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November 2016 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

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Man, the Great Lakes are gonna be on fire when the flip hits! There will be places with Feet of snow.  Wonder if Buffalo, NY gets another memorable multi-day lake effect snow event.

 

That's almost a lock really. Unless every fropa brings NW winds, they'll be buried like Dec '95, Nov 2014, etc, etc, etc..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CFSv2 starting to indicate a coast-to-coast wet and stormy pattern for Thanksgiving week...a major SOI crash down to -35.46 is currently driving an odd El Nino-like signal.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016102800/cfs-avg_apcpna_us_4.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016102800/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_5.png

 

 

 

If the forecasted tongue of cold waters stretching all the way from East Asia/Cali will continue to dominate the N PAC waters, so long there is a pocket of warm waters in the GOA, this has me fired up heading into the heart of winter.  This will be a very rare SST set up in both the North/Central Pacific, along with high latitude blocking i place.  If someone has can dig up any historical analogs based on SST's alone, that would be helpful.  I know one of the harsh winters in the late 70's were a weak Nino, but I don't remember if there was a weak Nina or La Nada mixed in to the few.  Nonetheless, a very interesting pattern is aligning.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20161028.201611.gif

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With a forecasted high in the upper 60’s the start of November could be the warmest here in GR since 2000. And as we have not had a reading of 32° yet at GRR this will be the latest that Grand Rapids had not reached freezing since 1940 (November 6)  I know there is a lot of people looking for a big "flip" in mid to late November and that very will may happen but then again it may not,  If indeed there is a big flip to much colder conditions then there is a good chance of a good amount of lake effect but there also more than just lake temperatures for good lake effect to happen. Stay tuned!

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Im gonna be in North Carolina the week of Thanksgiving. If i miss out on a snowstorm im gonna be p!ssed. Lol

I'll be driving to AZ early next week and planning on taking a different route through IA/NE/CO.   As a kid, I've taken a trip using that hwy to CO, but I do not remember it all.  Kinda excited to see some different scenery in the heartland, moreso, I'm anticipating the mountains in CO!

 

I'm going to keep an eye on the models and see if its worth it for me to fly back for Thanksgiving or stay in AZ.  I, to, don't want to miss out on a snow system!

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Which way through nebraska Tom? Have a safe trip.

Taking I-80 all the way through NE!  It'll be fun knowing I'll be passing a lot of our members home towns in NE, including Omaha, Lincoln, and Kearney.  Don't forget our IA peeps in DSM and parts of E IA near Davenport/Iowa City.

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I'll be driving to AZ early next week and planning on taking a different route through IA/NE/CO.   As a kid, I've taken a trip using that hwy to CO, but I do not remember it all.  Kinda excited to see some different scenery in the heartland, moreso, I'm anticipating the mountains in CO!

 

I'm going to keep an eye on the models and see if its worth it for me to fly back for Thanksgiving or stay in AZ.  I, to, don't want to miss out on a snow system!

 

Tom, I'll be sure to treat the snow nice while you're away buddy!  ;)  Oh, and have a great trip..

 

Also says "the flip is on" next month:

 

 

 

This guy says EPO goin down (some GEFS members are off the charts low):

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Taking a look at both GEFS/EPS ensembles, a very strange and rare sequence of events will transpire during the first week of November.  As the PV splits, due to increased easterlies near the Arctic regions, the lobe of the PV in CA will retrograde westward towards AK and then feedback near the Aleutians.  I find this quite strange because normally the westerlies would take it either back north towards the pole or east towards Greenland.  

 

Here are some maps.  By Nov 1st a trough is spinning just north of Hudson Bay...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102900/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_12.png

 

 

By the Nov 4th, it has tracked NW towards the Northwest Territories of CA...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102900/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_28.png

 

 

By Nov 9th, the energy get's picked up by the Aleutian Low...this is when the entire pattern starts to flip to a colder regime across the eastern CONUS.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102900/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_48.png

 

 

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As the LRC develops, both GFS/EURO showing the MJO ring around through Phase 7/8 in the early part of November.  Maybe making it to Phase 1 later on.

 

Here are the MJO Temp Composites during OND period...interestingly, the last couple GFS runs certainly looking like a Phase 7/8 stretch...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/OND/combined_image.png

 

 

If this pattern cycles through during DJF, here are the composites...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/DJF/combined_image.png

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Can we just roll on through the entire cold season with this type of Northern Hemispheric pattern???  12z GFS showing that storm train coming off of Eurasia following the cold tongue of waters being forecast by both the CFSv2/JMA right towards Cali.  This would be picture perfect!  This run is not far off what the CFSv2 is showing.  It will change, but I hope something similar evolves.  Classic mature Split Flow over N.A.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102912/gfs_z500a_nhem_51.png

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Can we just roll on through the entire cold season with this type of Northern Hemispheric pattern??? 12z GFS showing that storm train coming off of Eurasia following the cold tongue of waters being forecast by both the CFSv2/JMA right towards Cali. This would be picture perfect! This run is not far off what the CFSv2 is showing. It will change, but I hope something similar evolves. Classic mature Split Flow over N.A.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102912/gfs_z500a_nhem_51.png

Oh my. Storm after storm! Very nice!.

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If I am correct, I think this Autumn is shaping up to be similar w/t 2013. :unsure:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Impressive blow torch to open up the first full week of the month for basically everyone till about Election Day.  Between the 8th-14th I think we will be seeing the change to colder.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102912/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_3.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016102912/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

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Wanted to share this here. It's copied and pasted word for word from a poster on AMWX who posts as Typhoon Tip. He's from Southern New England but this has merit for the entire pattern over NAMER throughout the coming month.

-------------------------------------------------

"This is one of the more polarizing examples I can recall over recent years where the GEFs entire family of contributory ensembles feeding into the derivatives at both CDC and CPC, are out of sync with the operational model.

 

I mentioned this at the start of this tread ... that was the case (more at less), but as of last night? wow. - the ensemble mean would bring winter in abruptly by the 10th of the month incoming; yet the operational is completely off into a different galaxy, with broken wave lengths and troubles with even a conherent long wave pattern anywhere on our side of the hemisphere - including the Pacific ocean.

 

Recommend the weighter more consistent ensemble mean .. with perhaps less emphasis on magnitude: not sure I buy an ~ (-1 AO; -2 NAO; +3 PNA) tandem system of teleconnectors and the implication of what that "could" mean out right. If taken verbatim, that's probably a deep snow pack before thanks giving. These agencies have not only been hammering for some time, but they go out two weeks ... getting heftier in cold signal the whole way... Heh - we'll see. I figure we are one recurving west Pac forcing event from this igniting a hemispheric nuclear winter.

 

I'm amazed though that the operational versions from 00z got even MORE polarized and the ensemble means was even MORE in their regards ... really other ends of the pool.

 

Watch, the dead split average verifies which could not be more dullard and banally average/ no events ...no snow...seasonal excuse to formulate another hobby. Nothings impossible...

 

Barring cabin fever weather ... I still have seen one or two cycles of operational runs (respectively) go more cold and +PNAP -like, while the means don't waver. Fwiw - the consistency is tugging in favor of the cold teleconnectors here.

 

GEFs still = 10th ... Will noted the other day the Euro mean may be closer to the 20th or something... Either way, even though I'm willing to tone down the teleconnector implication some, I'd be surprised if this Novie end the way it's destined to begin. Note, the PNA is so strongly positive enough to 'pull' the EPO index down (they are negatively correlated over the longer climate mode). That means we may not even need the -EPO to tap the cold sap here if that continues. Also, PNA's tend to lead -EPOs due to typical wave migration/R-waves. Lots to consider... but weather it looks so out of doors now or not, there's a wild storm in the 'signals' - interesting.."

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Oh my. Storm after storm! Very nice!.

 

Can we just roll on through the entire cold season with this type of Northern Hemispheric pattern???  12z GFS showing that storm train coming off of Eurasia following the cold tongue of waters being forecast by both the CFSv2/JMA right towards Cali.  This would be picture perfect!  This run is not far off what the CFSv2 is showing.  It will change, but I hope something similar evolves.  Classic mature Split Flow over N.A.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102912/gfs_z500a_nhem_51.png

 

That's what I'd call a Pre-Thanksgiving Day Parade alright!  Is there anything in the modern recollection that remotely resembled this outcome to begin the cold season? Only thing that comes to mind over my way would be '77-78 which brought South Bend a 24" LES storm in November. Then ofc they got 3+ feet in the MOAB the following January. I'd love to see anything close to that LOL. Certainly for mby here in Marshall, '66-67 brought the record early Nov (2nd-3rd) 10-12" storm followed by the 22-28" totals that the January bliz brought this region (totally crazy stuff that Marshall proper got basically the same ~22" storm on the same 2 days exactly 9 yrs apart Jan 26-27 1967 and Jan 26-27 1978)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Accu-weather has my whole November outlook mild. I wonder what they are seeing and what details they have to express their thinking.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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After a frosty morning early today, temps will soar in the 70's tomorrow. That will feel nice.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wouldnt be surprised if it ends up being right. Models keep pushing the cold back.

 

Well, somethings happening. Per JB's comments it's not your run-of-the-mill situation unfolding either

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, somethings happening. Per JB's comments it's not your run-of-the-mill situation unfolding either

 

20161031 JB on MJO flip by the Euro.PNG

The SOI crash causing model mayhem (JB's ideology). I saw the MJO forecast over the weekend and thought it was intriguing, hence the post I made. Btw, 12z Euro starting the cross Polar flow by Day 9-10! NW Namer ridge is a poppin'!

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Wouldnt be surprised if it ends up being right. Models keep pushing the cold back.

Maybe, a backloaded winter.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Please no more backloaded winters.  I really don't care for them for a number of reasons.  Need a nice snowy and frigid December into January to really establish the cold and keep a meaningful snowpack around while the sun is at it's weakest.  If it waits until February/March it never sticks around very long and ends up feeling like a wasted winter.

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Please no more backloaded winters. I really don't care for them for a number of reasons. Need a nice snowy and frigid December into January to really establish the cold and keep a meaningful snowpack around while the sun is at it's weakest. If it waits until February/March it never sticks around very long and ends up feeling like a wasted winter.

No worries. Mid-late December to early January is where the action is this year, regardless what happens in November. I'm really pretty sure of it

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Us snow plowers would really prefer consistent snow through out the winter. The thought of waiting for a back loaded winter to materialize is stressful as we watch our bank accounts dwindle.

It's highly doubtful we have a back loaded winter around here.  Your going to be in good shape this year.  I think it will make up for the last 2 lousy winters.  You may start plowing end of this month if things verify as I believe they will.  Winter is coming out of the gates fast this season!

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It's highly doubtful we have a back loaded winter around here.  Your going to be in good shape this year.  I think it will make up for the last 2 lousy winters.  You may start plowing end of this month if things verify as I believe they will.  Winter is coming out of the gates fast this season!

Man I sure hope so. This fall has been a torch for nearly all reading this. I know signs are pointing to a pattern change come mid-late month,, but the 6zGFS seems to say otherwise. What did the Euro weeklies look like last week?? ( I really do not know, but assume they were warm because no one posted them). *** edit *** I didn't see your map Tom when I wrote earlier. it does seem to be being shunted further back into NOV, but I will it take it , especially over last year.)

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Saw this tweet from Ryan Maue indicating the newly upgraded ECMWF monthlies indicate a cold second half of November.  Check out those anomolies smack dab centered over the central CONUS.

 

One run of the Euro-Para? I hope it's indeed onto something. It's giving me flash-backs of 15ºF afternoon temps in Frankenmuth on Thanksgiving Day of 2005. Talk about an early cold wave, that one qualified. Didn't come with much snow though. We need the cold + systems. Cold without them is, well, just really cold!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gorgeous day shaping up today. Yard work for sure. Maybe I will light the fire outside tonight as temps dip into the 40s ahead of a coldfront. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Saw this tweet from Ryan Maue indicating the newly upgraded ECMWF monthlies indicate a cold second half of November.  Check out those anomolies smack dab centered over the central CONUS.

 

And to go along with your map, JB looked up Nov 1897 which followed a very torchy October in which Spokane's old rainfall record was broken. Voila! a serious flip in that Nov/Dec happened:

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I swear, outside feels like its May. Unbelievable. Absolutely gorgeous. :)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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