...takes it from just south of KC up towards lower lakes...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112100/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112100/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

 

 

 

00z EPS seems to be showing a first wave track out of CO and heads east...then a secondary, primary wave of energy develops from the south and heads towards the Lakes.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112100/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_9.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112100/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_10.png

 

 

Day 10...Euro slowed the main system down..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112100/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

[Tom]

00z EPS 850's...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112100/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112100/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png

[james1976]

Is it still showing decent snowfall?

06z GFS was more SE too.

[OKwx2k4]

They're creeping southeast. I like it. All major control runs bring snow down to eastern Oklahoma now. :-)

[Tom]

They're creeping southeast. I like it. All major control runs bring snow down to eastern Oklahoma now. :-)

Did the spread on the 00z EPS send the snow band south also???  Can you post snow map of the entire 00z Euro run?

[jaster220]

@Jaster: Did you use your shovel yesterday??!

 

Sure did! Had to go find it first though 

 

CPC outlooked warm, but as we transition out of the warm pattern comes the moisture...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

 

Don't think I've ever seen so much green painted on one of those maps!

[Tom]

CFSv2 flipping hard towards some of the extreme analogs for December.  It's basically gone from a monster ridge, to a major trough...

 

Nov 2nd run..

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20161102.201612.gif

 

Today's run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20161121.201612.gif

 

 

Trending nicely...very wet trend continues...the latest run is absolutely nuts if you combine the precip and cold...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201612.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201612.gif

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

#CFSgetsaclue   Kudos for hanging tough on the flip when all those models went warm (hot) biased a couple weeks ago 

[jaster220]

Yesterday's run ofc, but at this range nothing's set in concrete. This would rock if only it could happen. I don't think JB's comments meant it was going all the way to the EC. He prolly meant it shouldn't cut as far NW as this bliz we just had. I'd love to be in the game on this one, but having scored a biggie one yr ago, I need to remember not to get too greedy. Easier said than done, tbh 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

@ Tom

 

#CFSgetsaclue Kudos for hanging tough on the flip when all those models went warm (hot) biased a couple weeks ago

I know this was directed at Tom but every analog I found that fit this year back in September had the flip. It was hard to just ignore it. May be even more extreme than I even thought it was by the time all is said and done. Even 77-78 had the flip in it. It's going to be a fun winter for everyone.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

#CFSgetsaclue   Kudos for hanging tough on the flip when all those models went warm (hot) biased a couple weeks ago 

The CFSv2 trends are certainly looking a lot like the LRC which had extreme early season cold building in SW Canada for the month of October.  Obviously it wasn't cold for the lower 48, but that is because the main weather drivers back then are now going to have a much different impact going forward for the lower 48.  Check out the placement of the coldest anomalies back in October vs today's run....coincidence???

 

 

vs Today's CFSv2 run for December...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20161121.201612.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Yesterday's run ofc, but at this range nothing's set in concrete. This would rock if only it could happen. I don't think JB's comments meant it was going all the way to the EC. He prolly meant it shouldn't cut as far NW as this bliz we just had. I'd love to be in the game on this one, but having scored a biggie one yr ago, I need to remember not to get too greedy. Easier said than done, tbh

 

20161120 Euro 0z 240hr surf & 850mb.PNG

 

Yes. This one should be suppressed just slightly further south of where it is there and slightly colder by the time all is said and done if you look at teleconnections during the period. Apps runner for sure.

[OKwx2k4]

This is last week's weeklies ensemble precip map. Look at the overall storm track here. Love love love it. New weeklies tonight.

 

 

 

I'll have a pretty substantive post out tonight after the new weeklies come in. Looks to me like, though, as they say "Sh-- done got real and real fast". Lol.

[Tom]

GEFS trending for another system digging towards the Pan Handle region around the 3rd/4th of December...ridge off the EC positioned to allow for another GL/OV cutter...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112100/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_28.png

[westMJim]

Yesterday’s high of 32° was the coldest high here at Grand Rapids since March 3^rd  and Saturday’s 0.8” was the most snow since April 4^th when 5.4” fell.

Here is some weather history for Thanksgiving here at GRR

http://www.weather.gov/grr/news20161120

At this time this year will not have any new extremes add to the record books

[Niko]

GEFS trending for another system digging towards the Pan Handle region around the 3rd/4th of December...ridge off the EC positioned to allow for another GL/OV cutter...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112100/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_28.png

[Niko]

Sure did! Had to go find it first though 

 

 

Don't think I've ever seen so much green painted on one of those maps!

Hope you found it.

[GDR]

[Niko]

So far, my forecast for Thanksgiving is calling for overcast skies and chilly conditions with temps in the low 40s and lows in the low 30s with on and off snowflurries.

[OKwx2k4]

At least the CFS likes me. Lol

[gosaints]

The 28th-29th storm on the GFS is a brutal windy cold rain...

[Niko]

Currently at 32F with sunny skies and windy conditions with a WCF of a Brrr of 18F.

 

@Jaster: do you have any pics of the snow you received yesterday?

[jaster220]

ClicheVortex posted:

 

 

 

Very active pattern for the Midwest. 3 GLC in 8 days (if I did the math correctly). I suspect this will be the winter of the GLC's.  An extraordinary pattern for lee cyclogenesis. 2 sub-990 lows in one frame! 

 

[gosaints]

ClicheVortex posted:

 

 

Anything but the poop storms of the last two winters will be a welcome site

[Niko]

ClicheVortex posted:

 

 

Fun times ahead.

[FarmerRick]

One storm's worth of snow for Nebraska...  

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112112/264/sn10_acc.us_c.png

[jaster220]

Currently at 32F with sunny skies and windy conditions with a WCF of a Brrr of 18F.

 

@Jaster: do you have any pics of the snow you received yesterday?

 

I have very traditional photo options, so usually I won't mess with minor events. A long way of telling you NOPE

[james1976]

GFS remains active. Storm around 28th.....another around the 1st....another piece of energy around the 4th.....and another big one around the 6th. Fantasy land baby.

[Niko]

I have very traditional photo options, so usually I won't mess with minor events. A long way of telling you NOPE

I figured, 1" to 1.5" is a little too extreme to take pics for this time of the year, unless you receive this snowfall amount in late September or early October, where snowfall is rare to occur.

[Niko]

GFS remains active. Storm around 28th.....another around the 1st....another piece of energy around the 4th.....and another big one around the 6th. Fantasy land baby.

I prefer reality

[Tom]

12z GEFS showing a 1-2 punch with a lead system on the 28th-29th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112112/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_33.png

 

 

Then the bigger one around the 1st...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112112/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_41.png

[GDR]

 

The 28th-29th storm on the GFS is a brutal windy cold rain...[/quote. Yeah all I see is cold rain on the gfs during that period

[james1976]

 

 

The 28th-29th storm on the GFS is a brutal windy cold rain...[/quote. Yeah all I see is cold rain on the gfs during that period

The one right after it is showing snow.

[jaster220]

..and for the record, JB doesn't hide it  

 

 

 

When it comes to snow, I am 61, going on 6

[OKwx2k4]

..and for the record, JB doesn't hide it

Lol. I think we can all agree.

[gosaints]

ame="GDR" post="165088" timestamp="1479752051"]

 

 

The one right after it is showing snow.

yes...

[FarmerRick]

..and for the record, JB doesn't hide it  

 

 

Who is JB?

[gosaints]

Who is JB?

a huge snow weenie